基于GM(1,1)的危化品运输安全风险预警研究
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摘要
针对危化品运输过程风险评估问题,建立危化品运输企业风险评估指标体系,利用层次分析法确定指标权重,采用灰色评价法(GM(1,1))量化其中的定性指标,将危化品运输公司历史数据作为训练数据,建立危化品运输企业风险评估模型。将风险结果进行环比分析,通过环比分析确定影响运输风险的主要因素,企业对其进行相关管理,减少事故的发生,保证运输安全性,提高危化品企业安全运输效率和效益。
Aiming at the risk assessment of dangerous chemicals transportation process,the risk assessment index system of dangerous chemicals transportation enterprises is established. The index weight is determined by analytic hierarchy process( AHP),and the qualitative indexes are quantified by grey evaluation method( GM( 1,1)). Taking the historical data of dangerous chemicals transportation company as training data,the risk assessment model of dangerous chemical transport enterprises was established. The risk results are analyzed by ring-to-ring analysis,and the main factors affecting transportation risk are determined by ring-ratio analysis. The enterprises manage the risk,reduce the occurrence of accidents,guarantee the safety of transportation,and improve the efficiency and benefit of safe transportation of dangerous chemicals enterprises.
Aiming at the risk assessment of dangerous chemicals transportation process,the risk assessment index system of dangerous chemicals transportation enterprises is established. The index weight is determined by analytic hierarchy process( AHP),and the qualitative indexes are quantified by grey evaluation method( GM( 1,1)). Taking the historical data of dangerous chemicals transportation company as training data,the risk assessment model of dangerous chemical transport enterprises was established. The risk results are analyzed by ring-to-ring analysis,and the main factors affecting transportation risk are determined by ring-ratio analysis. The enterprises manage the risk,reduce the occurrence of accidents,guarantee the safety of transportation,and improve the efficiency and benefit of safe transportation of dangerous chemicals enterprises.
引文
[1]王瑶. X石油运输公司危化品运输安全管理研究[D].沈阳:沈阳大学,2016.
[2]徐凤琴,沈家.危险化学品物流的公共风险管理体系研究方法[J].物流技术,2007(09):28-30+65.
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[6]罗伟,谢桥军,水滨,余婧杰.基于模糊综合评价法的旅游轨道交通线路方案研究[J].现代城市轨道交通,2019(01):1-5.
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[8]叶文,赵建忠,万海涛,吕晓峰.基于改进灰色评价法的机载弹药技术保障安全风险综合评价研究[J].舰船电子工程,2017,37(08):133-135+139.
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[10]金灿灿,左洪福,张营,等.基于BBN的航空公司风险评估技术研究[J].航空学报,2013,34(3):588-596.
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[12]黄小奇,董江洁,艾文婷等.基于灰色评价法的油品装卸单元安全评估.[J].新疆石油天然气,2017,13(3):93-96.
[13]郑珂珂.航空公司安全状况和维修质量管理安全评估技术研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2012.
[2]徐凤琴,沈家.危险化学品物流的公共风险管理体系研究方法[J].物流技术,2007(09):28-30+65.
[3]王小燕.基于模糊评价的网络银行顾客信任度量方法研究[D].广州:暨南大学,2010.
[4]张君菲.基于层次分析法的NDN缓存策略[J].电子技术与软件工程,2019(05):9.
[5]何敏藩,赵飞.基于模糊综合评价法的大学生思想道德评价模型[J].佛山科学技术学院学报(自然科学版),2017,35(04):31-35.
[6]罗伟,谢桥军,水滨,余婧杰.基于模糊综合评价法的旅游轨道交通线路方案研究[J].现代城市轨道交通,2019(01):1-5.
[7]王璞.基于灰色评价法的铁路运输企业物资管理评价[J].铁道运输与经济,2017,39(06):70-75.
[8]叶文,赵建忠,万海涛,吕晓峰.基于改进灰色评价法的机载弹药技术保障安全风险综合评价研究[J].舰船电子工程,2017,37(08):133-135+139.
[9]吴金中,范文姬.危险货物道路运输风险评价体系研究[J].公路交通科技,2015,32(12):6-11.
[10]金灿灿,左洪福,张营,等.基于BBN的航空公司风险评估技术研究[J].航空学报,2013,34(3):588-596.
[11]章焱,安伟,刘保占.基于多层次灰色评价法的FPSO外输溢油风险评估[J].航海工程,2018,47(2):59-63.
[12]黄小奇,董江洁,艾文婷等.基于灰色评价法的油品装卸单元安全评估.[J].新疆石油天然气,2017,13(3):93-96.
[13]郑珂珂.航空公司安全状况和维修质量管理安全评估技术研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2012.