经济波动、金融发展与工业企业技术进步模式的转变
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摘要
技术创新能力实现由"跟踪"为主向"并行"、"领跑"为主转变是党的十八大以来中国政府一直强调的科技发展战略。本文扩展了Aghion等人的建模思路,在理论分析的基础上,基于2005—2010年中国省际大中型工业企业数据和2011—2014年中国省际规模以上工业企业数据的经验分析,研究了经济波动对技术进步模式选择的影响,以及金融发展在其中所起的作用。研究发现,经济波动通过机会成本效应和预期收益效应两种机制对技术进步模式产生影响,不同类型的经济波动和不同持续时间长度的经济波动所产生的影响也不同。发展通过影响预期收益效应进而影响经济波动与技术进步模式的关系;如果技术差距不同,金融发展对预期收益效应的影响也会不同。进一步研究发现,2010年前后为我国技术进步模式由技术引进为主向自主创新为主的转折点;金融发展对经济波动与技术进步模式关系的影响存在时间上的差异性和空间(区域)上的差异性。本文认为可以借助本轮经济增速持续下行、经济波动加剧,同时结合金融资源对自主创新偏向性支持的手段来促进技术进步模式由以技术引进为主型向以自主创新为主型的成功转换。
Technological progress is critical to the sustained growth of a country or region's economy.How to promote technological progress better and faster is an important topic that people pay close attention to.Technological progress is driven mainly by two means:independent innovation and technology import.One of the main signs of a latecomer country transformed into a developed country may be that the pattern of technological progress has transformed from technology import to independent innovation.Thus,the Chinese government has emphasized realizing the change in technological innovation ability from"tracking"to"parallel"and"leading"in its science and technology development strategy in recent years.On the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper extends the idea of Aghion et al.and studies the impact of economic volatility on the technological progress mode and how financial development affects this impact by empirical analysis based on data for large and medium-sized industrial enterprises in China during 2005—2010 and data for industrial enterprises above a designated size in China during 2011—2014.We find that economic volatility affects the mode of technological progress by two mechanisms:the opportunity cost effect and the expected return effect.Different types of economic volatility and different durations of economic fluctuations will generate different impacts.Financial development affects the relationship between economic volatility and the mode of technological progress by affecting the expected return effect.If the technology gap is different,the effect of financial development will be different.This paper also finds that the turning point of the technological progress mode appeared around 2010.The influence of financial development on the relationship between economic volatility and technological progress mode varies by time and region.This paper argues that we can realize the successful transformation of the technological progress mode with the help of continued downward economic growth,increased economic volatility,and more financial resources to support independent innovation.Based on our findings,we offer some meaningful policy suggestions.In the current situation,we can promote the transformation of the technological progress model with the help of this round of downward economic growth.We should also accelerate the reform of the financial system,pay attention to the cultivation of the financial system,provide more financial support for independent innovative enterprises,and create conditions for the successful transformation of the mode of technological progress.We should adapt measures to local conditions when we implement innovation-driven strategy and encourage independent innovation.The technical level of each region is different,and there are differences in the technology gap,so we should give full play to the effects of financial development and economic fluctuation on the transformation of technology progress mode in regions or industries in which the level of technology is higher,and we should also pay attention to the introduction of technology means to promote technological progress in regions or industries in which the level of technology is lower.Breaking administrative monopolies and fully stimulating motivation for independent innovation should also be considered.The monopoly status of state-owned enterprises will lead to their unwillingness to innovate.The contribution of this paper is twofold.First,this paper constructs a theoretical model based on Aghion et al.to analyze the influence mechanism of economic fluctuations on the technology progress mode and provide ideas for realizing the transformation of the technology progress mode successfully given China's current economic situation.Second,this paper builds an animal spirit index based on entrepreneur confidence data and then identifies the opportunity cost effect of economic fluctuation on the technology progress model.
Technological progress is critical to the sustained growth of a country or region's economy.How to promote technological progress better and faster is an important topic that people pay close attention to.Technological progress is driven mainly by two means:independent innovation and technology import.One of the main signs of a latecomer country transformed into a developed country may be that the pattern of technological progress has transformed from technology import to independent innovation.Thus,the Chinese government has emphasized realizing the change in technological innovation ability from"tracking"to"parallel"and"leading"in its science and technology development strategy in recent years.On the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper extends the idea of Aghion et al.and studies the impact of economic volatility on the technological progress mode and how financial development affects this impact by empirical analysis based on data for large and medium-sized industrial enterprises in China during 2005—2010 and data for industrial enterprises above a designated size in China during 2011—2014.We find that economic volatility affects the mode of technological progress by two mechanisms:the opportunity cost effect and the expected return effect.Different types of economic volatility and different durations of economic fluctuations will generate different impacts.Financial development affects the relationship between economic volatility and the mode of technological progress by affecting the expected return effect.If the technology gap is different,the effect of financial development will be different.This paper also finds that the turning point of the technological progress mode appeared around 2010.The influence of financial development on the relationship between economic volatility and technological progress mode varies by time and region.This paper argues that we can realize the successful transformation of the technological progress mode with the help of continued downward economic growth,increased economic volatility,and more financial resources to support independent innovation.Based on our findings,we offer some meaningful policy suggestions.In the current situation,we can promote the transformation of the technological progress model with the help of this round of downward economic growth.We should also accelerate the reform of the financial system,pay attention to the cultivation of the financial system,provide more financial support for independent innovative enterprises,and create conditions for the successful transformation of the mode of technological progress.We should adapt measures to local conditions when we implement innovation-driven strategy and encourage independent innovation.The technical level of each region is different,and there are differences in the technology gap,so we should give full play to the effects of financial development and economic fluctuation on the transformation of technology progress mode in regions or industries in which the level of technology is higher,and we should also pay attention to the introduction of technology means to promote technological progress in regions or industries in which the level of technology is lower.Breaking administrative monopolies and fully stimulating motivation for independent innovation should also be considered.The monopoly status of state-owned enterprises will lead to their unwillingness to innovate.The contribution of this paper is twofold.First,this paper constructs a theoretical model based on Aghion et al.to analyze the influence mechanism of economic fluctuations on the technology progress mode and provide ideas for realizing the transformation of the technology progress mode successfully given China's current economic situation.Second,this paper builds an animal spirit index based on entrepreneur confidence data and then identifies the opportunity cost effect of economic fluctuation on the technology progress model.
引文
程惠芳、文武、胡晨光,2015:《研发强度、经济周期与长期经济增长》,《统计研究》第1期。
陈彦斌、唐诗磊,2009:《信心、动物精神与中国宏观经济波动》,《金融研究》第9期。
龚刚、黄春媛、张前程等,2013:《从技术引进走向自主创新---论新阶段下的中国经济增长方式》,《经济学动态》第5期。
刘小鲁,2011:《知识产权保护、自主研发比重与后发国家的技术进步》,《管理世界》第10期。
陆剑、柳剑平、程时雄,2014:《中国与OECD主要国家工业行业技术差距的动态测度》,《世界经济》第9期。
宋林、郭玉晶,2016:《创新驱动发展战略下中国技术进步的路径选择》,《经济学家》第4期。
唐绍祥,2011:《中国民营企业技术进步的路径选择---基于民营大中型工业企业的实证分析》,《中国软科学》第5期。
王青、冯宗宪、侯晓辉,2010:《自主创新与技术引进对我国技术创新影响的比较研究》,《科学学与科学技术管理》第6期。
吴延兵,2008:《自主研发、技术引进与生产率---基于中国地区工业的实证研究》,《经济研究》第8期。
易先忠、张亚斌、刘智勇,2007:《自主创新、国外模仿与后发国知识产权保护》,《世界经济》第3期。
余泳泽、张先轸,2015:《要素禀赋、适宜性创新模式选择与全要素生产率提升》,《管理世界》第9期。
Aghion,P.,and Howitt,P.,1992,“A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction”,Econometrica,60(2),323-351.
Aghion,P.,Angeletos,G.M.,Banerjee,A.,and Manova,K.,2010,“Volatility and Growth:Credit Constraints and the Composition of Investment”,Journal of Monetary Economics,57(3),246-265.
Aghion,P.,Askenazy,P.,Berman,N.,Cette,G.,and Eymard,L.,2012,“Credit Constraints and the Cyclicality of R&DInvestment:Evidence from France”,Journal of the European Economic Association,10(5),1001-1024.
Backus,D.K.,and Kehoe,P.J.,1992,“International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles”,American Economic Review,82(4),864-888.
Barro,R.,and Sala-I-Martin,X.,1997,“Technological Diffusion,Convergence,and Growth”,Journal of Economic Growth,2(1),1-26.
Barsky,R.,and Sims,E.,2012,“Information,Animal Spirits,and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence”,American Economic Review,102(4),1343-1377.
Chauvet,M.,and Guo,J.T.,2003,“Sunspots,Animal Spirits,and Economic Fluctuations”,Macroeconomic Dynamics,7(1),140-169.
Chen,Y.,and Puttitanun,T.,2005,“Intellectual Property Rights and Innovation in Developing Countries”,Journal of Development Economics,78(2),474-493.
Doraszelski,U.,and Jaumandreu,J.,2013,“R&D and Productivity:Estimating Endogenous Productivity”,Review of Economic Studies,80(4),1338-1383.
Griffith,R.,and Huergo,E.,2006,“Innovation and Productivity across Four European Countries”,Oxford Review of Economic Policy,22(4),483-498.
Grilliches,Z.,1986,“Productivity,R&D,and Basic Research at the Firm Level in the 1970’s”,American Economic Review,76(1),141-154.
Hall,B.,Lotti,F.,and Mairesse,J.,2009,“Innovation and Productivity in SMEs:Empirical Evidence for Italy”,Small Business Economics,33(1),13-33.
Harrison,S.G.,and Weder,M.,2006,“Did Sunspot Forces cause the Great Depression?”,Journal of Monetary Economics,53(7),1327-1339.
Ouyang,M.,2011,“On the Cyclicality of R&D”,Review of Economics and Statistics,93(93),542-553.
(1)理论上还可以有第三种技术进步模式:自主创新和技术引进并重(并举)。但本文把这种并重模式视为这两种基本模式相互转换过程中的一个过渡模式。
(1)下文中各项回归结果也基本采用这种形式进行稳健性检验,不再赘述。
(2)限于篇幅PW法回归结果均未报告,有兴趣的读者可向作者索取,以下各表同。
(1)例如2008年和2009年我国大中型工业企业引进国外技术的费用分别占规模以上工业企业引进国外技术费用的94%和93%,R&D支出分别占规模以上工业企业研发支出的87%和85%。
(2)限于篇幅,此处检验结果及分析省略,有兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(1)限于篇幅,此处省略估算动物精神的具体步骤,有兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
陈彦斌、唐诗磊,2009:《信心、动物精神与中国宏观经济波动》,《金融研究》第9期。
龚刚、黄春媛、张前程等,2013:《从技术引进走向自主创新---论新阶段下的中国经济增长方式》,《经济学动态》第5期。
刘小鲁,2011:《知识产权保护、自主研发比重与后发国家的技术进步》,《管理世界》第10期。
陆剑、柳剑平、程时雄,2014:《中国与OECD主要国家工业行业技术差距的动态测度》,《世界经济》第9期。
宋林、郭玉晶,2016:《创新驱动发展战略下中国技术进步的路径选择》,《经济学家》第4期。
唐绍祥,2011:《中国民营企业技术进步的路径选择---基于民营大中型工业企业的实证分析》,《中国软科学》第5期。
王青、冯宗宪、侯晓辉,2010:《自主创新与技术引进对我国技术创新影响的比较研究》,《科学学与科学技术管理》第6期。
吴延兵,2008:《自主研发、技术引进与生产率---基于中国地区工业的实证研究》,《经济研究》第8期。
易先忠、张亚斌、刘智勇,2007:《自主创新、国外模仿与后发国知识产权保护》,《世界经济》第3期。
余泳泽、张先轸,2015:《要素禀赋、适宜性创新模式选择与全要素生产率提升》,《管理世界》第9期。
Aghion,P.,and Howitt,P.,1992,“A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction”,Econometrica,60(2),323-351.
Aghion,P.,Angeletos,G.M.,Banerjee,A.,and Manova,K.,2010,“Volatility and Growth:Credit Constraints and the Composition of Investment”,Journal of Monetary Economics,57(3),246-265.
Aghion,P.,Askenazy,P.,Berman,N.,Cette,G.,and Eymard,L.,2012,“Credit Constraints and the Cyclicality of R&DInvestment:Evidence from France”,Journal of the European Economic Association,10(5),1001-1024.
Backus,D.K.,and Kehoe,P.J.,1992,“International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles”,American Economic Review,82(4),864-888.
Barro,R.,and Sala-I-Martin,X.,1997,“Technological Diffusion,Convergence,and Growth”,Journal of Economic Growth,2(1),1-26.
Barsky,R.,and Sims,E.,2012,“Information,Animal Spirits,and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence”,American Economic Review,102(4),1343-1377.
Chauvet,M.,and Guo,J.T.,2003,“Sunspots,Animal Spirits,and Economic Fluctuations”,Macroeconomic Dynamics,7(1),140-169.
Chen,Y.,and Puttitanun,T.,2005,“Intellectual Property Rights and Innovation in Developing Countries”,Journal of Development Economics,78(2),474-493.
Doraszelski,U.,and Jaumandreu,J.,2013,“R&D and Productivity:Estimating Endogenous Productivity”,Review of Economic Studies,80(4),1338-1383.
Griffith,R.,and Huergo,E.,2006,“Innovation and Productivity across Four European Countries”,Oxford Review of Economic Policy,22(4),483-498.
Grilliches,Z.,1986,“Productivity,R&D,and Basic Research at the Firm Level in the 1970’s”,American Economic Review,76(1),141-154.
Hall,B.,Lotti,F.,and Mairesse,J.,2009,“Innovation and Productivity in SMEs:Empirical Evidence for Italy”,Small Business Economics,33(1),13-33.
Harrison,S.G.,and Weder,M.,2006,“Did Sunspot Forces cause the Great Depression?”,Journal of Monetary Economics,53(7),1327-1339.
Ouyang,M.,2011,“On the Cyclicality of R&D”,Review of Economics and Statistics,93(93),542-553.
(1)理论上还可以有第三种技术进步模式:自主创新和技术引进并重(并举)。但本文把这种并重模式视为这两种基本模式相互转换过程中的一个过渡模式。
(1)下文中各项回归结果也基本采用这种形式进行稳健性检验,不再赘述。
(2)限于篇幅PW法回归结果均未报告,有兴趣的读者可向作者索取,以下各表同。
(1)例如2008年和2009年我国大中型工业企业引进国外技术的费用分别占规模以上工业企业引进国外技术费用的94%和93%,R&D支出分别占规模以上工业企业研发支出的87%和85%。
(2)限于篇幅,此处检验结果及分析省略,有兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(1)限于篇幅,此处省略估算动物精神的具体步骤,有兴趣的读者可向作者索取。