人口集聚、经济集聚与环境污染交互影响关系——基于面板协整和PECM模型的分析
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摘要
协调好人口、经济与环境的发展关系,必须厘清人口集聚、经济集聚与环境污染的因果关系。文章基于我国2007～2016年省级数据,运用面板数据单位根检验、面板协整检验以及面板误差修正模型(PECM)采用动态广义最小二乘法(DGLS)估计,对三者之间的长期因果关系和短期因果关系进行了研究。结果表明,在短期关系中,人口集聚、经济集聚与环境污染三者之间呈现单向环形因果关系;在长期关系中,人口集聚、经济集聚与环境污染呈现双向环形因果关系。基于长期和短期因果关系的不同,我国在制定长期规划和短期规划时应抓住侧重点,以期实现区域经济、人口城镇化、环境保护之间的协调发展。
In order to coordinate development of population, economy, and environment, it is necessary to clarify the causal relationships among population agglomeration, economic agglomeration and environmental pollution. Based on the provincial data from 2007 to 2016, this paper uses the panel data unit root test, the panel cointegration test, and the panel error correction model(PECM) to generate the dynamic generalized least square(DGLS) estimation in order to explore the long-term and short-term causality among the three variables. The results show that for the short-term relationship, there is a one-way circular causal relationship among population agglomeration, economic agglomeration, and environmental pollution, while for the long-term relationship, these three variables demonstrate a double-circular causality. Based on the difference between the long-term and short-term causality, China should pay more attention to the development of regional economy, population urbanization, and environmental protection in order to realize the coordinated development of these three elements.
In order to coordinate development of population, economy, and environment, it is necessary to clarify the causal relationships among population agglomeration, economic agglomeration and environmental pollution. Based on the provincial data from 2007 to 2016, this paper uses the panel data unit root test, the panel cointegration test, and the panel error correction model(PECM) to generate the dynamic generalized least square(DGLS) estimation in order to explore the long-term and short-term causality among the three variables. The results show that for the short-term relationship, there is a one-way circular causal relationship among population agglomeration, economic agglomeration, and environmental pollution, while for the long-term relationship, these three variables demonstrate a double-circular causality. Based on the difference between the long-term and short-term causality, China should pay more attention to the development of regional economy, population urbanization, and environmental protection in order to realize the coordinated development of these three elements.
引文
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2 Kau J B and Sirmans C F.1979.A Recursive Model of the Spatial Allocation of Migrants.Journal of Regional Science 19:47-56.
3 王桂新,潘泽瀚,陆燕秋.中国省际人口迁移区域模式变化及其影响因素——基于2000和2010年人口普查资料的分析.中国人口科学,2012;5:2-13 Wang Guixin,Pan Zehan and Lu Yanqiu.2012.Regional Patterns of Interprovincial Population Migration in China and Its Influencing Factors:An Analysis Based on Census Data in 2000 and 2010.Chinese Journal of Population Science 5:2-13.
4 陈乐,李郇,姚尧,陈栋胜.人口集聚对中国城市经济增长的影响分析.地理学报,2018;6:1107-1120Chen Le,Li Xun,Yao Yao and Chen Dongsheng.2018.Analysis of the Impact of Population Agglomeration on Urban Economic Growth in China.Acta Geographica Sinica 6:1107-1120.
5 杨东亮,任浩峰.中国人口集聚对区域经济发展的影响研究.人口学刊,2018;3:30-41 Yang Dongliang and Ren Haofeng.2018.A Study on the Impact of Population Agglomeration on Regional Economic Development in China.Population Journal 3:30-41.
6 王胜今,衣尚锦.基于人口集聚的东北地区城市竞争力的实证研究.人口学刊,2018;3:18-29 Wang Shengjin and Yi Shangjin.2018.Empirical Research on Urban Competitiveness in Northeast China Based on Population Agglomeration.Population Journal 3:18-29.
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9 王兴杰,谢高地,岳书平.经济增长和人口集聚对城市环境空气质量的影响及区域分异——以第一阶段实施新空气质量标准的74个城市为例.经济地理,2015;2:71-76 Wang Xingjie,Xie Gaodi and Yue Shuping.2015.Effects of Economic Growth and Population Concentration on Urban Air Quality and Regional Differentiation:A Case Study of 74 Cities in the First Stage of Implementing New Air Quality Standards.Economic Geography 2:71-76.
10 张可,汪东芳.经济集聚与环境污染的交互影响及空间溢出.中国工业经济,2014;6:70-81 Zhang Ke and Wang Dongfang.2014.Interaction between Economic Agglomeration and Environmental Pollution,and Spatial Spillover.Chinese Industrial Economy 6:70-81.
11 马素琳,韩君,杨素昌.城市规模、集聚与空气质量.中国人口·资源与环境,2016;5:12-21 Ma Sulin,Han Jun and Yang Suchang.2016.City Size,Agglomeration,and Air Quality.Population Resources and Environment in China 5:12-21.
12 肖周燕,沈左次.人口集聚、产业集聚与环境污染的时空演化及关联性分析.干旱区资源与环境,2019;2:1-8 Xiao Zhouyan and Shen Zuoci.2019.Spatio-temporal Evolution and Correlation Analysis of Population Agglomeration,Industrial Agglomeration,and Environmental Pollution.Resources and Environment in Arid Area 2:1-8.
13 张红凤,周峰,杨慧,郭庆.环境保护与经济发展双赢的规制绩效实证分析.经济研究,2009;3:14-26 Zhang Hongfeng,Zhou Feng,Yang Hui and Guo Qing.2009.Regulation Performance of the Win-win of Environmental Protection and Economic Development.Economic Research 3:14-26.
14 Ciccone A and Hall R E.1996.Productivity and the Density of Economics Activity.Americans Economics Review 1:54-70.
15 刘睿文,封志明,游珍.中国人口集疏格局与形成机制研究.中国人口·资源与环境,2010;3:89-94 Liu Ruiwen,Feng Zhiming and You Zhen.2010.A Study on the Pattern and Formation Mechanism of Population Concentration in China.Population Resources and Environment in China 1:54-70.
16 Ahlfeldt G M,Redding S J,Sturn D M and Wolf N.2015.The Economics of Density:Evidence from the Berlin Wall.NBER Working Paper:20354.
17 Crado C and Valente S.2011.Growth Pollution Convergence:Theory and Evidence.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management:62.
18 Valeria Costantini and Chiara Martini.2010.The Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth:A Multi-Sectoral Analysis Using Non-Stationary Cointegrated Panel Data.Energy Economics 32:3.
19 Pedroni P.1999.Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointeg Rated Panels.Working Paper,Indiana University.
20 Kao C.1999.Spurious Regression and Resid Ual-based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data.Journal of Economics 105:1-44.
21 杨礼琼,李伟娜.集聚外部性、环境技术效率与节能减排.软科学,2011;9:14-19 Yang Liqiong and Li Weina.2011.Agglomeration Externality,Environmental Technology Efficiency and Energy Saving and Emission Reduction.Soft Science 9:14-19.
2 Kau J B and Sirmans C F.1979.A Recursive Model of the Spatial Allocation of Migrants.Journal of Regional Science 19:47-56.
3 王桂新,潘泽瀚,陆燕秋.中国省际人口迁移区域模式变化及其影响因素——基于2000和2010年人口普查资料的分析.中国人口科学,2012;5:2-13 Wang Guixin,Pan Zehan and Lu Yanqiu.2012.Regional Patterns of Interprovincial Population Migration in China and Its Influencing Factors:An Analysis Based on Census Data in 2000 and 2010.Chinese Journal of Population Science 5:2-13.
4 陈乐,李郇,姚尧,陈栋胜.人口集聚对中国城市经济增长的影响分析.地理学报,2018;6:1107-1120Chen Le,Li Xun,Yao Yao and Chen Dongsheng.2018.Analysis of the Impact of Population Agglomeration on Urban Economic Growth in China.Acta Geographica Sinica 6:1107-1120.
5 杨东亮,任浩峰.中国人口集聚对区域经济发展的影响研究.人口学刊,2018;3:30-41 Yang Dongliang and Ren Haofeng.2018.A Study on the Impact of Population Agglomeration on Regional Economic Development in China.Population Journal 3:30-41.
6 王胜今,衣尚锦.基于人口集聚的东北地区城市竞争力的实证研究.人口学刊,2018;3:18-29 Wang Shengjin and Yi Shangjin.2018.Empirical Research on Urban Competitiveness in Northeast China Based on Population Agglomeration.Population Journal 3:18-29.
7 Ehrlich P and Holdren J.1972.Impact of Population Growth.Population,Resources,and the Environment,Riker RG,Washington D.C:US Government Printing Office:365-377.
8 Schulze P C.2002.I=PBAT.Ecological Economics 40:149-150.
9 王兴杰,谢高地,岳书平.经济增长和人口集聚对城市环境空气质量的影响及区域分异——以第一阶段实施新空气质量标准的74个城市为例.经济地理,2015;2:71-76 Wang Xingjie,Xie Gaodi and Yue Shuping.2015.Effects of Economic Growth and Population Concentration on Urban Air Quality and Regional Differentiation:A Case Study of 74 Cities in the First Stage of Implementing New Air Quality Standards.Economic Geography 2:71-76.
10 张可,汪东芳.经济集聚与环境污染的交互影响及空间溢出.中国工业经济,2014;6:70-81 Zhang Ke and Wang Dongfang.2014.Interaction between Economic Agglomeration and Environmental Pollution,and Spatial Spillover.Chinese Industrial Economy 6:70-81.
11 马素琳,韩君,杨素昌.城市规模、集聚与空气质量.中国人口·资源与环境,2016;5:12-21 Ma Sulin,Han Jun and Yang Suchang.2016.City Size,Agglomeration,and Air Quality.Population Resources and Environment in China 5:12-21.
12 肖周燕,沈左次.人口集聚、产业集聚与环境污染的时空演化及关联性分析.干旱区资源与环境,2019;2:1-8 Xiao Zhouyan and Shen Zuoci.2019.Spatio-temporal Evolution and Correlation Analysis of Population Agglomeration,Industrial Agglomeration,and Environmental Pollution.Resources and Environment in Arid Area 2:1-8.
13 张红凤,周峰,杨慧,郭庆.环境保护与经济发展双赢的规制绩效实证分析.经济研究,2009;3:14-26 Zhang Hongfeng,Zhou Feng,Yang Hui and Guo Qing.2009.Regulation Performance of the Win-win of Environmental Protection and Economic Development.Economic Research 3:14-26.
14 Ciccone A and Hall R E.1996.Productivity and the Density of Economics Activity.Americans Economics Review 1:54-70.
15 刘睿文,封志明,游珍.中国人口集疏格局与形成机制研究.中国人口·资源与环境,2010;3:89-94 Liu Ruiwen,Feng Zhiming and You Zhen.2010.A Study on the Pattern and Formation Mechanism of Population Concentration in China.Population Resources and Environment in China 1:54-70.
16 Ahlfeldt G M,Redding S J,Sturn D M and Wolf N.2015.The Economics of Density:Evidence from the Berlin Wall.NBER Working Paper:20354.
17 Crado C and Valente S.2011.Growth Pollution Convergence:Theory and Evidence.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management:62.
18 Valeria Costantini and Chiara Martini.2010.The Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth:A Multi-Sectoral Analysis Using Non-Stationary Cointegrated Panel Data.Energy Economics 32:3.
19 Pedroni P.1999.Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointeg Rated Panels.Working Paper,Indiana University.
20 Kao C.1999.Spurious Regression and Resid Ual-based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data.Journal of Economics 105:1-44.
21 杨礼琼,李伟娜.集聚外部性、环境技术效率与节能减排.软科学,2011;9:14-19 Yang Liqiong and Li Weina.2011.Agglomeration Externality,Environmental Technology Efficiency and Energy Saving and Emission Reduction.Soft Science 9:14-19.