欧洲负利率政策实施效果评估及展望——基于合成控制法的研究
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摘要
社会各界对负利率政策的有效性自其推出以来就存在着较大分歧。基于2008—2016年欧元区与33个控制组国家或地区的年度经济数据,运用合成控制法从通货膨胀和经济增长两个角度对欧元区负利率政策的实施效果进行评估;结果发现,欧元区的负利率政策并没有显著提升通货膨胀和经济增长。这意味着欧元区的负利率政策促进经济增长的效果十分有限,货币当局不能仅依赖于负利率这种非常规手段,还应配合使用其他货币政策操作工具并采取相应的财政政策。
Since the negative interest rate policy came into being, its effectiveness has attracted quite different opinions from all sectors of society. Based on the annual economic data of 33 control group countries or regions in the Euro area from 2008 to 2016, this paper applies the synthetic control method to evaluate the implementation effect of the negative interest rate policy in the Euro area from the two perspectives of inflation and economic growth. The results show that the NIRP in the Euro area has not significantly improved inflation and economic growth. It suggests that the effects of NIRP in the Euro area in promoting economic growth is very limited; the monetary authorities should not rely on this kind of non-conventional means of negative interest rate only, but also should take full advantage of other operational tools of monetary policy and adopt appropriate fiscal policies.
Since the negative interest rate policy came into being, its effectiveness has attracted quite different opinions from all sectors of society. Based on the annual economic data of 33 control group countries or regions in the Euro area from 2008 to 2016, this paper applies the synthetic control method to evaluate the implementation effect of the negative interest rate policy in the Euro area from the two perspectives of inflation and economic growth. The results show that the NIRP in the Euro area has not significantly improved inflation and economic growth. It suggests that the effects of NIRP in the Euro area in promoting economic growth is very limited; the monetary authorities should not rely on this kind of non-conventional means of negative interest rate only, but also should take full advantage of other operational tools of monetary policy and adopt appropriate fiscal policies.
引文
[1]Gesell S.. The Natural Economic Order[M]. Birmingham:Peter Owen Ltd,1958.
[2]莫滕·本奇,艾泰克·马尔霍佐夫,吴婕.中央银行如何实施政策负利率[J].国际金融, 2016,(5):28-36.
[3]Wright J. H., Hannoun H.. Ultra-low or Negative Interest Rates:What They Mean for Financial Stability and Growth[J].Economic Journal, 2015, 122(564):1-10.
[4]范志勇,冯俊新,刘铭哲.负利率政策的传导渠道和有效性研究[J].经济理论与经济管理, 2017,(2):13-22.
[5]巴曙松.各国负利率政策影响几何[N].经济参考报,2016-08-24(002).
[6]Abo-Zaid S., Garín J.. Optimal Monetary Policy and Imperfect Financial Markets:A Cace for Negative Nominal Interest Rates?[J]. Economic Inquiry,2016, 54(1):215-228.
[7]熊启跃,王书朦.“负利率”与大型银行的净息差管理策略[J].金融监管研究, 2017,(2):65-80.
[8]Borio C., Zhu H.. Capital Regulation, Risk-taking and Monetary Policy:A Missing Link in the Transmission Mechanism?[J]. Journal of Financial Stability, 2012, 4(8):236-251.
[9]Kimball M. S.. Negative Interest Rate Policy as Conventional Monetary Policy[J]. National Institute Economic Review,2015, 1(234):R5-R14.
[10]曾智,何雅婷,曹国华.负利率、银行风险承担与风险异质性研究——基于欧洲银行业的实证分析[J].商业研究,2017,(7):44-51.
[11]丁玉.欧央行负利率政策实施效果研究[J].新金融, 2017,(1):60-63.
[12]郭杨.名义负利率政策是否实现了通胀和汇率调控目标?——基于五个经济体的实证分析[J].南方金融, 2016,(10):29-37.
[13]中国银行纽约分行研究院.央行负利率政策的效果及局限[J].金融博览,2017,(2):32-33.
[14]Abadie A., Gardeazabal J.. The Economic Costs of Conflict:A Case Study of the Basque Country[J]. The American Economic Review, 2003, 93(1):113-132.
[15]Abadie A., Diamond A., Hainmueller J.. Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies:Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2010, 105(490):493-505.
[16]刘甲炎,范子英.中国房产税试点的效果评估:基于合成控制法的研究[J].世界经济, 2013,(11):117-135.
[17]苏治,胡迪.通货膨胀目标制是否有效?——来自合成控制法的新证据[J].经济研究, 2015,(6):74-88.
[18]刘乃全,吴友.长三角扩容能促进区域经济共同增长吗[J].中国工业经济, 2017,(6):79-97.
[19]杨经国,周灵灵,邹恒甫.我国经济特区设立的经济增长效应评估——基于合成控制法的分析[J].经济学动态,2017,(1):41-51.
[20]黄先明,肖挺.交通设施建设完善与消费转移——来自杭州湾跨海大桥周边城市的经验证据[J].当代财经,2018,(7):14-24.
[21]Andrews J. M.. Negative Nominal Central Bank Policy Rates--Where Is the Lower Bound?[R]. Speech 168,Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2015.
(1)数据来自于欧洲中央银行http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html.。
(2)2017年10月9日,欧洲央行总裁德拉吉参加彼得森国际经济研究所研讨会上的观点。
(3)引自欧洲中央银行《欧洲地区银行借贷调整——2016年2季度报告》。
(1)控制组国家或地区的具体名单如下:澳大利亚、加拿大、捷克、中国香港、冰岛、以色列、韩国、中国澳门、新西兰、挪威、波多黎各、圣马力诺、新加坡、中国台湾、英国、美国、阿尔巴尼亚、波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、保加利亚、克罗地亚、匈牙利、马其顿、波兰、罗马尼亚、塞尔维亚、土耳其、巴西、中国、马来西亚、墨西哥、俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯和越南。
[2]莫滕·本奇,艾泰克·马尔霍佐夫,吴婕.中央银行如何实施政策负利率[J].国际金融, 2016,(5):28-36.
[3]Wright J. H., Hannoun H.. Ultra-low or Negative Interest Rates:What They Mean for Financial Stability and Growth[J].Economic Journal, 2015, 122(564):1-10.
[4]范志勇,冯俊新,刘铭哲.负利率政策的传导渠道和有效性研究[J].经济理论与经济管理, 2017,(2):13-22.
[5]巴曙松.各国负利率政策影响几何[N].经济参考报,2016-08-24(002).
[6]Abo-Zaid S., Garín J.. Optimal Monetary Policy and Imperfect Financial Markets:A Cace for Negative Nominal Interest Rates?[J]. Economic Inquiry,2016, 54(1):215-228.
[7]熊启跃,王书朦.“负利率”与大型银行的净息差管理策略[J].金融监管研究, 2017,(2):65-80.
[8]Borio C., Zhu H.. Capital Regulation, Risk-taking and Monetary Policy:A Missing Link in the Transmission Mechanism?[J]. Journal of Financial Stability, 2012, 4(8):236-251.
[9]Kimball M. S.. Negative Interest Rate Policy as Conventional Monetary Policy[J]. National Institute Economic Review,2015, 1(234):R5-R14.
[10]曾智,何雅婷,曹国华.负利率、银行风险承担与风险异质性研究——基于欧洲银行业的实证分析[J].商业研究,2017,(7):44-51.
[11]丁玉.欧央行负利率政策实施效果研究[J].新金融, 2017,(1):60-63.
[12]郭杨.名义负利率政策是否实现了通胀和汇率调控目标?——基于五个经济体的实证分析[J].南方金融, 2016,(10):29-37.
[13]中国银行纽约分行研究院.央行负利率政策的效果及局限[J].金融博览,2017,(2):32-33.
[14]Abadie A., Gardeazabal J.. The Economic Costs of Conflict:A Case Study of the Basque Country[J]. The American Economic Review, 2003, 93(1):113-132.
[15]Abadie A., Diamond A., Hainmueller J.. Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies:Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2010, 105(490):493-505.
[16]刘甲炎,范子英.中国房产税试点的效果评估:基于合成控制法的研究[J].世界经济, 2013,(11):117-135.
[17]苏治,胡迪.通货膨胀目标制是否有效?——来自合成控制法的新证据[J].经济研究, 2015,(6):74-88.
[18]刘乃全,吴友.长三角扩容能促进区域经济共同增长吗[J].中国工业经济, 2017,(6):79-97.
[19]杨经国,周灵灵,邹恒甫.我国经济特区设立的经济增长效应评估——基于合成控制法的分析[J].经济学动态,2017,(1):41-51.
[20]黄先明,肖挺.交通设施建设完善与消费转移——来自杭州湾跨海大桥周边城市的经验证据[J].当代财经,2018,(7):14-24.
[21]Andrews J. M.. Negative Nominal Central Bank Policy Rates--Where Is the Lower Bound?[R]. Speech 168,Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2015.
(1)数据来自于欧洲中央银行http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html.。
(2)2017年10月9日,欧洲央行总裁德拉吉参加彼得森国际经济研究所研讨会上的观点。
(3)引自欧洲中央银行《欧洲地区银行借贷调整——2016年2季度报告》。
(1)控制组国家或地区的具体名单如下:澳大利亚、加拿大、捷克、中国香港、冰岛、以色列、韩国、中国澳门、新西兰、挪威、波多黎各、圣马力诺、新加坡、中国台湾、英国、美国、阿尔巴尼亚、波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、保加利亚、克罗地亚、匈牙利、马其顿、波兰、罗马尼亚、塞尔维亚、土耳其、巴西、中国、马来西亚、墨西哥、俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯和越南。