国内外玉米价格变动关系研究
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摘要
国内玉米既面临着生产量、进口量、库存量齐增的困局,又面临着国外低价玉米的严重冲击,供给侧结构性改革势在必行,国内玉米产业竞争力亟待提升。在归纳总结当前国内玉米产业发展特征的基础上,实证分析国内外玉米价格波动的长期均衡关系,并对未来国内玉米价格走势进行研判。研究发现,国内玉米产业发展面临着生产成本高、供给量萎缩、国外低价玉米冲击等问题;国内外玉米价格可能存在着长期均衡关系,国外玉米价格波动对国内玉米价格走向具有显著的引导作用,而国内玉米价格对国外玉米价格影响十分有限;预计短期内国内玉米价格会有小幅波动,中长期会逐渐趋于国外玉米价格水平。
Domestic corn is faced with the dilemma of increase in the production volume,import quantum and inventory as well as the severe impact of low-priced foreign corn. It is necessary to carry out the supply-side structural reform. The competitiveness of domestic corn industry needs to be improved urgently.On the basis of summarizing the current development characteristics of domestic corn industry, this paper empirically analyzes the long-term equilibrium relationship between domestic and foreign corn price fluctuations, and judges the future domestic corn price trend. The study found that the domestic corn industry is facing the problems of high production cost, shrinking supply, and low-priced foreign corn. The domestic and foreign corn prices may have a long-term equilibrium relationship. The foreign corn price fluctuations have a significant guiding effect on domestic corn price trend,but domestic corn prices have very limited impact on foreign corn prices.It is expected that domestic corn prices will fluctuate slightly in the short term and will gradually tend to reach the foreign corn price level in the medium and long term.
Domestic corn is faced with the dilemma of increase in the production volume,import quantum and inventory as well as the severe impact of low-priced foreign corn. It is necessary to carry out the supply-side structural reform. The competitiveness of domestic corn industry needs to be improved urgently.On the basis of summarizing the current development characteristics of domestic corn industry, this paper empirically analyzes the long-term equilibrium relationship between domestic and foreign corn price fluctuations, and judges the future domestic corn price trend. The study found that the domestic corn industry is facing the problems of high production cost, shrinking supply, and low-priced foreign corn. The domestic and foreign corn prices may have a long-term equilibrium relationship. The foreign corn price fluctuations have a significant guiding effect on domestic corn price trend,but domestic corn prices have very limited impact on foreign corn prices.It is expected that domestic corn prices will fluctuate slightly in the short term and will gradually tend to reach the foreign corn price level in the medium and long term.
引文
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[2]孙玉婷,李爽,王刚毅.国内外玉米价格波动的特征分析[J].广东农业科学,2014(21):183-187.
[3]于左,高建凯.中国玉米价格竞争力缺失的形成机制与政策[J].农业经济问题,2013(8):10-19.
[4]朱信凯,韩磊,曾晨晨.信息与农产品价格波动:基于EGARCH模型的分析[J].管理世界,2012(11):57-66.
[5]宋洪远等.农产品价格波动、机理分析与市场调控[J].农业技术经济,2012(10):4-13.
[6]顾国达,方晨靓.中国农产品价格波动特征分析———基于国际市场因素影响下的局面转移模型[J].中国农村经济,2010(11):67-76.
[7]吴海霞,霍学喜.美国新能源法案对中国玉米价格波动的影响研究[J].软科学,2014(9):16-20.
[8]王孝松,谢申祥.国际农产品价格如何影响了中国农产品价格[J].经济研究,2012(3):141-153.
[9]阙树玉,王升.人民币汇率波动对中国农产品进口价格影响的研究[J].农业技术经济,2010(5):15-23.
[10]薛萧繁.国际油价对国内农产品价格的影响[J].统计与管理,2012(6):29-31.
[11]王丽娜,陆迁.国内外玉米市场价格的动态关系及传导效应[J].国际贸易问题,2011(12):19-28.
[12]陆刚.农产品期货价格联动性实证研究———基于中美玉米期货日收盘价数据[J].系统科学与数学,2015(2):181-192.
[13]刘晓宇,王骏.中美玉米期货市场国际关联性研究:基于日数据的实证分析[J].中央财经大学学报,2009(5):37-42.
[14]李国祥.2003年以来中国农产品价格上涨分析[J].中国农村经济,2011(2):11-21.