矿产资源型城市工业路径依赖综合诊断方法——基于改进的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数
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摘要
将矿产资源和生态环境要素纳入常规的柯布-道格拉斯(C-D)生产函数,构建资源-环境-经济综合诊断方法,并应用于以煤炭经济为主的鄂尔多斯市.结果显示,2001～2015年该市综合产出弹性为0.8158,呈规模报酬递减趋势;全市工业路径依赖于2001～2007年处于综合边际收益(MR~(KLME))上升过程,2008～2015年进入MR~(KLME)下降过程.工业增长的生态环境成本明显升高,对MR~(KLME)起到显著减降作用,导致MR~(KLME)曲线拐点较常规C-D函数法提前约2～4a.对此,建议加大生态环境保护与治理力度、实施煤炭资源开发总量和强度"双控"等路径依赖破解措施.该方法可纠正由于未考虑资源和环境效应所产生的诊断偏差,有助于更加合理、准确地诊断特定资源型城市工业发展路径依赖的演化特点,并可据此提出有针对性的破解对策.
In this study, firstly, the mineral resources, ecological and environmental elements were taken into account as input factors in the conventional C-D production function. Secondly, the method of resource-environment-economy integrated diagnosis(REEID) was established and then applied. Ordos, Inner Mongolia, whose economy has been dominated by coal extraction and utilization, was the taken as a study case. The results showed that the integrated output elasticity in Ordos from 2001 to 2015 was 0.8158, indicated the decreasing returned to scale. The industrial path dependence was in the integrated marginal revenue(MR~(KLME)) increasing process from 2001 to 2007, then entered the decreasing process from 2008 to 2015. The ecological and environmental cost of industry increased significantly, which reduced MR~(KLME) dramatically and caused the MR~(KLME) curve to show an inflection point decrease 2～4 years earlier than that in the conventional C-D simulation. Hence it was suggested that measures such as "double control" of the total amount and intensity of coal resources development, strengthening ecological environmental protection and governance, etc., should be employed. The REEID method could correct the diagnostic bias caused by neglecting the resource and environmental effects. It was more reasonable and accurate to diagnose the evolutionary characteristics of industrial development path dependence in resource-dependent cities. REEID method was helpful to propose effective development countermeasures.
In this study, firstly, the mineral resources, ecological and environmental elements were taken into account as input factors in the conventional C-D production function. Secondly, the method of resource-environment-economy integrated diagnosis(REEID) was established and then applied. Ordos, Inner Mongolia, whose economy has been dominated by coal extraction and utilization, was the taken as a study case. The results showed that the integrated output elasticity in Ordos from 2001 to 2015 was 0.8158, indicated the decreasing returned to scale. The industrial path dependence was in the integrated marginal revenue(MR~(KLME)) increasing process from 2001 to 2007, then entered the decreasing process from 2008 to 2015. The ecological and environmental cost of industry increased significantly, which reduced MR~(KLME) dramatically and caused the MR~(KLME) curve to show an inflection point decrease 2～4 years earlier than that in the conventional C-D simulation. Hence it was suggested that measures such as "double control" of the total amount and intensity of coal resources development, strengthening ecological environmental protection and governance, etc., should be employed. The REEID method could correct the diagnostic bias caused by neglecting the resource and environmental effects. It was more reasonable and accurate to diagnose the evolutionary characteristics of industrial development path dependence in resource-dependent cities. REEID method was helpful to propose effective development countermeasures.
引文
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[2]吕萍,陈欢欢.基于生态足迹模型的煤炭资源型城市生态承载力评价[J].区域经济评论,2017,33(3):127-133.LV Ping,CHEN Huan-huan.Assessment on ecological carrying capacity of coal resource-based city based on ecological footprint model[J].Regional Economic Review,2017,33(3):127-133.
[3]李楠,张天柱,周北海.2000~2010年中国资源产出率测算[J].中国环境科学,2015,35(1):304-311.LI Nan,ZHANG Tian-zhu,ZHOU Bei-hai.Pilot calculation of resource productivity in China from 2000 to 2010[J].China Environmental Science,2015,35(1):304-311.
[4]张子龙.欠发达地区资源消耗、环境污染与经济发展耦合关系比较研究--以甘肃中部为例[D].兰州:兰州大学资源环境学院,2011.ZHANG Zi-long.Interactions between resource consumption,environmental pollution and economic development in underdeveloped area-case of central Gansu province[D].Lanzhou:College of Earth and Environmental Science Lanzhou University,2011.
[5]Pierson P.Increasing returns,path dependence,and the study of politics[J].American Political Science Review,2000,94(2):251-267.
[6]Romanelli E,Khessina O M.Regional industrial identity:Cluster configurations and economic development[J].Organization Science,2005,16(4):344-358.
[7]卢现祥.新制度经济学[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2003:67.LU Xian-xiang.New institutional economics[M].Wuhan:Wuhan University Press,2003:67.
[8]Martin R.Rethinking Regional Path Dependence:Beyond Lock-in to Evolution[J].Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography,2009,86(1):1-27.
[9]钱勇.国外资源型城市产业转型的实践、理论与启示[J].财经问题研究,2005,27(12):24-29.QIAN Yong.Practice,theory and enlightenment of industrial transformation in foreign resource-based cities[J].Research on Financial and Economic Issues,2005,27(12):24-29.
[10]Redding S.Path Dependence,Endogenous Innovation,and Growth[J].International Economic Review,2002,43(4):1215-1248.
[11]Antonelli C.The economics of path-dependence in industrial organization[J].International Journal of Industrial Organization,1997,15(6):643-675.
[12]张生玲,李跃,酒二科,等.路径依赖、市场进入与资源型城市转型[J].经济理论与经济管理,2016,V36(2):14-27.ZHANG Shen-ling,LI Yue,JIU Er-ke,et al.Path dependence,market entry and transformation of resources-based city[J].Economic Theory and Business Management,2016,V36(2):14-27.
[13]陈琳琳,金凤君,洪辉.东北地区工业基地演化路径研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(9):1378-1387.CHEN Lin-lin,JIN Feng-jun,HONG Hui.The evolution path of the industrial base in northeast China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(9):1378-1387.
[14]Sydow J,Koch J.Organizational path dependence:Opening the black box[J].Academy of Management Review,2009,34(4):689-709.
[15]曹碹玮,马骏.资源型区域的创新--从路径依赖到路径创造[J].中国软科学,2007,22(7):152-157.CAO Xuan-wei,MA jun.Innovation in resource-oriented region:from path dependence to path creation[J].China Soft Science,2007,22(7):152-157.
[16]Burgelman R A.Strategy as Vector and the Inertia of Coevolutionary Lock-in[J].Administrative Science Quarterly,2002,47(2):325-357.
[17]Garud R,Karn?e P.Path creation as a process of mindful deviation[R].Mahwah:Lawrence Earlbaum Associates,2001.
[18]刘洋,金凤君.东北地区产业结构演变的历史路径与机理[J].经济地理,2009,29(3):431-436.LIU Yang,JIN Feng-jun.The historical path and mechanism for industrial structure evolvement in northeast China[J].Economic Geography,2009,29(3):431-436.
[19]郭爱君,胡安军,王祥兵.资源型经济区产业路径依赖的形成机制、特性与破解[J].经济问题探索,2017,17(10):73-79.GUO Ai-jun,HU An-jun,WANG Xiang-bin.Formation mechanism,characteristics and solution of industrial path dependence in resource-based economic zone[J].Inquiry Into Economic Issues,2017,17(10):73-79.
[20]景普秋.煤炭资源型区域经济发展方式转变及其路径选择--以山西省为例[J].煤炭经济研究,2011,31(9):4-10.JING Pu-qiu.The transformation of coal resource-based regional economic development mode and its path choice-taking Shanxi province as an example[J].Coal Economic Research,2011,31(9):4-10.
[21]杨俊生,杨玉梅.资源型区域经济结构调整与路径依赖--以云南为例[J].经济研究导刊,2010,618):111-112.YANG Jun-sheng,YANG Yu-mei.Resource-based regional economic structure adjustment and path dependence:a case study of Yunnan province[J].Economic Research Guide,2010,6(18):111-112.
[22]王晓蕊,李江苏.基于偏离份额法的河南省资源型城市转型分析[J].资源开发与市场,2017,33(9):1084-1089.WANG Xiao-rui,LI Jiangsu.Transformation of resource-based cities in Henan province based on shift share method[J].Resources Development&Market,2017,33(9):1084-1089.
[23]马世骏,王如松.社会-经济-自然复合生态系统[J].生态学报,1984,4(1):3-11.MA Shi-jun,WANG Ru-song.The social-economic-natural complex ecosystem[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,1984,4(1):3-11.
[24]Douglas P H.The Cobb-Douglas production function once again:its history,its testing,and some new empirical values[J].Journal of Political Economy,1976,84(5):903-915.
[25]沈大军,王浩,杨小柳,等.工业用水的数量经济分析[J].水利学报,2000,31(8):27-31.SHEN Da-jun,WANG Hao,YANG Xiao-liu,et al.The econometric analysis of industrial water use[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2000,31(8):27-31.
[26]Gylfason T,Zoega G.Natural resources and economic growth:the role of investment[C]//Reykjavík:DEGIT Conference Papers,2004:598-512.
[27]高天明.我国资源型城市界定及发展特征研究[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京)经济管理学院,2010.GAO Tian-ming.Research on definition of our resource-based cities and their development feature[D].Beijing:School of Economics and Management China University Of Geosciences,2010.
[28]Meyer P B,Williams R H,Yount K R.Contaminated land:reclamation,redevelopment and reuse in the United States and the European Union[M].Camberley:Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd,1995:84-89.
[29]吴钢,魏东,周政达,等.我国大型煤炭基地建设的生态恢复技术研究综述[J].生态学报,2014,34(11):2812-2820.WU Gang,WEI Dong,ZHOU Zheng-da,et al.A summary of study on ecological restoration technology of large coal bases construction in China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2014,34(11):2812-2820.
[30]Stiff K.Cumulative effects assessment and sustainability:diamond mining in the Slave Geological Province[D].Waterloo:University of Waterloo,2001.
[31]陈吉宁.五大区域重点产业发展战略环境评价[M].北京:中国环境出版社,2013:31-36.CHEN Ji-ning.Strategic Environmental assessment of key industry development in the five mega-regions of China[M].Beijing:China Environmental Science Press,2013:31-36.
[32]王金南,逯元堂,周劲松,等.基于GDP的中国资源环境基尼系数分析[J].中国环境科学,2006,26(1):111-115.WANG Jin-nan,LU Yuan-tang,ZHOU Jin-song,et al.Analysis of China resource-environment Gini coefficient based on GDP[J].China Environmental Science,2006,26(1):111-115.
[33]孙涛,杨志峰.河口生态系统恢复评价指标体系研究及其应用[J].中国环境科学,2004,24(3):126-129.SUN Tao,YANG Zhi-feng.Studies on the evaluating index system for estuarine ecosystem restoration and its application[J].China Environmental Science,2004,24(3):126-129.
[34]Dinda S.Environmental kuznets curve hypothesis:a survey[j].ecological economics,2004,49(4):431-455.
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