近54年博州地区低云量变化特征及影响因素分析
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摘要
选取新疆博州地区4个气象站1960—2013年逐月的气象数据,通过线性拟合、Mann-Kendall突变检验、小波分析、相对贡献率和敏感系数分析方法,分析近54年来该地区的低云量变化特征及与其他气候因子的关系。结果表明,近54年博州地区低云量呈明显上升趋势,上升幅度约为1.2%/10 a,多年平均值为22.57%,且序列的正持续性较强;夏季的低云量最低,为20.47%,春季最高,为24.17%;全年低云量从在2001年发生突变性增加;春季和夏季低云量均值不存在突变性增加,秋季和冬季低云量分别于1999和1989年发生突变性增加;低云量演变过程中存在着8～9和25～26年尺度的周期变化规律;8年的时间尺度是低云量变化的第1主周期,14年的时间尺度为低云量变化的第2周期;相对湿度对低云量具有最高的相对贡献率,达51.3%,而降水量对低云量的相对贡献率最小,仅为6.1%,降水量与低云量的相关性最高,相关系数达0.67(P<0.01),平均气温的相关系数最低,仅为0.29(P<0.05)。
The meteorological data of 4 meteorological stations in Bozhou area of Xinjiang from 1960 to 2013 were selected,the characteristics of low cloud cover and its relationship with other climatic factors in the past 54 years were analyzed by linear fitting,Mann-Kendall mutation test,wavelet analysis,relative contribution rate and sensitivity coefficient analysis method.The results showed that the low cloud cover in Bozhou area had shown an obvious upward trend in the past 54 years,with an increase of about 1.2%/10 a,with an average of 22.57% for many years,and the sequence had a strong positive sustainability;the lowest amount of low cloudiness in summer was 20.47%,and the highest amount in spring was 24.17%.The annual low cloud volume increased from 2001;there was no increase in the mean value of low cloud cover in spring and summer,and the increase in the amount of low cloud in autumn and winter increased in 1999 and 1989,respectively;During the evolution of low cloud quantity,there were periodic variations of 8-9 and 25-26 years;the 8-year time scale was the 1 st main cycle of low cloud cover change,and the 14-year time scale is the second period of low cloud cover change;relative humidity had the highest relative contribution rate to low cloud amount,reaching 51.3%,while the relative contribution rate of precipitation to low cloud amount was the smallest,only 6.1%.The correlation between precipitation and low cloud cover was the highest,the correlation coefficient was 0.67(P<0.01),and the correlation coefficient between average temperature and low cloud cover was the lowest,only 0.29(P<0.05).
The meteorological data of 4 meteorological stations in Bozhou area of Xinjiang from 1960 to 2013 were selected,the characteristics of low cloud cover and its relationship with other climatic factors in the past 54 years were analyzed by linear fitting,Mann-Kendall mutation test,wavelet analysis,relative contribution rate and sensitivity coefficient analysis method.The results showed that the low cloud cover in Bozhou area had shown an obvious upward trend in the past 54 years,with an increase of about 1.2%/10 a,with an average of 22.57% for many years,and the sequence had a strong positive sustainability;the lowest amount of low cloudiness in summer was 20.47%,and the highest amount in spring was 24.17%.The annual low cloud volume increased from 2001;there was no increase in the mean value of low cloud cover in spring and summer,and the increase in the amount of low cloud in autumn and winter increased in 1999 and 1989,respectively;During the evolution of low cloud quantity,there were periodic variations of 8-9 and 25-26 years;the 8-year time scale was the 1 st main cycle of low cloud cover change,and the 14-year time scale is the second period of low cloud cover change;relative humidity had the highest relative contribution rate to low cloud amount,reaching 51.3%,while the relative contribution rate of precipitation to low cloud amount was the smallest,only 6.1%.The correlation between precipitation and low cloud cover was the highest,the correlation coefficient was 0.67(P<0.01),and the correlation coefficient between average temperature and low cloud cover was the lowest,only 0.29(P<0.05).
引文
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[2] SUN B,GROISMAN P Y.Cloudiness variations over the former Soviet Union[J].International journal of climatology,2000,20:1097-1111.
[3] 丁守国,赵春生,石广玉,等.近 20 年全球总云量变化趋势分析[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(5):670-676.
[4] 徐兴奎.中国区域总云量和低云量分布变化[J].气象,2012,38(1):90-95.
[5] 丁生祥,郭连云.近50年三江源地区低云量变化特征及与其他气候因子的关系[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(13):141-146.
[6] 封彩云,王式功,尚可政,等.中国北方水汽与云和降水的关系[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2009,45(4):30-36.
[7] 张亚洲.南海及周边地区云量分布及低云量与南海海温的关系[J].气象科学,2012,32(3):260-268.
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[9] 牛晓瑞,王淑瑜.华北地区低云量的变化特征及其影响因子分析[J].高原气象,2012,31(5):1340-1347.
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[12] 亢庆,张增祥,王长有,等.艾比湖绿洲农业区土地利用动态与盐碱化影响的遥感应用研究[J].农业工程学报,2006,22(2):73-78.
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[14] 雷江群,刘登峰,黄强.渭河流域气候变化及干湿状况时空分布分析[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2015,43(3):175-181.
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[16] 成鹏.乌鲁木齐地区近50 a降水特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2010,33(4):580-587.
[17] 薛小杰,蒋晓辉,黄强,等.小波分析在水文序列趋势分析中的应用[J].应用科学学报,2002,20(4):426-428.
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[19] 郑红星,刘静.东北地区近40年干燥指数变化趋势及其气候敏感性[J].地理研究,2011,30(10):1765-1774.
[20] 陈素景,李丽娟,李九一,等.基于干燥指数的洮儿河中上游地区水分适宜性的时间变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(9):149-154.
[21] 宁婷婷,刘文兆,韩晓阳,等.东胜矿区近50年地表干湿状况时程变化分析[J].中国水土保持科学,2015,13(2):99-105.
[22] 施雅风,沈永平,李栋梁,等.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(2):152-164.
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