中国生产性服务业发展水平的时空特征及其影响因素
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摘要
基于标准差椭圆、ESDA-GWR和空间计量方法,对2003—2015年中国286个地级单元生产性服务业发展水平的时空特征及影响因素进行分析。结果显示:2003年以来,我国生产性服务业发展水平综合指数有较大提升,从沿海向内陆阶梯状递减的趋势逐渐增强,并形成沿海向内陆的"中心—外围"结构;空间上表现出在东—西方向上先极化后分散,南—北方向上先分散后极化的演变特征;城市间生产性服务业存在较强的正相关性,虽强度有所减弱但仍非常显著。影响因素结果显示:服务生产率、开放程度、城市化率、产权结构、知识资本密度对城市生产性服务业水平提高产生正向影响,而工业化程度对其产生抑制作用,挤出效应明显。
With the development of social economy, the deepening of labor division and the progress of science and technology, producer services have achieved unprecedented development in the global scope, and to a certain extent, which has exerted a decisive influence on the development trend of global "service-oriented economy". As an important part of the service industry, producer services are not only the main aspects of industrial transformation and upgrading and economic power transformation in China, but also the breakthrough point of promoting supply-side structural reform and leading the new normal of the economy. Basing on standard deviation ellipse, esda-gwr and spatial econometric analysis, this study explored the temporal-spatial characteristics and influential factors of the producer services development level of China's 286 prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2015. The research conclusions are as following: Firstly, since 2003, the comprehensive index of producer services development level has been greatly improved, and the trend of gradual decline from coastal areas to inland areas has been gradually strengthened. From the perspective of spatial pattern, it presents the "center-periphery" structure from the coast to the inland. Secondly, China's producer services development level shows obvious spatial evolution characteristics: in the east-west direction,it firstly polarizes and then disperses; in the south-north direction, it firstly disperses and then polarizes.Thirdly, China's producer services development displays a strong and positive spatial correlation between cities, although the intensity is weakened, it is still very significant. The spatial correlation pattern is characterized by the "echelon" structure of the east coast as a high concentration area, inland as a low concentration area. Finally, this paper introduces spatial econometric model and GWR when analyzing the influential factors of producer services.
With the development of social economy, the deepening of labor division and the progress of science and technology, producer services have achieved unprecedented development in the global scope, and to a certain extent, which has exerted a decisive influence on the development trend of global "service-oriented economy". As an important part of the service industry, producer services are not only the main aspects of industrial transformation and upgrading and economic power transformation in China, but also the breakthrough point of promoting supply-side structural reform and leading the new normal of the economy. Basing on standard deviation ellipse, esda-gwr and spatial econometric analysis, this study explored the temporal-spatial characteristics and influential factors of the producer services development level of China's 286 prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2015. The research conclusions are as following: Firstly, since 2003, the comprehensive index of producer services development level has been greatly improved, and the trend of gradual decline from coastal areas to inland areas has been gradually strengthened. From the perspective of spatial pattern, it presents the "center-periphery" structure from the coast to the inland. Secondly, China's producer services development level shows obvious spatial evolution characteristics: in the east-west direction,it firstly polarizes and then disperses; in the south-north direction, it firstly disperses and then polarizes.Thirdly, China's producer services development displays a strong and positive spatial correlation between cities, although the intensity is weakened, it is still very significant. The spatial correlation pattern is characterized by the "echelon" structure of the east coast as a high concentration area, inland as a low concentration area. Finally, this paper introduces spatial econometric model and GWR when analyzing the influential factors of producer services.
引文
[1] Michalak W Z, Fairbairn K J.The producer service complex of Edmonton the role and organization of producer services firms in a peripheral city[J]. Environmnt and Planning A, 1993,25(6):761-777.
[2] Baldwin J R, Beckstead D, Brown M W, et al. Agglomeration and the geography of localization economies in Canada[J]. Regional Studies, 2008,42(1):117-132.
[3] Daniels P W, Bryson J R. Manufacturing services and servicing manufacturing:Changing forms of production in advanced capitalist economies[J]. Urban Studies, 2002,39(5/6):977-991.
[4] Beyers W B. Impacts of IT advances and e-commerce on transportation in producer services[J]. Growth and Change, 2003,34(4),433-455.
[5]韩德超,张建华.中国生产性服务业发展的影响因素研究[J].管理科学,2008,21(6):81-87.[Han Dechao, Zhang Jianhua. A study on the factors influencing the development of China's producer services[J]. Journal of Management Sciences, 2008,21(6):81-87.]
[6]韩峰,王琢卓,阳立高.生产性服务业集聚、空间技术溢出效应与经济增长[J].产业经济研究,2014,13(2):1-10.[Han Feng, Wang Zhuozhuo, Yang Ligao. The agglomeration of producer services, spatial spillover effects of technology and economic growth[J]. Industrial Economics Research, 2014,13(2):1-10.]
[7] Juleff L E. Advanced producer services:Just a service to manufacturing?[J]. The Service Industries Journal, 1996,16(3):389-400.
[8] Halbert L. From sectors to function:Producer services, metropolisation and agglomeration forces in the Ile-de-France region fows Belgeo[J]. Special Issue on the Advanced Services Sectors in European Urban Regions, 2007,24(3):73-94.
[9] Hanssens H, Derudder B, Witlox F. Are advanced producer services connectors for regional economies? An exploration of the geographies of advanced producer service procurement in Belgium[J].Geoforum, 2013,47(3):12-21.
[10]Wernerheim C M, Sharpe C."High order"producer services in metropolitan Canada:How footloose are they?[J]. Regional Studies,2003,37(5):469-490.
[11]Lundquist K J, Olander L O, Henning M S. Producer services:Growth and roles in long-term economic development[J]. The Service Industries Journal, 2008,28(4):463-472.
[12]Wood P. Knowledge-intensive services and urban innovativeness[J]. Urban Studies, 2002,39(5/6):993-1002.
[13]Graham D J. Identifying urbanization and localization externalities in manufacturing and service industries[J]. Papers in Regional Science, 2009,88(1):63-84.
[14]Alan M. Producer service linkages and industrial innovation:Results of a twelve-year tracking study of New York state manufactures[J]. Growth and Change, 2008,39(1):1-23.
[15]Guerrieri P, Meliciani V. International Competitiveness in Producer Services[R]. Rome:SETI, 2003.
[16]李佳洺,孙铁山,张文忠.中国生产性服务业空间集聚特征与模式研究——基于地级市的实证分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(4):385-393.[Li Jiaming, Sun Tieshan, Zhang Wenzhong. Spatial cluster characteristics and modes of producter services in China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014,34(4):385-393.]
[17]席强敏,李国平.京津冀生产性服务业空间分工特征及溢出效应[J].地理学报,2015,70(12):1926-1938.[Xi Qiangmin, Li Guoping.Characteristics and spillover effects of space division of producer service in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region:Based on spatial panel model[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015,70(12):1926-1938.]
[18]闫小培,钟韵.区域中心城市生产性服务业的外向功能特征研究——以广州市为例[J].地理科学,2005,25(5):537-543.[Yan Xiaopei, Zhong Yun. Characteristics of external function of producer services of regional centers:Case of Guangzhou, China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2005,25(5):537-543.]
[19]王成东,綦良群,蔡渊渊.装备制造业与生产性服务业融合影响因素研究[J].工业技术经济,2015(2):134-142.[Wang Chengdong, Qi Liangqun, Cai Yuanyuan. Study on the convergence process and influence factors of equipment manufacturing industry and producer service industry[J]. Journal of Industrial Technological Economics,2015(2):134-142.]
[20]张清正,李国平.中国科技服务业集聚发展及影响因素研究[J].中国软件学,2015,30(7):75-93.[Zhang Qingzheng, Li Guoping. Research on agglomeration of science and technology service industry and its influencing factors in China[J]. China Soft Science, 2015,30(7):75-93.]
[21]毕斗斗,方远平,Bryson John,等.中国生产性服务业发展水平的时空差异及其影响因素——基于省域的空间计量分析[J].经济地理,2015,35(8):104-113.[Bi Doudou, Fang Yuanping, Bryson John,et al. Spatial and temporal difference and influential factors of China's productive services development:A spatial econometrics analysis perspective[J]. Economic Geography, 2015,35(8):104-113.]
[22]程大中.中国生产性服务业的水平、结构及影响——基于投入产出法的国际比较研究[J].经济研究,2008(1):76-88.[Cheng Dazhong. Development level, structure, and impact of producer services in China:An international comparison based on input-out approach[J]. Geographical Research, 2008(1):76-88.]
[23]刘锴,李丹利,刘桂春,等.中国沿海地区生产性服务业发展态势及驱动因素分析[J].地理科学,2018,38(9):1543-1550.[Liu Kai, Li Danli, Liu Guichun, et al. Analysis of development trend and driving factors of producer services in coastal areas of China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2018,38(9):1543-1550.]
[24]刘曙华,沈玉芳.生产性服务业的区位驱动力与区域经济发展研究[J].人文地理,2007,22(1):112-116.[Liu Shuhua, Shen Yufang.Study on the locational driving force of producer services and regional economy[J]. Human Geography, 2007,22(1):112-116.]
[25]白雪,雷磊.我国城市群“两化”融合水平时空变化分析[J].经济地理,2014,34(7):41-52.[Bai Xue, Lei Lei. A Dynamic Space-time Analysis on the level of integration of informatization and industrialization in China:A case study of 17 regional urban agglomerations[J]. Economic Geography, 2014,34(7):41-52.]
[26]赵璐,赵作权.基于特征椭圆的中国经济空间分异研究[J].地理科学,2014,34(8):979-986.[Zhao Lu, Zhao Zuoquan. Projecting the spatial variation of economic based on the specific ellipses in China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014,34(8):979-986.]
[27]陈培阳,朱熹钢.基于不同尺度的中国区域经济差异[J].地理学报,2012,67(8):1085-1097.[Chen Peiyang, Zhu Xigang. Regional inequalities in China at different scales[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(8):1085-1097.]
[28]冯长春,曾赞荣,崔娜娜.2000年以来中国区域经济差异的时空演变[J].地理研究,2015,34(2):234-246.[Feng Changchun, Zeng Zanrong, Cui Nana. The economic disparities and their spatio-temporal evolution in China since 2000[J]. Geographical Research, 2015,34(2):234-246.]
[29]周沂,沈昊婧,贺灿飞.武汉城市群经济整合及其影响因素[J].经济地理,2013,33(2):53-60.[Zhou Yi, Shen Haojing, He Canfei. Economic integration and its influencing factors in the Wuhan urban agglomeration[J]. Economic Geography, 2013,33(2):53-60.]
[30]胡艳兴,潘竟虎,陈蜓,等.基于ESDA和GWR的中国地级及以上城市“四化”协调发展时空分异格局[J].经济地理,2015,35(5):45-54.[Hu Yanxing, Pan Jinghu, Chen Yan, et al. Spatiotemporal pattern of industrialization, information, urbanization and agricultural modernization of prefecture level cities or above in China based on ESDA and GWR[J]. Economic Geography, 2015,35(5):45-54.]
[31]尹上岗,宋伟轩,马志飞,等.南京市住宅价格时空分异格局及其影响因素分析——基于地理加权回归模型的实证研究[J].人文地理,2018,33(3):68-77.[Yin Shanggang, Song Weixuan, Ma Zhifei,et al. Spatial differentation and inflencing factors analysis of housing prices in Nanjing:Based on geographically weighted regression model[J]. Human Geography, 2018,33(3):68-77.]
[32]Elhorst J P. Specification and estimation of spatial panel data models[J]. International Regional Scinece Review, 2003,26(3):244-268.
[2] Baldwin J R, Beckstead D, Brown M W, et al. Agglomeration and the geography of localization economies in Canada[J]. Regional Studies, 2008,42(1):117-132.
[3] Daniels P W, Bryson J R. Manufacturing services and servicing manufacturing:Changing forms of production in advanced capitalist economies[J]. Urban Studies, 2002,39(5/6):977-991.
[4] Beyers W B. Impacts of IT advances and e-commerce on transportation in producer services[J]. Growth and Change, 2003,34(4),433-455.
[5]韩德超,张建华.中国生产性服务业发展的影响因素研究[J].管理科学,2008,21(6):81-87.[Han Dechao, Zhang Jianhua. A study on the factors influencing the development of China's producer services[J]. Journal of Management Sciences, 2008,21(6):81-87.]
[6]韩峰,王琢卓,阳立高.生产性服务业集聚、空间技术溢出效应与经济增长[J].产业经济研究,2014,13(2):1-10.[Han Feng, Wang Zhuozhuo, Yang Ligao. The agglomeration of producer services, spatial spillover effects of technology and economic growth[J]. Industrial Economics Research, 2014,13(2):1-10.]
[7] Juleff L E. Advanced producer services:Just a service to manufacturing?[J]. The Service Industries Journal, 1996,16(3):389-400.
[8] Halbert L. From sectors to function:Producer services, metropolisation and agglomeration forces in the Ile-de-France region fows Belgeo[J]. Special Issue on the Advanced Services Sectors in European Urban Regions, 2007,24(3):73-94.
[9] Hanssens H, Derudder B, Witlox F. Are advanced producer services connectors for regional economies? An exploration of the geographies of advanced producer service procurement in Belgium[J].Geoforum, 2013,47(3):12-21.
[10]Wernerheim C M, Sharpe C."High order"producer services in metropolitan Canada:How footloose are they?[J]. Regional Studies,2003,37(5):469-490.
[11]Lundquist K J, Olander L O, Henning M S. Producer services:Growth and roles in long-term economic development[J]. The Service Industries Journal, 2008,28(4):463-472.
[12]Wood P. Knowledge-intensive services and urban innovativeness[J]. Urban Studies, 2002,39(5/6):993-1002.
[13]Graham D J. Identifying urbanization and localization externalities in manufacturing and service industries[J]. Papers in Regional Science, 2009,88(1):63-84.
[14]Alan M. Producer service linkages and industrial innovation:Results of a twelve-year tracking study of New York state manufactures[J]. Growth and Change, 2008,39(1):1-23.
[15]Guerrieri P, Meliciani V. International Competitiveness in Producer Services[R]. Rome:SETI, 2003.
[16]李佳洺,孙铁山,张文忠.中国生产性服务业空间集聚特征与模式研究——基于地级市的实证分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(4):385-393.[Li Jiaming, Sun Tieshan, Zhang Wenzhong. Spatial cluster characteristics and modes of producter services in China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014,34(4):385-393.]
[17]席强敏,李国平.京津冀生产性服务业空间分工特征及溢出效应[J].地理学报,2015,70(12):1926-1938.[Xi Qiangmin, Li Guoping.Characteristics and spillover effects of space division of producer service in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region:Based on spatial panel model[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015,70(12):1926-1938.]
[18]闫小培,钟韵.区域中心城市生产性服务业的外向功能特征研究——以广州市为例[J].地理科学,2005,25(5):537-543.[Yan Xiaopei, Zhong Yun. Characteristics of external function of producer services of regional centers:Case of Guangzhou, China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2005,25(5):537-543.]
[19]王成东,綦良群,蔡渊渊.装备制造业与生产性服务业融合影响因素研究[J].工业技术经济,2015(2):134-142.[Wang Chengdong, Qi Liangqun, Cai Yuanyuan. Study on the convergence process and influence factors of equipment manufacturing industry and producer service industry[J]. Journal of Industrial Technological Economics,2015(2):134-142.]
[20]张清正,李国平.中国科技服务业集聚发展及影响因素研究[J].中国软件学,2015,30(7):75-93.[Zhang Qingzheng, Li Guoping. Research on agglomeration of science and technology service industry and its influencing factors in China[J]. China Soft Science, 2015,30(7):75-93.]
[21]毕斗斗,方远平,Bryson John,等.中国生产性服务业发展水平的时空差异及其影响因素——基于省域的空间计量分析[J].经济地理,2015,35(8):104-113.[Bi Doudou, Fang Yuanping, Bryson John,et al. Spatial and temporal difference and influential factors of China's productive services development:A spatial econometrics analysis perspective[J]. Economic Geography, 2015,35(8):104-113.]
[22]程大中.中国生产性服务业的水平、结构及影响——基于投入产出法的国际比较研究[J].经济研究,2008(1):76-88.[Cheng Dazhong. Development level, structure, and impact of producer services in China:An international comparison based on input-out approach[J]. Geographical Research, 2008(1):76-88.]
[23]刘锴,李丹利,刘桂春,等.中国沿海地区生产性服务业发展态势及驱动因素分析[J].地理科学,2018,38(9):1543-1550.[Liu Kai, Li Danli, Liu Guichun, et al. Analysis of development trend and driving factors of producer services in coastal areas of China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2018,38(9):1543-1550.]
[24]刘曙华,沈玉芳.生产性服务业的区位驱动力与区域经济发展研究[J].人文地理,2007,22(1):112-116.[Liu Shuhua, Shen Yufang.Study on the locational driving force of producer services and regional economy[J]. Human Geography, 2007,22(1):112-116.]
[25]白雪,雷磊.我国城市群“两化”融合水平时空变化分析[J].经济地理,2014,34(7):41-52.[Bai Xue, Lei Lei. A Dynamic Space-time Analysis on the level of integration of informatization and industrialization in China:A case study of 17 regional urban agglomerations[J]. Economic Geography, 2014,34(7):41-52.]
[26]赵璐,赵作权.基于特征椭圆的中国经济空间分异研究[J].地理科学,2014,34(8):979-986.[Zhao Lu, Zhao Zuoquan. Projecting the spatial variation of economic based on the specific ellipses in China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014,34(8):979-986.]
[27]陈培阳,朱熹钢.基于不同尺度的中国区域经济差异[J].地理学报,2012,67(8):1085-1097.[Chen Peiyang, Zhu Xigang. Regional inequalities in China at different scales[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(8):1085-1097.]
[28]冯长春,曾赞荣,崔娜娜.2000年以来中国区域经济差异的时空演变[J].地理研究,2015,34(2):234-246.[Feng Changchun, Zeng Zanrong, Cui Nana. The economic disparities and their spatio-temporal evolution in China since 2000[J]. Geographical Research, 2015,34(2):234-246.]
[29]周沂,沈昊婧,贺灿飞.武汉城市群经济整合及其影响因素[J].经济地理,2013,33(2):53-60.[Zhou Yi, Shen Haojing, He Canfei. Economic integration and its influencing factors in the Wuhan urban agglomeration[J]. Economic Geography, 2013,33(2):53-60.]
[30]胡艳兴,潘竟虎,陈蜓,等.基于ESDA和GWR的中国地级及以上城市“四化”协调发展时空分异格局[J].经济地理,2015,35(5):45-54.[Hu Yanxing, Pan Jinghu, Chen Yan, et al. Spatiotemporal pattern of industrialization, information, urbanization and agricultural modernization of prefecture level cities or above in China based on ESDA and GWR[J]. Economic Geography, 2015,35(5):45-54.]
[31]尹上岗,宋伟轩,马志飞,等.南京市住宅价格时空分异格局及其影响因素分析——基于地理加权回归模型的实证研究[J].人文地理,2018,33(3):68-77.[Yin Shanggang, Song Weixuan, Ma Zhifei,et al. Spatial differentation and inflencing factors analysis of housing prices in Nanjing:Based on geographically weighted regression model[J]. Human Geography, 2018,33(3):68-77.]
[32]Elhorst J P. Specification and estimation of spatial panel data models[J]. International Regional Scinece Review, 2003,26(3):244-268.