科技人才促进中国经济高质量发展了吗?——基于科技人才对全要素生产率增长效应的实证检验
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摘要
本文提出基于就业人员学历与学科背景的科技人才资本估算方法,利用动态面板模型实证考察科技人才对全要素生产率的增长效应,并由此揭示科技人才促进中国经济高质量发展的作用效果。研究表明:中国科技人才队伍持续壮大,但仍面临在人力资本中占比偏低以及区域非均衡配置等问题。科技人才是人力资本通过提高自主创新能力和加快前沿技术追赶速度来显著提升全要素生产率最主要的发力者,特别是在赶超技术前沿中作用尤为关键。同时,中国科技人才对全要素生产率提升幅度总体较小,促进经济高质量发展的巨大潜能仍有待释放。
This paper contributes in accurately measuring the scientific and technological(S&T)talent capital based on the education level and discipline background of employees,and empirically investigating whether it promotes China's high-quality economic development by employing a dynamic panel model to analyze its effect on total factor productivity(TFP).The results are shown as follows.(1)From 2001 to 2015,there was an obvious increase in Chinese S&T talents;however,the problems of the low ration in total human capital and the regional gap still exist.(2)The S&T talent can indeed significantly improve the TFP by improving the innovation capability and accelerating the catch-up speed to frontier technologies,especially the later.However,this positive effect is limited,which means the huge power of the S&T talent in promoting China's high-quality economic development still needs to be fully released.
This paper contributes in accurately measuring the scientific and technological(S&T)talent capital based on the education level and discipline background of employees,and empirically investigating whether it promotes China's high-quality economic development by employing a dynamic panel model to analyze its effect on total factor productivity(TFP).The results are shown as follows.(1)From 2001 to 2015,there was an obvious increase in Chinese S&T talents;however,the problems of the low ration in total human capital and the regional gap still exist.(2)The S&T talent can indeed significantly improve the TFP by improving the innovation capability and accelerating the catch-up speed to frontier technologies,especially the later.However,this positive effect is limited,which means the huge power of the S&T talent in promoting China's high-quality economic development still needs to be fully released.
引文
[1]蔡昉.中国经济增长如何转向全要素生产率驱动型[J].中国社会科学,2013(1):56-71,206.
[2]AIYAR S,FEYRER J.A contribution to the empirics of total factor productivity[Z].Dartmouth College Working Paper No.02-09,2002.
[3]魏下海,张建武.人力资本对全要素生产率增长的门槛效应研究[J].中国人口科学,2010(5):48-57,111.
[4]魏下海.人力资本、空间溢出与省际全要素生产率增长——基于三种空间权重测度的实证检验[J].财经研究,2010(12):94-104.
[5]VANDENBUSSCHE J,AGHION P,MEGHIR C.Growth,distance to frontier and composition of human capital[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2006,11(2):97-127.
[6]彭国华.我国地区全要素生产率与人力资本构成[J].中国工业经济,2007(2):52-59.
[7]朱承亮,师萍,岳宏志,等.人力资本、人力资本结构与区域经济增长效率[J].中国软科学,2011(2):110-119.
[8]陈仲常,谢波.人力资本对全要素生产率增长的外部性检验——基于我国省际动态面板模型[J].人口与经济,2013(1):68-75.
[9]ROMER P M.Human capital and growth:theory and evidence[J].Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,1990,32(1):251-286.
[10]李平.提升全要素生产率的路径及影响因素——增长核算与前沿面分解视角的梳理分析[J].管理世界,2016(9):1-11.
[11]程惠芳,陈超.开放经济下知识资本与全要素生产率——国际经验与中国启示[J].经济研究,2017(10):21-36.
[12]田友春,卢盛荣,靳来群.方法、数据与全要素生产率测算差异[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017(12):22-40.
[13]马茹,王宏伟.科技人才红利与中国区域经济增长[J].广东社会科学,2019(2):40-48.
[14]金碚.关于“高质量发展”的经济学研究[J].中国工业经济,2018(4):5-18.
[15]任保平.新时代中国经济从高速增长转向高质量发展:理论阐释与实践取向[J].学术月刊,2018(3):66-74,86.
[16]蒲晓晔,FIDRMUC J.中国经济高质量发展的动力结构优化机理研究[J].西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018(1):113-118.
[17]刘志彪.为高质量发展而竞争:地方政府竞争问题的新解析[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018(2):1-6,89.
[18]BENHABIB J,SPIEGEL M M.The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1994,34(2):143-173.
[19]NELSON R R,PHELPS E S.Investment in humans,technological diffusion,and economic growth[J].The American Economic Review,1966,56(1-2):69-75.
[20]BLUNDELL R,BOND S.Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models[J].Journal of Econometrics,1998,87(1):115-143.
[21]陈强.高级计量经济学及Stata应用:第二版[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2014.
[22]SOLOW R M.Technical change and the aggregate production function[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1957,39(3):312-320.
[23]贺勇,廖诺,杨倩霞.基于聚类分析和Cobb-Douglas函数的我国人才经济贡献率测算[J].数学的实践与认识,2014(19):130-138.
[24]廖诺,张紫君,李建清,等.基于C-C-E链的人才集聚对经济增长的贡献测度[J].人口与经济,2016(5):74-83.
[25]中国科协调研宣传部,中国科协创新战略研究院.中国科技人力资源发展研究报告——科技人力资源与创新驱动[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2018.
[26]MANNASOO K,HEIN H,RUUBEL R.The contributions of human capital,R&D spending and convergence to total factor productivity growth[J].Regional Studies,2018,52(12):1598-1611.
[27]刘瑞波,边志强.科技人才社会生态环境评价体系研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014(7):133-139.
(1)由于数据问题,西藏和港澳地区未计入研究范畴。
[2]AIYAR S,FEYRER J.A contribution to the empirics of total factor productivity[Z].Dartmouth College Working Paper No.02-09,2002.
[3]魏下海,张建武.人力资本对全要素生产率增长的门槛效应研究[J].中国人口科学,2010(5):48-57,111.
[4]魏下海.人力资本、空间溢出与省际全要素生产率增长——基于三种空间权重测度的实证检验[J].财经研究,2010(12):94-104.
[5]VANDENBUSSCHE J,AGHION P,MEGHIR C.Growth,distance to frontier and composition of human capital[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2006,11(2):97-127.
[6]彭国华.我国地区全要素生产率与人力资本构成[J].中国工业经济,2007(2):52-59.
[7]朱承亮,师萍,岳宏志,等.人力资本、人力资本结构与区域经济增长效率[J].中国软科学,2011(2):110-119.
[8]陈仲常,谢波.人力资本对全要素生产率增长的外部性检验——基于我国省际动态面板模型[J].人口与经济,2013(1):68-75.
[9]ROMER P M.Human capital and growth:theory and evidence[J].Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,1990,32(1):251-286.
[10]李平.提升全要素生产率的路径及影响因素——增长核算与前沿面分解视角的梳理分析[J].管理世界,2016(9):1-11.
[11]程惠芳,陈超.开放经济下知识资本与全要素生产率——国际经验与中国启示[J].经济研究,2017(10):21-36.
[12]田友春,卢盛荣,靳来群.方法、数据与全要素生产率测算差异[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017(12):22-40.
[13]马茹,王宏伟.科技人才红利与中国区域经济增长[J].广东社会科学,2019(2):40-48.
[14]金碚.关于“高质量发展”的经济学研究[J].中国工业经济,2018(4):5-18.
[15]任保平.新时代中国经济从高速增长转向高质量发展:理论阐释与实践取向[J].学术月刊,2018(3):66-74,86.
[16]蒲晓晔,FIDRMUC J.中国经济高质量发展的动力结构优化机理研究[J].西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018(1):113-118.
[17]刘志彪.为高质量发展而竞争:地方政府竞争问题的新解析[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018(2):1-6,89.
[18]BENHABIB J,SPIEGEL M M.The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1994,34(2):143-173.
[19]NELSON R R,PHELPS E S.Investment in humans,technological diffusion,and economic growth[J].The American Economic Review,1966,56(1-2):69-75.
[20]BLUNDELL R,BOND S.Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models[J].Journal of Econometrics,1998,87(1):115-143.
[21]陈强.高级计量经济学及Stata应用:第二版[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2014.
[22]SOLOW R M.Technical change and the aggregate production function[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1957,39(3):312-320.
[23]贺勇,廖诺,杨倩霞.基于聚类分析和Cobb-Douglas函数的我国人才经济贡献率测算[J].数学的实践与认识,2014(19):130-138.
[24]廖诺,张紫君,李建清,等.基于C-C-E链的人才集聚对经济增长的贡献测度[J].人口与经济,2016(5):74-83.
[25]中国科协调研宣传部,中国科协创新战略研究院.中国科技人力资源发展研究报告——科技人力资源与创新驱动[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2018.
[26]MANNASOO K,HEIN H,RUUBEL R.The contributions of human capital,R&D spending and convergence to total factor productivity growth[J].Regional Studies,2018,52(12):1598-1611.
[27]刘瑞波,边志强.科技人才社会生态环境评价体系研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014(7):133-139.
(1)由于数据问题,西藏和港澳地区未计入研究范畴。