基于人口经济数据分析我国城市收缩现状
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摘要
城市收缩作为城镇化进程中的普遍现象受到广泛关注。为了解我国城市收缩的现状,加深对我国城市收缩问题的理解,文章选取329个城市研究其人口变化表现,并从中筛选出64个收缩城市,进一步利用人口和经济两个特征对已识别的收缩城市的本质进行界定。其次分别从绝对收缩和相对收缩两个性质分析收缩城市形成的关键原因,发现绝对收缩城市的形成主要原因在于城市经济结构的瓦解,相对收缩城市的形成原因在于城市劳动力的大量外流。
As a common phenomenon of urbanization, urban shrinkage has appealed for more and more attention. Urban shrinkage always happened in developed countries, but in recent years, some cities in China are shrinking. Urban shrinkage in China is different from developed countries. In order to find the features, this paper adopted retroduction method to filter 64 shrinking cities from all of 329 cities in China and defined the absolute shrinking city and relative shrinking city. Then, this paper used backtracking method to discuss the key factors caused the absolute and relative shrinking city. It is found that most shrinking cities in China are relative shrinkage, and labor movement pays many contributions to relative shrinking city; the formation of absolute shrinking city is caused by the collapse of the urban economic structure. The results are conducive to deeply understand the phenomenon of urban shrinkage in China and provide reference for policy recommendations.
As a common phenomenon of urbanization, urban shrinkage has appealed for more and more attention. Urban shrinkage always happened in developed countries, but in recent years, some cities in China are shrinking. Urban shrinkage in China is different from developed countries. In order to find the features, this paper adopted retroduction method to filter 64 shrinking cities from all of 329 cities in China and defined the absolute shrinking city and relative shrinking city. Then, this paper used backtracking method to discuss the key factors caused the absolute and relative shrinking city. It is found that most shrinking cities in China are relative shrinkage, and labor movement pays many contributions to relative shrinking city; the formation of absolute shrinking city is caused by the collapse of the urban economic structure. The results are conducive to deeply understand the phenomenon of urban shrinkage in China and provide reference for policy recommendations.
引文
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[25]段成荣,杨舸.中国流动人口状况——基于2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据的分析[J].南京人口管理干部学院学报,2009,25(4):5-9,15.
[26]段成荣,杨舸.我国流动儿童最新状况——基于2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据的分析[J].人口学刊,2008,25(6):23-31.
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[28]杜春萌,焦利民,许刚.中国地级以上城市建成区2006—2016年人口密度变化的时空格局及驱动因素[J].热带地理,2018,38(6):791-798.
[29]殷江滨,祝明明,范虹. 2000—2010年西安市人口演变的空间差异与多中心模拟[J].陕西师范大学学报:自然科学版,2016,44(3):102-109.
[30]高珮义.城市引力场论——城市化基本原理初探[J].北京大学学报哲学社会科学版,1990,27(6):83-90.
[31]埃比尼泽·霍华德.明日的田园城市[M].商务印书馆,2011.
[32]周其仁.城乡中国:流动、集聚与机遇[J].北大商业评论,2013,7(7):50-53.
[33]参考消息.东北衰败的根本原因是什么?[EB/OL]. http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2018-01-15/doc-ifyqqciz7265623.shtml,2018-01-15.
[2]高舒琦.收缩城市的现象、概念与研究溯源[J].国际城市规划,2017,32(3):50-58.
[3]周恺,钱芳芳.收缩城市:逆增长情景下的城市发展路径研究进展[J].现代城市研究,2015,9(9):1-13.
[4] Robert A. BeauregardAberrant Cities:Urban Population Loss in the United States,1820-1930[J]. Urban Geography,2003,24(8):672-690.
[5]龙瀛,吴康.中国城市化的几个现实问题:空间扩张、人口收缩、低密度人类活动与城市范围界定[J].城市规划学刊,2016,2(2):72-77.
[6]马佐澎,李诚固,张婧,等.发达国家城市收缩现象及其对中国的启示[J].人文地理,2016,2(2):13-17.
[7]杨东峰,龙瀛,杨文诗,等.人口流失与空间扩张:中国快速城市化进程中的城市收缩悖论[J].现代城市研究,2015,9(9):20-25.
[8]张学良,刘玉博,吕存超.中国城市收缩的背景、识别与特征分析[J].东南大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2016,18(4):132-139.
[9]李郇,吴康,龙瀛,等.局部收缩:后增长时代下的城市可持续发展争鸣[J].地理研究,2017,10(10):1 997-2 016.
[10] Haase A,Nelle A,Mallach A. Representing urban shrinkage:The importance of discourse as a frame for understanding conditions and policy[J]. Cities,2017,9(7):95-101.
[11] Hattori K,Kaido K,Matsuyuki M. The development of urban shrinkage discourse and policy response in Japan[J]. Cities,2017,2(11):124-132.
[12] Mallach A,Haase A,Hattori K. The shrinking city in comparative perspective:Contrasting dynamics and responses to urban shrinkage[J]. Cities,2017,9(8):102-108.
[13] Haaseab D,Kabisch N,Kabisch S,et al.Actors and factors in land-use simulation:The challenge of urban shrinkage[J]. Environmental Modelling&Software,2012,35(5):92-103.
[14] Nelle A,Gro?mann K,Haase D,et al. Urban shrinkage in Germany:An entangled web of conditions,debates and policies[J]. Cities,2017,69:116-123.
[15] Joo Y M,Seo B. Dual policy to fight urban shrinkage:Daegu,South Korea[J]. Cities,2018,73:128-137.
[16]徐博,庞德良.增长与衰退:国际城市收缩问题研究及对中国的启示[J].经济学家,2014,4(4):5-13.
[17] Hoekveld J J. Time-Space Relations and the Differences Between Shrinking Regions[J]. Built Environment,2012,38(2):179-195.
[18] Dr Thorsten WiechmannErrors Expected:Aligning Urban Strategy with Demographic Uncertainty in Shrinking Cities?[J]. International Planning Studies,2008,13(4):431-446.
[19] Pinho P. Planning for Shrinkage:Paradox or Paradigm[J]. European Planning Studies,2015,23(1):12-32.
[20] Tanvi Maheshwari. Redefining Shrinking Cities[EB/OL].https://berkeleyplanningjournal.com/urbanfringe/2013/12/redefiningshrinking-cities.
[21] Martinez-Fernandez C,Audirac I,Fol S,et al.Shrinking cities:urban challenges of globalization[J]. Int J Urban Reg Res,2012,36(2):213-225.
[22] Castells M,Cardoso G. The Network Society:From Knowledge to Policy[C]. Washington,DC:Johns Hopkins Center forTransatlantic Relations,2005.
[23] Hartt M D. How cities shrink:Complex pathways to population decline[J]. Cities,2016,12(5):38-49.
[24]李松儒.基于大城市扩张小城市收缩的背景下,小城市的自我救赎——以黑龙江省鹤岗市为例[J].建材与装饰,2018,2(2):181-181.
[25]段成荣,杨舸.中国流动人口状况——基于2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据的分析[J].南京人口管理干部学院学报,2009,25(4):5-9,15.
[26]段成荣,杨舸.我国流动儿童最新状况——基于2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据的分析[J].人口学刊,2008,25(6):23-31.
[27]百度慧眼.中国故乡大数据报告[EB/OL]. http://wiki.lbsyun.baidu.com/cms.
[28]杜春萌,焦利民,许刚.中国地级以上城市建成区2006—2016年人口密度变化的时空格局及驱动因素[J].热带地理,2018,38(6):791-798.
[29]殷江滨,祝明明,范虹. 2000—2010年西安市人口演变的空间差异与多中心模拟[J].陕西师范大学学报:自然科学版,2016,44(3):102-109.
[30]高珮义.城市引力场论——城市化基本原理初探[J].北京大学学报哲学社会科学版,1990,27(6):83-90.
[31]埃比尼泽·霍华德.明日的田园城市[M].商务印书馆,2011.
[32]周其仁.城乡中国:流动、集聚与机遇[J].北大商业评论,2013,7(7):50-53.
[33]参考消息.东北衰败的根本原因是什么?[EB/OL]. http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2018-01-15/doc-ifyqqciz7265623.shtml,2018-01-15.