基于多尺度空间分辨率的空间负荷预测误差评价方法
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摘要
针对如何评估空间负荷预测(spatial load forecasting,SLF)中空间误差的难题,提出了基于多尺度空间分辨率的空间负荷预测误差评价方法。该方法考虑到SLF的局部预测误差会对整个预测区域产生影响,从如何计算局部预测误差给其他位置预测值带来影响的问题入手,将极端场景作为边界条件分析SLF结果的误差地图,揭示了在不同空间分辨率下,对相同的空间预测误差的感知程度多数情况并不一样,甚至还可能完全相反的演变规律,建立了针对既有网架结构、供电容量和规划目标年负荷水平的SLF误差评价机制,给出了SLF误差评价指标。运用该方法对东北某市的一个行政区进行空间负荷预测的工程实例表明,所提出的SLF误差评价方法是行之有效的。
Faced with the difficult problem how to evaluate spatial error in spatial load forecasting(SLF), the error evaluation method of SLF based on the multi-scale spatial resolution was proposed. Considering local forecasting error impacts on the SLF error of the whole, how to calculate local forecasting error impact on the predicted load value of another location was studied firstly. The extreme scenarios were used as boundary conditions to analyze the error map of SLF results. Under different spatial resolutions, it is brought to light that the degree of perception is different for the same spatial error and the evolution regular changes to be even completely opposite. Aiming at the structure and the supply capacity of existing power grid, and the load level of planning target-year, spatial error evaluation mechanism was established. At the same time, the evaluation index for SLF error was provided. The method of spatial load forecasting error evaluation based on the multi-scale spatial resolution was applied to spatial load forecasting in an administrative region of a northeast city, and is proved to be effective.
Faced with the difficult problem how to evaluate spatial error in spatial load forecasting(SLF), the error evaluation method of SLF based on the multi-scale spatial resolution was proposed. Considering local forecasting error impacts on the SLF error of the whole, how to calculate local forecasting error impact on the predicted load value of another location was studied firstly. The extreme scenarios were used as boundary conditions to analyze the error map of SLF results. Under different spatial resolutions, it is brought to light that the degree of perception is different for the same spatial error and the evolution regular changes to be even completely opposite. Aiming at the structure and the supply capacity of existing power grid, and the load level of planning target-year, spatial error evaluation mechanism was established. At the same time, the evaluation index for SLF error was provided. The method of spatial load forecasting error evaluation based on the multi-scale spatial resolution was applied to spatial load forecasting in an administrative region of a northeast city, and is proved to be effective.
引文
[1]肖白,周潮,穆钢.空间电力负荷预测方法综述与展望[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(25):78-92.Xiao Bai,Zhou Chao,Mu Gang.Review and prospect of the spatial load forecasting methods[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(25):78-92(in Chinese).
[2]Willis H L.Spatial electric load forecasting[M].2nd Ed.New York:Marcel Dekker,2002:231-258.
[3]Willis H L.Load forecasting for distribution planningerror and impact on design[J].IEEE Power Apparatus and Systems,1983,PER-3(3):35-36.
[4]Willis H L,Engel M V,Buri M J.Spatial load forecasting[J].IEEE Computer Applications in Power,1995,8(2):40-43.
[5]Willis H L,Northcote-Green J E D.Spatial electric load forecasting:a tutorial review[J].Proceedings of the IEEE,1983,71(2):232-253.
[6]Vieira D A G,Cabrall M M A,Mnezes T V,et al.Measuring the spatial error in load forecasting for electrical distribution planning as a problem of transporting the surplus to the in-deficit locations[C]//2012 11th International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications.Boca Raton,FL:IEEE,2012:475-480.
[7]康重庆,夏清,张伯明.电力系统负荷预测研究综述与发展方向的探讨[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(17):1-11.Kang Chongqing,Xia Qing,Zhang Boming.Review of power system load forecasting and its development[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2004,28(17):1-11(in Chinese).
[8]刘自发,庞铖铖,王泽黎,等.基于云理论和元胞自动机理论的城市配电网空间负荷预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(10):98-105.Liu Zifa,Pang Chengcheng,Wang Zeli,et al.Spatial load forecasting for distribution network based on cloud theory and cellular automata[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(10):98-105(in Chinese).
[9]陶文斌,张粒子,潘弘,等.基于双层贝叶斯分类的空间负荷预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2007,27(7):13-17.Tao Wenbin,Zhang Lizi,Pan Hong,et al.Spatial electric load forecasting based on double-level Bayesian classification[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2007,27(7):13-17(in Chinese).
[10]余贻鑫,张崇见,张弘鹏.空间电力负荷预测小区用地分析(一):模糊推理新方法和小区用地分析原理[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(6):23-26.Yu Yixin,Zhang Chongjian,Zhang Hongpeng.Small area land-use analysis in fuzzy spatial load forecasting part one principle[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2001,25(6):23-26(in Chinese).
[11]余贻鑫,张崇见,张弘鹏.空间电力负荷预测小区用地分析(二):模糊推理在小区用地分析中的应用[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(7):28-31.Yu Yixin,Zhang Chongjian,Zhang Hongpeng.Small area land-use analysis in fuzzy spatial load forecasting part two application[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2001,25(7):28-31(in Chinese).
[12]杨薛明,苑津莎,王剑锋,等.基于云理论的配电网空间负荷预测方法研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2006,26(6):30-36.Yang Xueming,Yuan Jinsha,Wang Jianfeng,et al.A new spatial forecasting method for distribution network based on cloud theory[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2006,26(6):30-36(in Chinese).
[13]杨丽徙,王金凤,陈根永,等.基于元胞自动机理论的电力负荷空间分布预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2007,27(4):15-20.Yang Lixi,Wang Jinfeng,Chen Genyong,et al.Load spatial distribution forecasting model on cellular automata theory[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2007,27(4):15-20(in Chinese).
[14]肖白,杨修宇,穆钢,等.基于元胞历史负荷数据的负荷密度指标法[J].电网技术,2014,38(4):1014-1019.Xiao Bai,Yang Xiuyu,Mu Gang,et al.A load density index method based on the historical data of cell land[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(4):1014-1019(in Chinese).
[15]周湶,孙威,任海军,等.基于最小二乘支持向量机和负荷密度指标法的配电网空间负荷预测[J].电网技术,2011,35(1):66-71.Zhou Quan,Sun Wei,Ren Haijun,et al.Spatial load forecasting of distribution network based on least squares support vector machine and load density index system[J].Power System Technology,2011,35(1):66-71(in Chinese).
[16]周湶,李健,孙才新,等.基于粗糙集和元胞自动机的配电网空间负荷预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2008,28(25):67-73.Zhou Quan,Li Jian,Sun Caixin,et al.Spatial load forecasting for distribution networks based on rough sets and cellular automata[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2008,28(25):67-73(in Chinese).
[17]肖白,黎平.最佳电力负荷空间分辨率的获取方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2010,30(34):50-56.Xiao Bai,Li Ping.Method for acquiring optimum spatial resolution of electric load[J].Proceeding of the CSEE,2010,30(34):50-56(in Chinese).
[18]王天华,范明天,王平洋,等.基于地理信息系统平台的配电网空间负荷预测[J].电网技术,1999,23(5):42-47.Wang Tianhua,Fan Mingtian,Wang Pingyang,et al.Spatial load forecasting for distribution planning based on GIS platform[J].Power System Technology,1999,23(5):42-47(in Chinese).
[19]肖白,穆钢,杨右虹,等.基于GIS的空间电力负荷预测平台的研究与开发[J].中国电力,2010,43(10):53-57.Xiao Bai,Mu Gang,Yang Youhong,et al.R&D of spatial load forecasting platform based on GIS[J].Electric Power,2010,43(10):53-57(in Chinese).
[20]肖白,徐潇,穆钢,等.空间负荷预测中确定元胞负荷最大值的概率谱方法[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(21):47-52.Xiao Bai,Xu Xiao,Mu Gang,et al.A probability spectrum method for ascertaining maximal value of cellular load in spatial load forecasting[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(21):47-52(in Chinese).
[2]Willis H L.Spatial electric load forecasting[M].2nd Ed.New York:Marcel Dekker,2002:231-258.
[3]Willis H L.Load forecasting for distribution planningerror and impact on design[J].IEEE Power Apparatus and Systems,1983,PER-3(3):35-36.
[4]Willis H L,Engel M V,Buri M J.Spatial load forecasting[J].IEEE Computer Applications in Power,1995,8(2):40-43.
[5]Willis H L,Northcote-Green J E D.Spatial electric load forecasting:a tutorial review[J].Proceedings of the IEEE,1983,71(2):232-253.
[6]Vieira D A G,Cabrall M M A,Mnezes T V,et al.Measuring the spatial error in load forecasting for electrical distribution planning as a problem of transporting the surplus to the in-deficit locations[C]//2012 11th International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications.Boca Raton,FL:IEEE,2012:475-480.
[7]康重庆,夏清,张伯明.电力系统负荷预测研究综述与发展方向的探讨[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(17):1-11.Kang Chongqing,Xia Qing,Zhang Boming.Review of power system load forecasting and its development[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2004,28(17):1-11(in Chinese).
[8]刘自发,庞铖铖,王泽黎,等.基于云理论和元胞自动机理论的城市配电网空间负荷预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(10):98-105.Liu Zifa,Pang Chengcheng,Wang Zeli,et al.Spatial load forecasting for distribution network based on cloud theory and cellular automata[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(10):98-105(in Chinese).
[9]陶文斌,张粒子,潘弘,等.基于双层贝叶斯分类的空间负荷预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2007,27(7):13-17.Tao Wenbin,Zhang Lizi,Pan Hong,et al.Spatial electric load forecasting based on double-level Bayesian classification[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2007,27(7):13-17(in Chinese).
[10]余贻鑫,张崇见,张弘鹏.空间电力负荷预测小区用地分析(一):模糊推理新方法和小区用地分析原理[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(6):23-26.Yu Yixin,Zhang Chongjian,Zhang Hongpeng.Small area land-use analysis in fuzzy spatial load forecasting part one principle[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2001,25(6):23-26(in Chinese).
[11]余贻鑫,张崇见,张弘鹏.空间电力负荷预测小区用地分析(二):模糊推理在小区用地分析中的应用[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(7):28-31.Yu Yixin,Zhang Chongjian,Zhang Hongpeng.Small area land-use analysis in fuzzy spatial load forecasting part two application[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2001,25(7):28-31(in Chinese).
[12]杨薛明,苑津莎,王剑锋,等.基于云理论的配电网空间负荷预测方法研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2006,26(6):30-36.Yang Xueming,Yuan Jinsha,Wang Jianfeng,et al.A new spatial forecasting method for distribution network based on cloud theory[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2006,26(6):30-36(in Chinese).
[13]杨丽徙,王金凤,陈根永,等.基于元胞自动机理论的电力负荷空间分布预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2007,27(4):15-20.Yang Lixi,Wang Jinfeng,Chen Genyong,et al.Load spatial distribution forecasting model on cellular automata theory[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2007,27(4):15-20(in Chinese).
[14]肖白,杨修宇,穆钢,等.基于元胞历史负荷数据的负荷密度指标法[J].电网技术,2014,38(4):1014-1019.Xiao Bai,Yang Xiuyu,Mu Gang,et al.A load density index method based on the historical data of cell land[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(4):1014-1019(in Chinese).
[15]周湶,孙威,任海军,等.基于最小二乘支持向量机和负荷密度指标法的配电网空间负荷预测[J].电网技术,2011,35(1):66-71.Zhou Quan,Sun Wei,Ren Haijun,et al.Spatial load forecasting of distribution network based on least squares support vector machine and load density index system[J].Power System Technology,2011,35(1):66-71(in Chinese).
[16]周湶,李健,孙才新,等.基于粗糙集和元胞自动机的配电网空间负荷预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2008,28(25):67-73.Zhou Quan,Li Jian,Sun Caixin,et al.Spatial load forecasting for distribution networks based on rough sets and cellular automata[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2008,28(25):67-73(in Chinese).
[17]肖白,黎平.最佳电力负荷空间分辨率的获取方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2010,30(34):50-56.Xiao Bai,Li Ping.Method for acquiring optimum spatial resolution of electric load[J].Proceeding of the CSEE,2010,30(34):50-56(in Chinese).
[18]王天华,范明天,王平洋,等.基于地理信息系统平台的配电网空间负荷预测[J].电网技术,1999,23(5):42-47.Wang Tianhua,Fan Mingtian,Wang Pingyang,et al.Spatial load forecasting for distribution planning based on GIS platform[J].Power System Technology,1999,23(5):42-47(in Chinese).
[19]肖白,穆钢,杨右虹,等.基于GIS的空间电力负荷预测平台的研究与开发[J].中国电力,2010,43(10):53-57.Xiao Bai,Mu Gang,Yang Youhong,et al.R&D of spatial load forecasting platform based on GIS[J].Electric Power,2010,43(10):53-57(in Chinese).
[20]肖白,徐潇,穆钢,等.空间负荷预测中确定元胞负荷最大值的概率谱方法[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(21):47-52.Xiao Bai,Xu Xiao,Mu Gang,et al.A probability spectrum method for ascertaining maximal value of cellular load in spatial load forecasting[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(21):47-52(in Chinese).