进出口贸易、经济增长对碳排放的影响
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摘要
利用1980～2017年的年度数据,研究河南省进出口贸易、经济增长对碳排放的影响.结果表明,进出口贸易、经济增长和碳排放之间存在长期均衡的关系;进出口贸易对河南省碳排放有着明显的抑制作用,进出口贸易额每增加1%,碳排放量减少0.25%,河南省不属于转移碳排放的城市之一;河南省不存在对碳排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线,碳排放和人均GDP之间存在U型曲线,人均GDP的拐点在2008年;根据脉冲响应函数来看,碳排放自身的影响是先升后降的,以第2期为拐点,进出口贸易和经济增长的影响在初期逐渐变大,达到某一时点后,会固定在某一水平.
Using the annual data from 1980 to 2017, this study examines the impact of import and export trade and economic growth on carbon emissions in Henan Province. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between import and export trade, economic growth, and the carbon emissions. The import and export trade has a significant inhibitory effect on the carbon emissions in Henan province. Every 1% increase in the import and export trade will decrease the carbon emissions by 0.25%. There is not a environmental Kuznet curve for carbon emissions in Henan province. But there is a U-shaped curve between carbon emissions and per capita GDP, and the inflection point of per capita GDP happened in 2008. According to the impulse response function, the impact of carbon emission itself first rises and then falls. With the second phase as the inflection point, the impact of import and export trade and economic growth gradually increases in the initial stage, and after reaching a certain point, it will be fixed at a certain level.
Using the annual data from 1980 to 2017, this study examines the impact of import and export trade and economic growth on carbon emissions in Henan Province. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between import and export trade, economic growth, and the carbon emissions. The import and export trade has a significant inhibitory effect on the carbon emissions in Henan province. Every 1% increase in the import and export trade will decrease the carbon emissions by 0.25%. There is not a environmental Kuznet curve for carbon emissions in Henan province. But there is a U-shaped curve between carbon emissions and per capita GDP, and the inflection point of per capita GDP happened in 2008. According to the impulse response function, the impact of carbon emission itself first rises and then falls. With the second phase as the inflection point, the impact of import and export trade and economic growth gradually increases in the initial stage, and after reaching a certain point, it will be fixed at a certain level.
引文
[1] 吴海江,何凌霄,张忠根.进出口增长与净出口隐含碳减排的协同研究——基于浙江省数据的分析[J].国际贸易问题,2013(7):70-81.
[2] 胡剑波,郭风.中国进出口产品部门隐含碳排放测算——基于2002-2012年非竞争型投入产出数据的分析[J].商业研究,2017(5):49-57.
[3] 朱德进,杜克锐.对外贸易、经济增长与中国二氧化碳排放效率[J].山西财经大学学报,2013,35(5):1-11.
[4] 王翚,郑美玲.海南省进出口贸易对碳排放量的影响及其原因分解[J].中国商论,2017(26):70-74.
[5] 郑长德,刘帅.基于空间计量经济学的碳排放与经济增长分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(5):80-86.
[6] 刘竹,耿涌,薛冰,付加锋,唐笑飞.中国低碳试点省份经济增长与碳排放关系研究[J].资源科学,2011,33(4):620-625.
[7] 施锦芳,吴学艳.中日经济增长与碳排放关系比较——基于EKC曲线理论的实证分析[J].现代日本经济,2017(1):81-94.
[8] 赵爱文,李东.中国碳排放与经济增长的协整与因果关系分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2011,20(11):1297-1303.
[9] 李春花,曹达镐.对外贸易和经济增长与碳排放关系研究——基于天津市实证分析[J].生态经济,2014,30(4):37-41.
[10] 郝宇,刘一鸣.对外经济贸易对中国碳排放的影响:基于省级面板数据的实证分析[J].中国环境管理,2015,7(4):85-93.
[2] 胡剑波,郭风.中国进出口产品部门隐含碳排放测算——基于2002-2012年非竞争型投入产出数据的分析[J].商业研究,2017(5):49-57.
[3] 朱德进,杜克锐.对外贸易、经济增长与中国二氧化碳排放效率[J].山西财经大学学报,2013,35(5):1-11.
[4] 王翚,郑美玲.海南省进出口贸易对碳排放量的影响及其原因分解[J].中国商论,2017(26):70-74.
[5] 郑长德,刘帅.基于空间计量经济学的碳排放与经济增长分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(5):80-86.
[6] 刘竹,耿涌,薛冰,付加锋,唐笑飞.中国低碳试点省份经济增长与碳排放关系研究[J].资源科学,2011,33(4):620-625.
[7] 施锦芳,吴学艳.中日经济增长与碳排放关系比较——基于EKC曲线理论的实证分析[J].现代日本经济,2017(1):81-94.
[8] 赵爱文,李东.中国碳排放与经济增长的协整与因果关系分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2011,20(11):1297-1303.
[9] 李春花,曹达镐.对外贸易和经济增长与碳排放关系研究——基于天津市实证分析[J].生态经济,2014,30(4):37-41.
[10] 郝宇,刘一鸣.对外经济贸易对中国碳排放的影响:基于省级面板数据的实证分析[J].中国环境管理,2015,7(4):85-93.