气候变暖背景下北京地区生长期气候变化特征
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摘要
为研究气候变暖背景下北京地区生长期变化特征,利用北京1951—2016年逐日气象资料,应用Mann-Kendall检验和线性回归法,分析了北京地区生长期的气候变化特征及其与变暖的联系。结果显示:生长期初日显著提前与生长期终日极显著推迟,导致生长期极显著延长;生长期平均气温和积温分别以0. 21℃/10a、106. 5℃·d/10a的变化率显著增加,而生长期降水量以-31. 4mm/10a的变化率显著减少;生长期指数与平均气温之间存在显著相关,生长期长短与生长期的热量条件一致。尽管存在热岛效应,北京地区生长期气候资源的变化趋势是可信的。北京地区生长期气候变化导致农业热量资源增加,对于提高农产品产量和质量都具有重要意义。
The research aims to clarify the variation characteristics of the thermal growing season in Beijing under the background of global warming. The authors adopted correlation analysis,Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method to study the timing,length,and thermal intensity of the climatic growing season and their relationship with temperature changes based on daily meteorological data of Beijing Observatory stations during 1951-2016. The results showed that: the start of climatic growing season was significantly advanced and the end of climatic growing season was significantly delayed,as a result,the length of the growing season was significantly prolonged. The average temperature and accumulated temperature of climate growing season significantly increased with climate trend rate of 0. 21℃/10 a and 106. 5℃ ·d/10 a respectively. However,the precipitation decreased significantly with the linear-change-rate of-31. 4 mm/10 a. There was a significant correlation between the indices of climate growing season and the average temperature which showed that the growing season length is consistent with the thermal conditions of the growing season. The results also showed that the trend of thermal growing season in Beijing is credible despite the heat island effect. The long-term climate change leads to an increase in agricultural thermal resources which is of great significance to improve the output and quality of agricultural products. The results have great values to the reasonable use of heat resources and planting structure adjustment.
The research aims to clarify the variation characteristics of the thermal growing season in Beijing under the background of global warming. The authors adopted correlation analysis,Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method to study the timing,length,and thermal intensity of the climatic growing season and their relationship with temperature changes based on daily meteorological data of Beijing Observatory stations during 1951-2016. The results showed that: the start of climatic growing season was significantly advanced and the end of climatic growing season was significantly delayed,as a result,the length of the growing season was significantly prolonged. The average temperature and accumulated temperature of climate growing season significantly increased with climate trend rate of 0. 21℃/10 a and 106. 5℃ ·d/10 a respectively. However,the precipitation decreased significantly with the linear-change-rate of-31. 4 mm/10 a. There was a significant correlation between the indices of climate growing season and the average temperature which showed that the growing season length is consistent with the thermal conditions of the growing season. The results also showed that the trend of thermal growing season in Beijing is credible despite the heat island effect. The long-term climate change leads to an increase in agricultural thermal resources which is of great significance to improve the output and quality of agricultural products. The results have great values to the reasonable use of heat resources and planting structure adjustment.
引文
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[11]张立波,魏丽华,沈国强. 1961-2010年气候变暖对中国气候生长期的影响分析[J].科技通报,2013,29(3):23-28.
[12]王占彪,王猛,尹小刚,等.气候变化背景下华北平原夏玉米各生育期水热时空变化特征[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(4):473-481.
[13]尹朝静,李谷成,高雪.气候变化对中国粮食产量的影响-基于省级面板数据的实证[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(6):89-94.
[14]徐文慧,李庆祥,杨溯,等.近百年全球地表月气温数据的概况与初步整合[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(5):358-364.
[15]王君,严中伟,李珍,等.近30年城市化对北京极端温度的影响[J].科学通报,2013,58(33):3464-3470.
[16]刘海涛,杨洁.全球变暖下1951-2014年北京地区的季节变化[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(27):141-148.
[17]周雅清,任国玉.城市化对华北地区极端气温事件频率的影响[J].高原气象,2014,33(6):1589-1598.
[18]Chinchorkar S S,Sayyad F G,Vaidya V B. Trend detection in annual maximum temperature and precipitation using the Mann Kendall test–A case study to assess climate change on Anand of central Gujarat[J]. MAUSAM,2015,66(1):1-6.
[19]葛荣凤,张力小,王京丽,等.城市热岛效应的多尺度变化特征及其周期分析-以北京市为例[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,52(2):210-215.
[20]李鹏飞,刘文军,赵昕奕.京津冀地区近50年气温、降水与潜在蒸散量变化分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(3):137-143.
[2]Yanling S,Yanxia Z,Chunyi W. Changes of accumulated temperature,growing season and precipitation in the North China Plain from 1961 to2009[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2011,25(4):534-543.
[3]Yang X,Tian Z,Chen B. Thermal growing season trends in east China,with emphasis on urbanization effects[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2013,33(10):2402-2412.
[4]徐铭志,任国玉.近40年中国气候生长期的变化[J].应用气象学报,2004,15(3):306-312.
[5]Linderholm H W,Walther A,Chen D. Twentieth-century trends in the thermal growing season in the Greater Baltic Area[J]. Climatic Change,2008,87(3-4):405-419.
[6]翟佳,袁凤辉,吴家兵.植物物候变化研究进展[J].生态学杂志,2015,34(11):3237-3243.
[7]罗海江.基于卫星遥感的北京城乡植物物候差异[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(10):1463-1469.
[8]马洁华,刘园,杨晓光,等.全球气候变化背景下华北平原气候资源变化趋势[J].生态学报,2010,30(14):3818-3827.
[9]梁玉莲,韩明臣,白龙,等.中国近30年农业气候资源时空变化特征[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015,33(4):259-267.
[10]刘志娟,杨晓光,王文峰.气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅳ.黄淮海平原半湿润暖温麦-玉两熟灌溉农区农业气候资源时空变化特征[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(4):905-912.
[11]张立波,魏丽华,沈国强. 1961-2010年气候变暖对中国气候生长期的影响分析[J].科技通报,2013,29(3):23-28.
[12]王占彪,王猛,尹小刚,等.气候变化背景下华北平原夏玉米各生育期水热时空变化特征[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(4):473-481.
[13]尹朝静,李谷成,高雪.气候变化对中国粮食产量的影响-基于省级面板数据的实证[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(6):89-94.
[14]徐文慧,李庆祥,杨溯,等.近百年全球地表月气温数据的概况与初步整合[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(5):358-364.
[15]王君,严中伟,李珍,等.近30年城市化对北京极端温度的影响[J].科学通报,2013,58(33):3464-3470.
[16]刘海涛,杨洁.全球变暖下1951-2014年北京地区的季节变化[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(27):141-148.
[17]周雅清,任国玉.城市化对华北地区极端气温事件频率的影响[J].高原气象,2014,33(6):1589-1598.
[18]Chinchorkar S S,Sayyad F G,Vaidya V B. Trend detection in annual maximum temperature and precipitation using the Mann Kendall test–A case study to assess climate change on Anand of central Gujarat[J]. MAUSAM,2015,66(1):1-6.
[19]葛荣凤,张力小,王京丽,等.城市热岛效应的多尺度变化特征及其周期分析-以北京市为例[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,52(2):210-215.
[20]李鹏飞,刘文军,赵昕奕.京津冀地区近50年气温、降水与潜在蒸散量变化分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(3):137-143.