我国森林灾害的空间分布分析
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摘要
【目的】森林火灾及病虫鼠害是森林生态系统的重要影响因子,对森林生态系统的稳定和平衡有重要影响。开展对森林灾害的研究,对提高森林资源风险的管控能力和应对措施等有重要的意义。【方法】本研究收集了我国2003—2016年主要森林灾害的相关数据,采用主成分聚类分析的方法,对森林灾害的空间分布进行了分析。【结果】2003—2016年,在森林火灾总次数上,湖南和贵州两省位居前列。在火场总面积上,黑龙江省远高于其他省份,北京和天津的火场总面积最少。在受害森林总面积上,黑龙江省和内蒙古自治区比较严重,是其他省市区的几十倍甚至上百倍。在成林蓄积量损失上,黑龙江省也是最严重的省份,平均每年火灾损失成林蓄积68.61万m3。按受灾程度将火灾发生区分为轻度森林火灾区(I类)、中度森林火灾区(II类)和重度森林火灾区(III类)3类,黑龙江省为重度火灾区,受灾程度最严重。在病虫鼠害的空间分布上,按照受灾面积的大小分为4类,其中新疆和内蒙属于IV类地区,为病虫鼠害发生面积很大区;其他省市区分别属于I～III类,为病虫鼠害发生面积较小(北京市、上海市等)、中度(海南省)和较大区(黑龙江省等)。【结论】2003—2016年,我国森林火灾次数、受害面积等总体呈下降趋势,但近年来全国森林病虫鼠害的发生面积总体呈现上升趋势,且面积居高不下,中度和重度森林灾害面积占比增加,这应该引起高度重视。本研究对相关问题进行了讨论,为我国森林灾害的风险管控提供参考。
[Objective] Forest fires, diseases, pests and rodents are important influencing factors in forest ecosystem, and have important influence on the stability and balance of forest ecosystem. It is of great significance to study the risk of forest disasters to improve the management ability and countermeasures of forest resource risk. [Method] Relevant data on the number of forest disasters in China from 2003 to 2016 were collected in this study, and the spatial distribution of China 's forest disasters was analyzed using the principal component cluster analysis method. [Result] From 2003 to 2016, Hunan and Guizhou provinces ranked first top two provinces in terms of the total number of forest fires. Concerning total fire area,Heilongjiang Province was much higher than other provinces, while Beijing and Tianjin municipalities had the least total. In terms of the total area of affecting forests, Heilongjiang Province and Inner Mongolia autonomous region were relatively serious, which was dozens or even hundreds of times of other provinces and cities. In terms of affecting stand volume loss, Heilongjiang Province was also the most serious one,with an average annual forest fire loss of 686 100 m3. According to the degree of fire disaster, the spatial distribution of forest fires can be divided into three types, which are mild, moderate and severe fire zones,especially Heilongjiang Province was the most prominent. On the spatial distribution of forest diseases, pests and rodents disasters were divided into four categories based on the extent of the damage. Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region fell into the IV category, where a large area diseases, pests and rodents occurred with a high proportion of moderate and severe ones. Other provinces and cities were belonging to the I– III category, where smaller(Beijing, Shanghai, etc.), moderate(Hainan Province) and larger(Heilongjiang Province, etc.) area diseases, pests and rodents happened. [Conclusion] The number of forest fires and the area of forest damage were generally decreasing in 2003 to 2016, but the area of forest diseases and insect pests occurrence overall rised in recent years in China, especially in the proportion of forest insect and rodent, moderate and severe disaster area increased, and this should be paid more attention to. The study also discusses relevant issues, and provides a reference for the risk management of forest disasters.
[Objective] Forest fires, diseases, pests and rodents are important influencing factors in forest ecosystem, and have important influence on the stability and balance of forest ecosystem. It is of great significance to study the risk of forest disasters to improve the management ability and countermeasures of forest resource risk. [Method] Relevant data on the number of forest disasters in China from 2003 to 2016 were collected in this study, and the spatial distribution of China 's forest disasters was analyzed using the principal component cluster analysis method. [Result] From 2003 to 2016, Hunan and Guizhou provinces ranked first top two provinces in terms of the total number of forest fires. Concerning total fire area,Heilongjiang Province was much higher than other provinces, while Beijing and Tianjin municipalities had the least total. In terms of the total area of affecting forests, Heilongjiang Province and Inner Mongolia autonomous region were relatively serious, which was dozens or even hundreds of times of other provinces and cities. In terms of affecting stand volume loss, Heilongjiang Province was also the most serious one,with an average annual forest fire loss of 686 100 m3. According to the degree of fire disaster, the spatial distribution of forest fires can be divided into three types, which are mild, moderate and severe fire zones,especially Heilongjiang Province was the most prominent. On the spatial distribution of forest diseases, pests and rodents disasters were divided into four categories based on the extent of the damage. Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region fell into the IV category, where a large area diseases, pests and rodents occurred with a high proportion of moderate and severe ones. Other provinces and cities were belonging to the I– III category, where smaller(Beijing, Shanghai, etc.), moderate(Hainan Province) and larger(Heilongjiang Province, etc.) area diseases, pests and rodents happened. [Conclusion] The number of forest fires and the area of forest damage were generally decreasing in 2003 to 2016, but the area of forest diseases and insect pests occurrence overall rised in recent years in China, especially in the proportion of forest insect and rodent, moderate and severe disaster area increased, and this should be paid more attention to. The study also discusses relevant issues, and provides a reference for the risk management of forest disasters.
引文
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[24]高敏雪,甄峰.政府统计国际规范概览[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2017.Gao M X,Zhen F.Guidelines for international principles and standards of official statistics[M].Beijing:Economic Science Press,2017.
[2]Naomi B.Natural disasters that affect ecosystems[DB/OL].[2018-07-01].https://www.hunker.com/12364793/naturaldisasters-that-affect-ecosystems.
[3]Liu X.Three dead as Portugal suffers over 400 forest fires[DB/OL].[2017-10-16].http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-10/16/c_136682035.htm.
[4]FAO.The impact of natural hazards and disasters on agriculture and food security and nutrition[DB/OL].[2015-05-01].http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4434e.pdf.
[5]陶玉柱,邸雪颖,金森.我国森林火灾发生的时空规律研究[J].世界林业研究,2013,26(9):75-79.Tao Y Z,Di X Y,Jin S.The spatiotemporal regularity of forest fire occurrence in China[J].World Forestry Research,2013,26(9):75-79.
[6]徐艳梅.林木病虫害防治实用技术图解[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2015.Xu Y M.Diagram of practical techniques for forest pest control[M].Beijing:Chemical Industry Press,2015.
[7]韩崇选.林区鼠害综合治理技术[M].杨凌:西北农林科技大学出版社,2003.Han C X.Comprehensive management of rodent in forest area[M].Yangling:Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University Press,2003.
[8]舒立福,田晓瑞,李红.世界森林火灾状况综述[J].世界林业研究,1998,11(6):41-47.Shu L F,Tian X R,Li H.Overview of world forest fire situation[J].World Forestry Research,1998,11(6):41-47.
[9]赵杰.森林病虫害灾害经济损失评估指标体系的研究[J].中国森林病虫,2004,23(1):1-5.Zhao J.Study on economic loss evaluation index system of forest pest disaster[J].Forest Pest and Disease,2004,23(1):1-5.
[10]田晓瑞,刘晓东,舒立福,等.中国森林火灾周期振荡的小波分析[J].火灾科学,2007,16(1):55-59.Tian X R,Liu X D,Shu L F,et al.Wavelet analysis of periodic oscillation of forest fire in China[J].Fire Science,2007,16(1):55-59.
[11]国家林业局.中国林业统计年鉴(2015)[R].北京:中国林业出版社,2016.State Forestry Administration.China forestry statistical yearbook(2015)[R].Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House,2016.
[12]国家林业局.中国林业统计年鉴(2016)[R].北京:中国林业出版社,2017.State Forestry Administration.China forestry statistical yearbook(2016)[R].Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House,2017.
[13]国务院办公厅.森林防火条例(国务院令第541号)[DB/OL].[2008-12-05].http://www.gov.cn/flfg/2008-12/05/content_1171407.htm.General Office of the State Council.Regulations on forest fire prevention(order of the state council no.541).[2008-12-05].http://www.gov.cn/flfg/2008-12/05/content_1171407.htm.
[14]中华人民共和国国务院.森林病虫害防治条例[DB/OL].[2005-09-27].http://www.gov.cn/flfg/2005-09/27/content_70642.htm.State Council of the People’s Republic of China.Regulations on forest pest control[DB/OL].[2005-09-27].http://www.gov.cn/flfg/2005-09/27/content_70642.htm.
[15]韩焕金.华北地区2005-2014年森林火灾规律研究[J].森林防火,2016,12(4):39-42.Han H J.Study on forest fire rule of 2005-2014 in north China[J].Forest Fire Prevention,2016,12(4):39-42.
[16]陈锋.气候变化对云南省森林火灾的影响[J].北京林业大学学报,2012,34(6):8-15.Chen F.Impacts of climate change on forest fires in Yunnan province[J].Journal of Beijing Forestry University,2012,34(6):8-15.
[17]周雪,张颖.中国森林火灾风险统计分析[J].统计与信息论坛,2014,29(1):34-39.Zhou X,Zhang Y.Statistical analysis of forest fire risk in China[J].Statistics&Information Forum,2014,29(1):34-39.
[18]赵文霞,刘开玲.我国西北部地区森林生物灾害发生趋势分析及可持续控灾策略[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2003,23(1):90-96.Zhao W X,Liu K L.Trend analysis of forest biohazard in northwest China and strategy of sustainable disaster control[J].Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering,2003,23(1):90-96.
[19]赵铁良,耿海东,张旭东,等.气温变化对我国森林病虫害的影响[J].中国森林病虫,2013,22(3):29-32.Zhao T L,Geng H D,Zhang X D,et al.The influence of temperature change on forest pests and diseases in China[J].Forest Pest and Disease,2013,22(3):29-32.
[20]国家林业局森林防火办公室.中国生物防火林带建设[M].北京:中国林业出版社,2003.Forest Fire Prevention Office of State Forestry Administration.Construction of China biological fire prevention forest belt[M].Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House,2003.
[21]李剑泉,李智勇,易浩若.森林与全球气候变化的关系[J].西北林学院学报,2010,25(4):23-28.Li J Q,Li Z Y,Yi H R.The relationship between forests and global climate change[J].Journal of Northwest Forestry University,2010,25(4):23-28.
[22]甄学宁,李小川.森林消防理论与技术[M].北京:中国林业出版社,2010.Zhen X N,Li X C.Forest fire theory and technology[M].Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House,2010.
[23]黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价理论与实践[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.Huang C F.Theory and practice of natural disaster risk assessment[M].Beijing:Science Press,2005.
[24]高敏雪,甄峰.政府统计国际规范概览[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2017.Gao M X,Zhen F.Guidelines for international principles and standards of official statistics[M].Beijing:Economic Science Press,2017.