面向关系结构的水资源集对分析研究进展
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摘要
水资源-经济社会-生态环境复杂系统的智能分析是水利科学发展和经济社会发展的重要研究,面向关系结构的集对分析从确定性不确定性的联系和转换的角度提供了一种全面、细致、动态分析该复杂系统的基本途径,对定量处理水资源复杂系统确定性不确定性问题具有重要意义。基于文献计量方法分析指出水资源集对分析研究正发展为一个新兴领域,主要研究成果集中于水利工程、土木工程和资源科学领域,研究热点主要有集对分析中的联系度和联系数方法、水资源分析预测与评价方法及其在水资源承载力、水资源可持续利用、水安全、水资源-经济社会协调发展中的应用。基于上述研究热点,在阐述水资源集对分析的关系结构特征基础上,重点综述了水资源集对关系结构分析、水资源集对预测、水资源集对评价、水资源集对决策调控4个方向的研究进展,并展望了水资源集对分析研究的未来发展趋势,以期进一步推动水资源集对分析的发展,为水资源复杂系统分析管控提供重要理论支撑。
Intelligent analysis of complex system of water resources-social economy-ecological environment is an important research frontier in the progress of hydro science and socioeconomic development. From theperspective of connection and transformation between certainty and uncertainty, relation structure-orientedset pair analysis provides a basic approach for overall, detailed and dynamic analysis of water resourcescomplex system. That is of great significance to quantitatively deal with the certain and uncertain problemsin water resources complex system. Based on the connotation of relation structure characteristics of set pairanalysis, this paper pointed out that the set pair analysis in water resources was a developing researchfield according to bibliometric analysis,which mainly focused on water conservancy project,civil engineer?ing and resources science. Furthermore,the main hotspots were the determination methods of connection de?gree and connection number in set pair analysis,the prediction and evaluation methods for water resourcesanalysis,and their applications in carrying,utilization and security of water resources,also the coordinateddevelopment between water resources and economic society. And then, the research progresses of relationstructure of set pair analysis in water resources,set pair prediction,set pair evaluation,and set pair deci?sion-making and control in water resources were summarized. Moreover,the corresponding future develop?ment trends were expatiated. This study can promote the development of set pair analysis in water resourc?es,and also can provide an important theoretical support for the analysis and management of water resources complex system.
Intelligent analysis of complex system of water resources-social economy-ecological environment is an important research frontier in the progress of hydro science and socioeconomic development. From theperspective of connection and transformation between certainty and uncertainty, relation structure-orientedset pair analysis provides a basic approach for overall, detailed and dynamic analysis of water resourcescomplex system. That is of great significance to quantitatively deal with the certain and uncertain problemsin water resources complex system. Based on the connotation of relation structure characteristics of set pairanalysis, this paper pointed out that the set pair analysis in water resources was a developing researchfield according to bibliometric analysis,which mainly focused on water conservancy project,civil engineer?ing and resources science. Furthermore,the main hotspots were the determination methods of connection de?gree and connection number in set pair analysis,the prediction and evaluation methods for water resourcesanalysis,and their applications in carrying,utilization and security of water resources,also the coordinateddevelopment between water resources and economic society. And then, the research progresses of relationstructure of set pair analysis in water resources,set pair prediction,set pair evaluation,and set pair deci?sion-making and control in water resources were summarized. Moreover,the corresponding future develop?ment trends were expatiated. This study can promote the development of set pair analysis in water resourc?es,and also can provide an important theoretical support for the analysis and management of water resources complex system.
引文
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[15]赵吴静,吴开亚,金菊良.防洪工程安全评价集对分析—可变模糊集模型[J].水电能源科学,2007,25(2):5-7,13.
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[20]徐源蔚,李祚泳,汪嘉杨.基于集对分析的相似模型在地下水位预测中的应用[J].水文,2015,35(6):6-10.
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[22] JIN Juliang,WANG Wensheng,WU Chengguo,et al. A hybrid model based on set pair analysis and NNB for an?nual runoff prediction[C]//Hydrological Modelling and Integrated Water Resources Management in UngaugedMountainous Watersheds. IAHS Publ.,2009.
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[24]吴开亚,金菊良,王玲杰,等.集对分析聚类预测方法在区域生态足迹趋势预测中的应用[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2008,33(9):973-977.
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[26]金菊良,魏一鸣,王文圣.基于集对分析的水资源相似预测模型[J].水力发电学报,2009,28(1):72-77.
[27]蒋尚明,金菊良,袁先江,等.基于近邻估计的年径流预测动态联系数回归模型[J].水利水电技术,2013,44(7):5-9.
[28] FENG L H,SANG G S,HONG W H. Statistical prediction of changes in water resources trends based on set pairanalysis[J]. Water Resources Management,2014,28(6):1703-1711.
[29]周戎星,潘争伟,金菊良,等.集对分析相似预测在用水量预测中的应用[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(6):67-71.
[30]李辉,卞锦宇,周婷,等.基于联系数的区域水资源承载力诊断指标组合预测研究[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2018,39(3):18-23.
[31]金菊良,吴开亚,魏一鸣.基于联系数的流域水安全评价模型[J].水利学报,2008,39(4):401-409.
[32]吴开亚,金菊良,魏一鸣,等.基于指标体系的流域水安全诊断评价模型[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2008,47(4):105-113.
[33] WANG Wensheng,JIN Juliang,DING Jing,et al. A new approach to water resources system assessment——setpair analysis method[J]. Science in China,Series E:Technological Sciences,2009,52(10):3017-302.
[34]汪哲荪,金菊良,魏一鸣,等.三角模糊数随机模拟的防洪工程联系数风险评价模型[J].水利学报,2010,41(10):1173-1178.
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[36] ZOU Qiang,ZHOU Jianzhong,ZHOU Chao,et al. Comprehensive flood risk assessment based on set pair analy?sis-variable fuzzy sets model and fuzzy AHP[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2013,27(2):525-546.
[37] YANG F G,LIANG Y,SINGH V P. Debris flow hazard assessment using set pair analysis models:take Beich?uan County as an example[J]. Journal of Mountain Science,2014,11(4):1015-1022.
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