基于多国面板数据对通货膨胀率和经济增长率关系的探究
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摘要
稳增长和低通胀的结合是大多数国家宏观经济政策的核心目标,这二者的关系自然成为经济学家兴趣和争论的焦点。尽管相关的研究和争论仍在继续,但并没有产生令人们广泛信服的结论。实际上,高通胀对经济增长率的影响还有一条重要的途径:高通胀往往伴随着更高的波动性,在理性预期的非完全性、价格粘性的市场条件下,通胀率的高波动性使准确预期更困难,因而永久性地改变了人们的消费、储蓄、投资等经济行为,降低了资本存量,进而损害了经济增长率。总而言之,在现实经济是非完全市场的条件下,并非高通胀本身而是随之而来的高波动性损害了经济增长。
The combination of steady growth and low inflation is the core objective of most of the state's macroeconomic policies,so the relationship between them naturally becomes the core of economists' interest and debate.Although related research and debate continues,it still has not produced widely convincing conclusion.In fact,there is another way for the inflation to effect the economy growth,high inflation is often accompanied by higher volatility,in the imperfect market(incompletely rational expectation and price stickiness,etc.)the accompanying high volatility of inflation makes accurate expectation more difficult,and therefore permanently changes people's consumption,savings,investment and other economic behavior,further reduces the capital stock,at last impairs economic growth rate.In other words,in the non-perfect market real economy,not the high inflation itself,but rather the ensuing high uncertainty undermines economic growth.
The combination of steady growth and low inflation is the core objective of most of the state's macroeconomic policies,so the relationship between them naturally becomes the core of economists' interest and debate.Although related research and debate continues,it still has not produced widely convincing conclusion.In fact,there is another way for the inflation to effect the economy growth,high inflation is often accompanied by higher volatility,in the imperfect market(incompletely rational expectation and price stickiness,etc.)the accompanying high volatility of inflation makes accurate expectation more difficult,and therefore permanently changes people's consumption,savings,investment and other economic behavior,further reduces the capital stock,at last impairs economic growth rate.In other words,in the non-perfect market real economy,not the high inflation itself,but rather the ensuing high uncertainty undermines economic growth.
引文
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[18]A.Carlson.John.A Study of Price Forecasts[J].Annals of Economic and Social Measurement,1977,(6):27-56.
[19]Cukierman,Alex,and Paul Wachtel.Differential Inflationary Expectations and the Variability of the Rate of Inflation[J].America Economic Review,1979,(9):595-609.
[20]E.Logue.Dennis,Thomas Willett.A Note on the Relation between the Rate and Variability of Inflation[J].Economic,1976,(3):151-158.
[21]E.Logue.Dennis,J.Richard Sweeney.Inflation and Real Growth:Some Empirical Results[J].Journal of Money,Credit,and Banking,1981,(9):497-501.
[22]B.Taylor.John.Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts[J].Journal of Political Economy,1980,(88):1-23.
[23]F.Engle.Robert.Estimates of the Variance of U.S.Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model[J].Journal of Money,Credit,and Banking,1983,(15):286-301.
[24]A.Holland.Steven.Does Higher Inflation Lead to More Inflation Uncertainty?[J].Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Economic Review,1984,(2):15-26.
[25]F.Cosimano Thomas,Dennis W.Jansen.Estimates of the Variance of U.S.Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model:Comment.Journal of Money,Credit,and Banking[J],1988,(8):409-21.
[26]W.Jansen.Dennis.Does Inflation Uncertainty Affect Output Growth?Further Evidence[J].Fzedera Rleserve Bank of St.Louis Economic Review1989,(7/8):43-54.
[27]赵留彦,王一鸣,蔡婧.中国通胀水平与通胀不确定性:马尔可夫域变分析[J].经济研究,2005,(8):60-72.
[28]苏梽芳,赵昕东.中国长期、短期通货膨胀不确定性与通货膨胀的关系[J].经济评论,2009,(5):12-17.
[29]印重,刘金全,马昕田.我国通货膨胀不确定性与经济波动的动态相关性分析[J].社会科学辑刊,2012,(6):135-139.
[30]Romer,P.M.Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth[J].Journal of Political Economy,1986,(10):1002-1037.
[31]Romer,P.M.Endogenous Technological Change[J].Journal of Political Economy,1990,(10):S71-S102.
[32]王祥兵,严广乐,杨卫忠.中国通货膨胀的波动性与杠杆效应研究——基于条件异方差模型的实证分析[J].财经理论与实践,2012,(2):8-13.
①***表示1%的显著水平,*表示10%的显著水平,以下均相同。
[2]卡尔·J·汉密尔顿.价格和经济进步[J].经济史杂志,1952,(13):349.
[3]莫里斯·阿莱.无通货膨胀的经济增长[M].北京:北京经济学院出版社,1990.
[4]Tobin.Money and economic growth[J].Econometrica,1965,(32):671-684.
[5]Taylor.J.B.On the relation between the variability of inflation and the average inflation rate,in the cost and consequences of inflation,edited by Brunner K.and Meltzer[M].A.H.Amsterdam:North Holland,1981.
[6]Dudley Seers.A theory of inflation and growth in underdeveloped economics based on the experience of Latin America[R].Oxford Economic Papers,1992.
[7]R.Campos.Two views of inflation in Latin America[M].Latin America Issues,1961.
[8]G.Harberger.Amold.The inflation problem in Latin America[R].A report prepared for Buenos Aires,1996.
[9]Woo S.Jung,Peyton J.Marshall.Inflation and Economic Growth:Some International Evidence on Structuralist and Distortionist Positions[J].Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,1986,(2):227-232.
[10]E.Lucas.Robert.Some international evidence on output-inflation trade-offs[J].Econometrica,1976,(43):151-58.
[11]Allais,Maurice.Growth and inflation:a reply to the observations of the discussants[J].Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,OhioStaet University Press,1969,(3):441-462.
[12]D.Romer.Advanced Macroeconomics[M].New York:Mc Graw-Hill,1996.
[13]赫尔穆特·弗里希.现代通货膨胀理论[M].北京:中国金融出版社,1989.
[14]Michael Sarel.Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth[R].International Monetary Found Working Paper,1995.
[15]Mohsin S.Khan,Abdelhak S.Snhadji.Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth[P].IMF Staff Papers,2001,(48).
[16]Okun.Arthur.The Mirage of Steady Inflation[J].Brooking Paper on Economi-Acctivity,1971,(2):485-498.
[17]Martin Evans.Discovering the Link Between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty[J].Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,1991,(23):169-184.
[18]A.Carlson.John.A Study of Price Forecasts[J].Annals of Economic and Social Measurement,1977,(6):27-56.
[19]Cukierman,Alex,and Paul Wachtel.Differential Inflationary Expectations and the Variability of the Rate of Inflation[J].America Economic Review,1979,(9):595-609.
[20]E.Logue.Dennis,Thomas Willett.A Note on the Relation between the Rate and Variability of Inflation[J].Economic,1976,(3):151-158.
[21]E.Logue.Dennis,J.Richard Sweeney.Inflation and Real Growth:Some Empirical Results[J].Journal of Money,Credit,and Banking,1981,(9):497-501.
[22]B.Taylor.John.Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts[J].Journal of Political Economy,1980,(88):1-23.
[23]F.Engle.Robert.Estimates of the Variance of U.S.Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model[J].Journal of Money,Credit,and Banking,1983,(15):286-301.
[24]A.Holland.Steven.Does Higher Inflation Lead to More Inflation Uncertainty?[J].Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Economic Review,1984,(2):15-26.
[25]F.Cosimano Thomas,Dennis W.Jansen.Estimates of the Variance of U.S.Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model:Comment.Journal of Money,Credit,and Banking[J],1988,(8):409-21.
[26]W.Jansen.Dennis.Does Inflation Uncertainty Affect Output Growth?Further Evidence[J].Fzedera Rleserve Bank of St.Louis Economic Review1989,(7/8):43-54.
[27]赵留彦,王一鸣,蔡婧.中国通胀水平与通胀不确定性:马尔可夫域变分析[J].经济研究,2005,(8):60-72.
[28]苏梽芳,赵昕东.中国长期、短期通货膨胀不确定性与通货膨胀的关系[J].经济评论,2009,(5):12-17.
[29]印重,刘金全,马昕田.我国通货膨胀不确定性与经济波动的动态相关性分析[J].社会科学辑刊,2012,(6):135-139.
[30]Romer,P.M.Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth[J].Journal of Political Economy,1986,(10):1002-1037.
[31]Romer,P.M.Endogenous Technological Change[J].Journal of Political Economy,1990,(10):S71-S102.
[32]王祥兵,严广乐,杨卫忠.中国通货膨胀的波动性与杠杆效应研究——基于条件异方差模型的实证分析[J].财经理论与实践,2012,(2):8-13.
①***表示1%的显著水平,*表示10%的显著水平,以下均相同。