长江经济带经济发展质量的演化趋势与对策研究
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摘要
在综合已有文献基础上,设计出包含强盛性、有效性、稳定性、协调性、持续性、包容性等六个特性的经济发展质量评价指标体系,并采用主成分分析法对长江经济带11省市1985-2015年的经济发展质量演化趋势进行了测算和分析.主要研究结论:第一,长江经济带11个省市经济发展质量水平与强盛性以及各省市在长江经济带所处地理位置高度一致.第二,有效性和包容性成为长江经济带经济发展质量水平差异的最重要因素,协调性和稳定性的影响程度则呈弱化态势,而持续性的影响表现为一定的波动性.第三,尽管长三角地区经济增长质量水平无论是综合指标还是分项指标均全面领先,但是,长江经济带各省市经济发展质量的差异呈现出缩小态势.为此,提出以下对策性建议:第一,正确认识经济新常态,科学把握新时代转型升级的新机会.第二,准确把握好政府与市场关系.第三,精准定位供给侧改革提升经济发展质量的路径.第四,综合理解包容性增长的现实和战略意义.
On the basis of the existing literature,this paper designs the evaluation index system of economic development quality which includes six characteristics:strength,effectiveness,stability,coordination,sustainability and in clusiveness.To measure and analyze the economic development quality evolution of Yangtze River economic belt,data from 1985 to 2015 of 11 provinces and municipalities in the economic belt were processed by the principal component analysis method.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,the level of economic development quality in 11 provinces and municipalities.along the Yangtze River economic belt is highly consistent with the strength(that is,GDP per capita)and the geographic location of various provinces and municipalities.Secondly,the impact of effectiveness and inclusiveness on the economic development of the Yangtze River economic belt is constantly expanding.The impact of coordination and stability has been declining in recent years,while the sustainablility's impact has some volatility.Thirdly,although the level of economic growth quality in the Yangtze River Delta region leads both overall and sub-indicators,the differences in the qua lity of economic development among various provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River economic belt show a narrowing trend.Therefore,we put forward the followin g countermeasures:First,we must correctly understand the new economic normal and scientifically gra sp new opportunities for transformation and upgrading in the new era.Second,we should accurately grasp the relationship between the government and the market.Third,we should accurately locate the supply-side reform to enhance th e quality of economic development path.Fourth,we must understand the reality a nd strategic significance of inclusive growth com prehensively.
On the basis of the existing literature,this paper designs the evaluation index system of economic development quality which includes six characteristics:strength,effectiveness,stability,coordination,sustainability and in clusiveness.To measure and analyze the economic development quality evolution of Yangtze River economic belt,data from 1985 to 2015 of 11 provinces and municipalities in the economic belt were processed by the principal component analysis method.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,the level of economic development quality in 11 provinces and municipalities.along the Yangtze River economic belt is highly consistent with the strength(that is,GDP per capita)and the geographic location of various provinces and municipalities.Secondly,the impact of effectiveness and inclusiveness on the economic development of the Yangtze River economic belt is constantly expanding.The impact of coordination and stability has been declining in recent years,while the sustainablility's impact has some volatility.Thirdly,although the level of economic growth quality in the Yangtze River Delta region leads both overall and sub-indicators,the differences in the qua lity of economic development among various provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River economic belt show a narrowing trend.Therefore,we put forward the followin g countermeasures:First,we must correctly understand the new economic normal and scientifically gra sp new opportunities for transformation and upgrading in the new era.Second,we should accurately grasp the relationship between the government and the market.Third,we should accurately locate the supply-side reform to enhance th e quality of economic development path.Fourth,we must understand the reality a nd strategic significance of inclusive growth com prehensively.
引文
[1]刘静娴,沈文星.对合理调整行政区划与区域协同发展之间关系的研究——兼论加快推进长三角地区合作与发展问题[J].现代经济探讨,2018(12):93-96.
[2]王振波,罗奎,宋杰,徐建斌·2000年以来长江经济带城市职能结构演变特征及战略思考[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(11):1409-1418.
[3](苏)B.D.卡马耶夫.经济增长的速度和质量[M].陈华山,左东宜,何剑,陈继勇译.武汉:湖北人民出版社,1983.
[4]Barro R.Quantity and quality of economic growth,in economic growth:sources,trends and cycles[R].Edited by Loayza and Soto.Working paper from Central Bank of Chile,135-162,2002.http://si2.bcentral.cl/public/pdf/bancacentral/pdf/v6/135_162barro.pdf.
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[7]刘树成·论又好又快发展[J].经济研究,2007(6):4-13.
[8]程海森.中国经济增长质量统计思考与实践[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2016.
[9]李健,王芳,钟惠波.中国经济增长质量的驱动因素分析[M].北京:国家行政学院出版社,2016.
[10](印)维诺德·托马斯,王燕.增长的质量[M].张绘,唐仲,林渊译.北京:中国财政经济出版社,2017.
[11]随洪光,刘廷华.FDI是否提升了发展中东道国的经济增长质量一一来自亚太、非洲和拉美地区的经验证据[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014(11):3-20.
[12]任保平,钞小静·从数量型增长向质量型增长转变的政治经济学分析[J].经济学家,2012(11):46-51.
[13]郭克莎.论经济增长的速度与质量[J].经济研究,1996(1):36-42.
[14]Mlachila M,Tapsoba R,and Tapsoba S J A.A quality of growth index for developing countries:a proposal[R].IMF working paper,W/P/14/172,2014.
[15]Dollar D,Kleineberg T,and Kraay A.Growth is still good for the poor[R].Policy Research Working Paper in World Bank,No.6568,2013.
[16]Dollar D,and A.Kraay.Growth is Good for the Poor[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2002,7(3):195-225.
[17]向书坚,郑瑞坤.增长质量、阶段特征与经济转型的关联度[J].改革,2012(1):33-40.
[18]Foster E J,and Szekely M.Is economic growth good for the poor? Tracking low incomes using.general means[J].International Economic Review,2008,29(4):1143-1172.
[19]何强.要素禀赋、内在约束与中国经济增长质量[J].统计研究,2014,31(1):70-77.
[20]范金,袁小慧,张晓兰.提升中国地区经济增长质量的主要间题及其路径研究——以长三角地区为例[J].南京社会科学,2017(10):10-18.
[21]王建斌.我国生产要素配置效率的测算[J].统计与决策,2018,34(23):129-132.
[22]冒袁媛,杨加猛.长三角地区国家生态文明建设绩效评价[J].生态经济,2018,34(16):210-216.
[23]牛文元.中国GDP质量指数[J].中国科学院院刊,2011,26(5):516-525.
[24]范金.可持续发展下的最优经济增长[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2002.
[25]Ekins P.Limits to growth and sustainable development:grappling with ecological.realities[J].Econological Economics,1993,8(3):269-288.
[26]Anand R,,Mishra S,and Peiris S J.Inclusive Growth:Measurement and Determinates[R].IMF working paper,WP/13/135,2013.
[27]于敏,王小林.中国经济的包容性增长:测量与评价[J].经济评论,2012(3):30-38.
[28]杜志雄,肖卫东,詹琳.包容性增长理论的脉络、要义与政策内涵[J].中国农村经济,2010(11):4-14,25.
[29]任保平.经济增长质量,理论阐释、基本命题与伦理原则[J].学术月刊,2012,44(2):63-70.
[30]郑玉歆.全要素生产率的再认识——用TFP分析经济增长质量存在的若干局限[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007(9):3-11.
[31]张红.长江经济带经济发展质量测度研究[J].上海金融,2015(12):19-24.
[32]姚姿臣.区域经济发展方式转变进程评价及路径探索——基于长江经济带11省2003-2015年的经验数据[J].经济地理,2018,38(3):46-52.
[2]王振波,罗奎,宋杰,徐建斌·2000年以来长江经济带城市职能结构演变特征及战略思考[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(11):1409-1418.
[3](苏)B.D.卡马耶夫.经济增长的速度和质量[M].陈华山,左东宜,何剑,陈继勇译.武汉:湖北人民出版社,1983.
[4]Barro R.Quantity and quality of economic growth,in economic growth:sources,trends and cycles[R].Edited by Loayza and Soto.Working paper from Central Bank of Chile,135-162,2002.http://si2.bcentral.cl/public/pdf/bancacentral/pdf/v6/135_162barro.pdf.
[5](匈)亚诺什.科尔奈.突进与和谐的增长[M].张晓光等译.北京:经济科学出版社,1998.
[6]任保平.经济增长质量的逻辑[M].北京:人民出版社,2015.
[7]刘树成·论又好又快发展[J].经济研究,2007(6):4-13.
[8]程海森.中国经济增长质量统计思考与实践[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2016.
[9]李健,王芳,钟惠波.中国经济增长质量的驱动因素分析[M].北京:国家行政学院出版社,2016.
[10](印)维诺德·托马斯,王燕.增长的质量[M].张绘,唐仲,林渊译.北京:中国财政经济出版社,2017.
[11]随洪光,刘廷华.FDI是否提升了发展中东道国的经济增长质量一一来自亚太、非洲和拉美地区的经验证据[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014(11):3-20.
[12]任保平,钞小静·从数量型增长向质量型增长转变的政治经济学分析[J].经济学家,2012(11):46-51.
[13]郭克莎.论经济增长的速度与质量[J].经济研究,1996(1):36-42.
[14]Mlachila M,Tapsoba R,and Tapsoba S J A.A quality of growth index for developing countries:a proposal[R].IMF working paper,W/P/14/172,2014.
[15]Dollar D,Kleineberg T,and Kraay A.Growth is still good for the poor[R].Policy Research Working Paper in World Bank,No.6568,2013.
[16]Dollar D,and A.Kraay.Growth is Good for the Poor[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2002,7(3):195-225.
[17]向书坚,郑瑞坤.增长质量、阶段特征与经济转型的关联度[J].改革,2012(1):33-40.
[18]Foster E J,and Szekely M.Is economic growth good for the poor? Tracking low incomes using.general means[J].International Economic Review,2008,29(4):1143-1172.
[19]何强.要素禀赋、内在约束与中国经济增长质量[J].统计研究,2014,31(1):70-77.
[20]范金,袁小慧,张晓兰.提升中国地区经济增长质量的主要间题及其路径研究——以长三角地区为例[J].南京社会科学,2017(10):10-18.
[21]王建斌.我国生产要素配置效率的测算[J].统计与决策,2018,34(23):129-132.
[22]冒袁媛,杨加猛.长三角地区国家生态文明建设绩效评价[J].生态经济,2018,34(16):210-216.
[23]牛文元.中国GDP质量指数[J].中国科学院院刊,2011,26(5):516-525.
[24]范金.可持续发展下的最优经济增长[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2002.
[25]Ekins P.Limits to growth and sustainable development:grappling with ecological.realities[J].Econological Economics,1993,8(3):269-288.
[26]Anand R,,Mishra S,and Peiris S J.Inclusive Growth:Measurement and Determinates[R].IMF working paper,WP/13/135,2013.
[27]于敏,王小林.中国经济的包容性增长:测量与评价[J].经济评论,2012(3):30-38.
[28]杜志雄,肖卫东,詹琳.包容性增长理论的脉络、要义与政策内涵[J].中国农村经济,2010(11):4-14,25.
[29]任保平.经济增长质量,理论阐释、基本命题与伦理原则[J].学术月刊,2012,44(2):63-70.
[30]郑玉歆.全要素生产率的再认识——用TFP分析经济增长质量存在的若干局限[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007(9):3-11.
[31]张红.长江经济带经济发展质量测度研究[J].上海金融,2015(12):19-24.
[32]姚姿臣.区域经济发展方式转变进程评价及路径探索——基于长江经济带11省2003-2015年的经验数据[J].经济地理,2018,38(3):46-52.