基于Usher模型及水驱特征曲线的综合预测模型
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摘要
将Usher模型与常用水驱特征曲线相结合,建立了一种能预测水驱油田在不同开发时期的含水率、产油量、产水量、产液量和相应累计产油量等开发指标以及可采储量的联解模型。此模型克服了产量预测模型中缺少含水率和水驱特征曲线缺少开发时间等开发指标的缺陷。油田实际开发数据与预测结果的对比表明,此联解模型的预测精度相对较高,能够满足水驱油田开发指标的动态预测要求。
Combined Usher model with water drive curves, this paper presents a new simultaneous solution model for predicting water cut,oil production rate, water production rate, fluid production rate and cumulative oil production variations with development time and recover-able reserves of a water drive oilfield. This model solves the problems without water cut parameter in yield prediction model and withouttime factor t in water drive curves. Case study shows that the prediction accuracy by this model is relatively higher than others and the mod-el can satisfy the requirements of performance prediction of development indices in water drive oilfields.
Combined Usher model with water drive curves, this paper presents a new simultaneous solution model for predicting water cut,oil production rate, water production rate, fluid production rate and cumulative oil production variations with development time and recover-able reserves of a water drive oilfield. This model solves the problems without water cut parameter in yield prediction model and withouttime factor t in water drive curves. Case study shows that the prediction accuracy by this model is relatively higher than others and the mod-el can satisfy the requirements of performance prediction of development indices in water drive oilfields.
引文
[1]陈元千,邹存友,张枫.水驱曲线法在油田开发评价中的应用[J].断块油气田,2011,18(6):769-771.CHEN Yuanqian,ZOU Cunyou,ZHANG Feng.Application of water drive curve method in oilfield development evaluation[J].FaultBlock Oil&Gas Field,2011,18(6):769-771.
[2]俞启泰.使用水驱特征曲线应重视的几个问题[J].新疆石油地质,2000,21(1):58-61.YU Qitai.Several considerable problems in application of water drive curves[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2000,21(1):58-61.
[3]高文君,徐君.常用水驱特征曲线理论研究[J].石油学报,2007,28(3):89-92.GAO Wenjun,XU Jun.Theoretical study on common water-drive characteristic curves[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2007,28(3):89-92.
[4]陈元千.水驱曲线法的分类、对比与评价[J].新疆石油地质,1994,15(4):348-356.CHEN Yuanqian.Classification,correlation and evaluation of waterdrive performance curve analysis method[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,1994,15(4):348-356.
[5]周志军,罗池辉,李慧敏,等.一种简单实用的新型水驱特征曲线[J].新疆石油地质,2011,32(4):376-377.ZHOU Zhijun,LUO Chihui,LI Huimin,et al.A simple and practical water-drive type curves[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2011,32(4):376-377.
[6]张枫,曹肖萌,易继贵,等.一种评价水驱特征曲线适用性的方法[J].天然气地球科学,2014,25(3):423-428.ZHANG Feng,CAO Xiaomeng,YI Jigui,et al.A method of evaluation suitability of water-flood curve[J].Natural Gas Geoscience,2014,25(3):423-428.
[7]张金庆.一种简单实用的水驱特征曲线[J].石油勘探与开发,1998,25(3):72-73.ZHANG Jinqin.A new practical water displacement curve[J].Petroleum Exploration and Development,1998,25(3):72-73.
[8]俞启泰.水驱特征曲线的应用及其油水渗流特征[J].新疆石油地质,1998,19(6):507-511.YU Qitai.Application of Zhang's water drive curve and its characteristics of oil-water seepage flow[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,1998,19(6):507-511.
[9]俞启泰.水驱特征曲线研究(八)[J].新疆石油地质,2001,22(3):224-228.YU Qitai.Study on Water Displacement Curve-the 8th in series[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2001,22(3):224-228.
[10]蒋明,宋富霞.Usher模型的特征分析及应用[J].天然气工业,1998,18(4):82-86.JIANG Ming,SONG Fuxia.Characteristic and analysisi of Usher model and its application[J].Natural Gas Industry,1998,18(4):82-86.
[11]俞启泰.论Usher、Logistic和Gompertz三种增长曲线的使用价值[J].新疆石油地质,2001,22(2):136-141.YU Qitai.On the usefulness of Usher,Logistic and Gompertz growth curves[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2001,22(2):136-141.
[12]王传飞,韦涛,孙建芳.改进粒子群算法求解广义Usher油田开发动态预测模型[J].新疆石油地质,2012,33(1):102-105.WANG Chuanfei,WEI Tao,SUN Jianfang.Using modified PSO algorithm to solve generalized Usher model for oilfield development performance prediction[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2012,33(1):102-105.
[13]高文君,宋成元,付春雨,等.经典水驱油理论对应水驱特征曲线研究[J].新疆石油地质,2014,35(3):307-310.GAO Wenjun,SONG Chengyuan,FU Chunyu,et al.A study waterdrive type curves corresponding tu the classical theories for water displacing oil[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2014,35(3):307-310.
[14]李社文.广义Usher模型的建立及其在油田生产中的应用[J].新疆石油地质,2001,22(2):133-135.LI Shewen.Application of generalized Usher model for prediction of production and recoverable reserve of oilfield[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2001,22(2):133-135.
[15]聂延波,吴晓慧,乔霞,等.丁型水驱特征曲线在东河砂岩油藏开发指标预测中的应用[J].新疆石油地质,2015,36(2):195-198.NIE Yanbo,WU Xiaohui,QIAO Xia,et al.Application of type D water drive curve to development index forecast in Donghe sandstone reservoir in Hadeson oilfield,Tarim basin[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2015,36(2):195-198.
[2]俞启泰.使用水驱特征曲线应重视的几个问题[J].新疆石油地质,2000,21(1):58-61.YU Qitai.Several considerable problems in application of water drive curves[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2000,21(1):58-61.
[3]高文君,徐君.常用水驱特征曲线理论研究[J].石油学报,2007,28(3):89-92.GAO Wenjun,XU Jun.Theoretical study on common water-drive characteristic curves[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2007,28(3):89-92.
[4]陈元千.水驱曲线法的分类、对比与评价[J].新疆石油地质,1994,15(4):348-356.CHEN Yuanqian.Classification,correlation and evaluation of waterdrive performance curve analysis method[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,1994,15(4):348-356.
[5]周志军,罗池辉,李慧敏,等.一种简单实用的新型水驱特征曲线[J].新疆石油地质,2011,32(4):376-377.ZHOU Zhijun,LUO Chihui,LI Huimin,et al.A simple and practical water-drive type curves[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2011,32(4):376-377.
[6]张枫,曹肖萌,易继贵,等.一种评价水驱特征曲线适用性的方法[J].天然气地球科学,2014,25(3):423-428.ZHANG Feng,CAO Xiaomeng,YI Jigui,et al.A method of evaluation suitability of water-flood curve[J].Natural Gas Geoscience,2014,25(3):423-428.
[7]张金庆.一种简单实用的水驱特征曲线[J].石油勘探与开发,1998,25(3):72-73.ZHANG Jinqin.A new practical water displacement curve[J].Petroleum Exploration and Development,1998,25(3):72-73.
[8]俞启泰.水驱特征曲线的应用及其油水渗流特征[J].新疆石油地质,1998,19(6):507-511.YU Qitai.Application of Zhang's water drive curve and its characteristics of oil-water seepage flow[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,1998,19(6):507-511.
[9]俞启泰.水驱特征曲线研究(八)[J].新疆石油地质,2001,22(3):224-228.YU Qitai.Study on Water Displacement Curve-the 8th in series[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2001,22(3):224-228.
[10]蒋明,宋富霞.Usher模型的特征分析及应用[J].天然气工业,1998,18(4):82-86.JIANG Ming,SONG Fuxia.Characteristic and analysisi of Usher model and its application[J].Natural Gas Industry,1998,18(4):82-86.
[11]俞启泰.论Usher、Logistic和Gompertz三种增长曲线的使用价值[J].新疆石油地质,2001,22(2):136-141.YU Qitai.On the usefulness of Usher,Logistic and Gompertz growth curves[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2001,22(2):136-141.
[12]王传飞,韦涛,孙建芳.改进粒子群算法求解广义Usher油田开发动态预测模型[J].新疆石油地质,2012,33(1):102-105.WANG Chuanfei,WEI Tao,SUN Jianfang.Using modified PSO algorithm to solve generalized Usher model for oilfield development performance prediction[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2012,33(1):102-105.
[13]高文君,宋成元,付春雨,等.经典水驱油理论对应水驱特征曲线研究[J].新疆石油地质,2014,35(3):307-310.GAO Wenjun,SONG Chengyuan,FU Chunyu,et al.A study waterdrive type curves corresponding tu the classical theories for water displacing oil[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2014,35(3):307-310.
[14]李社文.广义Usher模型的建立及其在油田生产中的应用[J].新疆石油地质,2001,22(2):133-135.LI Shewen.Application of generalized Usher model for prediction of production and recoverable reserve of oilfield[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2001,22(2):133-135.
[15]聂延波,吴晓慧,乔霞,等.丁型水驱特征曲线在东河砂岩油藏开发指标预测中的应用[J].新疆石油地质,2015,36(2):195-198.NIE Yanbo,WU Xiaohui,QIAO Xia,et al.Application of type D water drive curve to development index forecast in Donghe sandstone reservoir in Hadeson oilfield,Tarim basin[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2015,36(2):195-198.