基于Maxent生态位模型的互花米草在我国沿海的潜在分布
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摘要
以分布在我国沿海滩涂的96个互花米草分布记录点及覆盖东部沿海区域的海洋环境数据和气候环境数据为材料,利用Maxent生态位模型,研究外来物种互花米草在我国沿海的潜在分布情况.结果表明:互花米草适宜分布区占我国沿海区域的85%,其中高度适宜分布区占18%,中度适宜分布区占34%,低度适宜分布区占33%,不适宜分布区仅为15%.互花米草在我国沿海的地理分布主要受到年均最低海水温度、年均海水温度、年平均气温和1月最低气温4个环境因素的影响,而年均降水量、年均日较差、海水盐度、最高海水温度、7月最高气温及海流速度对互花米草地理分布的影响较小.互花米草高度适宜分布区的最低海水温度为0.62～24.81℃,平均海水温度为10.46～27.29℃,年均气温为9～25℃,1月最低气温为-13.5～16.7℃.互花米草地理分布概率在我国北部沿海区域达到20%以上,互花米草存在向我国北部进一步入侵的趋势,特别是在渤海湾地区,互花米草入侵潜力较大.互花米草在我国不适宜分布区主要集中在海南中部和南部海岸,以及台湾省大部分区域,依据当前我国分布记录及气候数据,这些区域互花米草入侵风险较小,但不排除未来入侵的可能性.
Maxent niche model was used to project the potential distribution of alien plant species Spartina alterniflora in China, with 96 S. alterniflora records and marine and climatic data along China coastal area. The results showed that suitable area for the distribution of S. alterniflora occupied 85% of coastal areas, with the highly suitable area, the medium, and low suitable area accounting for 18%, 34% and 33%, respectively. Only 15% of the coastal areas were regions with distribution possibility of less than 5%. Its distribution suitability was mainly related to annual lowest seawater temperature, annual mean seawater temperature, annual mean air temperature, and annual lowest temperature in January. However, the importance of annual mean precipitation, annual mean daily diurnal range, seawater salinity, annual highest seawater temperature, annual highest tempe-rature in June and current velocity was relatively small. At the highly suitable areas for S. alterni-flora, the annual lowest seawater temperature ranged from 0.62 to 24.81 ℃, the annual mean seawater temperature ranged from 10.46 to 27.29 ℃, the annual mean air temperature was between 9 to 25 ℃, and the annual lowest temperature in January was between-13.5 and 16.7 ℃. The distribution possibility of S. alterniflora in the northern coastal area was over 20%, indicating it has a great potential to invade further north in China, especially in Bohai Bay areas. According to the current distribution records and climatic data in China, the invasion risk of S. alterniflora in central and southern coasts of Hainan and most regions of Taiwan Province was low, but the possibility of future invasion can not be excluded.
Maxent niche model was used to project the potential distribution of alien plant species Spartina alterniflora in China, with 96 S. alterniflora records and marine and climatic data along China coastal area. The results showed that suitable area for the distribution of S. alterniflora occupied 85% of coastal areas, with the highly suitable area, the medium, and low suitable area accounting for 18%, 34% and 33%, respectively. Only 15% of the coastal areas were regions with distribution possibility of less than 5%. Its distribution suitability was mainly related to annual lowest seawater temperature, annual mean seawater temperature, annual mean air temperature, and annual lowest temperature in January. However, the importance of annual mean precipitation, annual mean daily diurnal range, seawater salinity, annual highest seawater temperature, annual highest tempe-rature in June and current velocity was relatively small. At the highly suitable areas for S. alterni-flora, the annual lowest seawater temperature ranged from 0.62 to 24.81 ℃, the annual mean seawater temperature ranged from 10.46 to 27.29 ℃, the annual mean air temperature was between 9 to 25 ℃, and the annual lowest temperature in January was between-13.5 and 16.7 ℃. The distribution possibility of S. alterniflora in the northern coastal area was over 20%, indicating it has a great potential to invade further north in China, especially in Bohai Bay areas. According to the current distribution records and climatic data in China, the invasion risk of S. alterniflora in central and southern coasts of Hainan and most regions of Taiwan Province was low, but the possibility of future invasion can not be excluded.
引文
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[18] Wang M (王蒙).Characterizing Bacterial Community Structure and Diversity in Rhizospheric Soils of Dominant Plants in Jiuduansha Wetlands,the Yangtze River Estuary.Shanghai:Fudan University,2006 (in Chinese)
[19] Chen Z-Y (陈中义),Li B (李博),Chen J-K (陈家宽).Ecological consequences and management of Spartina spp.invasion in coastal ecosystem.Chinese Biodiversity (生物多样性),2004,12(2):280-289 (in Chinese)
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[21] Guisan A,Zimmermann EN.Predicting habitat distribution models in ecology.Ecological Modelling,2000,135:147-186
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[25] Anderson RP,Gomez-laverd M,Peterson AT.Geographical distributions of spiny pocket.Global Ecology and Biogeography,2002,11:131-141
[26] Iulian G,Alexandru S,Stefan Z.Using maximum entrop to predict the distribution of a critically endangered reptile species (Eryx jaculus) at its northern range limit.Advances in Environmental Science,2009,1:65-71
[27] Yang J-X (杨俊仙),Wang L-H (王雷宏),Xu X-N (徐小牛).MaxEnt based geographic distribution pattern of Malus toringo.Journal of Northwest A&F University (Natural Science) (西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版),2013,41(7):172-176 (in Chinese)
[28] Yin X-J (殷晓洁),Zhou G-S (周广胜),Sui X-H (隋兴华),et al.Dominant climatic factors of Quercus mongolica geographical distribution and their thresholds.Acta Ecologica Sinica (生态学报),2013,33(1):103-109 (in Chinese)
[29] Morrison LW,Korzukhin MD,Porter SD.Predicted range expansion of the invasive fire ant,Solenopsis invicta,in the eastern United States based on the VEMAP global warming scenario.Diversity and Distributions,2005,11:199-204
[30] Cao X-F (曹向峰),Qian G-L (钱国良),Hu B-S (胡白石),et al.Prediction of potential suitable distribution area of Flaveria bidentis in China based on niche models.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报),2010,21(12):3063-3069 (in Chinese)
[31] Lei J-C (雷军成),Xu H-G (徐海根).MaxEnt-based prediction of potential distribution of Solidago canadensis in China.Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment (生态与农村环境学报),2010,26(2):137-141 (in Chinese)
[32] Yue M-F (岳茂峰),Feng L (冯莉),Tian X-S (田兴山),et al.MaxEnt-based prediction of potential distribution areas of Mimosa pigra L.Journal of Biosafety (生物安全学报),2013,22(3):173-180 (in Chinese)
[33] Zhu GP,Gao YB,Zhu L.Delimiting the coastal geographic backgound to predict potential distribution of Spartina alterniflora.Hydrobiologia,2013,717:177-187
[34] Feeley KJ,Silman MR.Keep collecting:Accurate species distribution modelling requires more collections than previously thought.Diversity and Distributions,2011,17:1132-1140
[35] Wisz MS,Hijmans RJ,Li J,et al.Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models.Diversity and Distributions,2008,14:763-773
[36] Anderson RP,Raza A.The effect of the extent of the study region on GIS models of species geographic distributions and estimates of niche evolution:Preliminary tests with montane rodents (genus Nephelomys) in Venezuela.Journal of Biogeography,2010,37:1378-1393
[37] Owens HL,Champbell LP,Dornak L,et al.Constrains on interpretation of ecological niche models by limited environmental ranges on calibration areas.Ecological Modelling,2013,263:10-18
[38] Barve NV,Barve A,Jiménez-Valverde A,et al.The crucial role of the accessible area in ecological niche modeling and species distribution modelling.Ecological Modelling,2011,222:1810-1819
[39] Zhu GP,Petersen MJ,Bu MJ.Selecting biological meaningful environmental dimensions of low discrepancy among ranges to predict potential distribution of bean plataspid invasion.PLoS One,2012,7(9):e46247
[40] Saupe E,Brave V,Myers C,et al.Variation in niche and distribution model performance:The need dor a prior assessment of key causal factors.Ecological Model-ling,2012,237-238:11-22
[41] Walther GR,Post E,Convey P,et al.Ecological responses to recent climate change.Nature,2002,416:389-395
[42] Pearson RG,Dawson TP.Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species:Are bioclimate envelope models useful?Global Ecology and Bio-geography,2003,12:361-371
[43] Zhu G-P (朱耿平),Liu G-Q (刘国卿),Bu W-J (卜文俊),et al.Ecological niche modeling and its applications in biodiversity conservation.Biodiversity Science (生物多样性),2013,21(1):90-98 (in Chinese)
[44] Zimmermann NE,Yoccoz NG,Edwards TC.Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2009,106:19723-19728
[45] Peterson AT,Nakazawa Y.Environmental data sets matter in ecological niche modelling:An example with Solenopsis invicta and Solenopsis richteri.Global Ecology and Biogeography,2008,17:135-144
[46] Hanley JA,Mcneil BJ.The meaning and use of the area under a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve.Radiology,1982,143:29-36
[47] Zhao X-J (赵相健),Zhao C-Y (赵彩云),Liu X-Y (柳晓燕),et al.Growth characteristics adaptability of Spartina alterniflora in different latitude areas along China coast.Ecological Science (生态科学),2015,34:119-128 (in Chinese)
[48] Liu WW,Maung-Douglass K,Strong DR,et al.Geographical variation in vegetative growth and sexual reproduction of the invasive Spartina alterniflora in China.Journal of Ecology,2016,104:173-181
[49] Cao H-B (曹浩冰),Cao Z-M (曹振鸣),Zhu Z-N (祝振男),et al.The expansion pattern of saltmarshes at Chongming Dongtan and its underlying mechanism.Acta Ecologica Sinica (生态学报),2014,34(14):3944-3952 (in Chinese)
[50] Song H-H (宋洪海),Liang S-Y (梁漱玉).Effect of soil condition on growth and development of Suaeda hete-roptera Kitagawa.Modern Agricultural Science and Technology (现代农业科学与技术),2010(3):290-296 (in Chinese)
[51] Thuiller W,Richardson DM,Pysek P,et al.Niche-based modeling as a tool for predicting the risk of alien plant invasions at a global scale.Global Change Bio-logy,2005,11:2234-2250
[52] Wang Z-C (王智晨),Zhang Y-M (张亦默),Pan X-Y (潘晓云),et al.Effects of winter burning and cutting on aboveground growth and reproduction of Spartina alterniflora:A field experiment at Chongming Dongtan,Shanghai.Biodiversity Science (生物多样性),2006,14(4):275-283 (in Chinese)
[53] Levine JM,Brewer JS,Bertness MD.Nutrients,competition and plant zonation in a New England salt marsh.Journal of Ecology,1998,86:285-292
[54] Williamson M.Biological Invasions.London:Chapman and Hall,1996
[2] Londdale WM.Global patterns of plant invasions and the concept of invisibility.Ecology,1999,80:1552-1536
[3] Gurevitch J,Padilla DK.Are invasive species a major cause of extinctions?Trends in Ecology and Evolution,2004,19:470-474
[4] Wang Q,An SQ,Ma ZJ,et al.Invasive Spartina alterniflora:Biology,ecology and management.Acta Phyto-taxonomica Sinica,2006,44:559-588
[5] Callaway JC,Josselyn MN.The introduction and spread of smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) in South San Francisco Bay.Estuaries,1992,15:218-226
[6] Feist BE,Simenstad CA.Expansion rates and recruitment frequency of exotic smooth cordgrass,Spartina alterniflora (Loisel),colonizing unvegetated littoral flats in Willapa Bay,Washington.Estuaries,2000,23:267-274
[7] Baumel A,Ainouche ML,Bayer RJ,et al.Genetic evidence for hybridization between the native Spartina maritima and the introduced Spartina alterniflora (Poaceae) in South-West France:Spartina×neyautii reexamined.Plant Systematics and Evolution,2003,237:87-97
[8] Campos JA,Herrera M,Biurrun I,et al.The role of alien plants in the natural coastal vegetation in central-northern Spain.Biodiversity Conservation,2004,13:2275-2293
[9] Patridge TR.Spartina in New Zealand.New Zealand Journal of Botany,1987,25:567-575
[10] Adams J,van Wyk E,Riddin T.First record of Spartina alterniflora in southern Africa indicates adaptive potential of this saline grass.Biological Invasions,2016,18:2153-2158
[11] Zhang DH,Hu YM,Liu M,et al.Introduction and spread of an exotic plant,Spartina alterniflora,along coastal marshes of China.Wetlands,2017,37:1181-1193
[12] Chung CH.Forty years of ecological engineering with Spartina plantations in China.Ecological Engineering,2006,27:49-57
[13] Wang R,Wang YZ.Invasion dynamics and potential spread of the invasive alient plant species Ageratina adenophora (Asteraceae) in China.Diversity and Distributions,2006,12:397-408
[14] Chen ZY,Li B,Zhong Y,et al.Local competitive effects of introduced Spartina alterniflora on Scirpus mariqueter at Dongtan of Chongming Island,the Yangtze River eatuary and their potential ecological consequences.Hydrobiologia,2004,528:99-106
[15] An SQ,Gu BH,Zhou CF,et al.Spartina invasion in China:Implications for invasive species management and future research.Weed Research,47:183-191
[16] Li B,Liao CH,Zhang XD,et al.Spartina alterniflora invasions in the Yangtze River estuary,China:An overview of current status and ecosystem effects.Ecological Engineering,2009,35:511-520
[17] Zhang YH,Huang GM,Wang WQ,et al.Interactions between mangroves and exotic Spartina in anthropogenically disturbed estuary in southern China.Ecology,2012,93:588-597
[18] Wang M (王蒙).Characterizing Bacterial Community Structure and Diversity in Rhizospheric Soils of Dominant Plants in Jiuduansha Wetlands,the Yangtze River Estuary.Shanghai:Fudan University,2006 (in Chinese)
[19] Chen Z-Y (陈中义),Li B (李博),Chen J-K (陈家宽).Ecological consequences and management of Spartina spp.invasion in coastal ecosystem.Chinese Biodiversity (生物多样性),2004,12(2):280-289 (in Chinese)
[20] Daehler CC,Strong DR.Status,prediction and prevention of introduced cordgrass Spartina spp.invasion in Pacific estuaries,USA.Biological Conservation,1996,78:51-58
[21] Guisan A,Zimmermann EN.Predicting habitat distribution models in ecology.Ecological Modelling,2000,135:147-186
[22] Phillips SJ,Anderson RP,Schapire RE.Maximun entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.Ecological Modelling,2006,190:231-259
[23] Wang Y-S (王运生).Application of Niche Models in the Risk Assessment of Invasive Alien Species.PhD.Thesis.Changsha:Hunan Agricultural University,2007 (in Chinese)
[24] Elith J,Geaham HC,Anderson PR.Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data.Ecography,2006,29:129-151
[25] Anderson RP,Gomez-laverd M,Peterson AT.Geographical distributions of spiny pocket.Global Ecology and Biogeography,2002,11:131-141
[26] Iulian G,Alexandru S,Stefan Z.Using maximum entrop to predict the distribution of a critically endangered reptile species (Eryx jaculus) at its northern range limit.Advances in Environmental Science,2009,1:65-71
[27] Yang J-X (杨俊仙),Wang L-H (王雷宏),Xu X-N (徐小牛).MaxEnt based geographic distribution pattern of Malus toringo.Journal of Northwest A&F University (Natural Science) (西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版),2013,41(7):172-176 (in Chinese)
[28] Yin X-J (殷晓洁),Zhou G-S (周广胜),Sui X-H (隋兴华),et al.Dominant climatic factors of Quercus mongolica geographical distribution and their thresholds.Acta Ecologica Sinica (生态学报),2013,33(1):103-109 (in Chinese)
[29] Morrison LW,Korzukhin MD,Porter SD.Predicted range expansion of the invasive fire ant,Solenopsis invicta,in the eastern United States based on the VEMAP global warming scenario.Diversity and Distributions,2005,11:199-204
[30] Cao X-F (曹向峰),Qian G-L (钱国良),Hu B-S (胡白石),et al.Prediction of potential suitable distribution area of Flaveria bidentis in China based on niche models.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报),2010,21(12):3063-3069 (in Chinese)
[31] Lei J-C (雷军成),Xu H-G (徐海根).MaxEnt-based prediction of potential distribution of Solidago canadensis in China.Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment (生态与农村环境学报),2010,26(2):137-141 (in Chinese)
[32] Yue M-F (岳茂峰),Feng L (冯莉),Tian X-S (田兴山),et al.MaxEnt-based prediction of potential distribution areas of Mimosa pigra L.Journal of Biosafety (生物安全学报),2013,22(3):173-180 (in Chinese)
[33] Zhu GP,Gao YB,Zhu L.Delimiting the coastal geographic backgound to predict potential distribution of Spartina alterniflora.Hydrobiologia,2013,717:177-187
[34] Feeley KJ,Silman MR.Keep collecting:Accurate species distribution modelling requires more collections than previously thought.Diversity and Distributions,2011,17:1132-1140
[35] Wisz MS,Hijmans RJ,Li J,et al.Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models.Diversity and Distributions,2008,14:763-773
[36] Anderson RP,Raza A.The effect of the extent of the study region on GIS models of species geographic distributions and estimates of niche evolution:Preliminary tests with montane rodents (genus Nephelomys) in Venezuela.Journal of Biogeography,2010,37:1378-1393
[37] Owens HL,Champbell LP,Dornak L,et al.Constrains on interpretation of ecological niche models by limited environmental ranges on calibration areas.Ecological Modelling,2013,263:10-18
[38] Barve NV,Barve A,Jiménez-Valverde A,et al.The crucial role of the accessible area in ecological niche modeling and species distribution modelling.Ecological Modelling,2011,222:1810-1819
[39] Zhu GP,Petersen MJ,Bu MJ.Selecting biological meaningful environmental dimensions of low discrepancy among ranges to predict potential distribution of bean plataspid invasion.PLoS One,2012,7(9):e46247
[40] Saupe E,Brave V,Myers C,et al.Variation in niche and distribution model performance:The need dor a prior assessment of key causal factors.Ecological Model-ling,2012,237-238:11-22
[41] Walther GR,Post E,Convey P,et al.Ecological responses to recent climate change.Nature,2002,416:389-395
[42] Pearson RG,Dawson TP.Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species:Are bioclimate envelope models useful?Global Ecology and Bio-geography,2003,12:361-371
[43] Zhu G-P (朱耿平),Liu G-Q (刘国卿),Bu W-J (卜文俊),et al.Ecological niche modeling and its applications in biodiversity conservation.Biodiversity Science (生物多样性),2013,21(1):90-98 (in Chinese)
[44] Zimmermann NE,Yoccoz NG,Edwards TC.Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2009,106:19723-19728
[45] Peterson AT,Nakazawa Y.Environmental data sets matter in ecological niche modelling:An example with Solenopsis invicta and Solenopsis richteri.Global Ecology and Biogeography,2008,17:135-144
[46] Hanley JA,Mcneil BJ.The meaning and use of the area under a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve.Radiology,1982,143:29-36
[47] Zhao X-J (赵相健),Zhao C-Y (赵彩云),Liu X-Y (柳晓燕),et al.Growth characteristics adaptability of Spartina alterniflora in different latitude areas along China coast.Ecological Science (生态科学),2015,34:119-128 (in Chinese)
[48] Liu WW,Maung-Douglass K,Strong DR,et al.Geographical variation in vegetative growth and sexual reproduction of the invasive Spartina alterniflora in China.Journal of Ecology,2016,104:173-181
[49] Cao H-B (曹浩冰),Cao Z-M (曹振鸣),Zhu Z-N (祝振男),et al.The expansion pattern of saltmarshes at Chongming Dongtan and its underlying mechanism.Acta Ecologica Sinica (生态学报),2014,34(14):3944-3952 (in Chinese)
[50] Song H-H (宋洪海),Liang S-Y (梁漱玉).Effect of soil condition on growth and development of Suaeda hete-roptera Kitagawa.Modern Agricultural Science and Technology (现代农业科学与技术),2010(3):290-296 (in Chinese)
[51] Thuiller W,Richardson DM,Pysek P,et al.Niche-based modeling as a tool for predicting the risk of alien plant invasions at a global scale.Global Change Bio-logy,2005,11:2234-2250
[52] Wang Z-C (王智晨),Zhang Y-M (张亦默),Pan X-Y (潘晓云),et al.Effects of winter burning and cutting on aboveground growth and reproduction of Spartina alterniflora:A field experiment at Chongming Dongtan,Shanghai.Biodiversity Science (生物多样性),2006,14(4):275-283 (in Chinese)
[53] Levine JM,Brewer JS,Bertness MD.Nutrients,competition and plant zonation in a New England salt marsh.Journal of Ecology,1998,86:285-292
[54] Williamson M.Biological Invasions.London:Chapman and Hall,1996