智能机器人与劳动力市场研究新进展
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摘要
近年来大量智能机器人被投入到工业生产进程中,"去人工化"已成为生产领域发展的主要趋势。与此同时,"智能机器替代人力"这一现象引起了社会各界的重视与讨论。文章通过回顾和梳理国内外文献,发现人工智能和机器人等自动化技术的发展主要是通过替代效应和创造效应来影响劳动力需求,并对劳动力质量、工资及劳动生产率产生影响。文章主要从劳动力就业、劳动生产率、智能机器人在我国的应用和我国劳动力市场发展现状等方面阐述智能机器人对劳动力市场的重要影响。在此基础上,文章提出未来进一步研究的方向。
In recent years, a large number of intelligent robots have been applied in industrial production. The phenomenon of "intelligent machines replacing manpower" has attracted attention and led to discussion from all walks of life. By reviewing and summarizing domestic and foreign literature, this paper argues that the development of automation technologies such as artificial intelligence and robots mainly affects labor demand through substitution and creation effects, and has impact on labor quality, labor wages and labor productivity. This paper mainly extends the important influence of intelligent robots on the labor market from labor employment, labor productivity, the application of intelligent robots in China and the current situation of the Chinese labor market. And this paper proposes the direction or future research.
In recent years, a large number of intelligent robots have been applied in industrial production. The phenomenon of "intelligent machines replacing manpower" has attracted attention and led to discussion from all walks of life. By reviewing and summarizing domestic and foreign literature, this paper argues that the development of automation technologies such as artificial intelligence and robots mainly affects labor demand through substitution and creation effects, and has impact on labor quality, labor wages and labor productivity. This paper mainly extends the important influence of intelligent robots on the labor market from labor employment, labor productivity, the application of intelligent robots in China and the current situation of the Chinese labor market. And this paper proposes the direction or future research.
引文
崔友平、金玉国、王晓,2015:“技术进步对中国就业影响的实证分析:1995～2013年”,《经济社会体制比较》,2015,4:154—164。
杜鹃,2017:“论智能机器对就业的影响”,《开放导报》,2017,2:68—72。
方建国、尹丽波,2012:“技术创新对就业的影响:创造还是毁灭工作岗位——以福建省为例”,《中国人口科学》,2012,6:34—43。
李丫丫、潘安,2017:“工业机器人进口对中国制造业生产率提升的机理及实证研究”,《世界经济研究》,2017,3:87—96。
刘书祥、曾国彪,2010:“技术进步对中国就业影响的实证分析:1978～2006”,《经济学家》,2010,4:93—100。
马岚,2015:“中国会出现机器人对人工的规模替代吗?”,《世界经济研究》,2015,10:71—79。
盛垒、洪娜,2014:“美国‘再工业化’进展及对中国的影响”,《世界经济研究》,2014,7:80—86。
王高望、史博文、叶海云,2018:“中国产业结构转型特征事实的一个理论解释”,《经济学报》,2018,2:43—62。
王君、张于喆、张义博、洪群联,2017:“人工智能等新技术进步影响就业的机理与对策”,《宏观经济研究》,2017,10:169—181。
周文斌,2017:“机器人应用对人力资源管理的影响研究”,《南京大学学报(哲学·人文科学·社会科学)》,2017,6:23—34。
朱巧玲、李敏,2018:“人工智能、技术进步与劳动力结构优化对策研究”,《科技进步与对策》,2018,35(6):36—41。
大卫·李嘉图,2013:《政治经济学及赋税原理》,郭大力、王亚南译,北京:商务印书馆。
马克思,2004:《资本论(第一卷)》,中共中央编译局译,北京:人民出版社。
熊彼特,1990:《经济发展理论》,何畏、易家译,北京:商务印书馆。
Acemoglu, D., and P.Restrepo, 2017. “Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets.” MIT Boston University Working Paper.
——2018a. “Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work.” NBER Working Paper.
——2018b. “The Race between Machine: Implication of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment.” American Economic Review. 108(6):1488-1542.
——2018c. “Low-Skill and High-Skill Automation.” Journal of Human Capital. 12(2):204-232.
——2018d. “Demographics and Automation.” NBER Working Paper.
Aghion, P., and P.Howitt, 1994. “Growth and Unemployment.” Review of Economic Studies. 61(3):477-497.
Alexopoulos, M., and J.Cohen, 2016. “The Medium is the Measure: Technical Change and Employment, 1909-1949.” Review of Economics and Statistics. 98(4): 792-810.
Arntz, M., T.Gregory., and U.Zierahn, 2016. “The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis.” OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers.
Autor, D.H., 2015. “Why are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation.” Journal of Economic Perspectives. 29(3):3-30.
Autor, D.H., F.Levy., and R.J.Murnane, 2003. “The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 118(4):1279–1333.
Autor, D.H., and A.Salomons, 2017. “Does Productivity Growth Threaten Employment?” NBER Working Paper.
——2018. “Is Automation Labor-displacing?: Productivity Growth, Employment, and the Labor Share.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.
Benzell, S.G., L.J.Kotlikoff, G.LaGarda., and J.D.Sachs, 2015. “Robots are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacemen.” NBER Working Paper.
Berg, A., E.F.Buffie, and L.F.Zanna, 2016. “Robots, Growth, and Inequality.” Finance & Development. 53(3):10-13.
Bessen, J., 2016. “How Computer Automation Affects Occupations: Technology, Jobs, and Skills.” Boston University School of Law, Law and Economics Research Paper.
Bresnahan, T.F., E.Brynjolfsson., and L.M.Hitt, 2002. “Information Technology, Workplace Organization, and the Demand for Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 117 (1):339-376.
Brynjolfsson, E., and L.M.Hitt, 2003. “Computing Productivity Firm-Level Evidence.” The Review of Economics and Statistics. 85(4):793-808.
Brynjolfsson, E., A.McAfee., and M.Spence, 2014. “Labor, Capital, and Ideas in the Power Law Economy.” Foreign Affairs. 93(4):44-53.
Brynjolfsson, E., and K.McElheran, 2016. “The Rapid Adoption of Data-Driven Decision-Making.” American Economic Review. 106(5):133-139.
Caselli, F., and A.Manning, 2018. “Robot Arithmetic: New Technology Harm and Wages.” American Economic Review: Insights. (In Press)
Cortes, G.M., 2016. “Where Have the Middle-Wage Workers Gone? A Study of Polarization Using Panel Data.” Journal of Labor Economics. 34(1): 63-105.
David, B., 2017. “Computer Technology and Probable Job Destructions in Japan: An Evaluation.” Journal of the Japanese and International Economies. 43 (1) : 77-87.
DeCanio, S.J., 2016. “Robots and Humans-Complements or Substitutes?” Journal of Macroeconomics. 49(1):280-291.
Dauth, W., S.Findeisen, J.Südekum., and N.Woessner, 2017. “German Robots-the Impact of Industrial Robots on Workers.” CEPR Discussion Paper.
Ford, M., 2016. Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless. Basic Books, Inc. New York.
Frey, C.B., and M.A.Osborne, 2017. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerization?” Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 114:254-280.
Graetz, G., and C.Michaels, 2018. “Robots at Work.” The Review of Economics and Statistics. 100(5):753-768.
Gregory, T., A.Salomons., and U.Zierahn, 2016. “Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe.” ZEW-Centre for European Economic Research Discussion Paper.
Kromann, L., J.R.Skaksen., and A. Sorensen, 2011. “Automation, Labor Productivity and Employment-A Cross Country Comparison.” Centre for Economic and Business Research Working Paper.
Lordan, G., and D.Neumark, 2018. “People versus Machines: the Impact of Minimum Wages on Automatable Jobs.” Labour Economics. 52:40-53.
Machin, S., and J.Van Reenen, 1998. “Technology and Changes in Skill Structure: Evidence from Seven OECD Countries.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 113(4):1215-1244.
Michaels, G., A.Natraj, and J.Van Reenen, 2014. “Has ICT Polarized Skill Demand? Evidence from Eleven Countries over Twenty-five Years.” Review of Economics and Statistics. 96:60-77.
Mokyr, J., C.Vickers, and N.L.Ziebarth, 2015. “The History of Technological Anxiety and the Future of Economic Growth: Is This Time Different?” Journal of Economic Perspectives. 29 (3):31-50.
Nilsson, N. J., 1998. Artificial Intelligence A New Synthesis. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers.
Pajarinen, M., and P. Rouvinen, 2015. “Computerization Threatens one Third of Finnish Employment.” ETLA Brief. 34 (22) : 1-7.
Pissarides, C.A., 1990. Equilibrium Unemployment Theory. MIT Press.
Postel-Vinay, F., 2002. “The Dynamics of Technological Unemployment.” International Economic Review. 43:737-760.
Schlogl, L., and A.Sumner, 2018. “The Rise of the Robot Reserve Army: Automation and the Future of Economic Development, Work, and Wages in Developing Countries.” Center for Global Development Working Paper.
Schwab, K., 2017. The Fourth Industrial Revolution. Crown Publishing Group New York.
Susskind, D., 2017. “A Model of Technological Unemployment.” Oxford University Working Paper.
Winston, P.H., 1984. Artificial Intelligence. Addison-Wesley Longman Publishing Co.Inc.
杜鹃,2017:“论智能机器对就业的影响”,《开放导报》,2017,2:68—72。
方建国、尹丽波,2012:“技术创新对就业的影响:创造还是毁灭工作岗位——以福建省为例”,《中国人口科学》,2012,6:34—43。
李丫丫、潘安,2017:“工业机器人进口对中国制造业生产率提升的机理及实证研究”,《世界经济研究》,2017,3:87—96。
刘书祥、曾国彪,2010:“技术进步对中国就业影响的实证分析:1978～2006”,《经济学家》,2010,4:93—100。
马岚,2015:“中国会出现机器人对人工的规模替代吗?”,《世界经济研究》,2015,10:71—79。
盛垒、洪娜,2014:“美国‘再工业化’进展及对中国的影响”,《世界经济研究》,2014,7:80—86。
王高望、史博文、叶海云,2018:“中国产业结构转型特征事实的一个理论解释”,《经济学报》,2018,2:43—62。
王君、张于喆、张义博、洪群联,2017:“人工智能等新技术进步影响就业的机理与对策”,《宏观经济研究》,2017,10:169—181。
周文斌,2017:“机器人应用对人力资源管理的影响研究”,《南京大学学报(哲学·人文科学·社会科学)》,2017,6:23—34。
朱巧玲、李敏,2018:“人工智能、技术进步与劳动力结构优化对策研究”,《科技进步与对策》,2018,35(6):36—41。
大卫·李嘉图,2013:《政治经济学及赋税原理》,郭大力、王亚南译,北京:商务印书馆。
马克思,2004:《资本论(第一卷)》,中共中央编译局译,北京:人民出版社。
熊彼特,1990:《经济发展理论》,何畏、易家译,北京:商务印书馆。
Acemoglu, D., and P.Restrepo, 2017. “Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets.” MIT Boston University Working Paper.
——2018a. “Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work.” NBER Working Paper.
——2018b. “The Race between Machine: Implication of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment.” American Economic Review. 108(6):1488-1542.
——2018c. “Low-Skill and High-Skill Automation.” Journal of Human Capital. 12(2):204-232.
——2018d. “Demographics and Automation.” NBER Working Paper.
Aghion, P., and P.Howitt, 1994. “Growth and Unemployment.” Review of Economic Studies. 61(3):477-497.
Alexopoulos, M., and J.Cohen, 2016. “The Medium is the Measure: Technical Change and Employment, 1909-1949.” Review of Economics and Statistics. 98(4): 792-810.
Arntz, M., T.Gregory., and U.Zierahn, 2016. “The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis.” OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers.
Autor, D.H., 2015. “Why are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation.” Journal of Economic Perspectives. 29(3):3-30.
Autor, D.H., F.Levy., and R.J.Murnane, 2003. “The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 118(4):1279–1333.
Autor, D.H., and A.Salomons, 2017. “Does Productivity Growth Threaten Employment?” NBER Working Paper.
——2018. “Is Automation Labor-displacing?: Productivity Growth, Employment, and the Labor Share.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.
Benzell, S.G., L.J.Kotlikoff, G.LaGarda., and J.D.Sachs, 2015. “Robots are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacemen.” NBER Working Paper.
Berg, A., E.F.Buffie, and L.F.Zanna, 2016. “Robots, Growth, and Inequality.” Finance & Development. 53(3):10-13.
Bessen, J., 2016. “How Computer Automation Affects Occupations: Technology, Jobs, and Skills.” Boston University School of Law, Law and Economics Research Paper.
Bresnahan, T.F., E.Brynjolfsson., and L.M.Hitt, 2002. “Information Technology, Workplace Organization, and the Demand for Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 117 (1):339-376.
Brynjolfsson, E., and L.M.Hitt, 2003. “Computing Productivity Firm-Level Evidence.” The Review of Economics and Statistics. 85(4):793-808.
Brynjolfsson, E., A.McAfee., and M.Spence, 2014. “Labor, Capital, and Ideas in the Power Law Economy.” Foreign Affairs. 93(4):44-53.
Brynjolfsson, E., and K.McElheran, 2016. “The Rapid Adoption of Data-Driven Decision-Making.” American Economic Review. 106(5):133-139.
Caselli, F., and A.Manning, 2018. “Robot Arithmetic: New Technology Harm and Wages.” American Economic Review: Insights. (In Press)
Cortes, G.M., 2016. “Where Have the Middle-Wage Workers Gone? A Study of Polarization Using Panel Data.” Journal of Labor Economics. 34(1): 63-105.
David, B., 2017. “Computer Technology and Probable Job Destructions in Japan: An Evaluation.” Journal of the Japanese and International Economies. 43 (1) : 77-87.
DeCanio, S.J., 2016. “Robots and Humans-Complements or Substitutes?” Journal of Macroeconomics. 49(1):280-291.
Dauth, W., S.Findeisen, J.Südekum., and N.Woessner, 2017. “German Robots-the Impact of Industrial Robots on Workers.” CEPR Discussion Paper.
Ford, M., 2016. Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless. Basic Books, Inc. New York.
Frey, C.B., and M.A.Osborne, 2017. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerization?” Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 114:254-280.
Graetz, G., and C.Michaels, 2018. “Robots at Work.” The Review of Economics and Statistics. 100(5):753-768.
Gregory, T., A.Salomons., and U.Zierahn, 2016. “Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe.” ZEW-Centre for European Economic Research Discussion Paper.
Kromann, L., J.R.Skaksen., and A. Sorensen, 2011. “Automation, Labor Productivity and Employment-A Cross Country Comparison.” Centre for Economic and Business Research Working Paper.
Lordan, G., and D.Neumark, 2018. “People versus Machines: the Impact of Minimum Wages on Automatable Jobs.” Labour Economics. 52:40-53.
Machin, S., and J.Van Reenen, 1998. “Technology and Changes in Skill Structure: Evidence from Seven OECD Countries.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 113(4):1215-1244.
Michaels, G., A.Natraj, and J.Van Reenen, 2014. “Has ICT Polarized Skill Demand? Evidence from Eleven Countries over Twenty-five Years.” Review of Economics and Statistics. 96:60-77.
Mokyr, J., C.Vickers, and N.L.Ziebarth, 2015. “The History of Technological Anxiety and the Future of Economic Growth: Is This Time Different?” Journal of Economic Perspectives. 29 (3):31-50.
Nilsson, N. J., 1998. Artificial Intelligence A New Synthesis. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers.
Pajarinen, M., and P. Rouvinen, 2015. “Computerization Threatens one Third of Finnish Employment.” ETLA Brief. 34 (22) : 1-7.
Pissarides, C.A., 1990. Equilibrium Unemployment Theory. MIT Press.
Postel-Vinay, F., 2002. “The Dynamics of Technological Unemployment.” International Economic Review. 43:737-760.
Schlogl, L., and A.Sumner, 2018. “The Rise of the Robot Reserve Army: Automation and the Future of Economic Development, Work, and Wages in Developing Countries.” Center for Global Development Working Paper.
Schwab, K., 2017. The Fourth Industrial Revolution. Crown Publishing Group New York.
Susskind, D., 2017. “A Model of Technological Unemployment.” Oxford University Working Paper.
Winston, P.H., 1984. Artificial Intelligence. Addison-Wesley Longman Publishing Co.Inc.