出口商品结构对碳生产率的门槛效应研究
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摘要
面对全球气候变暖和国际碳减排压力增大,发展低碳经济成为各国共同关心的话题,发展低碳经济的核心是提高衡量单位碳排放经济效益的碳生产率。本文基于36个国家1996—2014年的年度数据,采用面板门槛模型,分别以经济发展水平和技术水平为门槛变量研究出口商品结构对碳生产率的门槛效应,并考察如何利用这种效应提高碳生产率。结果表明,出口商品结构对碳生产率始终产生抑制作用,经济发展和技术处于高水平时出口商品结构对碳生产率抑制作用均增强。因此,只有推动经济发展和技术达到一定水平才能充分发挥出口商品结构调整对碳生产率的提高作用。此外,出口商品结构对碳生产率的影响具有显著区域差异。针对本文的研究结论,提出了相关建议。
In the face of global warming and the increasing pressure of international carbon emission reduction, the development of a low-carbon economy has become a common concern in all countries. The core of the development of a low-carbon economy is to improve the carbon productivity which can measure the economic benefits of carbon emissions per unit. Therefore, the identification of the factors of carbon productivity will provide an empirical evidence for increasing carbon productivity in various countries and exhibit a reference for reducing carbon emission intensity in China. Based on the 1996-2014 annual data of 36 countries, this study adopted a panel threshold model to study the threshold of merchandise exports structure for carbon productivity by using the economic development level and technology level threshold variables and learn how to use this influence to improve carbon productivity. The results demonstrate that the merchandise export structure has always been an inhibitory effect on carbon productivity, which is strong when the economic and technology development is in a relatively high level. We assume that merchandise export structure adjustment can improve carbon productivity when economic development and technology is in a proper level. In addition, the impact of merchandise export structure on carbon productivity has a significant regional difference. Based on the conclusion of this study, relevant suggestions are put forward. It is essential to optimize the structure of export commodities and improve energy efficiency from different perspectives of variable threshold system. It is also needed to solve the contradiction between carbon productivity increase and carbon emission increase, maintain appropriate economic growth rates, absorb advanced technology spillover, and improve the technical level.
In the face of global warming and the increasing pressure of international carbon emission reduction, the development of a low-carbon economy has become a common concern in all countries. The core of the development of a low-carbon economy is to improve the carbon productivity which can measure the economic benefits of carbon emissions per unit. Therefore, the identification of the factors of carbon productivity will provide an empirical evidence for increasing carbon productivity in various countries and exhibit a reference for reducing carbon emission intensity in China. Based on the 1996-2014 annual data of 36 countries, this study adopted a panel threshold model to study the threshold of merchandise exports structure for carbon productivity by using the economic development level and technology level threshold variables and learn how to use this influence to improve carbon productivity. The results demonstrate that the merchandise export structure has always been an inhibitory effect on carbon productivity, which is strong when the economic and technology development is in a relatively high level. We assume that merchandise export structure adjustment can improve carbon productivity when economic development and technology is in a proper level. In addition, the impact of merchandise export structure on carbon productivity has a significant regional difference. Based on the conclusion of this study, relevant suggestions are put forward. It is essential to optimize the structure of export commodities and improve energy efficiency from different perspectives of variable threshold system. It is also needed to solve the contradiction between carbon productivity increase and carbon emission increase, maintain appropriate economic growth rates, absorb advanced technology spillover, and improve the technical level.
引文
[1]张丽峰.碳生产率的经济学背景及其内涵分析[J].经济问题探索,2013,(5):37-41.[Zhang L F.The economic background and its connotation of carbon productivity[J].Inquiry into Economic Issues,2013,(5):37-41.]
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[3]潘家华,张丽峰.我国碳生产率区域差异性研究[J].中国工业经济,2011,(5):47-57.[Pan J H,Zhang L F.Research on the regional variation of carbon productivity in China[J].China Industrial Economics,2011,(5):47-57.]
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[5]唐志鹏,刘卫东,宋涛.基于混合地理加权回归的中国省域碳生产率影响因素分析[J].资源科学,2017,39(12):2223-2232.[Tang Z P,Liu W D,Song T.Factors affecting China’s provincial carbon productivity based on mixed geographically weighted regression modeling[J].Resources Science,2017,39(12):2223-2232.]
[6]Lu Z,Yang Y,Wang J.Factor decomposition of carbon productivity change in China’s main industries:based on the Laspeyres decomposition method[J].Energy Procedia,2014,61(1):1893-1896.
[7]Lu J C,Fan W G,Ming M.Empirical research on China’s carbon productivity decomposition model based on multi-dimensional factors[J].Energies,2015,8(4):3093-3117.
[8]王树柏,李小平.提高碳生产率有助于出口质量提升吗-基于166个经济体跨国面板数据的分析[J].国际贸易问题,2017,(1):93-103.[Wang S B,Li X P.Does the increasing carbon productivity improve the export quality-based on the transnational panel data analysis of 166 economies[J].Journal of International Trade,2017,(1):93-103.]
[9]赵皋,费能云.外商直接投资、自主创新与碳生产率增长[J].资源开发与市场,2014,30(2):187-190.[Zhao G,Fei N Y.Foreign direct investment,independent innovation and carbon productivity growth[J].Resource Development and Market,2014,30(2):187-190.]
[10]赵秀娟,张捷.对外贸易对碳生产率的影响-基于88个国家1992~2011年面板数据的实证分析[J].国际商务:对外经济贸易大学学报,2016,(1):28-39.[Zhao X J,Zhang J.The impact of foreign trade on carbon productivity:an empirical study based on1992-2011 panel data from 88 countries[J].International Business,2016,(1):28-39.]
[11]张兵兵,田曦,朱晶.贸易竞争力与二氧化碳排放强度:来自跨国面板数据的经验分析[J].经济问题,2016,(9):61-68.[Zhang B B,Tian X,Zhu J.Trade competitiveness and carbon dioxide emission intensity:evidence from cross-country panel data[J].Journal of Economic Issues,2016,(9):61-68.]
[12]朱启荣.中国出口贸易中的CO2排放问题研究[J].中国工业经济,2010,(1):55-64.[Zhu Q R.Research on the CO2emissions produced by China’s exports[J].China Industrial Economics,2010,(1):55-64.]
[13]刘轶芳,蒋雪梅,祖垒.低碳约束下我国贸易结构的合理性研究[J].管理评论,2010,22(6):106-113.[Liu Y F,Jiang X M,Zu L.A study on the rationality of China’s international trade structure under low-carbon emission constraints[J].Management Review,2010,22(6):106-113.]
[14]乌力吉图.中国贸易结构与碳排放的关联分析[J].经济经纬,2012,(6):37-41.[Wu L J T.An analysis of correlation between China’s international trade structure and carbon emissions[J].Economic Survey,2012,(6):37-41.]
[15]苑立波.中国CO2排放变动的结构因素分析-一个包含贸易结构的分解模型[J].统计与信息论坛,2012,27(8):70-75.[Yuan L B.A structural decomposition analysis on change of embodied carbon emission in China:an structural decomposition analysis with trading structure[J].Statistics and Information Forum,2012,27(8):70-75.]
[16]潘安,吴肖丽.出口结构调整降低了中国碳排放吗?[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2017,(5):117-125.[Pan A,Wu Q L.Does export structural adjustment reduce China's carbon emissions?[J].Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,2017,(5):117-125.]
[17]李国志,王群伟.中国出口贸易结构对二氧化碳排放的动态影响-基于变参数模型的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2011,(1):82-89.[Li G Z,Wang Q W.Dynamic effects on carbon dioxide emissions of China’s export trade structure:empirical analysis based on variable parameter model[J].Journal of International Trade,2011,(1):82-89.]
[18]贺亚琴,冯中朝.中国出口结构优化-基于碳排放的视角[J].中国科技论坛,2015,(1):132-137.[He Y Q,Feng Z Z.China's export structure optimization-based on carbon emissions[J].Forum on Science and Technology in China,2015,(1):132-137.]
[19]高文静,柳亚琴,潘明清.工业化、城镇化对工业碳生产率的门槛效应分析[J].宏观经济研究,2017,(4):112-121.[Gao W J,Liu Y Q,Pan M Q.The threshold effect of industrialization and urbanization on industrial carbon productivity[J].Macroeconomics,2017,(4):112-121.]
[20]Hansen B E.Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels:estimation,testing and inference[J].Journal of Econometrics,1999,93(2):345-368.
[21]环球网财经.贸易额占全球八成[EB/OL].(2016-09-04)[2018-04-13].http://finance.huanqiu.com/caigc/2016-09/9399100.html.[Finance.huanqiu.com.G20 Trade Accounts for 80%of the World[EB/OL].(2016-09-04)[2018-04-13].http://finance.huanqiu.com/caigc/2016-09/9399100.html.]
[22]Kaya Y,Yokobori K.Environment,Energy and Economy:Strategies for Sustainability[M].Tokyo:United Nations University Press,1997.
[23]李季,支大林.FDI与垂直型产业内贸易实证研究-基于中韩统计数据的Granger因果验证[J].兰州商学院学报,2012,28(2):95-100.[Li J,Zhi D L.An empirical analysis of FDI and vertical intra-industry trade-granger-causality test based on the statistical data of China and Korea[J].Journal of Lanzhou Commercial College,2012,28(2):95-100.]
[24]佟金萍,陈国栋,杨足膺,等.居民消费水平对生活碳排放的门槛效应研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(1):38-43.[Tong JP,Yang G D,Yang Z Y,et al.Threshold effects of household consumption level on residential carbon emissions[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2017,31(1):38-43.]
[2]刘习平,盛三化,王珂英.经济空间集聚能提高碳生产率吗?[J].经济评论,2017,(6):107-121.[Liu X P,Sheng S H,Wang K Y.Whether economic spatial agglomeration can increase carbon productivity or not?[J].Economic Review,2017,(6):107-121.]
[3]潘家华,张丽峰.我国碳生产率区域差异性研究[J].中国工业经济,2011,(5):47-57.[Pan J H,Zhang L F.Research on the regional variation of carbon productivity in China[J].China Industrial Economics,2011,(5):47-57.]
[4]李小平,王洋.“一带一路”沿线主要国家碳生产率收敛性及其影响因素分析[J].武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017,70(3):58-76.[Li X P,Wang Y.A study on the convergence of carbon productivity in the major countries of the belt and road and the analysis of its influencing factors[J].Journal of Wuhan University(Philosophical and Social Science),2017,70(3):58-76.]
[5]唐志鹏,刘卫东,宋涛.基于混合地理加权回归的中国省域碳生产率影响因素分析[J].资源科学,2017,39(12):2223-2232.[Tang Z P,Liu W D,Song T.Factors affecting China’s provincial carbon productivity based on mixed geographically weighted regression modeling[J].Resources Science,2017,39(12):2223-2232.]
[6]Lu Z,Yang Y,Wang J.Factor decomposition of carbon productivity change in China’s main industries:based on the Laspeyres decomposition method[J].Energy Procedia,2014,61(1):1893-1896.
[7]Lu J C,Fan W G,Ming M.Empirical research on China’s carbon productivity decomposition model based on multi-dimensional factors[J].Energies,2015,8(4):3093-3117.
[8]王树柏,李小平.提高碳生产率有助于出口质量提升吗-基于166个经济体跨国面板数据的分析[J].国际贸易问题,2017,(1):93-103.[Wang S B,Li X P.Does the increasing carbon productivity improve the export quality-based on the transnational panel data analysis of 166 economies[J].Journal of International Trade,2017,(1):93-103.]
[9]赵皋,费能云.外商直接投资、自主创新与碳生产率增长[J].资源开发与市场,2014,30(2):187-190.[Zhao G,Fei N Y.Foreign direct investment,independent innovation and carbon productivity growth[J].Resource Development and Market,2014,30(2):187-190.]
[10]赵秀娟,张捷.对外贸易对碳生产率的影响-基于88个国家1992~2011年面板数据的实证分析[J].国际商务:对外经济贸易大学学报,2016,(1):28-39.[Zhao X J,Zhang J.The impact of foreign trade on carbon productivity:an empirical study based on1992-2011 panel data from 88 countries[J].International Business,2016,(1):28-39.]
[11]张兵兵,田曦,朱晶.贸易竞争力与二氧化碳排放强度:来自跨国面板数据的经验分析[J].经济问题,2016,(9):61-68.[Zhang B B,Tian X,Zhu J.Trade competitiveness and carbon dioxide emission intensity:evidence from cross-country panel data[J].Journal of Economic Issues,2016,(9):61-68.]
[12]朱启荣.中国出口贸易中的CO2排放问题研究[J].中国工业经济,2010,(1):55-64.[Zhu Q R.Research on the CO2emissions produced by China’s exports[J].China Industrial Economics,2010,(1):55-64.]
[13]刘轶芳,蒋雪梅,祖垒.低碳约束下我国贸易结构的合理性研究[J].管理评论,2010,22(6):106-113.[Liu Y F,Jiang X M,Zu L.A study on the rationality of China’s international trade structure under low-carbon emission constraints[J].Management Review,2010,22(6):106-113.]
[14]乌力吉图.中国贸易结构与碳排放的关联分析[J].经济经纬,2012,(6):37-41.[Wu L J T.An analysis of correlation between China’s international trade structure and carbon emissions[J].Economic Survey,2012,(6):37-41.]
[15]苑立波.中国CO2排放变动的结构因素分析-一个包含贸易结构的分解模型[J].统计与信息论坛,2012,27(8):70-75.[Yuan L B.A structural decomposition analysis on change of embodied carbon emission in China:an structural decomposition analysis with trading structure[J].Statistics and Information Forum,2012,27(8):70-75.]
[16]潘安,吴肖丽.出口结构调整降低了中国碳排放吗?[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2017,(5):117-125.[Pan A,Wu Q L.Does export structural adjustment reduce China's carbon emissions?[J].Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,2017,(5):117-125.]
[17]李国志,王群伟.中国出口贸易结构对二氧化碳排放的动态影响-基于变参数模型的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2011,(1):82-89.[Li G Z,Wang Q W.Dynamic effects on carbon dioxide emissions of China’s export trade structure:empirical analysis based on variable parameter model[J].Journal of International Trade,2011,(1):82-89.]
[18]贺亚琴,冯中朝.中国出口结构优化-基于碳排放的视角[J].中国科技论坛,2015,(1):132-137.[He Y Q,Feng Z Z.China's export structure optimization-based on carbon emissions[J].Forum on Science and Technology in China,2015,(1):132-137.]
[19]高文静,柳亚琴,潘明清.工业化、城镇化对工业碳生产率的门槛效应分析[J].宏观经济研究,2017,(4):112-121.[Gao W J,Liu Y Q,Pan M Q.The threshold effect of industrialization and urbanization on industrial carbon productivity[J].Macroeconomics,2017,(4):112-121.]
[20]Hansen B E.Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels:estimation,testing and inference[J].Journal of Econometrics,1999,93(2):345-368.
[21]环球网财经.贸易额占全球八成[EB/OL].(2016-09-04)[2018-04-13].http://finance.huanqiu.com/caigc/2016-09/9399100.html.[Finance.huanqiu.com.G20 Trade Accounts for 80%of the World[EB/OL].(2016-09-04)[2018-04-13].http://finance.huanqiu.com/caigc/2016-09/9399100.html.]
[22]Kaya Y,Yokobori K.Environment,Energy and Economy:Strategies for Sustainability[M].Tokyo:United Nations University Press,1997.
[23]李季,支大林.FDI与垂直型产业内贸易实证研究-基于中韩统计数据的Granger因果验证[J].兰州商学院学报,2012,28(2):95-100.[Li J,Zhi D L.An empirical analysis of FDI and vertical intra-industry trade-granger-causality test based on the statistical data of China and Korea[J].Journal of Lanzhou Commercial College,2012,28(2):95-100.]
[24]佟金萍,陈国栋,杨足膺,等.居民消费水平对生活碳排放的门槛效应研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(1):38-43.[Tong JP,Yang G D,Yang Z Y,et al.Threshold effects of household consumption level on residential carbon emissions[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2017,31(1):38-43.]