四川省老龄化时空演变及影响因素
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摘要
新世纪之交,伴随大量青壮年流出,西部地区人口老龄化快速增长,探讨其时空演变及驱动机理,对正确应对人口老龄化十分必要。以四川省为例,采用标准差椭圆、空间自相关、地理加权回归(GWR)模型等方法,分析其1990-2010年间人口老龄化时空演变及影响因素。结果表明:(1)人口老龄化呈现"东高西低"的总体格局。(2) 1990-2010年间,人口老龄化均值由8.98%增至16.39%,全面进入老龄型社会,步入老龄型的县域多分布在东部盆地,空间极化增强,并向东偏南方向移动,呈现显著的盆地化效应。(3)人口老龄化总体空间集聚性显著,热点区由西北—东南走向转变为西南—东北走向,冷点区从西南部扩展至整个川西地区。(4)各因素在局部区域对人口老龄化的影响程度不同,空间差异变动明显。持续降低的出生率、死亡率推动了老龄化,较高的迁出率加剧了老龄化,迁入率则缓解了老龄化,经济水平、城镇化水平对人口老龄化的贡献率较高,教育水平的影响为负,医疗水平既有抑制也有推动作用。
Sichuan province,though a mid-west central province in China,is one of the provinces with largest population and rapid population aging caused by large scale outflow of younger adult labors as that in the mid-west provinces and by rapid fall of fertility as that in most eastern provinces.Thus the study of aging in Sichuan province can be great value and this paper tries to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution and causes of Sichuan's population aging from 1990 to 2010 by using the methods such as standard deviation ellipse,spatial autocorrelation and GWR model.Results show:1.The overall pattern of population aging is high in east and low in west;2.From 1990 to 2010,the population aging mean increased from 8.98% to 16.39% and the province is now in the complete aging stage with the highest degree aging in eastern basins.The spatial polarization strengthens to the east-to-south direction with a significant basin-oriented effect;3.The spatial distribution of population aging show a significant overall spatial clustering,wherein the hotspots of aging stretch from the northwest-southeast direction to the southwest-northeast direction,while cold spots extended from southwest to the western Sichuan region;4.The factors causing population aging show significant spatial differential variation,demographic analysis show that the aging is caused by continuous low fertility and is intensified by the high emigration rate,and is relieved by the immigration rate.On the other hand,the social factors influencing aging includes the economic development,urbanization,education,medication.
Sichuan province,though a mid-west central province in China,is one of the provinces with largest population and rapid population aging caused by large scale outflow of younger adult labors as that in the mid-west provinces and by rapid fall of fertility as that in most eastern provinces.Thus the study of aging in Sichuan province can be great value and this paper tries to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution and causes of Sichuan's population aging from 1990 to 2010 by using the methods such as standard deviation ellipse,spatial autocorrelation and GWR model.Results show:1.The overall pattern of population aging is high in east and low in west;2.From 1990 to 2010,the population aging mean increased from 8.98% to 16.39% and the province is now in the complete aging stage with the highest degree aging in eastern basins.The spatial polarization strengthens to the east-to-south direction with a significant basin-oriented effect;3.The spatial distribution of population aging show a significant overall spatial clustering,wherein the hotspots of aging stretch from the northwest-southeast direction to the southwest-northeast direction,while cold spots extended from southwest to the western Sichuan region;4.The factors causing population aging show significant spatial differential variation,demographic analysis show that the aging is caused by continuous low fertility and is intensified by the high emigration rate,and is relieved by the immigration rate.On the other hand,the social factors influencing aging includes the economic development,urbanization,education,medication.
引文
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[25]张开洲,陈楠.1990-2010年福建省县域人口老龄化时空演变特征及其驱动机制[J].地理科学进展,2014(5):605-615.
[26]魏秀梅,李丁,张超,等.甘肃省人口老龄化空间分异及影响因素研究[J].资源开发与市场,2015(3):283-287.
[27]赵儒煜,刘畅,张锋.中国人口老龄化区域溢出与分布差异的空间计量经济学研究[J].人口研究,2012(2):71-81.
[28]金淑婷,李博,杨永春,等.中国城市分布特征及其影响因素[J].地理研究,2015(7):1352-1366.
[29]徐建华.计量地理学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2006:121-125.
[30]张耀军,任正委.基于地理加权回归的山区人口分布影响因素实证研究[J].人口研究,2012(4):53-63.
[31]Ahmed B and Stanley K S.How changes in components of growth affect th-e population aging of states[J].Journal of Gerontology:Social Sciences,1992,47:27-37.
[2]J,Mladek J.A comparison of population ageing in the Czech Repu-blic and the Slovak Republic based on generation support and exchange[J].Moravian Geog-raphical Reports,2012,20(4):26-38.
[3]Rogers A,Watkins J F,Woodward J A.Interregional elderly migration and population redis-tribution in four industrialized countries.A comparative analysis[J].Research on Aging:Ag-ing:An international Bi monthly Journal,1990,12(3):251-293.
[4]Rogers A,Woodward J A.Tempos of elderly age and geographical concentration[J].The Pro-fessional Geographer,1992,44(1):72-78.
[5]王志宝,金航.中日人口老龄化区域演变差异分析[J].世界地理研究,2016(4):29-39.
[6]王志宝,孙铁山,张杰斐.人口老龄化区域类型划分与区域演变分析-以中美日韩四国为例[J].地理科学,2015,(7):822-830.
[7]王录仓,武荣伟,刘海猛,等.县域尺度下中国人口老龄化的空间格局与区域差异[J].2016(8):921-931.
[8]王录仓,武荣伟,李巍.中国城市群人口老龄化时空格局[J].地理学报,2017(6):1001-1016.
[9]林琳,杨莹,李冠杰,等.中国农村人口老龄化省际差异及类型划分[J].地域研究与开发,2016(4):154-160.
[10]王泽宇,孙然,韩增林,等.中国人口老龄化水平测度与空间关联研究[J].地域研究与开发,2013(3):138-143.
[11]康江江,丁志伟,张改素,王发曾,武荣伟.中原地区人口老龄化的多尺度时空格局[J].经济地理,2016,36(4):29-37.
[12]易卫华,叶信岳,王哲野.广东省人口老龄化的时空演化及成因分析[J].人口与经济,2015(3):33-42.
[13]张芹,张晓青.山东省人口老龄化空间分布与演化分析-基于探索性空间分析技术(ES-DA)[J].鲁东大学学报(自然科学版),2014(3):242-248.
[14]周春山,童新梅,王珏晗,赖舒琳.2000-2010年广州市人口老龄化空间分异及形成机制[J].地理研究,2018(1):103-118.
[15]林琳,马飞.广州市人口老龄化的空间分布及趋势[J].地理研究,2007(5):1043-1054.
[16]许昕,赵媛,郭爱妹.基于街道尺度的南京市老年人口空间分布演变研究[J].人文地理,2016(6):88-94,129.
[17]王新贤,高向东,陶树果.上海市人口老龄化的空间分布及演化特征研究[J].上海经济研究,2016(8):120-129.
[18]袁俊,吴殿廷,吴铮争.中国农村人口老龄化的空间差异及其影响因素分析[J].中国人口科学,2007(3):41-47.
[19]许昕,赵媛,张新林,等.江苏省人口老龄化空间分异演变及影响因素[J].地理科学,2017(12):1859-1866.
[20]杨彩萍,汤茂林,王爽.江苏省县域老龄化空间格局及影响因素分析[J].南京师范大学(自然科学版),2016(2):125-132.
[21]刘华军,何礼伟,杨骞.中国人口老龄化的空间非均衡及分布动态演进:1989-2011[J].人口研究,2014(2):71-82.
[22]陈明华,郝国彩.中国人口老龄化地区差异分解及影响因素研究[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2014(4):136-141.
[23]马晓理,张旺锋,薛海燕,李坤.甘肃省人口老龄化空间分布及演变特征分析[J].西北人口,2014(6):115-121.
[24]梅林,郭艳花,陈妍.吉林省人口老龄化时空分异特征及成因[J].地理科学进展,2018(3):352-362.
[25]张开洲,陈楠.1990-2010年福建省县域人口老龄化时空演变特征及其驱动机制[J].地理科学进展,2014(5):605-615.
[26]魏秀梅,李丁,张超,等.甘肃省人口老龄化空间分异及影响因素研究[J].资源开发与市场,2015(3):283-287.
[27]赵儒煜,刘畅,张锋.中国人口老龄化区域溢出与分布差异的空间计量经济学研究[J].人口研究,2012(2):71-81.
[28]金淑婷,李博,杨永春,等.中国城市分布特征及其影响因素[J].地理研究,2015(7):1352-1366.
[29]徐建华.计量地理学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2006:121-125.
[30]张耀军,任正委.基于地理加权回归的山区人口分布影响因素实证研究[J].人口研究,2012(4):53-63.
[31]Ahmed B and Stanley K S.How changes in components of growth affect th-e population aging of states[J].Journal of Gerontology:Social Sciences,1992,47:27-37.