消费外流、结构失衡与经济发展
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摘要
基于VAR模型,本文梳理消费外流、居民消费结构与产业结构失衡、经济发展三者的逻辑,重点探讨消费外流与结构失衡的内生影响关系。VAR回归结果显示结构失衡的滞后二期对当期消费外流具有显著的正向影响;消费外流的滞后一期对当期结构失衡具有显著的正向影响。脉冲分析结果显示结构失衡的一个正冲击对消费外流的影响不仅在短期内影响大且显著,并且在长期也具有拖尾效应,而消费外流的一个正冲击对结构失衡短期内影响较大,呈现一定的波动,长期不具有拖尾效应。方差分解结果显示结构失衡对消费外流的影响较为突出,而消费外流对结构失衡的影响相对较小。积极调整产业结构以适应居民消费结构的快速升级,这不仅是解决我国当下大量消费外流的应急之策,更是实现经济可持续健康发展的长远之道。
Based on the VAR model, this paper combs the logic of the consumption outflow, the imbalance between the consumption structure and the industrial structure, and the economic development. The results of VAR regression show that second lag of structural imbalance has a significant positive effect on consumption outflow in the current period and one-stage lag of consumption outflow has a significant positive effect on the current structural imbalance. The results of pulse analysis show that a positive impact of structural imbalance not only has a great and significant impact on consumption outflow in the short term, but also has a trailing effect in the long run. However a positive shock of consumption outflow has a negative impact on structural imbalance.The short-term influence is bigger, showing certain fluctuation, and the result shows no trailing effect in the long-term. The result of variance decomposition shows that the influence of structural imbalance on consumption outflow is more prominent, while the influence of consumption outflow on structural imbalance is relatively small.Adjusting the industrial structure actively to adapt to the rapid upgrading of the resident consumption structure is not only the pressing strategy to solve the current mass consumption outflow of our country, but also the long-term plan to realize the sustainable and healthy development of the economy.
Based on the VAR model, this paper combs the logic of the consumption outflow, the imbalance between the consumption structure and the industrial structure, and the economic development. The results of VAR regression show that second lag of structural imbalance has a significant positive effect on consumption outflow in the current period and one-stage lag of consumption outflow has a significant positive effect on the current structural imbalance. The results of pulse analysis show that a positive impact of structural imbalance not only has a great and significant impact on consumption outflow in the short term, but also has a trailing effect in the long run. However a positive shock of consumption outflow has a negative impact on structural imbalance.The short-term influence is bigger, showing certain fluctuation, and the result shows no trailing effect in the long-term. The result of variance decomposition shows that the influence of structural imbalance on consumption outflow is more prominent, while the influence of consumption outflow on structural imbalance is relatively small.Adjusting the industrial structure actively to adapt to the rapid upgrading of the resident consumption structure is not only the pressing strategy to solve the current mass consumption outflow of our country, but also the long-term plan to realize the sustainable and healthy development of the economy.
引文
[1]刘胜,冯海波.税制结构与消费外溢:跨国证据[J].中国工业经济,2016,(6):22-38.
[2]Crouch,G.I.The Study of International Tourism Demand:a Review of Findings[J].Journal of Travel Research,1994,32(4):41-55.
[3]Lim,C.Review of International Tourism Demand Models[J].Annals of Tourism Research,1997,3(4):835-849.
[4]李香菊,赵娜.中国奢侈品消费外流的税收政策研究[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2015,(2):34-39.
[5]刘志彪.深化经济改革的一个逻辑框架---以“政府改革”推进供给侧结构性改革[J].探索与争鸣,2017,(6):99-104.
[6]孙早,许薛璐.产业创新与消费升级:基于供给侧结构性改革视角的经验研究[J].中国工业经济,2018,(7):98-116.
[7]钟宏.消费结构升级步伐加快[J].中国统计,2016,(8):78-78.
[8]褚敏,靳涛.为什么中国产业结构升级步履迟缓---基于地方政府行为与国有企业垄断双重影响的探究[J].财贸经济,2013,(3):112-122.
[9]刘伟,李绍荣.产业结构与经济增长[J].中国工业经济,2002,(5):14-21.
[10]文启湘,冉净斐.消费结构与产业结构的和谐:和谐性及其测度[J].中国工业经济,2005,(8):14-19.
[11]朱孔来,李静静,乐菲菲.中国城镇化进程与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].统计研究,2011,(9):80-87.
[12]蔺雪芹,王岱,任旺兵等.中国城镇化对经济发展的作用机制[J].地理研究,2013,(4):691-700.
[13]周辉.消费结构、产业结构与经济增长---基于上海市的实证研究[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2012,(2):27-31.
(1)这种方法是一种静态分析,为进行动态的测算,本文利用DEA方法计算居民消费结构与产业结构之间技术效率最优值,以其相应的年份最为标准状态值。
(2)居民消费支出结构(消费结构)与产业结构的失衡为最优和谐值减去测算出来的和谐值,最优和谐值为1。
(1)当VAR模型平稳时才可以做脉冲响应分析。
[2]Crouch,G.I.The Study of International Tourism Demand:a Review of Findings[J].Journal of Travel Research,1994,32(4):41-55.
[3]Lim,C.Review of International Tourism Demand Models[J].Annals of Tourism Research,1997,3(4):835-849.
[4]李香菊,赵娜.中国奢侈品消费外流的税收政策研究[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2015,(2):34-39.
[5]刘志彪.深化经济改革的一个逻辑框架---以“政府改革”推进供给侧结构性改革[J].探索与争鸣,2017,(6):99-104.
[6]孙早,许薛璐.产业创新与消费升级:基于供给侧结构性改革视角的经验研究[J].中国工业经济,2018,(7):98-116.
[7]钟宏.消费结构升级步伐加快[J].中国统计,2016,(8):78-78.
[8]褚敏,靳涛.为什么中国产业结构升级步履迟缓---基于地方政府行为与国有企业垄断双重影响的探究[J].财贸经济,2013,(3):112-122.
[9]刘伟,李绍荣.产业结构与经济增长[J].中国工业经济,2002,(5):14-21.
[10]文启湘,冉净斐.消费结构与产业结构的和谐:和谐性及其测度[J].中国工业经济,2005,(8):14-19.
[11]朱孔来,李静静,乐菲菲.中国城镇化进程与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].统计研究,2011,(9):80-87.
[12]蔺雪芹,王岱,任旺兵等.中国城镇化对经济发展的作用机制[J].地理研究,2013,(4):691-700.
[13]周辉.消费结构、产业结构与经济增长---基于上海市的实证研究[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2012,(2):27-31.
(1)这种方法是一种静态分析,为进行动态的测算,本文利用DEA方法计算居民消费结构与产业结构之间技术效率最优值,以其相应的年份最为标准状态值。
(2)居民消费支出结构(消费结构)与产业结构的失衡为最优和谐值减去测算出来的和谐值,最优和谐值为1。
(1)当VAR模型平稳时才可以做脉冲响应分析。