城市化背景下重庆市水生态系统服务价值评估及其影响因子分析
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摘要
为分析城市化背景下水生态系统服务价值的时序变化特征及其影响因素,在重庆市水生态系统服务价值演变特征的基础上,利用Person相关性分析得出主要影响因子,进一步对重庆市2001—2015年水生态系统服务价值的主要影响因子进行了回归分析。结果表明:重庆市15年来水生态系统服务价值呈波动增长态势,且以水生态产品供给、调蓄和污染物降解的价值量为主,其价值量年均比重达66.44%;同时水生态调蓄价值量增长了483.01亿元,比重增加至41.06%,成为水生态系统中价值量最大的服务类型,而水生态文化景观价值比重最小,年均增长率仅有2.36%。另外,重庆市水生态系统服务价值关键影响因子为常住人口数、城市化水平、污水排放量、人均GDP、植被覆盖率、生态需水量,且与水生态产品供给、水生态调蓄、水生态系统维持、水生态文化景观价值均存在显著正相关(R~2均值为0.74),说明各回归模型的拟合度较高,各因子对水生态系统服务的影响显著。上述研究不仅为水生态系统服务价值的影响机制分析奠定了基础,也为区域性水生态系统规划、开发利用与保护提供了决策参考。
In order to analyze the temporal variation characteristics and influencing factors of water ecosystem service value under the urbanization background, we use Person correlation analysis to obtain the main influencing factors, and further make a regression analysis on the main influencing factors of water ecosystem service on the basis of the evolution characteristics of service value of water ecosystem in Chongqing City from 2001 to 2015. The results showed that the value of water ecosystem services in Chongqing City had the fluctuating growth trend in the past 15 years, and the value of water ecosystem product supply, regulation and pollutant degradation was the main value, accounting for 66.44% of an average annual value; at the same time, the value of water ecological regulation and storage increased by 48.301 billion yuan, the proportion increased to 41.06%; it became the most valuable service type in the water ecosystem, while the value of water ecological cultural was the smallest, with an average annual growth rate of only 2.36%. In addition, the key influencing factors of water ecosystem service value in Chongqing City were the permanent population, urbanization level, sewage discharge, per capita GDP, vegetation coverage, ecological water demand, and there are significant positive correlations with water ecological product supply,water ecological regulation and storage, water ecological maintenance, water ecological cultural service value(the mean R~2 value was 0.74). The results showed that the fitting degree of each regression model was high, and the influence of each factor on the water ecosystem services was significant. These studies not only lay a foundation for the analysis of the impact mechanism of water ecosystem service value, but also provide the decision-making reference for regional water ecosystem planning, development, utilization and protection.
In order to analyze the temporal variation characteristics and influencing factors of water ecosystem service value under the urbanization background, we use Person correlation analysis to obtain the main influencing factors, and further make a regression analysis on the main influencing factors of water ecosystem service on the basis of the evolution characteristics of service value of water ecosystem in Chongqing City from 2001 to 2015. The results showed that the value of water ecosystem services in Chongqing City had the fluctuating growth trend in the past 15 years, and the value of water ecosystem product supply, regulation and pollutant degradation was the main value, accounting for 66.44% of an average annual value; at the same time, the value of water ecological regulation and storage increased by 48.301 billion yuan, the proportion increased to 41.06%; it became the most valuable service type in the water ecosystem, while the value of water ecological cultural was the smallest, with an average annual growth rate of only 2.36%. In addition, the key influencing factors of water ecosystem service value in Chongqing City were the permanent population, urbanization level, sewage discharge, per capita GDP, vegetation coverage, ecological water demand, and there are significant positive correlations with water ecological product supply,water ecological regulation and storage, water ecological maintenance, water ecological cultural service value(the mean R~2 value was 0.74). The results showed that the fitting degree of each regression model was high, and the influence of each factor on the water ecosystem services was significant. These studies not only lay a foundation for the analysis of the impact mechanism of water ecosystem service value, but also provide the decision-making reference for regional water ecosystem planning, development, utilization and protection.
引文
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[30] 何太蓉.重庆市湿地资源利用中存在的问题及对策[J].重庆师范大学学报:自然科学版,2002,19(2):60-63.
[31] 韩松,何太蓉,班荣舶.升金湖湿地生态系统服务功能价值分析[J].中国水土保持,2015,22(6):24-27.
[32] 封瑛.梁子湖生态系统服务功能价值评估[D].武汉:湖北大学,2012.
[33] 姚玲,廖和平,邓春燕,等.基于土地利用变化的三峡库区生态服务价值损益分析:以重庆市巫山县为例[J].西南大学学报:自然科学版,2012,34(5):91-96.
[34] 任洪昌,张礼宏,王纯,等.闽江河口湿地与垦殖地的空气负离子含量研究[J].湿地科学,2014,12(4):424-428.
[2] 刘蕾,夏军,丰华丽,等.水生态系统服务功能变化的驱动因子分析:以三工河流域为例[J].干旱区地理:汉文版,2005,28(3):347-351.
[3] Ehrlich P R,Mooney H A.Extinction,substitution,and ecosystem services[J].BioScience,1983,33(4):248-254.
[4] 魏强,佟连军,杨丽花,等.三江平原湿地生态系统生物多样性保护价值[J].生态学报,2015,35(4):935-943.
[5] 张振明,刘俊国,申碧峰,等.永定河(北京段)河流生态系统服务价值评估[J].环境科学学报,2011,31(9):1851-1857.
[6] Elsin Y K,Kramer R A,Jenkins W A.Valuing drinking water provision as an ecosystem service in the Neuse River Basin[J].Journal of Water Resources Planning & Management,2010,136(4):474-482.
[7] 梁鸿,潘晓峰,余欣繁,等.深圳市水生态系统服务功能价值评估[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(9):1474-1487.
[8] Costanza R,d′Arge R,De Groot R,et al.The value of the world′s ecosystem services and natural capital[J].nature,1997,387(6630):253-260.
[9] Egan K J,Herriges J A,Kling C L,et al.Valuing water quality as a of water quality measures[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,2010,91(1):106-123.
[10] 欧阳志云,赵同谦,王效科,等.水生态服务功能分析及其间接价值评价[J].生态学报,2004,24(10):2091-2099.
[11] 张诚,严登华,郝彩莲,等.水的生态服务功能研究进展及关键支撑技术[J].水科学进展,2011,22(1):126-134.
[12] Dennedy-Frank P J,Muenich R L,Chaubey I,et al.Comparing two tools for ecosystem service assessments regarding water resources decisions[J].Journal of environmental management,2016,177(7):331-340.
[13] Houtven G V,Mansfield C,Phaneuf D J,et al.Combining expert elicitation and stated preference methods to value ecosystem services from improved lake water quality[J].Ecological Economics,2014,99(3):40-52.
[14] 谢高地,甄霖,鲁春霞,等.生态系统服务的供给、消费和价值化[J].资源科学,2008,30(1):93-99.
[15] Terrado M,Acuňa V,Ennaanay D,et al.Impact of climate extremes on hydrological ecosystem services in a heavily humanized Mediterranean basin[J].Ecological Indicators,2014,37(1):199-209.
[16] Ping Z,Liang H,Xin F,et al.Ecosystem service value assessment and contribution factor analysis of land use change in Miyun County,China[J].Sustainability,2015,7(6):7333-7356.
[17] 孙泽祥,刘志锋,何春阳,等.中国北方干燥地城市扩展过程对生态系统服务的影响:以呼和浩特—包头—鄂尔多斯城市群地区为例[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(10):1691-1704.
[18] Sample J E,Baber I,Badger R.A spatially distributed risk screening tool to assess climate and land use change impacts on water-related ecosystem services[J].Environmental Modelling & Software,2016,83(9):12-26.
[19] 裴厦,谢高地,鲁春霞,等.水利工程梯级开发对河流生态系统服务累积影响浅析:以猫跳河为例[J].资源科学,2011,33(8):1469-1474.
[20] 李景保,代勇,殷日新,等.三峡水库蓄水对洞庭湖湿地生态系统服务价值的影响[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(3):809-817.
[21] Toth F L.Ecosystems and human well-being:a framework for assessment[M].Washington DC.Island press,2003.
[22] 王浩,陈敏建,唐克旺.水生态环境价值和保护对策[M].北京:北京交通大学出版社,2004.
[23] 孙凤青,杨志平,景娟,等.重庆农产品及农资价格周报2016年第十二期[J].南方农业,2016,10(9):255-256.
[24] 殷文伟,牟敦果.宁波—舟山港腹地分析及对发展港口经济的意义[J].经济地理,2011,31(3):447-452.
[25] 吴腾飞,邓湘雯,黄文科,等.南县森林生态系统服务功能价值评估[J].中南林业科技大学学报,2015,35(10):109-115.
[26] 周涛,李天宏.延河流域土壤侵蚀经济损失评估[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(5):115-119.
[27] 闫人华,高俊峰,黄琪,等.太湖流域圩区水生态系统服务功能价值[J].生态学报,2015,35(15):5197-5206.
[28] 王晓青,郭劲松.三峡蓄水对小江CODCr,NH3-N及TP纳污能力的影响[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(4):674-678.
[29] 李烨楠,卢培利,宋福忠,等.排污权交易定价下的COD和氨氮削减成本分析研究[J].环境科学与管理,2014,39(3):50-53.
[30] 何太蓉.重庆市湿地资源利用中存在的问题及对策[J].重庆师范大学学报:自然科学版,2002,19(2):60-63.
[31] 韩松,何太蓉,班荣舶.升金湖湿地生态系统服务功能价值分析[J].中国水土保持,2015,22(6):24-27.
[32] 封瑛.梁子湖生态系统服务功能价值评估[D].武汉:湖北大学,2012.
[33] 姚玲,廖和平,邓春燕,等.基于土地利用变化的三峡库区生态服务价值损益分析:以重庆市巫山县为例[J].西南大学学报:自然科学版,2012,34(5):91-96.
[34] 任洪昌,张礼宏,王纯,等.闽江河口湿地与垦殖地的空气负离子含量研究[J].湿地科学,2014,12(4):424-428.