基于多目标控制的苕溪流域农业产业结构调整
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摘要
利用多目标规划模型,以农业面源污染减排为目标,以农业经济发展和农产品需求保障等为约束,开展苕溪流域农业产业结构优化,基于2014年流域农业产业结构及排污现状,设置减产型、保产型、增产型3种不同发展情景。结果表明,在3种情景下农业面源等标污染减排量从大到小依次为减产型>保产型>增产型,但在不同地区存在一定的差异。产业结构优化结果显示,流域内产业结构变动幅度较大的趋势为露天蔬菜向设施蔬菜转型,猪牛的养殖规模大量缩减而羊的养殖规模适度扩大,而水稻种植、淡水养殖等变化幅度相对较小。在不同情景方案下水质预测结果同样显示,减产型方案对水质的改善优于保产型与增产型,但相较于保产型提升幅度不大。综合考虑流域面源污染控制需求、农业经济产出与水环境质量提升效果,保产型方案更加符合当前流域农业经济发展与环境保护的目的。
The optimization of agricultural production structure is an important way to control the agricultural non-point source(NPS) pollution. In this paper, a multi-objective programming model was used to optimize the agricultural production structure in the Tiaoxi watershed, with the objective of agricultural NPS pollution reduction. The development of agricultural economy and the demand for agricultural products were chosen as the constraints in the model. According to the agricultural output in the year of 2014, three schemes including less output, medium output and more output were optimized by the multi-objective programming model. The results showed that the reduction of agricultural NPS pollution load in the three schemes from high to low were less output scheme, medium output scheme, more output scheme, respectively. However, the reduction varied among different areas. The optimized results showed that the transformation of outdoor vegetable cultivation to facility vegetable cultivation was obvious compared with 2014. The scale of pigs and cattle culture decreased significantly, while sheep culture increased moderately. The adjustment of paddy and aquaculture was slight.The results of water quality prediction under different schemes also showed that the improvement of water quality under the less output scheme was better than the others, but it was not obvious as compared with the medium output scheme. Taking the control demand of non-point source pollution, the economic output of agriculture and the improvement effect of water environment quality into consideration, the medium output scheme is better for the current agricultural economic development and environmental protection in this watershed.
The optimization of agricultural production structure is an important way to control the agricultural non-point source(NPS) pollution. In this paper, a multi-objective programming model was used to optimize the agricultural production structure in the Tiaoxi watershed, with the objective of agricultural NPS pollution reduction. The development of agricultural economy and the demand for agricultural products were chosen as the constraints in the model. According to the agricultural output in the year of 2014, three schemes including less output, medium output and more output were optimized by the multi-objective programming model. The results showed that the reduction of agricultural NPS pollution load in the three schemes from high to low were less output scheme, medium output scheme, more output scheme, respectively. However, the reduction varied among different areas. The optimized results showed that the transformation of outdoor vegetable cultivation to facility vegetable cultivation was obvious compared with 2014. The scale of pigs and cattle culture decreased significantly, while sheep culture increased moderately. The adjustment of paddy and aquaculture was slight.The results of water quality prediction under different schemes also showed that the improvement of water quality under the less output scheme was better than the others, but it was not obvious as compared with the medium output scheme. Taking the control demand of non-point source pollution, the economic output of agriculture and the improvement effect of water environment quality into consideration, the medium output scheme is better for the current agricultural economic development and environmental protection in this watershed.
引文
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[4]李璇.水环境约束下洱海流域产业结构调整多目标优化研究.生态经济(学术版),2013(1):190-194.LI X.Multi-objective optimization of industrial structure based on water pollution control in Erhai Basin.Ecological Economy,2013(1):190-194.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[5]张国丰,马晓静,沙景华,等.水资源和水环境双重约束下的河北省产业结构调整研究.资源与产业,2016,18(4):73-81.ZHANG G F,MA X J,SHA J H,et al.Industrial structure adjustment under dural constraints of water resource environment in Hebei Province.Resources and Industries,2016,18(4):73-81.(in Chinese with English abstract)
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[8]WANG F E,TIAN P,YU J,et al.Variations in pollutant fluxes of rivers surrounding Taihu Lake in Zhejiang Province in 2008.Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,Parts A/B/C,2011,36(9/10/11):366-371.
[9]孙作雷.苕溪流域农业非点源污染风险评估研究.杭州:浙江大学,2015:13-19.SUN Z L.Risk assessment for nutrient loss of agricultural nonpoint pollution source in Tiaoxi watershed.Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2015:13-19.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[10]程炯,邓南荣,蔡雪娇,等.不同源类型农业非点源负荷特征研究:以新田小流域为例.生态环境学报,2008,17(6):2159-2162.CHENG J,DENG N R,CAI X J,et al.Study on the characteristics of different source types of agricultural nonpoint source load:taking Xintian small watershed as an example.Ecology and Environment,2008,17(6):2159-2162.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[11]冯云钰,罗龙皂,田光明.菜-稻耦合梯级消纳氮磷模式研究.浙江农业学报,2017,29(3):469-476.FENG Y Y,LUO L Z,TIAN G M.Study on greenhouse vegetables-paddy coupled mode in interception of nitrogen and phosphorus.Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis,2017,29(3):469-476.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[12]段亮,常江,段增强.地表管理与施肥方式对太湖流域旱地磷素流失的影响.农业环境科学学报,2007,26(3):24-28.DUAN L,CHANG J,DUAN Z Q.Surface managements and fertilization modes on phosphorus runoff from upland in Taihu Lake Region.Journal of Agro-Environment Science,2007,26(3):24-28.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[13]钱秀红,徐建民,施加春,等.杭嘉湖水网平原农业非点源污染的综合调查和评价.浙江大学学报(农业与生命科学版),2002,28(2):147-150.QIAN X H,XU J M,SI J C,et al.Comprehensive survey and evaluation of agricultural non-point source pollution in HangJia-Hu water net plain.Journal of Zhejiang University(Agriculture and Life Sciences),2002,28(2):147-150.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[14]王浩.湖泊流域水环境污染治理的创新思路与关键对策研究.北京:科学出版社,2010:35-80.WANG H.Research on Innovation and Key Countermeasures of Water Environmental Pollution Control in Lake Basin.Beijing:Science Press,2010:35-80.(in Chinese)
[15]赵广举,田鹏,穆兴民,等.基于PCRaster的流域非点源氮磷负荷估算.水科学进展,2012,23(1):80-86.ZHAO G J,TIAN P,MU X M,et al.Estimation of nitrogen and phosphorus loads in the Xitiaoxi catchment using PCRaster software.Advances in Water Science,2012,23(1):80-86.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[16]中国农业大学.家畜粪便学.上海:上海交通大学出版社,1997:58-59,81-92,265-273.China Agricultural University.Animal Fecal Science.Shanghai:Shanghai Jiao Tong University Press,1997:58-59,81-92,265-273.(in Chinese)
[17]牛若峰.农业技术经济手册.北京:农业出版社,1984:19-236.NIU R F.Manual of Agricultural Technology and Economy.Beijing:Agricultural Press,1984:19-236.(in Chinese)
[18]张大弟,陈佩青,支月娥.上海市郊4种地表径流及稻田水中的污染物浓度.上海环境科学,1997(9):4-6.ZHANG D D,CHEN P Q,ZHI Y E.The pollutant concentration in four surface runoffs and rice field water of Shanghai suburbs.Shanghai Environmental Sciences,1997(9):4-6.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[19]章明奎,王阳,黄超.水网平原地区不同种植类型农田氮磷流失特征.应用生态学报,2011,22(12):3211-3220.ZHANG M K,WANG Y,HUANG C.Characteristics of nitrogen and phosphorus runoff losses from croplands with different planting patterns in a riverine plain area of Zhejiang Province,East China.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2011,22(12):3211-3220.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[20]王子臣,邱丹,堵燕钰,等.太湖流域典型菜地地表径流及氮磷流失特征.江苏农业学报,2012,28(6):1501-1504.WANG Z C,QIU D,DU Y Y,et al.Characteristics of surface runoff and nitrogen and phosphorus losses in typical vegetable field of Taihu Lake Basin.Jiangsu Journal of Agricultural Sciences,2012,28(6):1501-1504.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[21]席运官,陈瑞冰,李国平,等.太湖流域坡地茶园径流流失规律.生态与农村环境学报,2010,26(4):381-385.XI Y G,CHEN R B,LI G P,et al.Surface runoff in tea gardens on slope land in Taihu Lake Region.Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2010,26(4):381-385.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[22]梁新强.太湖流域浙江片区非点源产排污核算方法.北京:科学出版社,2015:45-90.LIANG X Q.Calculation Method of Non-Point Source Discharge in Zhejiang Area of Taihu Basin.Beijing:Science Press,2015:45-90.(in Chinese)
[23]钟晓航,王飞儿,俞洁,等.基于WASP水质模型与基尼系数的水污染物总量分配:以南太湖苕溪入湖口区域为例.浙江大学学报(理学版),2015,42(2):181-188.ZHONG X H,WANG F E,YU J,et al.Application of WASPmodel and Gini coefficient in the total amount control of water pollutant:a case study in Tiaoxi estuary of South Taihu Lake.Journal of Zhejiang University(Science Edition),2015,42(2):181-188.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[2]李萍萍,刘继展.太湖流域农业结构多目标优化设计.农业工程学报,2009,25(10):198-203.LI P P,LIU J Z.Multi-objective optimization of agricultural structure in Tai Lake Region.Transactions of the CSAE,2009,25(10):198-203.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[3]杨珂玲,张宏志.基于产业结构调整视角的农业面源污染控制政策研究.生态经济,2015,31(3):89-92.YANG K L,ZHANG H Z.Research on agricultural non-point source pollution control policy from the perspective of industrial structure adjustment.Ecological Economy,2015,31(3):89-92.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[4]李璇.水环境约束下洱海流域产业结构调整多目标优化研究.生态经济(学术版),2013(1):190-194.LI X.Multi-objective optimization of industrial structure based on water pollution control in Erhai Basin.Ecological Economy,2013(1):190-194.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[5]张国丰,马晓静,沙景华,等.水资源和水环境双重约束下的河北省产业结构调整研究.资源与产业,2016,18(4):73-81.ZHANG G F,MA X J,SHA J H,et al.Industrial structure adjustment under dural constraints of water resource environment in Hebei Province.Resources and Industries,2016,18(4):73-81.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[6]程波,张泽,陈凌,等.太湖水体富营养化与流域农业面源污染的控制.农业环境科学学报,2005,24(增刊1):118-124.CHENG B,ZHANG Z,CHEN L,et al.Eutrophication of Taihu Lake and pollution from agricultural non-point sources in Lake Taihu Basin.Journal of Agro-Environment Science,2005,24(Suppl.1):118-124.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[7]李伟.苕溪流域地表水水质综合评价与非点源污染模拟研究.杭州:浙江大学,2013:1-25.LI W.The research on comprehensive evaluation of surface water quality and simulation of non-point source pollution within Tiaoxi.Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2013:1-25.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[8]WANG F E,TIAN P,YU J,et al.Variations in pollutant fluxes of rivers surrounding Taihu Lake in Zhejiang Province in 2008.Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,Parts A/B/C,2011,36(9/10/11):366-371.
[9]孙作雷.苕溪流域农业非点源污染风险评估研究.杭州:浙江大学,2015:13-19.SUN Z L.Risk assessment for nutrient loss of agricultural nonpoint pollution source in Tiaoxi watershed.Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2015:13-19.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[10]程炯,邓南荣,蔡雪娇,等.不同源类型农业非点源负荷特征研究:以新田小流域为例.生态环境学报,2008,17(6):2159-2162.CHENG J,DENG N R,CAI X J,et al.Study on the characteristics of different source types of agricultural nonpoint source load:taking Xintian small watershed as an example.Ecology and Environment,2008,17(6):2159-2162.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[11]冯云钰,罗龙皂,田光明.菜-稻耦合梯级消纳氮磷模式研究.浙江农业学报,2017,29(3):469-476.FENG Y Y,LUO L Z,TIAN G M.Study on greenhouse vegetables-paddy coupled mode in interception of nitrogen and phosphorus.Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis,2017,29(3):469-476.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[12]段亮,常江,段增强.地表管理与施肥方式对太湖流域旱地磷素流失的影响.农业环境科学学报,2007,26(3):24-28.DUAN L,CHANG J,DUAN Z Q.Surface managements and fertilization modes on phosphorus runoff from upland in Taihu Lake Region.Journal of Agro-Environment Science,2007,26(3):24-28.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[13]钱秀红,徐建民,施加春,等.杭嘉湖水网平原农业非点源污染的综合调查和评价.浙江大学学报(农业与生命科学版),2002,28(2):147-150.QIAN X H,XU J M,SI J C,et al.Comprehensive survey and evaluation of agricultural non-point source pollution in HangJia-Hu water net plain.Journal of Zhejiang University(Agriculture and Life Sciences),2002,28(2):147-150.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[14]王浩.湖泊流域水环境污染治理的创新思路与关键对策研究.北京:科学出版社,2010:35-80.WANG H.Research on Innovation and Key Countermeasures of Water Environmental Pollution Control in Lake Basin.Beijing:Science Press,2010:35-80.(in Chinese)
[15]赵广举,田鹏,穆兴民,等.基于PCRaster的流域非点源氮磷负荷估算.水科学进展,2012,23(1):80-86.ZHAO G J,TIAN P,MU X M,et al.Estimation of nitrogen and phosphorus loads in the Xitiaoxi catchment using PCRaster software.Advances in Water Science,2012,23(1):80-86.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[16]中国农业大学.家畜粪便学.上海:上海交通大学出版社,1997:58-59,81-92,265-273.China Agricultural University.Animal Fecal Science.Shanghai:Shanghai Jiao Tong University Press,1997:58-59,81-92,265-273.(in Chinese)
[17]牛若峰.农业技术经济手册.北京:农业出版社,1984:19-236.NIU R F.Manual of Agricultural Technology and Economy.Beijing:Agricultural Press,1984:19-236.(in Chinese)
[18]张大弟,陈佩青,支月娥.上海市郊4种地表径流及稻田水中的污染物浓度.上海环境科学,1997(9):4-6.ZHANG D D,CHEN P Q,ZHI Y E.The pollutant concentration in four surface runoffs and rice field water of Shanghai suburbs.Shanghai Environmental Sciences,1997(9):4-6.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[19]章明奎,王阳,黄超.水网平原地区不同种植类型农田氮磷流失特征.应用生态学报,2011,22(12):3211-3220.ZHANG M K,WANG Y,HUANG C.Characteristics of nitrogen and phosphorus runoff losses from croplands with different planting patterns in a riverine plain area of Zhejiang Province,East China.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2011,22(12):3211-3220.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[20]王子臣,邱丹,堵燕钰,等.太湖流域典型菜地地表径流及氮磷流失特征.江苏农业学报,2012,28(6):1501-1504.WANG Z C,QIU D,DU Y Y,et al.Characteristics of surface runoff and nitrogen and phosphorus losses in typical vegetable field of Taihu Lake Basin.Jiangsu Journal of Agricultural Sciences,2012,28(6):1501-1504.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[21]席运官,陈瑞冰,李国平,等.太湖流域坡地茶园径流流失规律.生态与农村环境学报,2010,26(4):381-385.XI Y G,CHEN R B,LI G P,et al.Surface runoff in tea gardens on slope land in Taihu Lake Region.Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2010,26(4):381-385.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[22]梁新强.太湖流域浙江片区非点源产排污核算方法.北京:科学出版社,2015:45-90.LIANG X Q.Calculation Method of Non-Point Source Discharge in Zhejiang Area of Taihu Basin.Beijing:Science Press,2015:45-90.(in Chinese)
[23]钟晓航,王飞儿,俞洁,等.基于WASP水质模型与基尼系数的水污染物总量分配:以南太湖苕溪入湖口区域为例.浙江大学学报(理学版),2015,42(2):181-188.ZHONG X H,WANG F E,YU J,et al.Application of WASPmodel and Gini coefficient in the total amount control of water pollutant:a case study in Tiaoxi estuary of South Taihu Lake.Journal of Zhejiang University(Science Edition),2015,42(2):181-188.(in Chinese with English abstract)