人力资本对城镇化进程的非线性影响——基于房价的面板门槛效应分析
|
摘要
本文采用我国2001-2016年30个省份的数据,建立面板门槛效应模型,以房价作为门槛变量,分析了人力资本对城镇化进程的影响。全样本数据结果显示,随着房价的上升,人力资本对城镇化的边际效率显著且递增,高房价没有阻碍人力资本的省际迁移,反而成为促进人力资本迁移的重要因素。分地区样本数据结果显示,房价对人力资本和城镇化影响的调节效果,在东部地区呈显著的"U"型特征,在中部地区呈"L"型特征,在西部地区呈反"L"型特征。
Based on the data of 30 provinces and municipalities in China from 2001 to 2016, this paper establishes a panel threshold effect model and takes house price as threshold variable to analyze the impact of human capital on the urbanization process. The results of the whole sample data show that with the rise of housing prices, human capital has a significant effect on increasing marginal efficiency of urbanization, that is, high housing prices do not hinder the Inter-provincial Migration of human capital, but become an important factor to promote the migration of human capital. The results of regional sample data show that the moderating effect of housing prices on human capital and urbanization is ‘U' shaped in the eastern region, ‘L' shaped in the central region and the other side of ‘L'shaped in the western region.
Based on the data of 30 provinces and municipalities in China from 2001 to 2016, this paper establishes a panel threshold effect model and takes house price as threshold variable to analyze the impact of human capital on the urbanization process. The results of the whole sample data show that with the rise of housing prices, human capital has a significant effect on increasing marginal efficiency of urbanization, that is, high housing prices do not hinder the Inter-provincial Migration of human capital, but become an important factor to promote the migration of human capital. The results of regional sample data show that the moderating effect of housing prices on human capital and urbanization is ‘U' shaped in the eastern region, ‘L' shaped in the central region and the other side of ‘L'shaped in the western region.
引文
[1]欧阳慧.关注新型城镇化的发展新态势[N].经济日报,2019-02-20(012).
[2]李强.就近城镇化与就地城镇化—以城市群为主题的大中小城市协调发展的重要支撑[N].经济日报,2019-02-25(018).
[3] Curtis J Simon. Human Capital and Metropolitan Employment Growth[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1998,43(2):223-243.
[4] Enrico Moretti. Workers'Education,Spillovers,and Productivity:Evidence from Plant-Level Production Functions[J].American Economic Review,2004(3):656-690.
[5] Jesse M Shapiro. Smart Cities:Quality of life,Productivity,and the Growth Effects of Human Capital[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,2006,88(2):2006,324-335.
[6] Aurora A.C. Teixeira,Anabela S.S.Queirós. Economic Growth,Human Capital and Structural Change:A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis[J]. Research Policy,2016,45(8):1636-1648.
[7]高远东,张娜.中国城镇化进程中城乡收入差距缩小的人力资本门限效应分析[J].经济问题探索,2018(9):42-51.
[8]王珍珍,穆怀中.高等教育人力资本与城镇化发展[J].华中科技大学学报,2018(1):76-85.
[9]方超,黄斌.人口城镇化对省域教育人力资本收敛的非线性影响研究[J].复旦教育论坛,2018(2):83-88.
[10] Michael Storper,Allen J.Scott. Rethinking Human Capital,Creativity an Urban Growth[J]. Journal of Economic Geography,2009,9(2):147-167.
[11] Lennon H.T.Choy,Victor J.Li. The role of higher education in China’s inclusive urbanization[J]. Cities,2017:415-510.
[2]李强.就近城镇化与就地城镇化—以城市群为主题的大中小城市协调发展的重要支撑[N].经济日报,2019-02-25(018).
[3] Curtis J Simon. Human Capital and Metropolitan Employment Growth[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1998,43(2):223-243.
[4] Enrico Moretti. Workers'Education,Spillovers,and Productivity:Evidence from Plant-Level Production Functions[J].American Economic Review,2004(3):656-690.
[5] Jesse M Shapiro. Smart Cities:Quality of life,Productivity,and the Growth Effects of Human Capital[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,2006,88(2):2006,324-335.
[6] Aurora A.C. Teixeira,Anabela S.S.Queirós. Economic Growth,Human Capital and Structural Change:A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis[J]. Research Policy,2016,45(8):1636-1648.
[7]高远东,张娜.中国城镇化进程中城乡收入差距缩小的人力资本门限效应分析[J].经济问题探索,2018(9):42-51.
[8]王珍珍,穆怀中.高等教育人力资本与城镇化发展[J].华中科技大学学报,2018(1):76-85.
[9]方超,黄斌.人口城镇化对省域教育人力资本收敛的非线性影响研究[J].复旦教育论坛,2018(2):83-88.
[10] Michael Storper,Allen J.Scott. Rethinking Human Capital,Creativity an Urban Growth[J]. Journal of Economic Geography,2009,9(2):147-167.
[11] Lennon H.T.Choy,Victor J.Li. The role of higher education in China’s inclusive urbanization[J]. Cities,2017:415-510.