基于云理论的评估模型和方法
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摘要
提出一种基于云理论的评估方法,首先利用程度分析法量化定性标度,并在此基础上建立评估标准的云模型.随后根据底层指标的实测值和专家评分计算云参数,并结合指标权重逐层向上进行云运算,得到评估样本的云参数.基于此生成大量样本点,代入评估标准的正向云发生器中计算确定度均值,作为最终评级的依据.相比之下,取评估样本期望计算确定度的方法没有考虑评估的不确定性,当评估不确定性较强时可能导致确定度的计算结果失真.最后以斜拉索耐久性评估为例,验证了方法的有效性和可操作性,为解决评估问题提供了一种更科学的手段.
An evaluation method based on cloud theory is proposed as follows: firstly,the degree analysis method is used to quantify the qualitative scales so that the cloud model of evaluation criteria can be established; then the index cloud parameters can be calculated according to the normalized measurement range and expert scores to obtain the cloud parameters of the evaluation samples by cloud computing according to the weight of the indexes from layer to layer; finally,a large number of sample points can be generated to calculate the mean value of certainty in the normal cloud generator to be the basis of the final rating. Compared with the evaluation method mentioned above,the certainty degree calculated from the value of expectation of samples can be distorted when there exists a lot of uncertainty. Taking the durability evaluation of stay cables as an example,the effectiveness and operability of the cloud theory method are verified,which proved to be a more scientific method for assessment problem.
An evaluation method based on cloud theory is proposed as follows: firstly,the degree analysis method is used to quantify the qualitative scales so that the cloud model of evaluation criteria can be established; then the index cloud parameters can be calculated according to the normalized measurement range and expert scores to obtain the cloud parameters of the evaluation samples by cloud computing according to the weight of the indexes from layer to layer; finally,a large number of sample points can be generated to calculate the mean value of certainty in the normal cloud generator to be the basis of the final rating. Compared with the evaluation method mentioned above,the certainty degree calculated from the value of expectation of samples can be distorted when there exists a lot of uncertainty. Taking the durability evaluation of stay cables as an example,the effectiveness and operability of the cloud theory method are verified,which proved to be a more scientific method for assessment problem.
引文
[1] Zhou Y L,Figueiredo E,Maia N,et al. Damage detection in structures using a transmissibility-based Mahalanobis distance[J]. Structural Control&Health Monitoring, 2015,22(10):1209-1222.
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[3] Xie G Y,Yue Z. Seismic safety evaluation for mountainous highway bridge based on risk matrix[J]. Advanced Materials Research, 2011,255:4212-4216.
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[5] Wang G,Xu C,Li D. Generic normal cloud mode[J].Information Science,2014,280(1):1-15.
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[7] Yang J,Liu H,Yu X,et al. Entropy-cloud model of heavy metals pollution assessment in farmland soils of mining areas[J]. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 2016,25(3):1315-1322.
[8]黄志伟,黄侨,任远.基于程度分析的中小桥梁评估方法[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2012,42(2):358-362.(Huang Zhi-wei,Huang Qiao,Ren Yuan. Assessment method of existing bridge with mid-small span based on degree analysis theory[J]. Journal of Southeast University(Nature Science Edition),2012,42(2):358-362.)
[9]彭怀德,刘敦文,马静,等.基于云模型的长时停工隧道衬砌结构质量评价[J].安全与环境学报,2017,17(4):1232-1236.(Peng Huai-de,Liu Dun-wen,Ma Jing,et al. Quality degrading evaluation for the lining structure of the longtime shutdown tunnels based on a cloud model[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment,2017,17(4):1232-1236.)
[10] Saaty T L. Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process[J]. International Journal of Services Sciences, 2008,1(1):83-98.
[11] Birkenmaier M,Narayanan R. Fatigue resistance of large high tensile steel stay tendons[R]. Bergamo:Springer,1982:663-672.
[2] Bao Y Q,Xia Y,Li H,et al. Data fusion-based structural damage detection under varying temperature conditions[J].International Journal of Structural Stability&Dynamics,2013, 12(6):67-75.
[3] Xie G Y,Yue Z. Seismic safety evaluation for mountainous highway bridge based on risk matrix[J]. Advanced Materials Research, 2011,255:4212-4216.
[4] Dong W,Zeng D,Singh V P,et al. A cloud model-based approach for water quality assessment[J]. Environmental Research, 2016,149:113-121.
[5] Wang G,Xu C,Li D. Generic normal cloud mode[J].Information Science,2014,280(1):1-15.
[6] Zhang L M,Wu X G,Ding L Y, et al. A novel model for risk assessment of adjacent buildings in tunneling environments[J]. Building and Environment, 2013,65:185-194.
[7] Yang J,Liu H,Yu X,et al. Entropy-cloud model of heavy metals pollution assessment in farmland soils of mining areas[J]. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 2016,25(3):1315-1322.
[8]黄志伟,黄侨,任远.基于程度分析的中小桥梁评估方法[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2012,42(2):358-362.(Huang Zhi-wei,Huang Qiao,Ren Yuan. Assessment method of existing bridge with mid-small span based on degree analysis theory[J]. Journal of Southeast University(Nature Science Edition),2012,42(2):358-362.)
[9]彭怀德,刘敦文,马静,等.基于云模型的长时停工隧道衬砌结构质量评价[J].安全与环境学报,2017,17(4):1232-1236.(Peng Huai-de,Liu Dun-wen,Ma Jing,et al. Quality degrading evaluation for the lining structure of the longtime shutdown tunnels based on a cloud model[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment,2017,17(4):1232-1236.)
[10] Saaty T L. Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process[J]. International Journal of Services Sciences, 2008,1(1):83-98.
[11] Birkenmaier M,Narayanan R. Fatigue resistance of large high tensile steel stay tendons[R]. Bergamo:Springer,1982:663-672.