农户分化的演化逻辑、历史演变与未来展望
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摘要
基于农户分化的演化逻辑以及农业部全国农村固定观察点的微观农户数据,对当前农户分化状况进行了分析,并对农户分化的未来走向进行了展望。研究表明,农户分化的演化逻辑是由制度政策放活和农业转型发展驱动两大变异因素所诱导,并在演化历程中通过影响变异因素而实现进一步演化发展。其中,制度政策的放活主要体现在劳动力要素空间移动由"严格控制"转变为"规范引导"和"服务保障",再转变为"带动提升";农业转型发展的驱动主要表现为农业资本有机构成提高的"涓滴效应",以及城镇化发展与农业产业内部结构变化、农村就业结构变化的"一拉两推"。农业部全国农村固定观察点的数据显示,当前农户分化态势明显,纯农户比例不断下降而非农户的比例不断上升。未来兼业农户将是农户的主流类型,纯农户比例进一步下降且种粮纯农户的经营规模将会逐步扩大,非农户更倾向于选择退出农业生产。
This paper analyzes the evolution logic of rural-household differentiation and the current situation of rural-household differentiation based on the micro-level data of the National Fixed Point Survey of the Ministry of Agriculture, and looks forward to the future trend of rural-household differentiation. The conclusion of this study shows that the rural-household differentiation can be induced by the result of the liberalization of institutional policies and the development of agricultural transformation. In the course of evolution, further evolution and development can be achieved by influencing variation factors. The liberalization of institutional policy can be mainly reflected in the transformation of the spatial movement of labor force elements from "strict control" to "normative guidance, service guarantee" and then to "promoting".The driving force of agricultural transformation development can be mainly manifested in the trickle-down effect of improving the organic composition of agricultural capital, "One pull, two push" for the development of urbanization, the change of internal structure of agricultural industry, and the change of employment structure in rural areas.The data from the National Fixed Point Survey of the Ministry of Agriculture shows that the current situation of rural-household differentiationis obvious, and the proportion of pure farmers is declining, while the proportion of non-farmers is rising. In the future, part-time farmers will be the mainstream type of rural-household, the proportion of pure farmers will further decline and the scale of operation of pure farmers will gradually expand, non-farmers are more inclined to opt out of agricultural production.
This paper analyzes the evolution logic of rural-household differentiation and the current situation of rural-household differentiation based on the micro-level data of the National Fixed Point Survey of the Ministry of Agriculture, and looks forward to the future trend of rural-household differentiation. The conclusion of this study shows that the rural-household differentiation can be induced by the result of the liberalization of institutional policies and the development of agricultural transformation. In the course of evolution, further evolution and development can be achieved by influencing variation factors. The liberalization of institutional policy can be mainly reflected in the transformation of the spatial movement of labor force elements from "strict control" to "normative guidance, service guarantee" and then to "promoting".The driving force of agricultural transformation development can be mainly manifested in the trickle-down effect of improving the organic composition of agricultural capital, "One pull, two push" for the development of urbanization, the change of internal structure of agricultural industry, and the change of employment structure in rural areas.The data from the National Fixed Point Survey of the Ministry of Agriculture shows that the current situation of rural-household differentiationis obvious, and the proportion of pure farmers is declining, while the proportion of non-farmers is rising. In the future, part-time farmers will be the mainstream type of rural-household, the proportion of pure farmers will further decline and the scale of operation of pure farmers will gradually expand, non-farmers are more inclined to opt out of agricultural production.
引文
[1]苑鹏,丁忠兵.小农户与现代农业发展的衔接模式:重庆梁平例证[J].改革,2018(6):106-114.
[2]李宪宝,高强.行为逻辑、分化结果与发展前景---对1978年以来我国农户分化行为的考察[J].农业经济问题,2013(2):56-65.
[3]赵佳,姜长云.兼业小农抑或家庭农场---中国农业家庭经营组织变迁的路径选择[J].农业经济问题,2015(3):11-18.
[4]张琛,孔祥智.农民专业合作社成长演化机制分析---基于组织生态学视角[J].中国农村观察,2018(3):128-144.
[5]孔祥智,张琛,张效榕.要素禀赋变化与农业资本有机构成提升---对1978年以来中国农业发展路径的解释[J].管理世界,2018(10):147-160.
[6]毛飞,孔祥智.中国农业现代化总体态势和未来取向[J].改革,2012(10):9-21.
[7]MARX K.Capital,Volume I:A critique o political economy[M].New York:Dover Publications,Inc,2011.
[8]MESNARD A.Temporary migration and capital market imperfections[J].Oxford Economic Papers,2004,56(2):242-262.
[9]许召元.“刘易斯转折点”的学术论争及劳动力转移新特征[J].改革,2014(12):12-21.
[10]张琛,周振,孔祥智.撤县(市)设区与农村劳动力转移---来自江苏省的经验证据[J].农业技术经济,2017(7):18-30.
[11]中共中央政策研究室,农业部农村固定观察点办公室.农户收入结构变动分析[J].中国农村观察,1997(6):2-7.
[12]苏群,汪霏菲,陈杰.农户分化与土地流转行为[J].资源科学,2016(3):377-386.
[13]刘同山,孔祥智.参与意愿、实现机制与新型城镇化进程的农地退出[J].改革,2016(6):79-89.
(1)“一兼农户”是指以农业为主兼营非农业户。
(2)“二兼农户”是指以非农业为主兼营农业户。
(1)资料来源:http:/difang.gmw.cn/ha/2017-05/25/content_24598601.htm.
(1)已有研究农户分化的比例数据来自全国农村经济社会典型调查数据汇编(1986~1999年)和全国农村固定观察点调查数据汇编(2000~2009年)中的第四部分关于全国农区调查村的数据统计。
[2]李宪宝,高强.行为逻辑、分化结果与发展前景---对1978年以来我国农户分化行为的考察[J].农业经济问题,2013(2):56-65.
[3]赵佳,姜长云.兼业小农抑或家庭农场---中国农业家庭经营组织变迁的路径选择[J].农业经济问题,2015(3):11-18.
[4]张琛,孔祥智.农民专业合作社成长演化机制分析---基于组织生态学视角[J].中国农村观察,2018(3):128-144.
[5]孔祥智,张琛,张效榕.要素禀赋变化与农业资本有机构成提升---对1978年以来中国农业发展路径的解释[J].管理世界,2018(10):147-160.
[6]毛飞,孔祥智.中国农业现代化总体态势和未来取向[J].改革,2012(10):9-21.
[7]MARX K.Capital,Volume I:A critique o political economy[M].New York:Dover Publications,Inc,2011.
[8]MESNARD A.Temporary migration and capital market imperfections[J].Oxford Economic Papers,2004,56(2):242-262.
[9]许召元.“刘易斯转折点”的学术论争及劳动力转移新特征[J].改革,2014(12):12-21.
[10]张琛,周振,孔祥智.撤县(市)设区与农村劳动力转移---来自江苏省的经验证据[J].农业技术经济,2017(7):18-30.
[11]中共中央政策研究室,农业部农村固定观察点办公室.农户收入结构变动分析[J].中国农村观察,1997(6):2-7.
[12]苏群,汪霏菲,陈杰.农户分化与土地流转行为[J].资源科学,2016(3):377-386.
[13]刘同山,孔祥智.参与意愿、实现机制与新型城镇化进程的农地退出[J].改革,2016(6):79-89.
(1)“一兼农户”是指以农业为主兼营非农业户。
(2)“二兼农户”是指以非农业为主兼营农业户。
(1)资料来源:http:/difang.gmw.cn/ha/2017-05/25/content_24598601.htm.
(1)已有研究农户分化的比例数据来自全国农村经济社会典型调查数据汇编(1986~1999年)和全国农村固定观察点调查数据汇编(2000~2009年)中的第四部分关于全国农区调查村的数据统计。