疟疾时空分布模型研究概述
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摘要
疟疾是一种寄生虫病,严重危害人类健康。理解疟疾的时空分布特征对于预防控制疟疾传播具有非常重要的意义。随着我国传染病疫情监测系统的不断完善,大量的传染病时空分布数据得以获取,关于传染病时空特征分析的方法不断发展。本文对主要的疟疾时空分析方法进行归纳总结,主要包括空间自相关分析、集聚性分析、疟疾的动态传播模型、未来预估模型以及影响疟疾时空传播与分布的环境要素分析。利用疟疾发病监测数据构建数学模型,采用数学表达式定量表达疟疾传播的动态变化过程,通过动态变化过程探索疟疾时空分布规律及其与环境因素之间的关系,为疟疾防控工作提供参考依据,并为更好地控制疟疾疫情提供理论支撑。
Malaria is a parasitic infectious disease which seriously endange the people’s health.Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of malaria is of great significance for prevention and control of malaria transmission.With the improvement of the epidemic surveillance system for infectious disease in China,a large number of spatiotemporal distribution data of infectious disease have been obtained,and relevant methods for spatio-temporal analysis of infectious disease have been continuously developed.This paper summarized the main methods of spatio-temporal analysis of malaria,including spatial autocorrelation analysis,agglomeration analysis,malaria dynamic propagation model,future prediction model and analysis of environmental factors affecting the spatial and temporal spread and distribution of malaria.Using malaria surveillance data to construct a mathematical model,using mathematical expression to quantitatively express the dynamic process of malaria transmission,explore the spatial and temporal distribution of malaria and its relationship with environmental factors through dynamic change process,and provide scientific reference for malaria prevention and control work.And provide theoretical support for better control of the epidemic.
Malaria is a parasitic infectious disease which seriously endange the people’s health.Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of malaria is of great significance for prevention and control of malaria transmission.With the improvement of the epidemic surveillance system for infectious disease in China,a large number of spatiotemporal distribution data of infectious disease have been obtained,and relevant methods for spatio-temporal analysis of infectious disease have been continuously developed.This paper summarized the main methods of spatio-temporal analysis of malaria,including spatial autocorrelation analysis,agglomeration analysis,malaria dynamic propagation model,future prediction model and analysis of environmental factors affecting the spatial and temporal spread and distribution of malaria.Using malaria surveillance data to construct a mathematical model,using mathematical expression to quantitatively express the dynamic process of malaria transmission,explore the spatial and temporal distribution of malaria and its relationship with environmental factors through dynamic change process,and provide scientific reference for malaria prevention and control work.And provide theoretical support for better control of the epidemic.
引文
[1] Vitoria M,Granich R,Gilks CF,et al. The global fight against HIV/AIDS,tuberculosis,and malaria:current status and future perspectives[J]. Am J Clin Pathol,2009,131(6):844-848.
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[4] Hay SI,Guerra CA,Tatem AJ,et al. The global distribution and population at risk of malaria:past,present,and future[J]. Lancet Infect Dis,2004,4(6):327-336.
[5] Arnott A,Barry AE,Reeder JC. Understanding the population genetics of Plasmodium vivax is essential for malaria control and elimination[J]. Malar J,2012,11(1):14.
[6] Baird JK. Evidence and implications of mortality associated with acute Plasmodium vivax malaria[J]. Clin Microbiol Rev,2013,26(1):36-57.
[7] Khasnis AA,Nettleman MD. Global warming and infectious disease[J]. Arch Med Res,2005,36(6):689-696.
[8] Munga S,Yakob L,Mushinzimana E,et al. Land use and land cover changes and spatiotemporal dynamics of anopheline larval habitats during a four-year period in a highland community of Africa[J]. Am J Trop Med Hyg,2009,81(6):1079-1084.
[9] Lautze J,McCartney M,Kirshen P,et al. Effect of a large dam on malaria risk:the Koka reservoir in Ethiopia[J]. Trop Med Int Health,2007,12(8):982-989.
[10] Cohen JM,Ernst KC,Lindblade KA,et al. Topography-derived wetness indices are associated with household-level malaria risk in two communities in the western Kenyan highlands[J].Malar J,2008,7(1):40.
[11] World Health Organization. The world health report:changing history(2017)[R]. Geneva:World Health Organization.
[12]高琪.我国消除疟疾面临的机遇与挑战[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2011,23(4):347-349.
[13]汤林华.我国疟疾防治研究成就[J].中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志,1999,17(5):257-259.
[14]张丽,丰俊,张少森,等. 2016年全国疟疾疫情分析[J].中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志,2017,35(6):515-519.
[15]李亚楠,温亮,李承毅,等.中国2006-2010年疟疾流行趋势分析[J].中国公共卫生,2013,29(2):263-265.
[16] Elliot P,Wakefield JC,Best NG,et al. Spatial epidemiology:methods and applications[M]. Oxford:Oxford University Press,2000,223-239.
[17] Elliott P,Wartenberg D. Spatial epidemiology:current approaches and future challenges[J]. Environ Health Perspect,2004,112(9):998.
[18] Dogan HM,Cetin I,Egri M. Spatiotemporal change and ecological modelling of malaria in Turkey by means of geographic information systems[J]. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg,2010,104(11):726-732.
[19] Yeshiwondim AK,Gopal S,Hailemariam AT,et al. Spatial analysis of malaria incidence at the village level in areas with unstable transmission in Ethiopia[J]. Int J Health Geogr,2009,8(1):5.
[20] Tobler WR. A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region[J]. Economic geography,1970,46(sup1):234-240.
[21] Baltagi BH. A companion to theoretical econometrics[M]. Oxford:Blackwell,2001.
[22] Goodchild MF. Spatial autocorrelation,oncept and techniques in Modern Geography[M].Norwich:Geo Books,1986.
[23] Cliff AD,Ord JK. Spatial processes:models&applications[M]:London:Taylor&Francis,1981.
[24]孟斌,王劲峰,张文忠,等.基于空间分析方法的中国区域差异研究[J].地理科学,2005,25(4):393-400.
[25] Moran PA. Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena[J].Biometrika,1950,37(1/2):17-23.
[26] Sawada M. Global spatial autocorrelation indices-Moran's I,Geary's C and the general cross-product statistic.Department of Geography,University of Ottawa.2001.http://www.lpc.uottawa.ca/publications/moransi/moran.htm.
[27]张松林,张昆.全局空间自相关Moran指数和G系数对比研究[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2007,46(4):93-97.
[28] Anselin L,Fischer M,Scholten HJ,et al. The Moran Scatterplot as an ESDA tool to assess local instability in spatial association[C]//GISDATA.Speciallist Meeting on GIS and Spatial Analysis,the Netherlands,1993.
[29] Zhou G,Munga S,Minakawa N,et al. Spatial relationship between adult malaria vector abundance and environmental factors in western Kenya highlands[J]. Am J Trop Med Hyg,2007,77(1):29-35.
[30] Hui FM,Xu B,Chen ZW,et al. Spatio-temporal distribution of malaria in Yunnan Province,China[J]. Am J Trop Med Hyg,2009,81(3):503-509.
[31] Balls M,B覬dker R,Thomas CJ,et al. Effect of topography on the risk of malaria infection in the Usambara Mountains,Tanzania[J]. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg,2004,98(7):400-408.
[32] Gething PW,Atkinson PM,Noor AM,et al. A local space–time kriging approach applied to a national outpatient malaria data set[J]. Computers&geosciences,2007,33(10):1337-1350.
[33] Wimberly MC,Midekisa A,Semuniguse P,et al. Spatial synchrony of malaria outbreaks in a highland region of Ethiopia[J].Trop Med Int Health,2012,17(10):1192-1201.
[34] Laneri K,Bhadra A,Ionides EL,et al. Forcing versus feedback:epidemic malaria and monsoo n rains in northwest India[J].PLoS Comput Biol,2010,6(9):e1000898.
[35] Mirghani SE,Nour BY,Bushra SM,et al. The spatial-temporal clustering of Plasmodium falciparum infection over eleven years in Gezira State,The Sudan[J]. Malar J,2010,9(1):172.
[36] Abeku TA,Van Oortmarssen GJ,Borsboom G,et al. Spatial and temporal variations of malaria epidemic risk in Ethiopia:factors involved and implications[J]. Acta tropica,2003,87(3):331-340.
[37]毛祥华,魏春,唐烨榕,等.云南省疟疾病例地理聚集特征分析[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2017,29(1):24-27.
[38] Ross R. Report on the prevention of malaria in mauritius[M].New York:Waterlow,1908.
[39] Macdonald G. The analysis of infection rates in diseases in which super infection occurs[J]. Trop Dis Bull,1950(47):907-915.
[40] Dye C,Hasibeder G. Population dynamics of mosquito-borne disease:effects of flies which bite some people more frequently than others[J]. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg,1986,80(1):69-77.
[41] Hasibeder G,Dye C. Population dynamics of mosquito-borne disease:persistence in a completely heterogeneous environment[J]. Theor popul Biol,1988,33(1):31-53.
[42] Lloyd AL,Zhang J,Root AM. Stochasticity and heterogeneity in host–vector models[J]. J R Soc Interface,2007,4(16):851-863.
[43] Smith DL,McKenzie FE,Snow RW,et al. Revisiting the basic reproductive number for malaria and its implications for malaria control[J]. PLoS Biol,2007,5(3):e42.
[44] Salje H,Lessler J,Endy TP,et al. Revealing the microscale spatial signature of dengue transmission and immunity in an urban population[J]. Proc Nati Acad Sci USA,2012,109(24):9535-9538.
[45]温亮,施润和,徐德忠,等.地表温度和土地利用类型与海南省疟疾流行的相关性[J].第四军医大学学报,2008,29(15):1391-1394.
[46]王丽萍,徐友富,王建军,等1990~2006年安徽疟疾疫情时空分布特点研究[J].疾病控制杂志, 2008(2):156-159.
[47] Wang SQ,Li YC,Zhang ZM,et al. Prevention measures and socio-economic development result in a decrease in malaria in Hainan,China[J]. Malar J,2014,13(1):362.
[48] Xiao D,Long Y,Wang S,et al. Spatiotemporal distribution of malaria and the association between its epidemic and climate factors in Hainan,China[J]. Malar J,2010,9(1):185.
[49] Siraj A,Santos VM,Bouma M,et al. Altitudinal changes in malaria incidence in highlands of Ethiopia and Colombia[J].Science,2014,343(6175):1154-1158.
[50] Olson SH,Gangnon R,Elguero E,et al. Links between climate,malaria,and wetlands in the Amazon Basin[J]. Emerg Infect Dis,2009,15(4):659.
[51] Abeku TA. Response to malaria epidemics in Africa[J]. Emerg Infect Dis,2007,13(5):681.
[52] Paaijmans KP,Blanford S,Bell AS,et al. Influence of climate on malaria transmission depends on daily temperature variation[J]. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,2010,107(34):15135-15139.
[53] Baeza A,SantosVM,Dobson AP,et al. The rise and fall of malaria under land-use change in frontier regions[J]. Nat Eco Evol,2017,1(5):1-8.
[54] Lindblade KA,Walker ED,Onapa AW,et al. Land use change alters malaria transmission parameters by modifying temperature in a highland area of Uganda[J]. Trop Med Int Health,2000,5(4):263-274.
[55] Bhatt S,Weiss D,Cameron E,et al. The effect of malaria control on Plasmodium falciparum in Africa between 2000 and2015[J]. Nature,2015,526(7572):207.
[56] Martin P. Malaria and climate:sensitivity of malaria potential transmission to climate[J]. Ambio,1995,24(4):200-207.
[57] Martens P. Health and climate change:modelling the impacts of global warming and ozone depletion[M].London:Routledge,2013.
[58] Song Y,Ge Y,Wang J,et al. Spatial distribution estimation of malaria in northern China and its scenarios in 2020,2030,2040and 2050[J]. Malar J,2016,15(1):345.
[59] Caminade C,Kovats S,Rocklov J,et al. Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution[J]. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,2014,111(9):3286-3291.
[60] Tanser FC,Sharp B,Le Sueur D. Potential effect of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa[J]. Lancet,2003,362(9398):1792-1798.
[2]联合国.联合国千年发展目标[EB/OL].http://www.un.org/zh/millenniumgoals.
[3] Nadjm B,Behrens RH. Malaria:an update for physicians[J]. Infect Dis Clin North Am,2012,26(2):243-259.
[4] Hay SI,Guerra CA,Tatem AJ,et al. The global distribution and population at risk of malaria:past,present,and future[J]. Lancet Infect Dis,2004,4(6):327-336.
[5] Arnott A,Barry AE,Reeder JC. Understanding the population genetics of Plasmodium vivax is essential for malaria control and elimination[J]. Malar J,2012,11(1):14.
[6] Baird JK. Evidence and implications of mortality associated with acute Plasmodium vivax malaria[J]. Clin Microbiol Rev,2013,26(1):36-57.
[7] Khasnis AA,Nettleman MD. Global warming and infectious disease[J]. Arch Med Res,2005,36(6):689-696.
[8] Munga S,Yakob L,Mushinzimana E,et al. Land use and land cover changes and spatiotemporal dynamics of anopheline larval habitats during a four-year period in a highland community of Africa[J]. Am J Trop Med Hyg,2009,81(6):1079-1084.
[9] Lautze J,McCartney M,Kirshen P,et al. Effect of a large dam on malaria risk:the Koka reservoir in Ethiopia[J]. Trop Med Int Health,2007,12(8):982-989.
[10] Cohen JM,Ernst KC,Lindblade KA,et al. Topography-derived wetness indices are associated with household-level malaria risk in two communities in the western Kenyan highlands[J].Malar J,2008,7(1):40.
[11] World Health Organization. The world health report:changing history(2017)[R]. Geneva:World Health Organization.
[12]高琪.我国消除疟疾面临的机遇与挑战[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2011,23(4):347-349.
[13]汤林华.我国疟疾防治研究成就[J].中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志,1999,17(5):257-259.
[14]张丽,丰俊,张少森,等. 2016年全国疟疾疫情分析[J].中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志,2017,35(6):515-519.
[15]李亚楠,温亮,李承毅,等.中国2006-2010年疟疾流行趋势分析[J].中国公共卫生,2013,29(2):263-265.
[16] Elliot P,Wakefield JC,Best NG,et al. Spatial epidemiology:methods and applications[M]. Oxford:Oxford University Press,2000,223-239.
[17] Elliott P,Wartenberg D. Spatial epidemiology:current approaches and future challenges[J]. Environ Health Perspect,2004,112(9):998.
[18] Dogan HM,Cetin I,Egri M. Spatiotemporal change and ecological modelling of malaria in Turkey by means of geographic information systems[J]. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg,2010,104(11):726-732.
[19] Yeshiwondim AK,Gopal S,Hailemariam AT,et al. Spatial analysis of malaria incidence at the village level in areas with unstable transmission in Ethiopia[J]. Int J Health Geogr,2009,8(1):5.
[20] Tobler WR. A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region[J]. Economic geography,1970,46(sup1):234-240.
[21] Baltagi BH. A companion to theoretical econometrics[M]. Oxford:Blackwell,2001.
[22] Goodchild MF. Spatial autocorrelation,oncept and techniques in Modern Geography[M].Norwich:Geo Books,1986.
[23] Cliff AD,Ord JK. Spatial processes:models&applications[M]:London:Taylor&Francis,1981.
[24]孟斌,王劲峰,张文忠,等.基于空间分析方法的中国区域差异研究[J].地理科学,2005,25(4):393-400.
[25] Moran PA. Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena[J].Biometrika,1950,37(1/2):17-23.
[26] Sawada M. Global spatial autocorrelation indices-Moran's I,Geary's C and the general cross-product statistic.Department of Geography,University of Ottawa.2001.http://www.lpc.uottawa.ca/publications/moransi/moran.htm.
[27]张松林,张昆.全局空间自相关Moran指数和G系数对比研究[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2007,46(4):93-97.
[28] Anselin L,Fischer M,Scholten HJ,et al. The Moran Scatterplot as an ESDA tool to assess local instability in spatial association[C]//GISDATA.Speciallist Meeting on GIS and Spatial Analysis,the Netherlands,1993.
[29] Zhou G,Munga S,Minakawa N,et al. Spatial relationship between adult malaria vector abundance and environmental factors in western Kenya highlands[J]. Am J Trop Med Hyg,2007,77(1):29-35.
[30] Hui FM,Xu B,Chen ZW,et al. Spatio-temporal distribution of malaria in Yunnan Province,China[J]. Am J Trop Med Hyg,2009,81(3):503-509.
[31] Balls M,B覬dker R,Thomas CJ,et al. Effect of topography on the risk of malaria infection in the Usambara Mountains,Tanzania[J]. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg,2004,98(7):400-408.
[32] Gething PW,Atkinson PM,Noor AM,et al. A local space–time kriging approach applied to a national outpatient malaria data set[J]. Computers&geosciences,2007,33(10):1337-1350.
[33] Wimberly MC,Midekisa A,Semuniguse P,et al. Spatial synchrony of malaria outbreaks in a highland region of Ethiopia[J].Trop Med Int Health,2012,17(10):1192-1201.
[34] Laneri K,Bhadra A,Ionides EL,et al. Forcing versus feedback:epidemic malaria and monsoo n rains in northwest India[J].PLoS Comput Biol,2010,6(9):e1000898.
[35] Mirghani SE,Nour BY,Bushra SM,et al. The spatial-temporal clustering of Plasmodium falciparum infection over eleven years in Gezira State,The Sudan[J]. Malar J,2010,9(1):172.
[36] Abeku TA,Van Oortmarssen GJ,Borsboom G,et al. Spatial and temporal variations of malaria epidemic risk in Ethiopia:factors involved and implications[J]. Acta tropica,2003,87(3):331-340.
[37]毛祥华,魏春,唐烨榕,等.云南省疟疾病例地理聚集特征分析[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2017,29(1):24-27.
[38] Ross R. Report on the prevention of malaria in mauritius[M].New York:Waterlow,1908.
[39] Macdonald G. The analysis of infection rates in diseases in which super infection occurs[J]. Trop Dis Bull,1950(47):907-915.
[40] Dye C,Hasibeder G. Population dynamics of mosquito-borne disease:effects of flies which bite some people more frequently than others[J]. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg,1986,80(1):69-77.
[41] Hasibeder G,Dye C. Population dynamics of mosquito-borne disease:persistence in a completely heterogeneous environment[J]. Theor popul Biol,1988,33(1):31-53.
[42] Lloyd AL,Zhang J,Root AM. Stochasticity and heterogeneity in host–vector models[J]. J R Soc Interface,2007,4(16):851-863.
[43] Smith DL,McKenzie FE,Snow RW,et al. Revisiting the basic reproductive number for malaria and its implications for malaria control[J]. PLoS Biol,2007,5(3):e42.
[44] Salje H,Lessler J,Endy TP,et al. Revealing the microscale spatial signature of dengue transmission and immunity in an urban population[J]. Proc Nati Acad Sci USA,2012,109(24):9535-9538.
[45]温亮,施润和,徐德忠,等.地表温度和土地利用类型与海南省疟疾流行的相关性[J].第四军医大学学报,2008,29(15):1391-1394.
[46]王丽萍,徐友富,王建军,等1990~2006年安徽疟疾疫情时空分布特点研究[J].疾病控制杂志, 2008(2):156-159.
[47] Wang SQ,Li YC,Zhang ZM,et al. Prevention measures and socio-economic development result in a decrease in malaria in Hainan,China[J]. Malar J,2014,13(1):362.
[48] Xiao D,Long Y,Wang S,et al. Spatiotemporal distribution of malaria and the association between its epidemic and climate factors in Hainan,China[J]. Malar J,2010,9(1):185.
[49] Siraj A,Santos VM,Bouma M,et al. Altitudinal changes in malaria incidence in highlands of Ethiopia and Colombia[J].Science,2014,343(6175):1154-1158.
[50] Olson SH,Gangnon R,Elguero E,et al. Links between climate,malaria,and wetlands in the Amazon Basin[J]. Emerg Infect Dis,2009,15(4):659.
[51] Abeku TA. Response to malaria epidemics in Africa[J]. Emerg Infect Dis,2007,13(5):681.
[52] Paaijmans KP,Blanford S,Bell AS,et al. Influence of climate on malaria transmission depends on daily temperature variation[J]. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,2010,107(34):15135-15139.
[53] Baeza A,SantosVM,Dobson AP,et al. The rise and fall of malaria under land-use change in frontier regions[J]. Nat Eco Evol,2017,1(5):1-8.
[54] Lindblade KA,Walker ED,Onapa AW,et al. Land use change alters malaria transmission parameters by modifying temperature in a highland area of Uganda[J]. Trop Med Int Health,2000,5(4):263-274.
[55] Bhatt S,Weiss D,Cameron E,et al. The effect of malaria control on Plasmodium falciparum in Africa between 2000 and2015[J]. Nature,2015,526(7572):207.
[56] Martin P. Malaria and climate:sensitivity of malaria potential transmission to climate[J]. Ambio,1995,24(4):200-207.
[57] Martens P. Health and climate change:modelling the impacts of global warming and ozone depletion[M].London:Routledge,2013.
[58] Song Y,Ge Y,Wang J,et al. Spatial distribution estimation of malaria in northern China and its scenarios in 2020,2030,2040and 2050[J]. Malar J,2016,15(1):345.
[59] Caminade C,Kovats S,Rocklov J,et al. Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution[J]. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,2014,111(9):3286-3291.
[60] Tanser FC,Sharp B,Le Sueur D. Potential effect of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa[J]. Lancet,2003,362(9398):1792-1798.