基于最大熵方法的未来气候变化下狼毒在中国潜在分布的预测
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摘要
为了解入侵杂草狼毒Stellera chamaejasme在当前(1970—2000年)和未来气候情景下的扩散动态,采用最近邻体距离法选取样本数据,采用相关性分析和主成分分析选择环境变量,应用最大熵方法建立生态位模型用来预测当前(1970—2000年)和未来(2050年和2070年)气候变化下狼毒的潜在分布区,并应用Matlab软件计算气候变化下狼毒地理分布重心、平均海拔和等级分布区范围的动态变化。结果表明,当前(1970—2000年)气候条件下狼毒种群的潜在分布区从西南到东北呈带状分布,适生区等级随纬度的增加逐渐降低;未来气候变化下狼毒的潜在分布区将向西南方向和高海拔地区扩散,平均海拔将增高638 m,高适生区面积增长尤为迅速,2050年的相对增长率达51%;高寒草地将成为未来狼毒扩散的主要区域,因此应进一步加强对该区狼毒的防控。
In order to understand the spreading dynamics of Stellera chamaejasme in the past(from1970 to 2000) and future climate scenarios, the occurrence records and environment variables were respectively selected with the nearest neighbor distance method, correlation analysis and principal component analysis, and the ecological niche model was established by using the maximum entropy method,and then the potential distribution area of S. chamaejasme in the past and future(2050 and 2070) was predicted. The changes of the geographical distribution centroid, the average elevation and the range of hierarchical distribution areas under climate change were calculated with Matlab. The results showed that the potential areas of S. chamaejasme were spread from southwestern to northeastern China, and the level of potential distribution areas decreased gradually with increasing latitude. The potential geographical distribution of S. chamaejasme would spread to the southwestern and high altitude areas with the future climate change, and the average elevation increased by about 638 m. Especially, the areas of high adaption would grow rapidly, and the relative growing rate would be about 51% in 2050. In the future, the alpine grasslands would become the main area for the spreading of S. chamaejasme, and the prevention and control measures should be further strengthened in this area.
In order to understand the spreading dynamics of Stellera chamaejasme in the past(from1970 to 2000) and future climate scenarios, the occurrence records and environment variables were respectively selected with the nearest neighbor distance method, correlation analysis and principal component analysis, and the ecological niche model was established by using the maximum entropy method,and then the potential distribution area of S. chamaejasme in the past and future(2050 and 2070) was predicted. The changes of the geographical distribution centroid, the average elevation and the range of hierarchical distribution areas under climate change were calculated with Matlab. The results showed that the potential areas of S. chamaejasme were spread from southwestern to northeastern China, and the level of potential distribution areas decreased gradually with increasing latitude. The potential geographical distribution of S. chamaejasme would spread to the southwestern and high altitude areas with the future climate change, and the average elevation increased by about 638 m. Especially, the areas of high adaption would grow rapidly, and the relative growing rate would be about 51% in 2050. In the future, the alpine grasslands would become the main area for the spreading of S. chamaejasme, and the prevention and control measures should be further strengthened in this area.
引文
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Qin YJ,LüWC,Zhao SQ,Liu H,Li ZH.2018.Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of European grapevine month Lobesia botrana in China considering the irrigation and climate conditions.Journal of Plant Protection,45(3):599-605(in Chinese)[秦誉嘉,吕文诚,赵守歧,刘慧,李志红.2018.考虑灌溉及气候变化条件下葡萄花翅小卷蛾在中国的潜在地理分布.植物保护学报,45(3):599-605]
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Wang FS,He YT,Shi PL,Niu B,Zhang XZ,Xu XL.2016.Stellera chamaejasme as an indicator for alpine meadow degradation on the Tibetan Plateau.Chinese Journal Applied Environmental Biology,22(4):567-572(in Chinese)[王福山,何永涛,石培礼,牛犇,张宪洲,徐兴良.2016.狼毒对西藏高原高寒草甸退化的指示作用.应用与环境生物学报,22(4):567-572]
Xing F,Wang YH,Guo JX.2004.Spatial distribution patterns and dispersal mechanisms of the seed population of Stellera chamaejasme on degraded grasslands in Inner Mongolia,China.Acta Ecological Sinica,24(1):143-147(in Chinese)[邢福,王艳红,郭继勋.2004.内蒙古退化草原狼毒种子的种群分布格局与散布机制.生态学报,24(1):143-147]
Xing F,Wang ZW.2000.Poisonous plants in Kerqin grassland and strategy to secure safety for livestock.Acta Prataculturae Sinica,9(3):66-73(in Chinese)[邢福,王正文.2000.科尔沁草地有毒植物及保障家畜安全的对策.草业学报,9(3):66-73]
Zhang XQ,Li GQ,Du S.2018.Predicting the influence of future climate on the suitable distribution areas of Elaeagnus angustifolia.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,29(10):3213-3220(in Chinese)[张晓芹,李国庆,杜盛.2018.未来气候变化对沙枣适宜分布区的影响预测.应用生态学,29(10):3213-3220]
Zhang Y,Li J,Lin W,Qiang S.2011.Prediction of potential distribution area of Erigeron philadelphicus in China based on MaxEnt model.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,22(11):2970-2976(in Chinese)[张颖,李君,林蔚,强胜.2011.基于最大熵生态位元模型的入侵杂草春飞蓬在中国潜在分布区的预测.应用生态学报,22(11):2970-2976]
Zhao CZ,Fan SY,Yin CQ.2004.Causation of degenerated grassland and its sustainable development countermeasures in Qilian Mountains of China.Journal of Desert Research,24(2):207-210(in Chinese)[赵成章,樊胜岳,殷翠琴.2004.祁连山区天然草原退化原因分析与可持续利用对策.中国沙漠,24(2):207-210]
Zhao CZ,Gao FY,Sheng YP,Dong XG,Zhou W.2011.Fine-scale spatial distribution and spatial association of Stellera chamaejasme population.Arid Land Geography,34(3):492-498(in Chinese)[赵成章,高福元,盛亚萍,董小刚,周伟.2011.狼毒种群小尺度空间分布格局及空间关联性研究.干旱区地理,34(3):492-498]
Zhu GP,Liu GQ,Bu WJ,Gao YB.2013.Ecological niche modeling and its applications in biodiversity conservation.Biodiversity Science,21(1):90-98(in Chinese)[朱耿平,刘国卿,卜文俊,高玉葆.2013.生态位模型的基本原理及其在生物多样性保护中的应用.生物多样性,21(1):90-98]
Chen IC,Hill JK,Ohlemüller R,Roy DB,Thomas CD.2011.Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming.Science,333(6045):1024-1026
Chen MP,Lin ED.2010.Global greenhouse gas emission mitigation under representative concentration pathways scenarios and challenges to China.Advances in Climate Change Research,6(6):436-442(in Chinese)[陈敏鹏,林而达.2010.代表性浓度路径情景下的全球温室气体减排和对中国的挑战.气候变化研究进展,6(6):436-442]
Cheng D,Liu YM,Li JZ,Mo ZH.2015.Extraction of spectral difference characteristics of Stellera chamaejasme in Qilian County of Qinghai Province,Northwest China.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,26(8):2307-2313(in Chinese)[程迪,刘咏梅,李京忠,莫重辉.2015.青海祁连瑞香狼毒的光谱差异特征提取.应用生态学,26(8):2307-2313]
Dukes JS,Mooney HA.1999.Does global change increase the success of biological invaders?Trends in Ecology&Evolution,14(4):135-139
Gao FY,Zhao CZ,Shi FX,Sheng YP,Ren H,He GB.2011.Spatial pattern of Stellera chamaejasme population in degraded alpine grassland in northern slope of Qilian Mountains,China.Chinese Journal of Ecology,30(6):1312-1316(in Chinese)[高福元,赵成章,石福习,盛亚萍,任珩,贺国宝.2011.祁连山北坡高寒草地狼毒种群格局.生态学杂志,30(6):1312-1316]
Houghton J.2005.Global warming.Reports on Progress in Physics,68(6):1343-1403
IPPC.2013.Climate change 2013:the physical science basis.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press
Liu Y,Long RJ,Yao T.2004.Research progress on Stellera chamaejasme L.in grassland.Pratacultural Science,21(6):55-61(in Chinese)[刘英,龙瑞军,姚拓.2004.草地狼毒研究进展.草业科学,21(6):55-61]
Midgley GF,Hannah L,Millar D,Thuiller W,Booth A.2003.Developing regional and species-level assessments of climate change impacts on biodiversity in the Cape Floristic Region.Biological Conservation,12(1/2):87-97
Moss RH,Edmonds JA,Hibbard KA,Manning MR,Rose ST,van Vuuren DP,Carter TR,Emori S,Kainuma M,Kram T,et al.2009.The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment.Nature,463:747-756
Okubo K,Oike S.2008.Relationship between the aquatic plant distributions and environmental conditions in irrigation anals in Kamiina District,Nagano Prefecture.Journal of the Japanese Institute of Landscape Architecture,71(5):549-552
Pauli H,Gottfried M,Dullinger S,Abdaladze O,Akhalkatsi M,Alonso JLB,Coldea G,Dick J,Erschbamer B,Calzado RF,et al.2012.Recent plant diversity changes on Europe’s mountain summits.Science,336(6079):353-355
Phillips SJ,Anderson RP,Schapire RE.2006.Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.Ecological Modelling,190(3/4):231-259
Qin YJ,LüWC,Zhao SQ,Liu H,Li ZH.2018.Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of European grapevine month Lobesia botrana in China considering the irrigation and climate conditions.Journal of Plant Protection,45(3):599-605(in Chinese)[秦誉嘉,吕文诚,赵守歧,刘慧,李志红.2018.考虑灌溉及气候变化条件下葡萄花翅小卷蛾在中国的潜在地理分布.植物保护学报,45(3):599-605]
Shi ZC.1997.The poisonous plants of Chinese grassland.Beijing:China Agriculture Press,pp.140-150(in Chinese)[史志诚.1997.中国草地重要有毒植物.北京:中国农业出版社,pp.140-150]
Sun T,Chen Q,Zhao YX,Long RJ.2013.Effects of invasive weeds on relative grasshopper abundance in alpine steppe in the Qilian Mountains.Acta Prataculturae Sinica,22(3):85-91(in Chinese)[孙涛,陈强,赵亚雄,龙瑞军.2013.祁连山高山草地毒杂草侵入对蝗虫相对多度的影响.草业学报,22(3):85-91]
Swets JA.1988.Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems.Science,240(4857):1285-1293
Wang FS,He YT,Shi PL,Niu B,Zhang XZ,Xu XL.2016.Stellera chamaejasme as an indicator for alpine meadow degradation on the Tibetan Plateau.Chinese Journal Applied Environmental Biology,22(4):567-572(in Chinese)[王福山,何永涛,石培礼,牛犇,张宪洲,徐兴良.2016.狼毒对西藏高原高寒草甸退化的指示作用.应用与环境生物学报,22(4):567-572]
Xing F,Wang YH,Guo JX.2004.Spatial distribution patterns and dispersal mechanisms of the seed population of Stellera chamaejasme on degraded grasslands in Inner Mongolia,China.Acta Ecological Sinica,24(1):143-147(in Chinese)[邢福,王艳红,郭继勋.2004.内蒙古退化草原狼毒种子的种群分布格局与散布机制.生态学报,24(1):143-147]
Xing F,Wang ZW.2000.Poisonous plants in Kerqin grassland and strategy to secure safety for livestock.Acta Prataculturae Sinica,9(3):66-73(in Chinese)[邢福,王正文.2000.科尔沁草地有毒植物及保障家畜安全的对策.草业学报,9(3):66-73]
Zhang XQ,Li GQ,Du S.2018.Predicting the influence of future climate on the suitable distribution areas of Elaeagnus angustifolia.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,29(10):3213-3220(in Chinese)[张晓芹,李国庆,杜盛.2018.未来气候变化对沙枣适宜分布区的影响预测.应用生态学,29(10):3213-3220]
Zhang Y,Li J,Lin W,Qiang S.2011.Prediction of potential distribution area of Erigeron philadelphicus in China based on MaxEnt model.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,22(11):2970-2976(in Chinese)[张颖,李君,林蔚,强胜.2011.基于最大熵生态位元模型的入侵杂草春飞蓬在中国潜在分布区的预测.应用生态学报,22(11):2970-2976]
Zhao CZ,Fan SY,Yin CQ.2004.Causation of degenerated grassland and its sustainable development countermeasures in Qilian Mountains of China.Journal of Desert Research,24(2):207-210(in Chinese)[赵成章,樊胜岳,殷翠琴.2004.祁连山区天然草原退化原因分析与可持续利用对策.中国沙漠,24(2):207-210]
Zhao CZ,Gao FY,Sheng YP,Dong XG,Zhou W.2011.Fine-scale spatial distribution and spatial association of Stellera chamaejasme population.Arid Land Geography,34(3):492-498(in Chinese)[赵成章,高福元,盛亚萍,董小刚,周伟.2011.狼毒种群小尺度空间分布格局及空间关联性研究.干旱区地理,34(3):492-498]
Zhu GP,Liu GQ,Bu WJ,Gao YB.2013.Ecological niche modeling and its applications in biodiversity conservation.Biodiversity Science,21(1):90-98(in Chinese)[朱耿平,刘国卿,卜文俊,高玉葆.2013.生态位模型的基本原理及其在生物多样性保护中的应用.生物多样性,21(1):90-98]