基于夜间灯光数据的天山北坡城市群第二、三产业GDP空间化模拟
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摘要
针对城市群中小尺度资源环境研究领域对空间型社会经济数据的需求,对天山北坡城市群10个主要县市的第二、三产业国内生产总值(gross domestic product, GDP)进行空间化模拟.采用相关分析与回归分析方法,定量分析2002年和2012年DMSP/OLS(defensemeteorological satellite program/operational line scan system)夜间灯光数据与天山北坡城市群统计型数据的关系,建立天山北坡城市群1 km的GDP密度图,GDP空间分布模拟结果在分产业水平上拥有较高精度.结果表明:1)两期夜间灯光指数与第二、三产业值具有明显相关性,第二产业相关系数为0.75、0.83;第三产业相关系数为0.86、0.87;2)从GDP空间分布来看,高值区主要集中在乌鲁木齐-昌吉-石河子-奎屯-克拉玛依一线;各县市GDP密度由城市核心区向周围区域辐射递减,城郊和农村地区的GDP密度显著低于建成区的GDP密度;3)基于夜间灯光数据模拟的GDP空间分布结果十分可信,尤其是第二产业2002年和2012年的GDP模拟结果与统计值的相对误差分别为0.58%、0.01%.通过对比两期的GDP空间化模拟结果发现:该方法在一定程度上反映了天山北坡城市群经济发展的动态变化,对后期更加准确地预测此区域经济走势具有实用价值.
For the demand of small scale resources and environment of research on spatial model of social and economic data,a spatial simulation is conducted on the secondary and tertiary industry gross domestic product(GDP) of the 10 major cities and towns in the city cluster on northern slope of Tianshan Mountains. By using correlation and regression analysis methods, we quantitatively analyze the relations between DMSP/OLS(defense meteorological satellite program/operational line scan system) night light data and the urban agglomeration census data of northern slope of Tianshan Mountain in 2002 and2012. And we build a 1 km GDP density map of the urban agglomeration of northern slope of Tiashan Mountain. The simulated spatial GDP distribution consistent precisely with the distribution of industry level of the region. First, it is indicated that the night light exponent of the two periods has obvious dependency on secondary and tertiary industries.The correlation coefficients are 0.75 and 0.83 for secondary industry, and 0.86 and 0.87 for tertiary industry. Second, it is seen that high value areas mainly gather in the line of Urumqi-Changji-Shihezi-Kuytun-Karamay. The interior GDP density of each county or city radiates decreasingly from the center to surroundings. The GDP density of suburban and rural areas are significantly lower than that of established districts. Third, the GDP distribution based on DMSP/OLS night light data simulation is reliable. The relative errors between GDP spatial simulations and statistical values of secondary industry in 2002 and2012 are only 0.58% and 0.01% respectively. The comparison of GDP spatial simulations of the two periods reflects the dynamic change of the economic development of the urban agglomeration of northern slope of Tianshan Mountain, which is of practical value for more accurate prediction of the regional economic trend.
For the demand of small scale resources and environment of research on spatial model of social and economic data,a spatial simulation is conducted on the secondary and tertiary industry gross domestic product(GDP) of the 10 major cities and towns in the city cluster on northern slope of Tianshan Mountains. By using correlation and regression analysis methods, we quantitatively analyze the relations between DMSP/OLS(defense meteorological satellite program/operational line scan system) night light data and the urban agglomeration census data of northern slope of Tianshan Mountain in 2002 and2012. And we build a 1 km GDP density map of the urban agglomeration of northern slope of Tiashan Mountain. The simulated spatial GDP distribution consistent precisely with the distribution of industry level of the region. First, it is indicated that the night light exponent of the two periods has obvious dependency on secondary and tertiary industries.The correlation coefficients are 0.75 and 0.83 for secondary industry, and 0.86 and 0.87 for tertiary industry. Second, it is seen that high value areas mainly gather in the line of Urumqi-Changji-Shihezi-Kuytun-Karamay. The interior GDP density of each county or city radiates decreasingly from the center to surroundings. The GDP density of suburban and rural areas are significantly lower than that of established districts. Third, the GDP distribution based on DMSP/OLS night light data simulation is reliable. The relative errors between GDP spatial simulations and statistical values of secondary industry in 2002 and2012 are only 0.58% and 0.01% respectively. The comparison of GDP spatial simulations of the two periods reflects the dynamic change of the economic development of the urban agglomeration of northern slope of Tianshan Mountain, which is of practical value for more accurate prediction of the regional economic trend.
引文
[1]朱诚,姜逢清,吴立,曾蒙秀,贾天骄,周生路,宁越敏,于军,冯学智.对全球变化背景下长三角地区城镇化发展科学问题的思考[J].地理学报,2017, 72(4):633-645.Zhu C, Jiang F Q, Wu L, Zeng M X, Jia T J, Zhou S L, Ning Y M, Yu J, Feng X Z. On the problems of urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta under the background of global change[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(4):633-645.(in Chinese)
[2]柴子为,王帅磊,乔纪纲.基于夜间灯光数据的珠三角地区镇级GDP估算[J].热带地理,2015,35(3):379-385.Chai Z W, Wang S L, Qiao J G. Township GDP estimation of the Pearl River Delta based on the NPP-VIIRS night-time satellite data[J]. Tropical Geography, 2015, 35(3):379-385.(in Chinese)
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[4] Ebenner S, Murray C, Tendon A, Elvidge C. From wealth to health:modeling the distribution of income per capita at the sub-national level using night-time light imagery[J].International Journal of Health Geographics, 2005, 10(4/5):1-17.
[5]阿里木江·卡斯木,唐兵,古丽克孜·吐拉克.基于遥感和GIS的新疆绿洲城市扩展时空动态变化分析[J].冰川冻土,2013, 35(4):1056-1064.Alimujiang K, Tang B, Gulikezi T. Analysis of the spatial-temporal dynamic changes of urban expansion in oasis of Xinjiang based on RS and GIS[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(4):1056-1064.(in Chinese)
[6] Sutton P C. An empirical environmental sustainability index derived solely form nighttime satellite imagery and ecosystem service valuation[J]. Population and Environment, 2003, 24(4):293-311.
[7]李德仁,李熙.论夜光遥感数据挖掘[J].测绘学报,2015, 44(6):591-601.Li D R, Li X. An overview on data mining of nighttime light remote sensing[J]. Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica, 2015, 44(6):591-601.(in Chinese)
[8]王旭,吴吉东,王海,李宁.基于夜间灯光和人口密度数据的京津冀GDP空间化对比[J].地球信息科学学报,2016, 18(7):969-976.Wang X, Wu J D, Wang H, Li N. Comparison of GDP spatialization in Beijing-TianjinHebei based on night light and population density data[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science,2016, 18(7):969-976.(in Chinese)
[9]肖国峰,朱秀芳,蔡毅,孙章丽.基于多源数据的河南省GDP空间化[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2018, 54(2):232-238.Xiao G F, Zhu X F, Cai Y, Sun Z L. GDP spatialization in Henan Province based on multi—source data[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 2018, 54(2):232-238.(in Chinese)
[10]刘华军,杜广杰.中国经济发展的时空格局及分布动态演变——基于城市DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据的研究[J].中国人口科学,2017, 6(3):17-29.Liu H J, Du G J. Spatial-temporal pattern of China’s economic development and its dynamic evolution:based on city level DMSP/OLS night-time lights data[J]. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2017, 6(3):17-29.(in Chinese)
[11]马丹,程辉,毛艳玲,邢世和.基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光影像的省际经济发展水平评估模型研究[J].应用科学学报,2017, 35(5):647-657.Ma D, Cheng H, Mao Y L, Xing S H. Estimation of provincial economic development levels based on DMSP/OLS nighttime light images[J]. Journal of Applied Sciences, 2017, 35(5):647-657.(in Chinese)
[12]李林玥,孙志贤,龙翔.“一带一路”沿线国家与中国的贸易发展状况研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018, 36(3):39-58.Li L Y, Sun Z X, Long X. The study of trade development between “one road” countries along the line and China[J]. The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics, 2018, 36(3):39-58.(in Chinese)
[13] Sutton P C, Costanza R. Global estimates of market and non-market values derived from nighttime satellite imagery, land cover, and ecosystem service valuation[J]. Ecological Economics, 2002, 41(3):509-527.
[14] Doll C N H, Muller J P, Morley J G. Mapping regional economic activity form night-time light satellite imagery[J]. Ecological Economics, 2006, 57(1):75-92.
[15]徐康宁,陈丰龙,刘修岩.中国经济增长的真实性:基于全球夜间灯光数据的检验[J].经济研究,2015, 57(9):17-29.Xu K N, Chen F L, Liu X Y. The truth of China economic growth:evidence from global night-time light data[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2015, 57(9):17-29.(in Chinese)
[16]姚士谋,周春山,王德,修春亮,王成新,陈明星.中国城市群新论[M].北京:科学出版社,2016.
[17]高倩,阿里木江·卡斯木.基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据的天山北坡城市群人口分布空间模拟[J].西北人口,2017, 38(3):113-120.Gao Q, Alimujiang K. Modeling the population spatial distribution of Tianshan north-slope urban agglomeration based on DMSP/OLS night lighting data[J]. Northwest Population, 2017,38(3):113-120.(in Chinese)
[18]艳燕,张弛,匡文慧,罗格平,陈春波.天山北坡城市群非渗透面下的土壤有机碳特征[J].地理科学进展,2015, 34(6):781-789.Yan Y, Zhang C, Kuang W H, Luo G P, Chen C B. Orgnic carbon charasteristics of soils beneath urban impervious surface in northern Tianshan urban cluster[J]. Progress in Geography,2015, 34(6):781-789.(in Chinese)
[19]方创林,宋吉涛,张蔷,李铭.中国城市群结构体系的组成与空间分异格局[J].地理学报,2005,60(5):827-840.Fang C L, Song J T, Zhang Q, Li M. The formation, development and spatial heterogeneity patterns for the structures system of urban agglomerations in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2005, 60(5):827-840.(in Chinese)
[20]王爱辉.天山北坡城市群经济、社会与环境协调发展与对策[J].水土保持研究,2014, 21(2):316-322.Wang A H. Coordinated development and countermeasures of economy, society and environment of urban agglomerations on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2014, 21(2):316-322.(in Chinese)
[21]阴英超.基于DMSP/OLS灯光数据的新疆天山北坡经济带城市化研究[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆大学.
[22]高鸿业.西方经济学:宏观部分[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007.
[23]卓莉,史培军,陈晋,一之瀬俊明. 20世纪90年代中国城市时空变化特征——基于灯光指数CNLI方法的探讨[J].地理学报,2003, 58(6):93-102.Zhou L, Shi P J, Chen J, Ichinose T. Application of compound night light index derived from DMSP/OLS data to urbanization analysis in China in 1990s[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2003, 58(6):93-102.(in Chinese)
[24]陈晋,卓莉,史培军,一之瀬俊明.基于DMSP/OLS数据的中国城市化过程研究:反应区域城市化水平的灯光指数的构建[J].遥感学报,2003,7(3):168-176.Chen J, Zhou L, Shi P J, Ichinose T. The study on urbanization process in China based on DMSP/OLS data:development of a light index for urbanization level estimation[J]. Journal of Remote Sensing, 2003, 7(3):168-176.(in Chinese)
[25]韩向娣,周艺,王世新,刘瑞,姚尧.夜间灯光遥感数据的GDP空间化处理方法[J].地球信息科学学报,2012, 4(1):128-136.Han X D, Zhou Y, Wang S X, Liu R, Yao Y. GDP spatialization in China based on nighttime imagery[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2012, 4(1):128-136.(in Chinese)
[26]胡云锋,王倩倩,刘越,李军,任旺兵.国家尺度社会经济数据格网化原理和方法[J].地球信息科学学报,2011, 13(5):573-578.Hu Y F, Wang Q Q, Liu Y, Li J, Ren W B. Index system and transferring methods to build the national society and economy grid date base[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science,2011, 13(5):573-578.(in Chinese)
[27]黄莹,包安明,陈曦,刘海隆,杨光华.基于绿洲土地利用的区域GDP公里格网化研究[J].冰川冻土,2009, 31(1):158-165.Huang Y, Bao A M, Chen X, Liu H L, Yang G H. Studying the GDP in 1 km square gridcells based on oasis land use[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2009, 31(1):158-165.(in Chinese)
[2]柴子为,王帅磊,乔纪纲.基于夜间灯光数据的珠三角地区镇级GDP估算[J].热带地理,2015,35(3):379-385.Chai Z W, Wang S L, Qiao J G. Township GDP estimation of the Pearl River Delta based on the NPP-VIIRS night-time satellite data[J]. Tropical Geography, 2015, 35(3):379-385.(in Chinese)
[3]徐中民,程国栋.生态经济研究中的整体性视角[J].冰川冻土,2011, 33(3):668-675.Xu Z M, Cheng G D. Holistic viewpoint in the ecological economics[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2011, 33(3):668-675.(in Chinese)
[4] Ebenner S, Murray C, Tendon A, Elvidge C. From wealth to health:modeling the distribution of income per capita at the sub-national level using night-time light imagery[J].International Journal of Health Geographics, 2005, 10(4/5):1-17.
[5]阿里木江·卡斯木,唐兵,古丽克孜·吐拉克.基于遥感和GIS的新疆绿洲城市扩展时空动态变化分析[J].冰川冻土,2013, 35(4):1056-1064.Alimujiang K, Tang B, Gulikezi T. Analysis of the spatial-temporal dynamic changes of urban expansion in oasis of Xinjiang based on RS and GIS[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(4):1056-1064.(in Chinese)
[6] Sutton P C. An empirical environmental sustainability index derived solely form nighttime satellite imagery and ecosystem service valuation[J]. Population and Environment, 2003, 24(4):293-311.
[7]李德仁,李熙.论夜光遥感数据挖掘[J].测绘学报,2015, 44(6):591-601.Li D R, Li X. An overview on data mining of nighttime light remote sensing[J]. Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica, 2015, 44(6):591-601.(in Chinese)
[8]王旭,吴吉东,王海,李宁.基于夜间灯光和人口密度数据的京津冀GDP空间化对比[J].地球信息科学学报,2016, 18(7):969-976.Wang X, Wu J D, Wang H, Li N. Comparison of GDP spatialization in Beijing-TianjinHebei based on night light and population density data[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science,2016, 18(7):969-976.(in Chinese)
[9]肖国峰,朱秀芳,蔡毅,孙章丽.基于多源数据的河南省GDP空间化[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2018, 54(2):232-238.Xiao G F, Zhu X F, Cai Y, Sun Z L. GDP spatialization in Henan Province based on multi—source data[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 2018, 54(2):232-238.(in Chinese)
[10]刘华军,杜广杰.中国经济发展的时空格局及分布动态演变——基于城市DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据的研究[J].中国人口科学,2017, 6(3):17-29.Liu H J, Du G J. Spatial-temporal pattern of China’s economic development and its dynamic evolution:based on city level DMSP/OLS night-time lights data[J]. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2017, 6(3):17-29.(in Chinese)
[11]马丹,程辉,毛艳玲,邢世和.基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光影像的省际经济发展水平评估模型研究[J].应用科学学报,2017, 35(5):647-657.Ma D, Cheng H, Mao Y L, Xing S H. Estimation of provincial economic development levels based on DMSP/OLS nighttime light images[J]. Journal of Applied Sciences, 2017, 35(5):647-657.(in Chinese)
[12]李林玥,孙志贤,龙翔.“一带一路”沿线国家与中国的贸易发展状况研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018, 36(3):39-58.Li L Y, Sun Z X, Long X. The study of trade development between “one road” countries along the line and China[J]. The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics, 2018, 36(3):39-58.(in Chinese)
[13] Sutton P C, Costanza R. Global estimates of market and non-market values derived from nighttime satellite imagery, land cover, and ecosystem service valuation[J]. Ecological Economics, 2002, 41(3):509-527.
[14] Doll C N H, Muller J P, Morley J G. Mapping regional economic activity form night-time light satellite imagery[J]. Ecological Economics, 2006, 57(1):75-92.
[15]徐康宁,陈丰龙,刘修岩.中国经济增长的真实性:基于全球夜间灯光数据的检验[J].经济研究,2015, 57(9):17-29.Xu K N, Chen F L, Liu X Y. The truth of China economic growth:evidence from global night-time light data[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2015, 57(9):17-29.(in Chinese)
[16]姚士谋,周春山,王德,修春亮,王成新,陈明星.中国城市群新论[M].北京:科学出版社,2016.
[17]高倩,阿里木江·卡斯木.基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据的天山北坡城市群人口分布空间模拟[J].西北人口,2017, 38(3):113-120.Gao Q, Alimujiang K. Modeling the population spatial distribution of Tianshan north-slope urban agglomeration based on DMSP/OLS night lighting data[J]. Northwest Population, 2017,38(3):113-120.(in Chinese)
[18]艳燕,张弛,匡文慧,罗格平,陈春波.天山北坡城市群非渗透面下的土壤有机碳特征[J].地理科学进展,2015, 34(6):781-789.Yan Y, Zhang C, Kuang W H, Luo G P, Chen C B. Orgnic carbon charasteristics of soils beneath urban impervious surface in northern Tianshan urban cluster[J]. Progress in Geography,2015, 34(6):781-789.(in Chinese)
[19]方创林,宋吉涛,张蔷,李铭.中国城市群结构体系的组成与空间分异格局[J].地理学报,2005,60(5):827-840.Fang C L, Song J T, Zhang Q, Li M. The formation, development and spatial heterogeneity patterns for the structures system of urban agglomerations in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2005, 60(5):827-840.(in Chinese)
[20]王爱辉.天山北坡城市群经济、社会与环境协调发展与对策[J].水土保持研究,2014, 21(2):316-322.Wang A H. Coordinated development and countermeasures of economy, society and environment of urban agglomerations on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2014, 21(2):316-322.(in Chinese)
[21]阴英超.基于DMSP/OLS灯光数据的新疆天山北坡经济带城市化研究[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆大学.
[22]高鸿业.西方经济学:宏观部分[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007.
[23]卓莉,史培军,陈晋,一之瀬俊明. 20世纪90年代中国城市时空变化特征——基于灯光指数CNLI方法的探讨[J].地理学报,2003, 58(6):93-102.Zhou L, Shi P J, Chen J, Ichinose T. Application of compound night light index derived from DMSP/OLS data to urbanization analysis in China in 1990s[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2003, 58(6):93-102.(in Chinese)
[24]陈晋,卓莉,史培军,一之瀬俊明.基于DMSP/OLS数据的中国城市化过程研究:反应区域城市化水平的灯光指数的构建[J].遥感学报,2003,7(3):168-176.Chen J, Zhou L, Shi P J, Ichinose T. The study on urbanization process in China based on DMSP/OLS data:development of a light index for urbanization level estimation[J]. Journal of Remote Sensing, 2003, 7(3):168-176.(in Chinese)
[25]韩向娣,周艺,王世新,刘瑞,姚尧.夜间灯光遥感数据的GDP空间化处理方法[J].地球信息科学学报,2012, 4(1):128-136.Han X D, Zhou Y, Wang S X, Liu R, Yao Y. GDP spatialization in China based on nighttime imagery[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2012, 4(1):128-136.(in Chinese)
[26]胡云锋,王倩倩,刘越,李军,任旺兵.国家尺度社会经济数据格网化原理和方法[J].地球信息科学学报,2011, 13(5):573-578.Hu Y F, Wang Q Q, Liu Y, Li J, Ren W B. Index system and transferring methods to build the national society and economy grid date base[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science,2011, 13(5):573-578.(in Chinese)
[27]黄莹,包安明,陈曦,刘海隆,杨光华.基于绿洲土地利用的区域GDP公里格网化研究[J].冰川冻土,2009, 31(1):158-165.Huang Y, Bao A M, Chen X, Liu H L, Yang G H. Studying the GDP in 1 km square gridcells based on oasis land use[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2009, 31(1):158-165.(in Chinese)