保险能改善对农户的信贷配给吗?——来自822户农户调查的经验证据
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摘要
针对保险能否支持农户融资的问题,基于2014年陕、苏二省822户农户的调查数据,采用四元Probit模型,在有效分离信贷、保险供需行为的前提下,对保险之于农户信贷供给的影响进行实证检验。结果显示,总体上保险的存在显著提高了农户获取正规信贷的能力,但与信贷损失挂钩的农作物保险相比其他类别的商业保险更能发挥作用;同时,陕西样本地区相比江苏样本地区保险对信贷的支持作用更加明显,而这一差异来源于陕西样本地区政策性的银保互联支持。研究为信贷保险互联的制度安排提供了进一步经验支持。着眼于缓解农户信贷配给,应当进一步支持构建多样化的信贷保险关联机制。
This article examines how insurance affect credit access of rural households. By using quaternary Probit model and the survey data of 822 rural households in Shanxi and Jiangsu Provinces in 2014, the paper empirically tests the impact of insurance on the credit supply of rural households. Results show that insurance in general significantly improves the ability of rural households to gain formal credits, and crop insurance, which is connected with credit loss, plays a better role compared with other types of commercial insurance. Meanwhile, insurance of the sample region of Shanxi Province provides stronger support to credit than the sample region of Jiangsu Province. The difference lies in the policy-guided bank-insurance interconnection support of the sample region in Shanxi. The article provides further empirical support for the institutional arrangement of bank-insurance interconnection. From the perspective of alleviating the credit rationing of farmers, more support should be given to the construction of diversified bank-insurance interconnection mechanisms.
This article examines how insurance affect credit access of rural households. By using quaternary Probit model and the survey data of 822 rural households in Shanxi and Jiangsu Provinces in 2014, the paper empirically tests the impact of insurance on the credit supply of rural households. Results show that insurance in general significantly improves the ability of rural households to gain formal credits, and crop insurance, which is connected with credit loss, plays a better role compared with other types of commercial insurance. Meanwhile, insurance of the sample region of Shanxi Province provides stronger support to credit than the sample region of Jiangsu Province. The difference lies in the policy-guided bank-insurance interconnection support of the sample region in Shanxi. The article provides further empirical support for the institutional arrangement of bank-insurance interconnection. From the perspective of alleviating the credit rationing of farmers, more support should be given to the construction of diversified bank-insurance interconnection mechanisms.
引文
[1] Stiglitz J E and Weiss A.Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information [J].American Economic Review,1981,71(3):393-410.
[2] 刘祚祥,郭伦国,杨勇.信息共享、风险分担与农村银保互动机制[J].广东金融学院学报,2010,(3):63-73.
[3] Andrew J Hogan.Crop Credit Insurance and Technical Change in Agricultural Development:A Theoretical Analysis [J].The Journal of Risk and Insurance,1983,50(1):118-130.
[4] 吴本健,单希,马九杰.信贷保险、金融机构信贷供给与农户借贷决策——来自 F 县草莓种植“信贷+保险”的证据[J].保险研究,2013,(8):45-53.
[5] 牛浩,陈盛伟.农业保险与农村信贷合作产品研究[J].保险研究,2014,(12):32-40.
[6] 李军.我国涉农信贷与保险耦合模式研究[D].长沙:中南大学博士学位论文,2011.
[7] 方首军,黄泽颖,孙良媛.农业保险与农业信贷互动关系的理论分析与实证研究:1985～2009[J].农村金融研究,2012,(6):60-65.
[8] 祝国平,刘吉舫.农业保险是否支持了农业信贷?——来自全国227个地级市的证据[J].农村经济,2014,(10):77-81.
[9] 安冬,张元波,陈思齐.农业保险影响农业信贷的机制与实证研究[J].开发研究,2015,(1):44-47.
[10] 张建军,张兵.农业信贷与保险互联影响农户风险配给实证研究——基于江苏、湖北两省的调研数据[J].南京农业大学学报:社会科学版,2012,12(4):77-84.
[11] Binswanger P Hans,and Hazell Peter.Risk Aversion,Collateral Requirements,and the Markets for Credit and Insurance in Rural Areas[C]// P Hazell,C Pomareda and A Valdés (eds.).Crop Insurance for Agricultural Development.Baltimore and London:The Johns Hopkins University Press,1986:67-86.
[12] 刘祚祥,黄权国.信息生产能力、农业保险与农村金融市场的信贷配给——基于修正的 S-W 模型的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2012,(5):53-64.
[13] 崔杰.保险降低农村信贷信息不对称的机理分析[J].求索,2012,(1).
[14] Pomareda C.An Evaluation of Impact of Credit Insurance on Bank Performance in Panama [C]// Crop Insurance for Agricultural Development.Baltimore and London:The Johns Hopkins University Press,1986:101-116.
[15] Pflueger B W,Barry P J.Crop Insurance and Credit:A Farm Level Simulation Analysis[J].Agricultural Finance Review,1986,46:1-14.
[16] Jennifer E Ifft,Todd Kuethe,Mitch Morehart.Does Federal Crop Insurance Lead to Higher Farm Debt Use?Evidence from the Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS)[J].Agricultural Finance Review,2015,75(3):349-367.
[17] Mishra P K.Crop Insurance and Crop Credit:Impact of the Comprehensive Crop Insurance Scheme on Cooperative Credit in Gujarat [J].Journal of International Development,1994,6(5):529-567.
[18] S O Olubiyo and G P Hill.An Assessment of the Operation of Agricultural Insurance Scheme in Nigeria [J].Savings and Development,2005,29 (3):293-312.
[19] 黄祖辉,刘西川,程恩江.生产性抑或消费性——方法比较与实证分析[J].管理世界,2007,(3):73-80.
[20] Kenneth J Arrow.保险、风险与资源配置[C]// 乔治斯·迪翁,斯科特· E.哈林顿.保险经济学.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2005.
[21] Rothschild Michael,and Stiglitz Joseph.Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets:an Essay on the Economics of Imperfect Information[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1976,90:629-649.
[22] Cappellari L,and S P Jenkins.Multivariate Probit Regression Using Simulated Maximum Likelihood [J].Stata Journal,2003,3(3):278-294.
[23] Akoten J E,Y Sawadat and K Otsuka.The Determinants of Credit Access and Its Impacts on Micro and Small Enterprises:The Case of Garment Producers in Kenya [J].Economic Development and Cultural Change,2006,54(4):927-944.
[24] 刘西川,杨奇明,陈立辉.农户信贷市场的正规部门与非正规部门:替代还是互补?[J].经济研究,2014,(11):145-158.
[25] 林佳显,龙志和,林光平.空间随机前沿模型的模拟极大似然估计及其应用[C]// Proceedings of 2010 International Conference on Future Information Technology and Management Engineering (FITME 2010).New York:Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers(IEEE),Volume 3.2010:329-333.
① 常见做法是将保险作为农户申请信贷的条件,与抵押(担保)形成替代或补充。农户无法履约还款时,保险赔款优先用于偿还贷款。作为向农户授信条件的保险一般包括农作物保险或其他相关财产保险、贷款信用保证保险、主要劳动力的意外伤害保险等。
(1)中国的《农业保险条例》中规定“农业保险”为以有生命的农作物为保险标的的各类保险,同时规定“涉农保险”是指农业保险以外、为农民在农业生产生活中提供保险保障的保险,包括农房、农机具、渔船等财产保险,涉及农民的生命和身体等方面的短期意外伤害保险。
(2)截至2014年底,陕西样本地区有财政支持的种养两业农作物保险品种15个,江苏样本地区共有财政支持的包括种、养、农机具和设施农业在内的30余种涉农保险(来自地方保险监管部门统计信息)。
(3)就农户信贷行为而言,也同时受其自身需求和保险部门的影响,理性的信贷供给者在放贷决策中,也会考虑农户对保险的需求及保险供给。
(4)在信贷约束的环境下,部分需求存在不可观察特征,这是须控制住需求的另一原因。
(5)农业保险并不例外,2012年2月我国发布《农业保险条例》,对农业保险定性为“有国家支持的商业保险”,目前农业保险均是由商业保险公司开发经营,财政部门仅对部分品种提供保费补贴。
(6)联系实际,两个供给间的关联应主要是保险对信贷供给的影响,因为一般认为,保险的供给意愿主要取决于被保险人(作物)的风险状况,是否有信贷并无直接影响。
(7)是一种用模拟抽样得到的无偏逼近函数代替似然函数的条件概率密度的方法,适于处理密度函数不存在解析式或形式较为复杂的情形。当模拟抽样次数较大时,SML估计的分布与一般ML估计等同,参见林佳显等(2010)。
(8)因篇幅所限,这部分估计结果未列出,有兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(9)比如根据我国现行《合同法》和《保险法》的相关规定,人寿保险不属于债务的追偿范围,其保险金不能用于偿付被保险人的债务。
(10)因篇幅所限,这部分估计结果未列出,有兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(11)这部分估计结果因篇幅所限未列出,有兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
[2] 刘祚祥,郭伦国,杨勇.信息共享、风险分担与农村银保互动机制[J].广东金融学院学报,2010,(3):63-73.
[3] Andrew J Hogan.Crop Credit Insurance and Technical Change in Agricultural Development:A Theoretical Analysis [J].The Journal of Risk and Insurance,1983,50(1):118-130.
[4] 吴本健,单希,马九杰.信贷保险、金融机构信贷供给与农户借贷决策——来自 F 县草莓种植“信贷+保险”的证据[J].保险研究,2013,(8):45-53.
[5] 牛浩,陈盛伟.农业保险与农村信贷合作产品研究[J].保险研究,2014,(12):32-40.
[6] 李军.我国涉农信贷与保险耦合模式研究[D].长沙:中南大学博士学位论文,2011.
[7] 方首军,黄泽颖,孙良媛.农业保险与农业信贷互动关系的理论分析与实证研究:1985～2009[J].农村金融研究,2012,(6):60-65.
[8] 祝国平,刘吉舫.农业保险是否支持了农业信贷?——来自全国227个地级市的证据[J].农村经济,2014,(10):77-81.
[9] 安冬,张元波,陈思齐.农业保险影响农业信贷的机制与实证研究[J].开发研究,2015,(1):44-47.
[10] 张建军,张兵.农业信贷与保险互联影响农户风险配给实证研究——基于江苏、湖北两省的调研数据[J].南京农业大学学报:社会科学版,2012,12(4):77-84.
[11] Binswanger P Hans,and Hazell Peter.Risk Aversion,Collateral Requirements,and the Markets for Credit and Insurance in Rural Areas[C]// P Hazell,C Pomareda and A Valdés (eds.).Crop Insurance for Agricultural Development.Baltimore and London:The Johns Hopkins University Press,1986:67-86.
[12] 刘祚祥,黄权国.信息生产能力、农业保险与农村金融市场的信贷配给——基于修正的 S-W 模型的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2012,(5):53-64.
[13] 崔杰.保险降低农村信贷信息不对称的机理分析[J].求索,2012,(1).
[14] Pomareda C.An Evaluation of Impact of Credit Insurance on Bank Performance in Panama [C]// Crop Insurance for Agricultural Development.Baltimore and London:The Johns Hopkins University Press,1986:101-116.
[15] Pflueger B W,Barry P J.Crop Insurance and Credit:A Farm Level Simulation Analysis[J].Agricultural Finance Review,1986,46:1-14.
[16] Jennifer E Ifft,Todd Kuethe,Mitch Morehart.Does Federal Crop Insurance Lead to Higher Farm Debt Use?Evidence from the Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS)[J].Agricultural Finance Review,2015,75(3):349-367.
[17] Mishra P K.Crop Insurance and Crop Credit:Impact of the Comprehensive Crop Insurance Scheme on Cooperative Credit in Gujarat [J].Journal of International Development,1994,6(5):529-567.
[18] S O Olubiyo and G P Hill.An Assessment of the Operation of Agricultural Insurance Scheme in Nigeria [J].Savings and Development,2005,29 (3):293-312.
[19] 黄祖辉,刘西川,程恩江.生产性抑或消费性——方法比较与实证分析[J].管理世界,2007,(3):73-80.
[20] Kenneth J Arrow.保险、风险与资源配置[C]// 乔治斯·迪翁,斯科特· E.哈林顿.保险经济学.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2005.
[21] Rothschild Michael,and Stiglitz Joseph.Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets:an Essay on the Economics of Imperfect Information[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1976,90:629-649.
[22] Cappellari L,and S P Jenkins.Multivariate Probit Regression Using Simulated Maximum Likelihood [J].Stata Journal,2003,3(3):278-294.
[23] Akoten J E,Y Sawadat and K Otsuka.The Determinants of Credit Access and Its Impacts on Micro and Small Enterprises:The Case of Garment Producers in Kenya [J].Economic Development and Cultural Change,2006,54(4):927-944.
[24] 刘西川,杨奇明,陈立辉.农户信贷市场的正规部门与非正规部门:替代还是互补?[J].经济研究,2014,(11):145-158.
[25] 林佳显,龙志和,林光平.空间随机前沿模型的模拟极大似然估计及其应用[C]// Proceedings of 2010 International Conference on Future Information Technology and Management Engineering (FITME 2010).New York:Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers(IEEE),Volume 3.2010:329-333.
① 常见做法是将保险作为农户申请信贷的条件,与抵押(担保)形成替代或补充。农户无法履约还款时,保险赔款优先用于偿还贷款。作为向农户授信条件的保险一般包括农作物保险或其他相关财产保险、贷款信用保证保险、主要劳动力的意外伤害保险等。
(1)中国的《农业保险条例》中规定“农业保险”为以有生命的农作物为保险标的的各类保险,同时规定“涉农保险”是指农业保险以外、为农民在农业生产生活中提供保险保障的保险,包括农房、农机具、渔船等财产保险,涉及农民的生命和身体等方面的短期意外伤害保险。
(2)截至2014年底,陕西样本地区有财政支持的种养两业农作物保险品种15个,江苏样本地区共有财政支持的包括种、养、农机具和设施农业在内的30余种涉农保险(来自地方保险监管部门统计信息)。
(3)就农户信贷行为而言,也同时受其自身需求和保险部门的影响,理性的信贷供给者在放贷决策中,也会考虑农户对保险的需求及保险供给。
(4)在信贷约束的环境下,部分需求存在不可观察特征,这是须控制住需求的另一原因。
(5)农业保险并不例外,2012年2月我国发布《农业保险条例》,对农业保险定性为“有国家支持的商业保险”,目前农业保险均是由商业保险公司开发经营,财政部门仅对部分品种提供保费补贴。
(6)联系实际,两个供给间的关联应主要是保险对信贷供给的影响,因为一般认为,保险的供给意愿主要取决于被保险人(作物)的风险状况,是否有信贷并无直接影响。
(7)是一种用模拟抽样得到的无偏逼近函数代替似然函数的条件概率密度的方法,适于处理密度函数不存在解析式或形式较为复杂的情形。当模拟抽样次数较大时,SML估计的分布与一般ML估计等同,参见林佳显等(2010)。
(8)因篇幅所限,这部分估计结果未列出,有兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(9)比如根据我国现行《合同法》和《保险法》的相关规定,人寿保险不属于债务的追偿范围,其保险金不能用于偿付被保险人的债务。
(10)因篇幅所限,这部分估计结果未列出,有兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(11)这部分估计结果因篇幅所限未列出,有兴趣的读者可向作者索取。