中国省际能源尾效及其影响因素
|
摘要
研究能源尾效的影响因素,探究能源尾效的约束机制,能为当前中国破解经济发展难题提供新思路。本文采用省际面板数据,运用偏最小二乘法测算了中国30省(市、区)1997—2016年间各期能源尾效,利用动态面板模型对全国及分组层面的尾效影响因素展开实证分析。研究表明:①中国存在着能源尾效的约束问题,且在不同发展时期呈现出阶段性特征。②全国层面回归结果显示,尾效滞后项、产业结构、经济发展水平和能源价格对能源尾效的增长具有显著的正向推动作用,而科技投入水平、城市化水平和能源结构对能源尾效具有负向贡献,有利于尾效的削减。③分组层面回归结果显示,尾效滞后项、经济发展水平和能源价格仍为推动尾效增长的不良因素所在,而产业结构、科技投入水平、城市化水平和能源结构则在不同的组别呈现出差异性作用效果。根据研究结论,本文从经济发展质量、能源市场价格调控以及城市化发展等方面提供建议,以寻求合理削减尾效的路径。
Studying the influencing factors and the mechanism of growth drag of energy can provide new ideas for solving the problem in China's economic development. Based on provincial panel data, this study measured the growth drag of energy of 30 provinces in China from 1997 to2016 by using the partial least squares(PLS) method. The dynamic panel model was used to empirically analyze the influencing factors at the national and group levels. The results show that:(1) Growth drag of energy is a constraint in China, which shows different characteristics in different development periods.(2) The results of the national level analyses show that lag term of growth drag, industrial structure, economic development level, and energy price have a significant positive effect on the growth drag of energy. The level of input in science and technology, level of urbanization, and energy structure have negative contributions, which are conducive to the reduction of grow drag.(3) The results of the group level analyses show that lag item of growth drag, economic development level, and energy price are still unfavorable factors that promote growth drag, while industrial structure, level of input in science and technology, level of urbanization, and energy structure have double sided effects, which differ in different groups.Based on these conclusions, this article provides some recommendations with regard to the quality of economic development, price regulation of the energy market, and urbanization development, in order to find reasonable methods to reduce the growth drag of energy.
Studying the influencing factors and the mechanism of growth drag of energy can provide new ideas for solving the problem in China's economic development. Based on provincial panel data, this study measured the growth drag of energy of 30 provinces in China from 1997 to2016 by using the partial least squares(PLS) method. The dynamic panel model was used to empirically analyze the influencing factors at the national and group levels. The results show that:(1) Growth drag of energy is a constraint in China, which shows different characteristics in different development periods.(2) The results of the national level analyses show that lag term of growth drag, industrial structure, economic development level, and energy price have a significant positive effect on the growth drag of energy. The level of input in science and technology, level of urbanization, and energy structure have negative contributions, which are conducive to the reduction of grow drag.(3) The results of the group level analyses show that lag item of growth drag, economic development level, and energy price are still unfavorable factors that promote growth drag, while industrial structure, level of input in science and technology, level of urbanization, and energy structure have double sided effects, which differ in different groups.Based on these conclusions, this article provides some recommendations with regard to the quality of economic development, price regulation of the energy market, and urbanization development, in order to find reasonable methods to reduce the growth drag of energy.
引文
[1] Romer D. Advanced Macroeconomics[M]. New York:McGrawHill Companies, 1996.
[2] Nordhaus W D. Lethal model 2:The limits to growth revisited[J].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1992, 1992(2):1-59.
[3] Bruvoll A, Glomsr?d S, Vennemo H. Environmental drag:Evidence from Norway[J]. Ecological Economics, 1999, 30(2):235-249.
[4] Uri N D. A reconsideration of effect of energy scarcity on economic growth[J]. Energy, 1995, 20(1):1-12.
[5] Davis G A. The resource drag[J]. International Economics&Economic Policy, 2011, 8(2):155-176.
[6]谢书玲,王铮,薛俊波.中国经济发展中水土资源的“增长尾效”分析[J].管理世界, 2005,(7):22-25.[Xie S L, Wang Z, Xue J B. Analysis of the“growth effect”of water and soil resources in China’s economic development[J]. Management World, 2005,(7):22-25.]
[7]薛俊波,王铮,朱建武,等.中国经济增长的“尾效”分析[J].财经研究, 2004, 30(9):5-14.[Xue J B, Wang Z, Zhu J W, et al. An analysis of drag of China’s economic growth[J]. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2004, 30(9):5-14.]
[8]张琳,许晶,王亚辉,等.中国城镇化进程中土地资源尾效的空间分异研究[J].中国土地科学, 2014, 28(6):30-36.[Zhang L,Xu J, Wang Y H, et al. Study on the spatial differentiation of the growth drag effects of land resource in China’s urbanization[J].China Land Sciences, 2014, 28(6):30-36.]
[9]刘耀彬,陈斐.中国城市化进程中的资源消耗“尾效”分析[J].中国工业经济, 2007,(11):48-55.[Liu Y B, Chen F. Analysis on resources consumption drag of China’s urbanization[J]. China Industrial Economy, 2007,(11):48-55.]
[10]张乐勤.城市化进程中资源约束尾效及其演化特征探析:基于安徽省的实证[J].现代城市研究, 2016,(5):117-123.[Zhang L Q. An analysis of resource constraint drag in the urbanization process and its evolution characteristics:An empirical analysis of Anhui Province[J]. Modern Urban Research, 2016,(5):117-123.]
[11]许冬兰,李琰.能源约束对经济增长和城市化影响的实证研究:以山东省为例[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版), 2012, 14(4):74-79.[Xu D L, Li Y. The impacts of energy constraint on economic growth and urbanization process in Shandong Province[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition), 2012, 14(4):74-79.]
[12]李影.中国区域经济增长的能源约束研究[J].统计与决策,2015,(17):122-124.[Li Y. Research on energy constraints of China’s regional economic growth[J]. Statistics&Decision, 2015,(17):122-124.]
[13]曹翔,傅京燕.供给侧要素投入的“增长红利”与“增长尾效”研究[J].经济学家, 2016,(9):25-31.[Cao X, Fu J Y. Research on“growth bonus”and“growth effect”of supply side factor input[J].Economist, 2016,(9):25-31.]
[14]李影,沈坤荣.能源结构约束与中国经济增长:基于能源“尾效”的计量检验[J].资源科学, 2010, 32(11):2192-2199.[Li Y, Shen K R. Energy structural constraint and China’s economic growth:Metrology analysis based on energy“tail drag”[J]. Resources Science, 2010, 32(11):2192-2199.]
[15]米国芳,长青.能源结构和碳排放约束下中国经济增长“尾效”研究[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2017, 31(2):50-55.[Mi G F, Chang Q. Economic growth“drag”under the energy structure and carbon emission constraint in China[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2017, 31(2):50-55.]
[16]刘曙光,纪瑞雪.海域环境恶化对中国海洋捕捞业发展的阻滞效应研究[J].资源科学, 2014, 36(8):1695-1701.[Liu S G, Ji R X. The drag effect of marine environmental deterioration on the development of China’s marine fishing industry[J]. Resources Science, 2014, 36(8):1695-1701.]
[17]薛俊波,赵梦真,朱艳鑫.增长“尾效”、要素贡献率及资源冗余:基于农业的分析[J].技术经济, 2017, 36(11):62-71.[Xue J B,Zhao M Z, Zhu Y X. Growth drag, factor contribution and resource redundancy:Analysis on agriculture[J]. Technology Economics,2017, 36(11):62-71.]
[18]林伯强,孙传旺.如何在保障中国经济增长前提下完成碳减排目标[J].中国社会科学, 2011,(1):64-76.[Lin B Q, Sun C W.How can China achieve its carbon emission reduction target while sustaining economic growth[J]. Social Sciences in China, 2011,(1):64-76.]
[19] Solow R M. Intergenerational equity and exhaustible resources[J].Review of Economic Studies, 1974, 41:29-45.
[20]单豪杰.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952~2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2008,(10):17-31.[Shan H J. Reestimating the capital stock of China:1952~2006[J]. The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics, 2008,(10):17-31.]
[21]卢愿清,史军.中国第三产业能源碳排放影响要素指数分解及实证分析[J].环境科学, 2012, 33(7):2528-2532.[Lu Y Q, Shi J.Decomposition model of energy-related carbon emissions in tertiary industry for China[J]. Environmental Science, 2012, 33(7):2528-2532.]
[22]李翔,刘刚,王蒙.第三产业份额提升是结构红利还是成本病[J].统计研究, 2016, 33(7):46-54.[Li X, Liu G, Wang M. Is the rising proportion of tertiary industry cost disease or structure bonus[J]. Statistical Research, 2016, 33(7):46-54.]
[23] Birol F, Keppler J H. Prices, technology development and the rebound effect[J]. Energy Policy, 2000, 28(6):457-469.
[24]吴利学.中国能源效率波动:理论解释、数值模拟及政策含义[J].经济研究, 2009,(5):130-142.[Wu L X. The fluctuations of China’s energy efficiency:Theoretical explains, numerical simulations and policy experiments[J]. Economic Research Journal,2009,(5):130-142.]
[25] Yeyati E L, Panizza U, Stein E. The cyclical nature of NorthSouth FDI flows[J]. Journal of International Money&Finance,2007, 26(1):104-130.
[26] Bond S R. Dynamic panel data models:A guide to micro data methods and practice[J]. Portuguese Economic Journal, 2002, 1(2):141-162.
[27]包群,邵敏.出口贸易与中国的工资增长:一个经验分析[J].管理世界, 2010,(9):55-66.[Bao Q, Shao M. Between the export trade and the growth of wages in China:An empirical analysis[J].Management World, 2010,(9):55-66.]
[28] Hartwig J. Testing the Baumol-Nordhaus model with Eu Klems Data[J]. Review of Income and Wealth, 2011, 57(3):471-489.
[29]李江帆,曾国军.中国第三产业内部结构升级趋势分析[J].中国工业经济, 2003,(3):34-39.[Li J F, Zeng G J. An analysis on upgrading trends of tertiary industry's internal structure in China[J].China Industrial Economics, 2003,(3):34-39.]
[30]倪鹏飞,杨继瑞,李超,等.中国城市化的结构效应与发展转型:“大国城市化前沿问题学术论坛”综述[J].经济研究,2014,(7):189-192.[Ni P F, Yang J R, Li C, et al. Structural effect and development transformation of Chinese urbanization:An overview of the“academic forum on the frontiers of urbanization in major countries”[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2014,(7):189-192.]
[31]揭水晶,何凌云.内部能源价格相对指数对能耗的调节效应:基于技术效率变动视角的研究[J].资源科学, 2014, 36(3):520-529.[Jie S J, He L Y. The moderating effect of internal energy price relative indices to energy consumption based on technical efficiency change[J]. Resources Science, 2014, 36(3):520-529.]
[32]孔婷,孙林岩,何哲,等.能源价格对制造业能源强度调节效应的实证研究[J].管理科学, 2008, 21(3):2-8.[Kong T, Sun L Y,He Z, et al. An empirical study of energy prices effect on energy intensity in manufacturing industries[J]. Journal of Management Science, 2008, 21(3):2-8.]
[33]赵文军,于津平.贸易开放、FDI与中国工业经济增长方式:基于30个工业行业数据的实证研究[J].经济研究, 2012,(8):18-31.[Zhao W J, Yu J P. Trade openness, FDI and China’s industrial economic growth pattern:Empirical analysis based on data of30 industrial sectors[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2012,(8):18-31.]
[34]陶新宇,靳涛,杨伊婧.“东亚模式”的启迪与中国经济增长“结构之谜”的揭示[J].经济研究, 2017, 52(11):43-58.[Tao X Y,Jin T, Yang Y J. The enlightenment of the east Asian model and the revelation of China’s economic growth structure Puzzle[J].Economic Research Journal, 2017, 52(11):43-58.]
[35]李猛.人口城市化的财政代价及其形成机理:1960年以来的大国经验[J].中国工业经济, 2016,(10):40-56.[Li M. Fiscal cost of urbanization of population and the mechanism:Experience from major-country since 1960[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2016,(10):40-56.]
[36]刘江华,邵帅,姜欣.城市化进程对能源消费的影响:我们离世界水平还有多远?基于国内和国际数据的比较考察[J].财经研究, 2015, 41(2):111-122.[Liu J H, Shao S, Jiang X. Effect of urbanization on energy consumption:How far are we from the world level? Comparative analysis[J]. Journal of Finance and Economics,2015, 41(2):111-122.]
[37] Liang Q M, Fan Y, Wei Y M. The effect of energy end-use efficiency improvement on China’s energy use and CO2emissions:A CGE model-based analysis[J]. Energy Efficiency, 2009, 2(3):243-262.
[38]乔海曙,李菲.中国高速增长时期的“偏低能效陷阱”研究[J].统计与决策, 2016,(24):131-134.[Qiao H S, Li F. Study on the“low energy efficiency trap”in China’s high growth period[J]. Statistics&Decision, 2016,(24):131-134.]
[39]林伯强,刘畅.中国能源补贴改革与有效能源补贴[J].中国社会科学, 2016,(10):52-71.[Lin B Q, Liu C. Chinese energy subsidy reform and effective energy subsidies[J]. Social Sciences in China,2016,(10):52-71.]
[40] Seo M H, Shin Y. Dynamic panels with threshold effect and endogeneity[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2016, 195(2):169-186.
1)国际能源署(IEA)数据显示,中国已于2009年在能源消费总量上超越美国跃居世界首位,并于2011年成为第一大发电国。
2)数据来源为《BP世界能源统计年鉴》2018版(https://www.bp.com/zh_cn/china/reports-and-publications/_bp_2018-_.html)。
3)数据来源于国家统计局数据,2014—2017年中国第三产业国内生产总值增速分别为7.8%、8.3%、7.8%和7.8%。
[2] Nordhaus W D. Lethal model 2:The limits to growth revisited[J].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1992, 1992(2):1-59.
[3] Bruvoll A, Glomsr?d S, Vennemo H. Environmental drag:Evidence from Norway[J]. Ecological Economics, 1999, 30(2):235-249.
[4] Uri N D. A reconsideration of effect of energy scarcity on economic growth[J]. Energy, 1995, 20(1):1-12.
[5] Davis G A. The resource drag[J]. International Economics&Economic Policy, 2011, 8(2):155-176.
[6]谢书玲,王铮,薛俊波.中国经济发展中水土资源的“增长尾效”分析[J].管理世界, 2005,(7):22-25.[Xie S L, Wang Z, Xue J B. Analysis of the“growth effect”of water and soil resources in China’s economic development[J]. Management World, 2005,(7):22-25.]
[7]薛俊波,王铮,朱建武,等.中国经济增长的“尾效”分析[J].财经研究, 2004, 30(9):5-14.[Xue J B, Wang Z, Zhu J W, et al. An analysis of drag of China’s economic growth[J]. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2004, 30(9):5-14.]
[8]张琳,许晶,王亚辉,等.中国城镇化进程中土地资源尾效的空间分异研究[J].中国土地科学, 2014, 28(6):30-36.[Zhang L,Xu J, Wang Y H, et al. Study on the spatial differentiation of the growth drag effects of land resource in China’s urbanization[J].China Land Sciences, 2014, 28(6):30-36.]
[9]刘耀彬,陈斐.中国城市化进程中的资源消耗“尾效”分析[J].中国工业经济, 2007,(11):48-55.[Liu Y B, Chen F. Analysis on resources consumption drag of China’s urbanization[J]. China Industrial Economy, 2007,(11):48-55.]
[10]张乐勤.城市化进程中资源约束尾效及其演化特征探析:基于安徽省的实证[J].现代城市研究, 2016,(5):117-123.[Zhang L Q. An analysis of resource constraint drag in the urbanization process and its evolution characteristics:An empirical analysis of Anhui Province[J]. Modern Urban Research, 2016,(5):117-123.]
[11]许冬兰,李琰.能源约束对经济增长和城市化影响的实证研究:以山东省为例[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版), 2012, 14(4):74-79.[Xu D L, Li Y. The impacts of energy constraint on economic growth and urbanization process in Shandong Province[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition), 2012, 14(4):74-79.]
[12]李影.中国区域经济增长的能源约束研究[J].统计与决策,2015,(17):122-124.[Li Y. Research on energy constraints of China’s regional economic growth[J]. Statistics&Decision, 2015,(17):122-124.]
[13]曹翔,傅京燕.供给侧要素投入的“增长红利”与“增长尾效”研究[J].经济学家, 2016,(9):25-31.[Cao X, Fu J Y. Research on“growth bonus”and“growth effect”of supply side factor input[J].Economist, 2016,(9):25-31.]
[14]李影,沈坤荣.能源结构约束与中国经济增长:基于能源“尾效”的计量检验[J].资源科学, 2010, 32(11):2192-2199.[Li Y, Shen K R. Energy structural constraint and China’s economic growth:Metrology analysis based on energy“tail drag”[J]. Resources Science, 2010, 32(11):2192-2199.]
[15]米国芳,长青.能源结构和碳排放约束下中国经济增长“尾效”研究[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2017, 31(2):50-55.[Mi G F, Chang Q. Economic growth“drag”under the energy structure and carbon emission constraint in China[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2017, 31(2):50-55.]
[16]刘曙光,纪瑞雪.海域环境恶化对中国海洋捕捞业发展的阻滞效应研究[J].资源科学, 2014, 36(8):1695-1701.[Liu S G, Ji R X. The drag effect of marine environmental deterioration on the development of China’s marine fishing industry[J]. Resources Science, 2014, 36(8):1695-1701.]
[17]薛俊波,赵梦真,朱艳鑫.增长“尾效”、要素贡献率及资源冗余:基于农业的分析[J].技术经济, 2017, 36(11):62-71.[Xue J B,Zhao M Z, Zhu Y X. Growth drag, factor contribution and resource redundancy:Analysis on agriculture[J]. Technology Economics,2017, 36(11):62-71.]
[18]林伯强,孙传旺.如何在保障中国经济增长前提下完成碳减排目标[J].中国社会科学, 2011,(1):64-76.[Lin B Q, Sun C W.How can China achieve its carbon emission reduction target while sustaining economic growth[J]. Social Sciences in China, 2011,(1):64-76.]
[19] Solow R M. Intergenerational equity and exhaustible resources[J].Review of Economic Studies, 1974, 41:29-45.
[20]单豪杰.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952~2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2008,(10):17-31.[Shan H J. Reestimating the capital stock of China:1952~2006[J]. The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics, 2008,(10):17-31.]
[21]卢愿清,史军.中国第三产业能源碳排放影响要素指数分解及实证分析[J].环境科学, 2012, 33(7):2528-2532.[Lu Y Q, Shi J.Decomposition model of energy-related carbon emissions in tertiary industry for China[J]. Environmental Science, 2012, 33(7):2528-2532.]
[22]李翔,刘刚,王蒙.第三产业份额提升是结构红利还是成本病[J].统计研究, 2016, 33(7):46-54.[Li X, Liu G, Wang M. Is the rising proportion of tertiary industry cost disease or structure bonus[J]. Statistical Research, 2016, 33(7):46-54.]
[23] Birol F, Keppler J H. Prices, technology development and the rebound effect[J]. Energy Policy, 2000, 28(6):457-469.
[24]吴利学.中国能源效率波动:理论解释、数值模拟及政策含义[J].经济研究, 2009,(5):130-142.[Wu L X. The fluctuations of China’s energy efficiency:Theoretical explains, numerical simulations and policy experiments[J]. Economic Research Journal,2009,(5):130-142.]
[25] Yeyati E L, Panizza U, Stein E. The cyclical nature of NorthSouth FDI flows[J]. Journal of International Money&Finance,2007, 26(1):104-130.
[26] Bond S R. Dynamic panel data models:A guide to micro data methods and practice[J]. Portuguese Economic Journal, 2002, 1(2):141-162.
[27]包群,邵敏.出口贸易与中国的工资增长:一个经验分析[J].管理世界, 2010,(9):55-66.[Bao Q, Shao M. Between the export trade and the growth of wages in China:An empirical analysis[J].Management World, 2010,(9):55-66.]
[28] Hartwig J. Testing the Baumol-Nordhaus model with Eu Klems Data[J]. Review of Income and Wealth, 2011, 57(3):471-489.
[29]李江帆,曾国军.中国第三产业内部结构升级趋势分析[J].中国工业经济, 2003,(3):34-39.[Li J F, Zeng G J. An analysis on upgrading trends of tertiary industry's internal structure in China[J].China Industrial Economics, 2003,(3):34-39.]
[30]倪鹏飞,杨继瑞,李超,等.中国城市化的结构效应与发展转型:“大国城市化前沿问题学术论坛”综述[J].经济研究,2014,(7):189-192.[Ni P F, Yang J R, Li C, et al. Structural effect and development transformation of Chinese urbanization:An overview of the“academic forum on the frontiers of urbanization in major countries”[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2014,(7):189-192.]
[31]揭水晶,何凌云.内部能源价格相对指数对能耗的调节效应:基于技术效率变动视角的研究[J].资源科学, 2014, 36(3):520-529.[Jie S J, He L Y. The moderating effect of internal energy price relative indices to energy consumption based on technical efficiency change[J]. Resources Science, 2014, 36(3):520-529.]
[32]孔婷,孙林岩,何哲,等.能源价格对制造业能源强度调节效应的实证研究[J].管理科学, 2008, 21(3):2-8.[Kong T, Sun L Y,He Z, et al. An empirical study of energy prices effect on energy intensity in manufacturing industries[J]. Journal of Management Science, 2008, 21(3):2-8.]
[33]赵文军,于津平.贸易开放、FDI与中国工业经济增长方式:基于30个工业行业数据的实证研究[J].经济研究, 2012,(8):18-31.[Zhao W J, Yu J P. Trade openness, FDI and China’s industrial economic growth pattern:Empirical analysis based on data of30 industrial sectors[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2012,(8):18-31.]
[34]陶新宇,靳涛,杨伊婧.“东亚模式”的启迪与中国经济增长“结构之谜”的揭示[J].经济研究, 2017, 52(11):43-58.[Tao X Y,Jin T, Yang Y J. The enlightenment of the east Asian model and the revelation of China’s economic growth structure Puzzle[J].Economic Research Journal, 2017, 52(11):43-58.]
[35]李猛.人口城市化的财政代价及其形成机理:1960年以来的大国经验[J].中国工业经济, 2016,(10):40-56.[Li M. Fiscal cost of urbanization of population and the mechanism:Experience from major-country since 1960[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2016,(10):40-56.]
[36]刘江华,邵帅,姜欣.城市化进程对能源消费的影响:我们离世界水平还有多远?基于国内和国际数据的比较考察[J].财经研究, 2015, 41(2):111-122.[Liu J H, Shao S, Jiang X. Effect of urbanization on energy consumption:How far are we from the world level? Comparative analysis[J]. Journal of Finance and Economics,2015, 41(2):111-122.]
[37] Liang Q M, Fan Y, Wei Y M. The effect of energy end-use efficiency improvement on China’s energy use and CO2emissions:A CGE model-based analysis[J]. Energy Efficiency, 2009, 2(3):243-262.
[38]乔海曙,李菲.中国高速增长时期的“偏低能效陷阱”研究[J].统计与决策, 2016,(24):131-134.[Qiao H S, Li F. Study on the“low energy efficiency trap”in China’s high growth period[J]. Statistics&Decision, 2016,(24):131-134.]
[39]林伯强,刘畅.中国能源补贴改革与有效能源补贴[J].中国社会科学, 2016,(10):52-71.[Lin B Q, Liu C. Chinese energy subsidy reform and effective energy subsidies[J]. Social Sciences in China,2016,(10):52-71.]
[40] Seo M H, Shin Y. Dynamic panels with threshold effect and endogeneity[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2016, 195(2):169-186.
1)国际能源署(IEA)数据显示,中国已于2009年在能源消费总量上超越美国跃居世界首位,并于2011年成为第一大发电国。
2)数据来源为《BP世界能源统计年鉴》2018版(https://www.bp.com/zh_cn/china/reports-and-publications/_bp_2018-_.html)。
3)数据来源于国家统计局数据,2014—2017年中国第三产业国内生产总值增速分别为7.8%、8.3%、7.8%和7.8%。