省际人口迁移与制造业转移空间交互响应研究
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摘要
基于2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年人口普查与1%人口抽样调查数据以及相关年度制造业统计数据,利用重心模型和地理探测器对2000年以来的不同类型制造业转移空间格局、人口流动空间格局及其二者相互作用关系进行分析。研究发现:1 2000年以来特别是2005年之后中国制造业呈现出明显转移态势,但不同类型制造业转移幅度和空间区域具有明显差异,能源密集型、技术密集型、资本密集型制造业由东部向中西部转移的空间区域大,劳动密集型产业转移空间还十分有限,仍集中于东部地区。2虽然人口迁移的整体格局变化不大,仍是"中间低、周边高"的格局,但是人口迁移的空间特征正在趋于弱化,中西部地区分享的迁入人口份额在不断提高。3制造业重心与人口迁移重心变动轨迹呈现出"偏离-趋同"关系,人口迁移滞后于产业转移的效应已逐渐消失,人口与产业的空间匹配程度趋于提高。4地理探测器定量识别人口迁移与制造业转移之间的空间关系发现,人口迁移格局变化对制造业空间转移的响应程度较制造业转移对人口迁移格局变化的响应程度高。
Based on the data of censuses and 1% sample survey in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 and related annual manufacturing statistics, this article illustrates the temporal and spatial patterns of manufacturing transfer and migration and analyzes the interaction between migration and manufacturing transfer by introducing gravity center model and Geo-detector. The results show that: 1) There has being a significant trend of manufacturing industry transfer since 2000, especially after 2005, characterized by differences in transfer scales and spatial areas among manufacturing industries. Energy-intensive, technology-intensive and capital-intensive manufacturing industries present clear transfer trend with broad spatial areas from the coastal to the inland area, in contrast, the transfer trend of labor-intensive industries which are concentrated in the coastal is uncertain yet.2) There is little change in the migration pattern featured by minus net-migration in the middle of China and plus in some areas from eastern and western China, but the feature is less prominent with the bigger share of immigrants in the inland area. 3) The change tracks of both manufacturing industry and migration gravity center shows a relationship characterized by deviation and convergence. The migration lagging-behind effect compared with the industrial transfer has gradually disappeared and the spatial population-industry matching degree tends to improve. 4) The Geo-detector is applied to quantitatively identifing the spatial relationship between migration and manufacturing transfer. It is found that the change of migration pattern is more responsive to the spatial transfer, but the latter is less responsive to the former.
Based on the data of censuses and 1% sample survey in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 and related annual manufacturing statistics, this article illustrates the temporal and spatial patterns of manufacturing transfer and migration and analyzes the interaction between migration and manufacturing transfer by introducing gravity center model and Geo-detector. The results show that: 1) There has being a significant trend of manufacturing industry transfer since 2000, especially after 2005, characterized by differences in transfer scales and spatial areas among manufacturing industries. Energy-intensive, technology-intensive and capital-intensive manufacturing industries present clear transfer trend with broad spatial areas from the coastal to the inland area, in contrast, the transfer trend of labor-intensive industries which are concentrated in the coastal is uncertain yet.2) There is little change in the migration pattern featured by minus net-migration in the middle of China and plus in some areas from eastern and western China, but the feature is less prominent with the bigger share of immigrants in the inland area. 3) The change tracks of both manufacturing industry and migration gravity center shows a relationship characterized by deviation and convergence. The migration lagging-behind effect compared with the industrial transfer has gradually disappeared and the spatial population-industry matching degree tends to improve. 4) The Geo-detector is applied to quantitatively identifing the spatial relationship between migration and manufacturing transfer. It is found that the change of migration pattern is more responsive to the spatial transfer, but the latter is less responsive to the former.
引文
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(1)能源密集型产业包括:采掘业、电力热力、燃气及水;劳动密集型产业包括:食品、烟草、纺织、服装、木材、造纸;资本密集型产业包括:石油加工、炼焦、化工、非金属矿物制品、金属冶炼及压延、金属制品、通用专用设备制造业;技术密集型产业包括:交通运输设备、电气机械及器材、通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业、仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业。
[2]范恒山.中部地区承接产业转移有关重大问题研究[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2011.[Fan Hengshan.Some significant issues on industry transfer in central China.Wuhan:Wuhan University Press,2011.]
[3]黄顺魁,王裕瑾,张可云.中国制造业八大区域转移分析--基于偏离-份额分析[J].经济地理,2013,33(12):90-96.[Huang Shunkui,Wang Yujin,Zhang Keyun.The transfer of manufacturing industry among eight regions in China-Based on the idea of shift-share analysis.Economic Geography,2013,33(12):90-96.]
[4]关爱萍,曹亚南.中国制造业产业转移变动趋势:2001-2014[J].经济与管理,2016,30(6):66-72.[Guan Aiping,Cao Yanan.The transfer evolution trend of manufacture industry in China:2001-2014.Economy and Management,2016,30(6):66-72.]
[5]李扬,刘慧,汤青.1985-2010年中国省际人口迁移时空格局特征[J].地理研究,2015,34(6):1135-1148.[Li Yang,Liu Hui,Tang Qing.Spatial-temporal patterns of China's interprovincial migration.Geographical Research,2015,34(6):1135-1148.]
[6]简新华,张建伟.从“民工潮”到“民工荒”--农村剩余劳动力有效转移的制度分析[J].人口研究,2005,29(2):49-55.[Jian Xinhua,Zhang Jianwei.From boom to bust of migrant workers in the cities an institutional analysis.Population Research,2005,29(2):49-55.]
[7]范剑勇,王立军,沈林洁.产业集聚与农村劳动力的跨区域流动[J].管理世界,2004(4):22-29.[Fan Jianyong,Wang Lijun,Shen Linjie.Industrial concentration and the trans-regional flow of rural labor forces.Management World,2004(4):22-29.]
[8]苏华,赵梦园,万劭琨.劳动力流动、产业转移与区域经济协调发展[J].发展研究,2013(6):35-38.[Su Hua,Zhao Mengyuan,Wan Shaokun.Labor migration,industrial transfer and coordinated development of regional economy.Developmental Research,2013(6):35-38.]
[9]山社武,刘志勇,张德生.劳动力自由流动是阻碍传统产业区域转移的根本原因吗?--基于27个产业的实证分析[J].财贸研究,2010,21(5):17-23.[Shan Shewu,Liu Zhiyong,Zhang Desheng.Is free flow of labor the Fundamental reason of hindering traditional industry transfer among regions?-The empirical analysis of 27 industries.Finance and Trade Research,2010,21(5):17-23.]
[10]辜胜阻,孙祥栋,刘江日.推进产业和劳动力“双转移”的战略思考[J].人口研究,2013,37(3):3-10.[Gu Shengzu,Sun Xiangdong,Liu Jiangri.Strategic Considerations in Promoting Industrial Transfer and Return Migration in China.Population Research,2013,37(3):3-10.]
[11]傅允生.产业转移、劳动力回流与区域经济协调发展[J].学术月刊,2013,45(3):75-81.[Fu Yunsheng.Transfer of Industries,Return of Labor Force and Coordinated Development of Regional Economy.Academic Monthly,2013,45(3):75-81.]
[12]刘新争.比较优势、劳动力流动与产业转移[J].经济学家,2012(2):45-50.[Liu Xinzheng.Comparative advantages,labor force flow and industry transfer.Economist,2012(2):45-50.]
[13]樊士德,沈坤荣,朱克朋.中国制造业劳动力转移刚性与产业区际转移--基于核心-边缘模型拓展的数值模拟和经验研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(11):94-108.[Fan Shide,Shen Kunrong,Zhu Kepeng.China’s labor mobility rigidity in manufacturing industry and the inter-regional transfer of industries numerical simulation and empirical research based on developed core-periphery model.China Industrial Economics,2015(11):94-108.]
[14]敖荣军,刘松勤.人口流动与产业集聚互动的机制与过程--理论解读及经验证据[J].湖北社会科学,2016(6):80-85.[Ao Rongjun,Liu Songqin.Mechanism and process of interaction between population migration and industrial agglomeration:Theoretical Interpretation and empirical evidence.Hubei Social Sciences,2016(6):80-85.]
[15]樊士德,姜德波.劳动力流动、产业转移与区域协调发展--基于文献研究的视角[J].产业经济研究,2014(4):103-110.[Fan Shide,Jiang Debo.Research on labor migration,industrial transfer and regional coordinated development:A perspective based on literature research.Industrial Economics Research,2014(4):103-110.]
[16]毛琦梁,董锁成,王菲,等.中国省区间制造业空间格局演变[J].地理学报,2013,68(4):435-448.[Mao Qiliang,Dong Suocheng,Wang Fei et al.Evolving spatial distribution of manufacturing industries in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(4):435-448.]
[17]石敏俊,杨晶,龙文,等.中国制造业分布的地理变迁与驱动因素[J].地理研究,2013,32(9):1708-1720.[Shi Minjun,Yang Jing,Long Wen et al.Changes in geographical distribution of Chinese manufacturing sectors and its driving forces.Geographical Research,2013,32(9):1708-1720.]
[18]原嫄,李国平,孙铁山,等.中国制造业各行业大类的区域转移特征与聚类研究[J].经济地理,2015,35(10):94-102.[Yuan Yuan,Li Guoping,Sun Tieshan et al.Research on regional transfer characteristics and clustering of major industries in Chinese manufacturing industry:An empirical analysis based on data of 2001 and 2009.Economic Geography,2015,35(10):94-102.]
[19]刘红光,王云平,季璐.中国区域间产业转移特征、机理与模式研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(1):102-107.[Liu Hongguang,Wang Yunping,Ji Lu.Characteristics,mechanism and pattern of inter-regional industry transfers in China.Economic Geography,2014,34(1):102-107.]
[20]刘晏伶,冯健.中国人口迁移特征及其影响因素--基于第六次人口普查数据的分析[J].人文地理,2014,29(2):129-137.[Liu Yanling,Feng Jian.Characteristics and impact factors of migration in China:Based on the analysis of the sixth census data.Human Geography,2014,29(2):129-137.]
[21]王桂新,潘泽瀚.中国人口迁移分布的顽健性与胡焕庸线[J].中国人口科学,2016(1):2-13.[Wang Guixin,Pan Zehan.The robustness of China's migration and Heihe-Tengchong line.Chinese Journal of Population Science,2016(1):2-13.]
[22]李学静,张金伟,赵维康.中国省际流动人口对产业集聚的反馈作用分析--基于第六次人口普查数据的实证分析[J].西北人口,2013,34(2):6-9.[Li Xuejing,Zhang Jinwei,Zhao Weikang.The analysis of feedback effect on the floating population in China's inter-provincial industrial agglomeration:An empirical analysis based on the sixth census data.Northwest Population,2013,34(2):6-9.]
[23]涂建军,刘莉,张跃,等.1996-2015年中国经济重心的时空演变轨迹--基于291个地级市数据[J].经济地理,2018,38(2):18-26.[Tu Jianjun,Liu Li,Zhang Yue et al.Temporal and spatial evolution of China's economic center of gravity in 1996-2015-Based on the 291 prefecture-level data.Economic Geography,2018,38(2):18-26.]
[24]樊杰,陶岸君,吕晨.中国经济与人口重心的耦合态势及其对区域发展的影响[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(1):87-95.[Fan Jie,Tao Anjun,Lv Chen.The coupling mechanism of the centroids of economic gravity and population gravity and its effect on the regional gap in China.Progress in Geography,2010,29(1):87-95.]
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