耐用品、投入产出联系与货币政策
摘要
本文基于包含耐用品部门与非耐用品部门投入产出联系的动态随机一般均衡模型,考察了投入产出联系对于货币政策效应的影响。研究发现,部门之间投入产出联系扩大了货币政策的实际效应,并且降低了货币政策的名义效应。在此基础上,进一步考察了存在部门投入产出联系条件下的货币政策机制设计。结果表明:(1)存在部门投入产出联系的条件下,"天赐的巧合"无法成立;(2)如果货币政策当局以稳定产出缺口为目标,将无法稳定部门通胀;(3)如果耐用品的寿命足够长,以稳定耐用品部门通胀为目标的货币政策同时实现了产出的稳定。
引文
[1]孙巍,杨程博.收入分布变迁与消费结构转变---基于门限模型的非线性计量分析[J].数理统计与管理,2015,34(2):307-315.
[2]王谦,李超,侯建国.我国财政支农支出对农村居民消费的影响效应---基于1995-2015年分省面板数据的实证分析[J].经济与管理评论,2017(6):104-111.
[3]Alessandro C.,Giovanni M.Monetary Policy and the Relative Price of Durable Goods[R].IMF Working Paper,2017,No.WP/17/290.
[4]李建英,王绿荫,赵美凤.养老保险对我国城镇居民消费的影响[J].经济与管理评论,2018(3):53-61.
[5]李江一,李涵.城乡收入差距与居民消费结构:基于相对收入理论的视角[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016(8):97-112.
[6]蔡伟贤,朱峰.“新农合”对农村居民耐用品消费的影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015(5):72-87.
[7]吴嫤.中国居民消费结构研究[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2018年第1版.
[8]Barsky R.,House C.,Kimball M.Sticky-Price Models and Durable Goods[J].American Economic Review,2007,97(June):984-998.
[9]Barsky R.,Boehm C.,House C.,Kimball M.Monetary Policy and Durable Goods[R].Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Working Paper,2016,No.WP 2016-18.
[10]Christopher E.,Levin A.Optimal Monetary Policy with Durable and Nondurable Consumption Goods[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2006,53(7):1341-1359.
[11]Strum B.Monetary Policy in a Forward-Looking Input-Output Economy[J].Journal of Money,Credit,and Banking,2009,41(4):619-650.
[12]Kara E.Input-Output Connections between Sectors and Optimal Monetary Policy[R].National Bank of Belgium Working Papers,2009,No.166.
[13]Altissimo F.,Bilke L.,Levin A.,Mojon B.Sectoral and Aggregate Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area[J].Journal of the European Economic Association,2006,4(2-3):585-593.
[14]Cantelmo C.,Melina G.Monetary Policy and the Relative Price of Durable Goods[R].IMF Working Papers,2017,No.WP/17/290.
[15]Calvo G A.Staggered Prices in a Utility-Maximizing Framework[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1983,12(3):983-998
[16]Galí.The state of New Keynesian Economics:A Partial Assessment[J].Nber Working Papers,2018.
[17]Christiano L.,Eichenbaum M.,Trabandt M.Unemployment and Business Cycles[J].Econometrica,2016,84(4):1523-1569.
[18]Chen K.,Higgins P.,Waggoner D F.China ProGrowth Monetary Policy and Its Asymmetric Transmission[R].NBER Working Papers,2016,No.w22650.
[19]陈利锋.货币政策盯住目标应该考虑不平等吗[J].财贸经济,2018(4):51-66.
[20]杨智峰,陈霜华,汪伟.中国产业结构变化的动因分析---基于投入产出模型的实证研究[J].财经研究,2014(9):38-49.
[21]Justiniano A.,Primiceri G.,Tambalotti A.Is There a Trade-Off between Inflation and Output Stabilization?[J].American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,2013,5(2):1-31.
1 这一取值与我国现实情况相符:相关统计数据显示 ,我国居民在食品、教育、医疗以及文化娱乐等方面的支出占比相对较大。
[2]王谦,李超,侯建国.我国财政支农支出对农村居民消费的影响效应---基于1995-2015年分省面板数据的实证分析[J].经济与管理评论,2017(6):104-111.
[3]Alessandro C.,Giovanni M.Monetary Policy and the Relative Price of Durable Goods[R].IMF Working Paper,2017,No.WP/17/290.
[4]李建英,王绿荫,赵美凤.养老保险对我国城镇居民消费的影响[J].经济与管理评论,2018(3):53-61.
[5]李江一,李涵.城乡收入差距与居民消费结构:基于相对收入理论的视角[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016(8):97-112.
[6]蔡伟贤,朱峰.“新农合”对农村居民耐用品消费的影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015(5):72-87.
[7]吴嫤.中国居民消费结构研究[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2018年第1版.
[8]Barsky R.,House C.,Kimball M.Sticky-Price Models and Durable Goods[J].American Economic Review,2007,97(June):984-998.
[9]Barsky R.,Boehm C.,House C.,Kimball M.Monetary Policy and Durable Goods[R].Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Working Paper,2016,No.WP 2016-18.
[10]Christopher E.,Levin A.Optimal Monetary Policy with Durable and Nondurable Consumption Goods[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2006,53(7):1341-1359.
[11]Strum B.Monetary Policy in a Forward-Looking Input-Output Economy[J].Journal of Money,Credit,and Banking,2009,41(4):619-650.
[12]Kara E.Input-Output Connections between Sectors and Optimal Monetary Policy[R].National Bank of Belgium Working Papers,2009,No.166.
[13]Altissimo F.,Bilke L.,Levin A.,Mojon B.Sectoral and Aggregate Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area[J].Journal of the European Economic Association,2006,4(2-3):585-593.
[14]Cantelmo C.,Melina G.Monetary Policy and the Relative Price of Durable Goods[R].IMF Working Papers,2017,No.WP/17/290.
[15]Calvo G A.Staggered Prices in a Utility-Maximizing Framework[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1983,12(3):983-998
[16]Galí.The state of New Keynesian Economics:A Partial Assessment[J].Nber Working Papers,2018.
[17]Christiano L.,Eichenbaum M.,Trabandt M.Unemployment and Business Cycles[J].Econometrica,2016,84(4):1523-1569.
[18]Chen K.,Higgins P.,Waggoner D F.China ProGrowth Monetary Policy and Its Asymmetric Transmission[R].NBER Working Papers,2016,No.w22650.
[19]陈利锋.货币政策盯住目标应该考虑不平等吗[J].财贸经济,2018(4):51-66.
[20]杨智峰,陈霜华,汪伟.中国产业结构变化的动因分析---基于投入产出模型的实证研究[J].财经研究,2014(9):38-49.
[21]Justiniano A.,Primiceri G.,Tambalotti A.Is There a Trade-Off between Inflation and Output Stabilization?[J].American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,2013,5(2):1-31.
1 这一取值与我国现实情况相符:相关统计数据显示 ,我国居民在食品、教育、医疗以及文化娱乐等方面的支出占比相对较大。