世界主要国家能源消费碳排放脱钩及驱动因素研究
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摘要
利用碳排放Tapio脱钩弹性分解模型对世界主要国家碳排放与经济增长脱钩关系进行研究,探讨不同阶段脱钩关系特征及主要驱动因素的演变历程。研究表明:中国碳排放与GDP脱钩状态整体为弱脱钩,2014年开始,中国碳排放出现负增长,脱钩状态呈强脱钩。美国脱钩状态整体呈较为理想的弱脱钩,2006年以后美国碳排放实现负增长,碳排放与GDP强脱钩,这主要归功于美国能源结构优化升级。印度脱钩状态较为恶化。日本脱钩状态整体呈弱脱钩。在驱动因素研究过程中发现,能源强度和经济增长效应是影响中国、美国、印度和日本碳排放与GDP脱钩的主要因素,除此之外,印度碳排放还受人口效应的影响较大,能源结构效应对日本的碳排放与GDP脱钩影响较大。
The relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in major countries of the world is studied with carbon emission Tapio decoupling elastic decomposition model. The characteristics of decoupling at different stages and the evolution of major drivers are discussed. The results indicate that carbon emissions and GDP decoupling of China are generally weak decoupling. Since 2014,China's carbon emissions have experienced negative growth,and the decoupling state has been strongly decoupled. The overall decoupling state of the US is ideally weak decoupling. The US carbon emissions achieved negative growth,and carbon emissions were strongly decoupled from GDP after 2006 due to the optimization and upgrading of energy structure. The decoupling state in India is worse and Japan's decoupling state is weakly decoupled. Research of driving factors indicate that energy intensity and economic growth effects are the main factors affecting the decoupling of carbon emissions from GDP in China,the United States,India and Japan. In addition,India 's carbon emissions are also greatly affected by the population effect,and the energy structure effect has a greater impact on Japan's carbon emissions and GDP decoupling.
The relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in major countries of the world is studied with carbon emission Tapio decoupling elastic decomposition model. The characteristics of decoupling at different stages and the evolution of major drivers are discussed. The results indicate that carbon emissions and GDP decoupling of China are generally weak decoupling. Since 2014,China's carbon emissions have experienced negative growth,and the decoupling state has been strongly decoupled. The overall decoupling state of the US is ideally weak decoupling. The US carbon emissions achieved negative growth,and carbon emissions were strongly decoupled from GDP after 2006 due to the optimization and upgrading of energy structure. The decoupling state in India is worse and Japan's decoupling state is weakly decoupled. Research of driving factors indicate that energy intensity and economic growth effects are the main factors affecting the decoupling of carbon emissions from GDP in China,the United States,India and Japan. In addition,India 's carbon emissions are also greatly affected by the population effect,and the energy structure effect has a greater impact on Japan's carbon emissions and GDP decoupling.
引文
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[15]张毅瑜.福建省碳排放脱钩的影响因素与情景分析[J].西南石油大学学报(社会科学版),2015,17(4):13-15.
[16]黄青.中国经济增长与资源环境的脱钩研究[D].南京:南京财经大学,2016.
[17]邓林.碳排放驱动因素分析及其对策研究[D].无锡:江南大学,2014.
[2]范体军,骆瑞玲,范耀东,等.我国化学工业二氧化碳排放影响因素研究[J].中国软科学,2013,27(3):166-174.
[3]梁日忠,张林浩. 1990—2008年中国化学工业碳排放脱钩和反弹效应研究[J].资源科学,2013,35(2):32-38.
[4]刘佳,陈兴鹏,张子龙.中国旅游业碳排放特征及其因素分解[J].资源与产业,2017,19(3):67-76.
[5]胡颖,褚大建.中国建筑业CO2排放与产值、能耗的脱钩分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(8):50-57.
[6]刘渝,李莱.中国各省物流业碳排放的脱钩及影响因素研究[J].环境科学与技术,2018,41(5):177-181.
[7]罗世兴,吴青.中国采矿业能源消费碳排放脱钩及因素分解分析[J].资源与产业,2018,20(1):61-67.
[8]张新林,王强,王长建,等.新疆1990—2010年能源消费碳排放脱钩及其驱动因素分析[J].资源与产业,2014,16(2):76-82.
[9]郝丽,姜创业,孙娴,等.陕西省能源消费碳排放影响因素分析与政策启示[J].水土保持研究,2013(6):326-330.
[10]盖美,曹桂艳,田成诗,等.辽宁沿海经济带能源消费碳排放与区域经济增长脱钩分析[J].资源科学,2014,36(6):1267-1277.
[11]王淑纳.山东省碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系及驱动因素[J].科技管理研究,2014,(16):242-248.
[12]盖美,胡杭爱,柯丽娜.长江三角洲地区资源环境与经济增长脱钩分析[J].自然资源学报, 2013, 28(2):185-198.
[13]彭佳雯,黄贤金,钟太洋,等.中国经济增长与能源碳排放的脱钩研究[J].资源科学,2011,33(4):626-633.
[14]孙叶飞,周敏.中国能源消费碳排放与经济增长脱钩关系及驱动因素研究[J].经济与管理评论,2017(6):21-30.
[15]张毅瑜.福建省碳排放脱钩的影响因素与情景分析[J].西南石油大学学报(社会科学版),2015,17(4):13-15.
[16]黄青.中国经济增长与资源环境的脱钩研究[D].南京:南京财经大学,2016.
[17]邓林.碳排放驱动因素分析及其对策研究[D].无锡:江南大学,2014.