京津冀干旱时空演变规律分析（英文）
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摘要
Spatio-temporal patterns of drought from 1961 to 2013 over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) region of China were analyzed using the Palmer Drought Severity index(PDSI) based on 21 meteorological stations. Overall, changes in the mean-state of drought detected in recent decades were due to decreases in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The Empirical Orthogonal Functions(EOF) method was used to decompose drought into spatio-temporal patterns, and the first two EOF modes were analyzed. According to the first leading EOF mode(48.5%), the temporal variability(Principal Components, PC1) was highly positively correlated with annual series of PDSI(r=+0.99). The variance decomposition method was further applied to explain the inter-decadal temporal and spatial variations of drought relative to the total variation. We find that 90% of total variance was explained by time variance, and both total and time variance dramatically decreased from 1982 to 2013. The total variance was consistent with extreme climate events at the inter-decadal scale(r=0.71, p<0.01). Comparing the influence of climate change on the annual drought in two different long-term periods characterized by dramatic global warming(P1: 1961–1989 and P2: 1990–2013), we find that temperature sensitivity in the P2 was three times more than that in the P1.
Spatio-temporal patterns of drought from 1961 to 2013 over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) region of China were analyzed using the Palmer Drought Severity index(PDSI) based on 21 meteorological stations. Overall, changes in the mean-state of drought detected in recent decades were due to decreases in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The Empirical Orthogonal Functions(EOF) method was used to decompose drought into spatio-temporal patterns, and the first two EOF modes were analyzed. According to the first leading EOF mode(48.5%), the temporal variability(Principal Components, PC1) was highly positively correlated with annual series of PDSI(r=+0.99). The variance decomposition method was further applied to explain the inter-decadal temporal and spatial variations of drought relative to the total variation. We find that 90% of total variance was explained by time variance, and both total and time variance dramatically decreased from 1982 to 2013. The total variance was consistent with extreme climate events at the inter-decadal scale(r=0.71, p<0.01). Comparing the influence of climate change on the annual drought in two different long-term periods characterized by dramatic global warming(P1: 1961–1989 and P2: 1990–2013), we find that temperature sensitivity in the P2 was three times more than that in the P1.
Spatio-temporal patterns of drought from 1961 to 2013 over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) region of China were analyzed using the Palmer Drought Severity index(PDSI) based on 21 meteorological stations. Overall, changes in the mean-state of drought detected in recent decades were due to decreases in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The Empirical Orthogonal Functions(EOF) method was used to decompose drought into spatio-temporal patterns, and the first two EOF modes were analyzed. According to the first leading EOF mode(48.5%), the temporal variability(Principal Components, PC1) was highly positively correlated with annual series of PDSI(r=+0.99). The variance decomposition method was further applied to explain the inter-decadal temporal and spatial variations of drought relative to the total variation. We find that 90% of total variance was explained by time variance, and both total and time variance dramatically decreased from 1982 to 2013. The total variance was consistent with extreme climate events at the inter-decadal scale(r=0.71, p<0.01). Comparing the influence of climate change on the annual drought in two different long-term periods characterized by dramatic global warming(P1: 1961–1989 and P2: 1990–2013), we find that temperature sensitivity in the P2 was three times more than that in the P1.
引文
AghaKouchak A,Cheng L,Mazdiyasni O et al.,2014.Global warming and changes in risk of concurrent climate extremes:Insights from the 2014 California drought.Geophysical Research Letters,41(24):8847-8852.
Allen R G,Pereira L S,Raes D et al.,1998.Crop evapotranspiration:Guidelines for computing crop water requirements.FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56.Food and Agriculture of the United Nations,Rome.
Cai W,Zhang Y,Chen Q et al.,2015.Spatial patterns and temporal variability of drought in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan areas in China.Advances in Meteorology,1-14.
Chen D,Gao G,Xu C et al.,2005.Comparison of the Thornthwaite method and pan data with the standard Penman-Monteith estimates of reference evapotranspiration in China.Climate Research,28(2):123-132.
Dai A,2013.Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models.Nature Climate Change,3(1):52-58.
Diffenbaugh N S,Swain D L,Touma D,2015.Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,112(13):3931-3936.
Donat M G,Lowry A L,Alexander L V et al.,2016.More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions.Nature Climate Change,6(5):508-513.
Greve P,Orlowsky B,Mueller B et al.,2014.Global assessment of trends in wetting and drying over land.Nature Geoscience,7(10):716-721.
Griffin D,Anchukaitis K J,2014.How unusual is the 2012-2014 California drought?Geophysical Research Letters,41(24):9017-9023.
He J,Yang X,Li J et al.,2015.Spatiotemporal variation of meteorological droughts based on the daily comprehensive drought index in the Haihe River Basin,China.Natural Hazards,75(2):199-217.
Huang S,Li P,Huang Q et al.,2017.The propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought and its potential influence factors.Journal of Hydrology,547:184-195.
Jones H,Westra R,Sharma A,2010.Observed relationships between extreme sub-daily precipitation,surface temperature,and relative humidity.Geophysical Research Letters,37(22).doi:10.1029/2010GL045081.
Karnieli A,Agam N,Pinker R et al.,2010.Use of NDVI and land surface temperature for drought assessment:Merits and limitations.Journal of Climate,23(3):618-633.
Kendall M G,1975.Rank Correlation Methods.London:Charles Griffin.
Li Z,Chen Y,Yang J et al.,2014.Potential evapotranspiration and its attribution over the past 50 years in the arid region of Northwest China.Hydrological Processes,28(3):1025-1031.
Liu C,Xia J,2004.Water problems and hydrological research in the Yellow River and the Huai and Hai river basins of China.Hydrological Processes,18(12):2197-2210.
Mann H B,1945.Non-parametric test against trend.Econometrika,13:245-259.
Mishra A K,Singh V P,2010.A review of drought concepts.Journal of Hydrology,391(1):202-216.
Perry M A,Niemann J D,2008.Generation of soil moisture patterns at the catchment scale by EOF interpolation.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions,12(1):39-53.
Qin Y,Yang D,Lei H et al.,2015.Comparative analysis of drought based on precipitation and soil moisture indices in Haihe basin of North China during the period of 1960-2010.Journal of Hydrology,526:55-67.
Rajah K,O'Leary T,Turner A et al.,2014.Changes to the temporal distribution of daily precipitation.Geophysical Research Letters,41(24):8887-8894.
Santos J F,Pulido-Calvo I,Portela M M,2010.Spatial and temporal variability of droughts in Portugal.Water Resources Research,46(3):742-750.
Schwalm C R,Anderegg W R,Michalak A M et al.,2017.Global patterns of drought recovery.Nature,548(7666):202-205.
Sheffield J,Wood E F,Roderick M L,2012.Little change in global drought over the past 60 years.Nature,491(7424):435-438.
Sun F,Roderick M L,Farquhar G D et al.,2010.Partitioning the variance between space and time.Geophysical Research Letters,37(12).doi:10.1029/2010GL043323.
Sun F,Roderick M L,Farquhar G D,2012.Changes in the variability of global land precipitation.Geophysical Research Letters,39(19).doi:10.1029/2012GL053369.
Sun H,Wang Y,Chen J et al.,2017.Exposure of population to droughts in the Haihe River Basin under global warming of 1.5 and 2.0°C scenarios.Quaternary International,453:74-84.
Thornthwaite C W,1948.An approach toward a rational classification of climate.Geographical Review,38(1):55-94.
Wang H,Chen Y,Pan Y et al.,2015.Spatial and temporal variability of drought in the arid region of China and its relationships to teleconnection indices.Journal of hydrology,523:283-296.
Wang H,He S,2015.The north China/northeastern Asia severe summer drought in 2014.Journal of Climate,28(17):6667-6681.
Wild M,Gilgen H,Roesch A et al.,2005.From dimming to brightening:Decadal changes in solar radiation at Earth’s surface.Science,308(5723):847-850.
Wu Z,Xu H,Li Y et al.,2018.Climate and drought risk regionalisation in China based on probabilistic aridity and drought index.Science of The Total Environment,612:513-521.
Yang Q,Li M,Zheng Z et al.,2017.Regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices in China.Science China Earth Sciences,60(4):745-760.
Yang Y,McVicar T R,Donohue R J et al.,2017.Lags in hydrologic recovery following an extreme drought:Assessing the roles of climate and catchment characteristics.Water Resources Research,53:4821-4837.
Young I R,Zieger S,Babanin A V,2011.Global trends in wind speed and wave height.Science,332(6028):451-455.
Yu M,Li Q,Hayes M J et al.,2014.Are droughts becoming more frequent or severe in China based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index:1951-2010?International Journal of Climatology,34(3):545-558.
Zhai J,Huang J,Su B et al.,2017.Intensity-area-duration analysis of droughts in China 1960-2013.Climate Dynamics,48(1/2):151-168.
Zhang J,Sun F,Xu J et al.,2016.Dependence of trends in and sensitivity of drought over China(1961-2013)on potential evaporation model.Geophysical Research Letters,43(1):206-213.
Zhang L,Wu P,Zhou T,2017.Aerosol forcing of extreme summer drought over North China.Environmental Research Letters,12(3).doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5fb3.
Zhang M,He J,Wang B et al.,2013.Extreme drought changes in Southwest China from 1960 to 2009.Journal of Geographical Sciences,23(1):3-16.
Allen R G,Pereira L S,Raes D et al.,1998.Crop evapotranspiration:Guidelines for computing crop water requirements.FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56.Food and Agriculture of the United Nations,Rome.
Cai W,Zhang Y,Chen Q et al.,2015.Spatial patterns and temporal variability of drought in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan areas in China.Advances in Meteorology,1-14.
Chen D,Gao G,Xu C et al.,2005.Comparison of the Thornthwaite method and pan data with the standard Penman-Monteith estimates of reference evapotranspiration in China.Climate Research,28(2):123-132.
Dai A,2013.Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models.Nature Climate Change,3(1):52-58.
Diffenbaugh N S,Swain D L,Touma D,2015.Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,112(13):3931-3936.
Donat M G,Lowry A L,Alexander L V et al.,2016.More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions.Nature Climate Change,6(5):508-513.
Greve P,Orlowsky B,Mueller B et al.,2014.Global assessment of trends in wetting and drying over land.Nature Geoscience,7(10):716-721.
Griffin D,Anchukaitis K J,2014.How unusual is the 2012-2014 California drought?Geophysical Research Letters,41(24):9017-9023.
He J,Yang X,Li J et al.,2015.Spatiotemporal variation of meteorological droughts based on the daily comprehensive drought index in the Haihe River Basin,China.Natural Hazards,75(2):199-217.
Huang S,Li P,Huang Q et al.,2017.The propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought and its potential influence factors.Journal of Hydrology,547:184-195.
Jones H,Westra R,Sharma A,2010.Observed relationships between extreme sub-daily precipitation,surface temperature,and relative humidity.Geophysical Research Letters,37(22).doi:10.1029/2010GL045081.
Karnieli A,Agam N,Pinker R et al.,2010.Use of NDVI and land surface temperature for drought assessment:Merits and limitations.Journal of Climate,23(3):618-633.
Kendall M G,1975.Rank Correlation Methods.London:Charles Griffin.
Li Z,Chen Y,Yang J et al.,2014.Potential evapotranspiration and its attribution over the past 50 years in the arid region of Northwest China.Hydrological Processes,28(3):1025-1031.
Liu C,Xia J,2004.Water problems and hydrological research in the Yellow River and the Huai and Hai river basins of China.Hydrological Processes,18(12):2197-2210.
Mann H B,1945.Non-parametric test against trend.Econometrika,13:245-259.
Mishra A K,Singh V P,2010.A review of drought concepts.Journal of Hydrology,391(1):202-216.
Perry M A,Niemann J D,2008.Generation of soil moisture patterns at the catchment scale by EOF interpolation.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions,12(1):39-53.
Qin Y,Yang D,Lei H et al.,2015.Comparative analysis of drought based on precipitation and soil moisture indices in Haihe basin of North China during the period of 1960-2010.Journal of Hydrology,526:55-67.
Rajah K,O'Leary T,Turner A et al.,2014.Changes to the temporal distribution of daily precipitation.Geophysical Research Letters,41(24):8887-8894.
Santos J F,Pulido-Calvo I,Portela M M,2010.Spatial and temporal variability of droughts in Portugal.Water Resources Research,46(3):742-750.
Schwalm C R,Anderegg W R,Michalak A M et al.,2017.Global patterns of drought recovery.Nature,548(7666):202-205.
Sheffield J,Wood E F,Roderick M L,2012.Little change in global drought over the past 60 years.Nature,491(7424):435-438.
Sun F,Roderick M L,Farquhar G D et al.,2010.Partitioning the variance between space and time.Geophysical Research Letters,37(12).doi:10.1029/2010GL043323.
Sun F,Roderick M L,Farquhar G D,2012.Changes in the variability of global land precipitation.Geophysical Research Letters,39(19).doi:10.1029/2012GL053369.
Sun H,Wang Y,Chen J et al.,2017.Exposure of population to droughts in the Haihe River Basin under global warming of 1.5 and 2.0°C scenarios.Quaternary International,453:74-84.
Thornthwaite C W,1948.An approach toward a rational classification of climate.Geographical Review,38(1):55-94.
Wang H,Chen Y,Pan Y et al.,2015.Spatial and temporal variability of drought in the arid region of China and its relationships to teleconnection indices.Journal of hydrology,523:283-296.
Wang H,He S,2015.The north China/northeastern Asia severe summer drought in 2014.Journal of Climate,28(17):6667-6681.
Wild M,Gilgen H,Roesch A et al.,2005.From dimming to brightening:Decadal changes in solar radiation at Earth’s surface.Science,308(5723):847-850.
Wu Z,Xu H,Li Y et al.,2018.Climate and drought risk regionalisation in China based on probabilistic aridity and drought index.Science of The Total Environment,612:513-521.
Yang Q,Li M,Zheng Z et al.,2017.Regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices in China.Science China Earth Sciences,60(4):745-760.
Yang Y,McVicar T R,Donohue R J et al.,2017.Lags in hydrologic recovery following an extreme drought:Assessing the roles of climate and catchment characteristics.Water Resources Research,53:4821-4837.
Young I R,Zieger S,Babanin A V,2011.Global trends in wind speed and wave height.Science,332(6028):451-455.
Yu M,Li Q,Hayes M J et al.,2014.Are droughts becoming more frequent or severe in China based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index:1951-2010?International Journal of Climatology,34(3):545-558.
Zhai J,Huang J,Su B et al.,2017.Intensity-area-duration analysis of droughts in China 1960-2013.Climate Dynamics,48(1/2):151-168.
Zhang J,Sun F,Xu J et al.,2016.Dependence of trends in and sensitivity of drought over China(1961-2013)on potential evaporation model.Geophysical Research Letters,43(1):206-213.
Zhang L,Wu P,Zhou T,2017.Aerosol forcing of extreme summer drought over North China.Environmental Research Letters,12(3).doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5fb3.
Zhang M,He J,Wang B et al.,2013.Extreme drought changes in Southwest China from 1960 to 2009.Journal of Geographical Sciences,23(1):3-16.