基于原地应力实测数据探讨华北典型强震区断裂活动危险性及其对雄安新区的影响
|
摘要
华北地区距雄安新区300km范围内包括唐山、邢台和张北三个典型强震区,近50年来,先后发生1966年邢台7.2级、1976年唐山7.8级和1998年张北6.2级强震活动,未来仍具发生破坏性地震的风险。在现今构造应力环境下,3个典型强震区内断裂活动危险性如何、再次发生中强地震对雄安新区地面稳定性有怎样的影响,这些都是要回答的问题。对此,本文首先基于唐山、邢台和张北强震区关键构造部位深孔水压致裂地应力测量数据,依据Byerlee断层滑动失稳摩擦准则,计算各强震区内潜在发震断层的临界失稳状态,探讨断裂活动危险性;之后依据中华人民共和国第五代《中国地震动参数区划图》之《中国大陆及邻区潜在震源区划分图》,厘定雄安新区外围300km范围内主要潜在震源区和震级上限;最后选取适宜的地震烈度衰减模型,定量计算主要潜在震源区未来发生震级上限地震时对雄安新区地震烈度的影响,进而为雄安新区及重大工程抗震设防提供科学参考。结果表明:(1)唐山、邢台和张北强震区内主要潜在震源区未来发生震级上限地震产生的地震烈度衰减至雄安新区时均位于Ⅳ～Ⅶ度;(2)北京通州及邻区发生8.0级地震、涞水—高碑店沿线发生6.5级地震会在雄安新区产生Ⅶ度地震烈度,震害较轻;(3)其他潜在震源区在雄安新区产生的地震烈度均小于V度,并不会产生显著震害效应。鉴于此,雄安新区抗震设防烈度建议由原Ⅶ度调至Ⅷ度为宜。
Three typical strong seismic regions,Tangshan,Xingtai and Zhangbei,are located within 300 km radius around the Xiong'an New Area in northern China.The Xingtai M 7.2 earthquake in 1966,Tangshan M 7.8 earthquake in 1976,and Zhangbei M 6.2 earthquake in 1998 had occurred in the past 50 years and future risks of earthquake destruction in the region still exist.Under the present tectonic stress environment,what are the fault activity hazards in these three regions and how do moderate-strong earthquakes affect ground stability of the Xiong'an New Area?To answer these questions,we first calculated the critical failure state of the main potential seismogenic faults based on the hydraulic fracturing in-situ stress measurements in deep wells in the three areas,using Byerlee's fault slip friction criterion,and then investigated the fault activity hazards.Next,we determined the potential main earthquake source regions within 300 km radius of the Xiong'an New Area and the maximum earthquake magnitude for each source region,according to the fifth generation seismic ground motion parameters zonation map as well as potential source regions zonation map of China.Finally,we used the appropriate seismic intensity attenuation model to quantitatively calculate the seismic intensity attenuation in the Xiong'an New Area from the three strong seismic areas,providing some scientific guidelines for seismic fortification of major projects in the Xiong'an New Area.The results show that(1)if potential maximum magnitude earthquakes occur in the three strong earthquake regions,the attenuation of seismic intensity in the Xiong'an New Area will vary betweenⅣandⅦ degrees;(2)the potential M 8.0 earthquake in the Tongzhou district of Beijing,or M 6.5 earthquake along the Laishui-Gaobeidian of Baoding,will generateⅦ degrees of intensity attenuation in the Xiong'an New Area,which may result in minor earthquake damage;(3)the attenuation of seismic intensity produced by other potential seismic source areas will be less than V degrees,causing no significant seismic damage in the Xiong'an New Area.Therefore,the seismic fortification intensity of the Xiong'an New Area is recommended to be adjusted from the originalⅦ degrees toⅧ degrees.
Three typical strong seismic regions,Tangshan,Xingtai and Zhangbei,are located within 300 km radius around the Xiong'an New Area in northern China.The Xingtai M 7.2 earthquake in 1966,Tangshan M 7.8 earthquake in 1976,and Zhangbei M 6.2 earthquake in 1998 had occurred in the past 50 years and future risks of earthquake destruction in the region still exist.Under the present tectonic stress environment,what are the fault activity hazards in these three regions and how do moderate-strong earthquakes affect ground stability of the Xiong'an New Area?To answer these questions,we first calculated the critical failure state of the main potential seismogenic faults based on the hydraulic fracturing in-situ stress measurements in deep wells in the three areas,using Byerlee's fault slip friction criterion,and then investigated the fault activity hazards.Next,we determined the potential main earthquake source regions within 300 km radius of the Xiong'an New Area and the maximum earthquake magnitude for each source region,according to the fifth generation seismic ground motion parameters zonation map as well as potential source regions zonation map of China.Finally,we used the appropriate seismic intensity attenuation model to quantitatively calculate the seismic intensity attenuation in the Xiong'an New Area from the three strong seismic areas,providing some scientific guidelines for seismic fortification of major projects in the Xiong'an New Area.The results show that(1)if potential maximum magnitude earthquakes occur in the three strong earthquake regions,the attenuation of seismic intensity in the Xiong'an New Area will vary betweenⅣandⅦ degrees;(2)the potential M 8.0 earthquake in the Tongzhou district of Beijing,or M 6.5 earthquake along the Laishui-Gaobeidian of Baoding,will generateⅦ degrees of intensity attenuation in the Xiong'an New Area,which may result in minor earthquake damage;(3)the attenuation of seismic intensity produced by other potential seismic source areas will be less than V degrees,causing no significant seismic damage in the Xiong'an New Area.Therefore,the seismic fortification intensity of the Xiong'an New Area is recommended to be adjusted from the originalⅦ degrees toⅧ degrees.
引文
[1]孙冬胜,刘池杨,杨明慧,等.渤海湾盆地冀中坳陷中区中新生代复合伸展构造[J].地质论评,2004,50(5):484-491.
[2]何登发,单帅强,张煜颖,等.雄安新区的三维地质结构:来自反射地震资料的约束[J].中国科学:地球科学,2018,48(9):1207-1222.
[3]张岳桥,马寅生,杨农.太行山南缘断裂带新构造活动及其运动学意义[J].地震地质,2003,25(2):169-182.
[4]曹现志,李三忠,刘鑫,等.太行山东麓断裂带板内构造地貌反转与机制[J].地学前缘,2013,20(4):88-103.
[5]吴奇,许立青,李三忠,等.华北地块中部活动构造特征及汾渭地堑成因探讨[J].地学前缘,2013,20(4):104-114.
[6]赵越,陈斌,张拴宏,等.华北卡拉通北缘及邻区前燕山期主要地质事件[J].中国地质,2010,37(4):900-915.
[7]索艳慧,李三忠,刘鑫,等.中国东部NWW向活动断裂带构造特征:以张家口—蓬莱断裂带为例[J].岩石学报,2013,29(3):953-966.
[8]丰成君,张鹏,孙炜锋,等.日本MW9.0级地震对中国华北-东北大陆主要活动断裂带的影响及地震危险性初步探讨[J].地学前缘,2013,20(6):123-140.
[9]谭成轩,张鹏,丰成君,等.探索首都圈地区深孔地应力测量与实时监测及其在地震地质研究中应[J].地质学报,2014,88(8):1436-1452.
[10]谭成轩,胡秋韵,张鹏,等.日本MW9.0级大地震前后华北和东北地区现今构造应力作用调整过程与研究意义探讨[J].地学前缘,2015,22(1):345-359.
[11]徐锡伟,韩竹军,杨晓平.中国及邻区地震构造图[M].北京:地震出版社,2016.
[12]刁桂苓,张四昌,孙佩卿,等.2006年7月4日文安5.1级地震[J].地震地质,2006,28(3):497-502.
[13]郑钊,赵里,陈棋福,等.2006南文安MW4.9级地震的有限震源波形模拟研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(4):976-982.
[14]方颖,张晶.张家口—渤海断裂带分段活动性研究[J].地震,2009,29(3):136-140.
[15]王辉,曹建玲,申旭辉.华北地区的背景地震活动及区域未来强震危险性[J].地震,2011,31(2):11-23.
[16]冉勇康,邓起东,杨晓平,等.1679年三河—平谷8级地震发震断层的古地震及其重复间隔[J].地震地质,1997,19(3):193-201.
[17]徐锡伟,冉勇康,周本刚,等.张北-尚义地震的地震构造环境与宏观破坏特征[J].地震地质,1998,20(2):135-145.
[18]戚帮申,丰成君,谭成轩,等.张家口及邻区地壳稳定性研究[J].城市地质,2018,13(3):1-14.
[19]江娃利.有关华北平原强震发震构造问题的讨论[J].中国地震,2006,22(2):135-141.
[20]朱红彬,邢成起,李红,等.华北构造区主要地震带分段与强震活动[J].地震学报,2010,32(6):705-717.
[21]徐杰,方仲景,杨理华,等.1966年邢台7.2级地震的构造背景和发震构造[J].地震地质,1988,10(4):51-59.
[22]杨克绳,胡平,党晓春.从北华北盆地的地质结构看1976年唐山地震的发震机理[J].地学前缘,2010,17(5):263-270.
[23]郭慧,江娃利,谢新生.钻孔与探槽揭示1976年河北唐山MS7.8地震发震构造晚第四纪强震活动[J].中国科学:地球科学,2011,41(7):1009-1028.
[24]李四光.地质力学概论[M].北京:科学出版社,1973:1-23.
[25] BYERLEE J O.Friction of rocks[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1978,116(45):615-626.
[26]刘晓红,方亚如,蔡戴恩,等.中国六条断裂断层泥的摩擦系数[J].东北地震研究,1987,31(1):23-26.
[27]安其美,丁立丰,王海忠,等.龙门山断裂带的性质与活动性研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2004,24(2):115-119.
[28]陈群策,安其美,孙东生,等.山西盆地现今地应力状态与地震危险性分析[J].地球学报,2010,31(4):541-548.
[29]王成虎,宋成科,郭啟良,等.利用原地应力实测资料分析芦山地震震前浅部地壳应力积累[J].地球物理学报,2014,57(1):102-114.
[30]丰成君,张鹏,孟静,等.郯庐断裂带及邻区地应力测量与地震地质意义[J].地球物理学进展,2017,32(3):946-967.
[31]梁海庆,刘建中,刘其向.西南部分活动断裂面上现今应力状态与断裂失稳变形的关系[J].中国地震,1993,9(1):46-53.
[32]丰成君,张鹏,孙炜锋,等.北京昌平十三陵钻孔地应力测量与实时监测在断层活动危险性分析中的应用探讨[J].地球学报,2014,35(3):345-354.
[33]马瑾,张渤涛,袁淑荣.唐山地震与地震危险区[J].地震地质,1980,2(2):43-54.
[34]王景明,郑文俊,陈国顺,等.唐山地震地面主破裂带及地质成因探讨[J].地震研究,1981,4(4):437-450.
[35]谢觉民,黄立人.唐山地震前后的地壳垂直运动[J].地震地质,1987,9(3):1-10.
[36]谢觉民,王若柏,薄万举,等.唐山地震后发震断层和周围地区的地壳形变[J].地震学报,1997,19(5):487-492.
[37]陈运泰,黄立人,林邦慧,等.用大地测量资料反演的1976年唐山地震的位错模式[J].地球物理学报,1979,22(3):201-217.
[38]李钦祖,张之立,靳雅敏,等.唐山地震的震源机制解[J].地震地质,1980,2(4):59-67.
[39]万永革,沈正康,刁桂苓,等.利用小震分布和区域应力场确定大震断层面参数方法及其在唐山地震序列中的应用[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(3):793-804.
[40]杨雅琼,王晓山,万永革,等.由震源机制解推断唐山地震序列发震断层的分段特征[J].地震学报,2016,38(4):632-643.
[41]江娃利.有关1976年唐山地震发震断层的讨论[J].地震地质,2006,28(2):312-318.
[42]虢顺民,李志义,程绍平,等.唐山地震区域构造背景和发震模式的讨论[J].地质科学,1977,4:305-321.
[43]郝书俭,李建华,于之水,等.唐山地震发震构造的浅层地震探测[J].中国地震,1998,14(4):78-84.
[44]李建华,郝书俭,胡玉台,等.1976年唐山地震发震断裂的活动性研究[J].地震地质,1998,20(1):27-33.
[45]尤惠川,徐锡伟,吴建平,等.唐山地震深浅构造关系研究[J].地震地质,2002,24(4):571-582.
[46]牛琳琳,杜建军,丰成君,等.冀东地区深孔地应力测量及其意义[J].地震学报,2015,37(1):89-102.
[47] HAIMSON B C.Near surface and deep hydrofracturing stress measurements in the Waterloo Quartzite[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences&Geomechanics Abstracts,1980,17(2):81-88.
[48] LEE M Y,HAIMSON B C.Statistical evaluation of hydraulic fracturing stress measurement parameters[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences&Geomechanics Abstracts,1989,26(6):447-456.
[49] HAYASHI K,HAIMSON B C.Characteristics of shut-in curves in hydraulic fracturing stress measurements and determination of in situ minimum compressive stress[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1991,96(B11):18311-18321.
[50] HAIMSON B C,CORNET F H.ISRM suggested methods for stress estimation:Part3.Hydraulic fracturing and/or hydraulic testing of pre-existing fractures(HTPF)[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences,2003,40(7/8):1011-1020.
[51]丰成君,陈群策,吴满路,等.水压致裂应力测量数据分析:对瞬时关闭压力ps的常用判读方法讨论[J].岩土力学,2012,33(7):2149-2159.
[52]国家地震科学数据共享中心.中国台网统一地震目录[EB/OL].(2009-01-01)[2018-11-15].http:∥data.earthquake.cn/.
[53]徐锡伟,于贵华,王峰,等.1966年邢台地震群的发震构造模型:新生断层形成?先存活断层摩擦黏滑?[J].中国地震,2000,16(4):364-378.
[54]李传友,汪一鹏,王志才.中国东部城市地区隐伏断裂上断点与最新活动时代关系的初步分析:以邢台、唐山地震区为例[J].地震地质,2007,29(2):431-445.
[55]陈运泰,林邦慧,林中洋,等.根据地面形变的观测研究1966年邢台地震的震源过程[J].地球物理学报,1975,18(3):164-182.
[56]何志桐,谢挺.邢台地震系列的空间分布、构造应力场及其发生过程的探讨[J].地球物理学报,1977,20(2):131-142.
[57]邵志刚,李旖雯,王芃.1966年邢台强震群震前、同震和震后断层运动特征分析[J].地震,2015,35(3):1-9.
[58]高祥林.邢台地震的发震构造[J].华北地震科学,1991,9(1):51-58.
[59]王椿镛,王贵美,林中洋,等.用深地震反射方法研究邢台地震区地壳细结构[J].地球物理学报,1993,36(4):445-452.
[60]张家茹,邵学钟,章思亚,等.邢台强震的深部三维构造背景和孕震条件[J].地震地质,1994,16(4):319-328.
[61]刘洁,宋惠珍.邢台地震断层运动特征反演分析[J].地震地质,1999,21(3):229-237.
[62]赵成彬,孙振国,刘保金,等.邢台地震区浅部构造特征及其与深部构造的耦合关系[J].地震地质,1999,21(4):417-424.
[63]徐杰,高战武,宋长青,等.太行山山前断裂带的构造特征[J].地震地质,2000,22(2):111-122.
[64]安惠婷,许立青,李三忠,等.太行山东麓断裂带中、新生代构造应力场及转换机制[J].大地构造与成矿学,2015,39(4):571-586.
[65]车用太,刘五洲,王基华,等.张北-尚义地震典型地段的地表破坏[J].地震地质,1998,20(2):179-182.
[66]蔡华昌,张景余,刘荣利,等.张北6.2级地震地裂缝特征及其研究意义[J].华北地震科学,2001,19(4):47-53.
[67]马淑田,陈会忠,王松,等.1998年1月10日河北省张北—尚义MS6.2地震震源机制的初步研究[J].地球物理学报,1998,41(5):724-728.
[68]高景春,刁桂苓,张四昌,等.以震源精确定位结果分析张北地震序列的破坏特征[J].地震地质,2002,24(1):81-90.
[69]张宏志,刁桂苓,赵英萍,等.张北地区震前、震时和震后的震源机制解[J].东北地震研究,2004,20(3):1-7.
[70] LIN A M,ZHAO G C,ZHAO G Z,et al.Inferred seismic fault associated with the 1998 M=6.2 Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake,Hebei Province,China[J].Bulletin of Seismological Society of America,1999,89(2):550-554.
[71]石金虎,赖晓玲,段永红,等.张北地震近场观测资料的初步解译[J].中国地震,1999,15(2):151-158.
[72]张红,王超,单新建,等.基于SAR差分干涉测量的张北—尚义地震震源参数反演[J].科学通报,2001,46(21):1836-1840.
[73]白玲,王勤彩,刁桂苓,等.张北地震前小震活动和余震序列精确定位及主震破裂方向的讨论[J].地震,2005,25(2):26-32.
[74]徐锡伟,邓起东.不连续剪切带尾端张、压性效应有限元模拟及其构造特征研究[J].地震地质,1990,12(3):221-228.
[75]廖振鹏,李大华,孙平善.中国地震烈度衰减的概率模型[J].地震学报,1988,10(2):146-163.
[76]汪素云,俞言祥,高阿甲,等.中国分区地震动衰减关系的确定[J].中国地震,2000,16(2):99-106.
[77]袁登维,梅应堂,秦兴黎,等.长江三峡工程坝区及外围地壳稳定性研究[M].武汉:中国地质大学出版社,1996.
[78]杨百存,秦四清,薛雷,等.雄安新区地震危险性评估[J].地球物理学报,2017,60(12):4644-4654.
[79]石耀霖,张贝,张斯奇,等.地震数值预报[J].物理,2013,42(4):237-255.
[80] ZOBACK M D,HEALY J H.In situ stress measurements to3.5km depth in the Cajon Pass Scientific research borehole:implications for the mechanics of crustal faulting[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1992,97(B4):5039-5057.
[81] ZOBACK M D,BARTON C A,BURDY M,et al.Determination of stress orientation and magnitude in deep wells[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics&Mining Sciences,2003,40:1049-1076.
[82]陈群策,李宏,廖椿庭,等.地应力测量与监测技术实验研究:SinoProbe-06项目介绍[J].地球学报,2011,32(增刊1):113-124.
[83]赵文津.就汶川地震失报探讨地震预报的科学思路:再论李四光地震预报思想[J].中国工程科学,2009,11(6):4-16.
[84]赵文津.大陆漂移,板块构造,地质力学[J].地球学报,2009,30(6):717-731.
[85] LIAO C T,ZHANG C S,WU M L,et al.Stress change near the Kunlun fault before and after the MS8.1Kunlun earthquake[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2003,30(20):1-4.
[86]郭啟良,王成虎,马洪生,等.汶川MS8.0级大震前后的水压致裂原地应力测量[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(5):1395-1401.
[87]陈群策,丰成君,孟文,等.5·12汶川地震后龙门山断裂带东北段现今地应力测量结果分析[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(12):3923-3932.
[88] FENG C J,ZHANG P,QIN X H,et al.Near-surface stress measurements in the Longmenshan fault belt after the 2008Wenchuan MS8.0earthquake[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics&Mining Sciences,2015,77:358-377.
[89]丰成君,戚帮申,张鹏,等.汶川MS8.0地震后龙门山断裂带地壳应力场及其构造意义[J].地质力学学报,2018,24(4):439-451.
[90] LIN W R,MARIANNE C,MOORE J C,et al.Stress state in the largest displacement area of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake[J].Science,2013,339:687-690.
[91]丰成君,张鹏,戚帮申,等.走滑断裂活动导致地应力解耦的机理研究:以龙门山断裂带东北段为例[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2017,37(10):1003-1009.
[2]何登发,单帅强,张煜颖,等.雄安新区的三维地质结构:来自反射地震资料的约束[J].中国科学:地球科学,2018,48(9):1207-1222.
[3]张岳桥,马寅生,杨农.太行山南缘断裂带新构造活动及其运动学意义[J].地震地质,2003,25(2):169-182.
[4]曹现志,李三忠,刘鑫,等.太行山东麓断裂带板内构造地貌反转与机制[J].地学前缘,2013,20(4):88-103.
[5]吴奇,许立青,李三忠,等.华北地块中部活动构造特征及汾渭地堑成因探讨[J].地学前缘,2013,20(4):104-114.
[6]赵越,陈斌,张拴宏,等.华北卡拉通北缘及邻区前燕山期主要地质事件[J].中国地质,2010,37(4):900-915.
[7]索艳慧,李三忠,刘鑫,等.中国东部NWW向活动断裂带构造特征:以张家口—蓬莱断裂带为例[J].岩石学报,2013,29(3):953-966.
[8]丰成君,张鹏,孙炜锋,等.日本MW9.0级地震对中国华北-东北大陆主要活动断裂带的影响及地震危险性初步探讨[J].地学前缘,2013,20(6):123-140.
[9]谭成轩,张鹏,丰成君,等.探索首都圈地区深孔地应力测量与实时监测及其在地震地质研究中应[J].地质学报,2014,88(8):1436-1452.
[10]谭成轩,胡秋韵,张鹏,等.日本MW9.0级大地震前后华北和东北地区现今构造应力作用调整过程与研究意义探讨[J].地学前缘,2015,22(1):345-359.
[11]徐锡伟,韩竹军,杨晓平.中国及邻区地震构造图[M].北京:地震出版社,2016.
[12]刁桂苓,张四昌,孙佩卿,等.2006年7月4日文安5.1级地震[J].地震地质,2006,28(3):497-502.
[13]郑钊,赵里,陈棋福,等.2006南文安MW4.9级地震的有限震源波形模拟研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(4):976-982.
[14]方颖,张晶.张家口—渤海断裂带分段活动性研究[J].地震,2009,29(3):136-140.
[15]王辉,曹建玲,申旭辉.华北地区的背景地震活动及区域未来强震危险性[J].地震,2011,31(2):11-23.
[16]冉勇康,邓起东,杨晓平,等.1679年三河—平谷8级地震发震断层的古地震及其重复间隔[J].地震地质,1997,19(3):193-201.
[17]徐锡伟,冉勇康,周本刚,等.张北-尚义地震的地震构造环境与宏观破坏特征[J].地震地质,1998,20(2):135-145.
[18]戚帮申,丰成君,谭成轩,等.张家口及邻区地壳稳定性研究[J].城市地质,2018,13(3):1-14.
[19]江娃利.有关华北平原强震发震构造问题的讨论[J].中国地震,2006,22(2):135-141.
[20]朱红彬,邢成起,李红,等.华北构造区主要地震带分段与强震活动[J].地震学报,2010,32(6):705-717.
[21]徐杰,方仲景,杨理华,等.1966年邢台7.2级地震的构造背景和发震构造[J].地震地质,1988,10(4):51-59.
[22]杨克绳,胡平,党晓春.从北华北盆地的地质结构看1976年唐山地震的发震机理[J].地学前缘,2010,17(5):263-270.
[23]郭慧,江娃利,谢新生.钻孔与探槽揭示1976年河北唐山MS7.8地震发震构造晚第四纪强震活动[J].中国科学:地球科学,2011,41(7):1009-1028.
[24]李四光.地质力学概论[M].北京:科学出版社,1973:1-23.
[25] BYERLEE J O.Friction of rocks[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1978,116(45):615-626.
[26]刘晓红,方亚如,蔡戴恩,等.中国六条断裂断层泥的摩擦系数[J].东北地震研究,1987,31(1):23-26.
[27]安其美,丁立丰,王海忠,等.龙门山断裂带的性质与活动性研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2004,24(2):115-119.
[28]陈群策,安其美,孙东生,等.山西盆地现今地应力状态与地震危险性分析[J].地球学报,2010,31(4):541-548.
[29]王成虎,宋成科,郭啟良,等.利用原地应力实测资料分析芦山地震震前浅部地壳应力积累[J].地球物理学报,2014,57(1):102-114.
[30]丰成君,张鹏,孟静,等.郯庐断裂带及邻区地应力测量与地震地质意义[J].地球物理学进展,2017,32(3):946-967.
[31]梁海庆,刘建中,刘其向.西南部分活动断裂面上现今应力状态与断裂失稳变形的关系[J].中国地震,1993,9(1):46-53.
[32]丰成君,张鹏,孙炜锋,等.北京昌平十三陵钻孔地应力测量与实时监测在断层活动危险性分析中的应用探讨[J].地球学报,2014,35(3):345-354.
[33]马瑾,张渤涛,袁淑荣.唐山地震与地震危险区[J].地震地质,1980,2(2):43-54.
[34]王景明,郑文俊,陈国顺,等.唐山地震地面主破裂带及地质成因探讨[J].地震研究,1981,4(4):437-450.
[35]谢觉民,黄立人.唐山地震前后的地壳垂直运动[J].地震地质,1987,9(3):1-10.
[36]谢觉民,王若柏,薄万举,等.唐山地震后发震断层和周围地区的地壳形变[J].地震学报,1997,19(5):487-492.
[37]陈运泰,黄立人,林邦慧,等.用大地测量资料反演的1976年唐山地震的位错模式[J].地球物理学报,1979,22(3):201-217.
[38]李钦祖,张之立,靳雅敏,等.唐山地震的震源机制解[J].地震地质,1980,2(4):59-67.
[39]万永革,沈正康,刁桂苓,等.利用小震分布和区域应力场确定大震断层面参数方法及其在唐山地震序列中的应用[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(3):793-804.
[40]杨雅琼,王晓山,万永革,等.由震源机制解推断唐山地震序列发震断层的分段特征[J].地震学报,2016,38(4):632-643.
[41]江娃利.有关1976年唐山地震发震断层的讨论[J].地震地质,2006,28(2):312-318.
[42]虢顺民,李志义,程绍平,等.唐山地震区域构造背景和发震模式的讨论[J].地质科学,1977,4:305-321.
[43]郝书俭,李建华,于之水,等.唐山地震发震构造的浅层地震探测[J].中国地震,1998,14(4):78-84.
[44]李建华,郝书俭,胡玉台,等.1976年唐山地震发震断裂的活动性研究[J].地震地质,1998,20(1):27-33.
[45]尤惠川,徐锡伟,吴建平,等.唐山地震深浅构造关系研究[J].地震地质,2002,24(4):571-582.
[46]牛琳琳,杜建军,丰成君,等.冀东地区深孔地应力测量及其意义[J].地震学报,2015,37(1):89-102.
[47] HAIMSON B C.Near surface and deep hydrofracturing stress measurements in the Waterloo Quartzite[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences&Geomechanics Abstracts,1980,17(2):81-88.
[48] LEE M Y,HAIMSON B C.Statistical evaluation of hydraulic fracturing stress measurement parameters[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences&Geomechanics Abstracts,1989,26(6):447-456.
[49] HAYASHI K,HAIMSON B C.Characteristics of shut-in curves in hydraulic fracturing stress measurements and determination of in situ minimum compressive stress[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1991,96(B11):18311-18321.
[50] HAIMSON B C,CORNET F H.ISRM suggested methods for stress estimation:Part3.Hydraulic fracturing and/or hydraulic testing of pre-existing fractures(HTPF)[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences,2003,40(7/8):1011-1020.
[51]丰成君,陈群策,吴满路,等.水压致裂应力测量数据分析:对瞬时关闭压力ps的常用判读方法讨论[J].岩土力学,2012,33(7):2149-2159.
[52]国家地震科学数据共享中心.中国台网统一地震目录[EB/OL].(2009-01-01)[2018-11-15].http:∥data.earthquake.cn/.
[53]徐锡伟,于贵华,王峰,等.1966年邢台地震群的发震构造模型:新生断层形成?先存活断层摩擦黏滑?[J].中国地震,2000,16(4):364-378.
[54]李传友,汪一鹏,王志才.中国东部城市地区隐伏断裂上断点与最新活动时代关系的初步分析:以邢台、唐山地震区为例[J].地震地质,2007,29(2):431-445.
[55]陈运泰,林邦慧,林中洋,等.根据地面形变的观测研究1966年邢台地震的震源过程[J].地球物理学报,1975,18(3):164-182.
[56]何志桐,谢挺.邢台地震系列的空间分布、构造应力场及其发生过程的探讨[J].地球物理学报,1977,20(2):131-142.
[57]邵志刚,李旖雯,王芃.1966年邢台强震群震前、同震和震后断层运动特征分析[J].地震,2015,35(3):1-9.
[58]高祥林.邢台地震的发震构造[J].华北地震科学,1991,9(1):51-58.
[59]王椿镛,王贵美,林中洋,等.用深地震反射方法研究邢台地震区地壳细结构[J].地球物理学报,1993,36(4):445-452.
[60]张家茹,邵学钟,章思亚,等.邢台强震的深部三维构造背景和孕震条件[J].地震地质,1994,16(4):319-328.
[61]刘洁,宋惠珍.邢台地震断层运动特征反演分析[J].地震地质,1999,21(3):229-237.
[62]赵成彬,孙振国,刘保金,等.邢台地震区浅部构造特征及其与深部构造的耦合关系[J].地震地质,1999,21(4):417-424.
[63]徐杰,高战武,宋长青,等.太行山山前断裂带的构造特征[J].地震地质,2000,22(2):111-122.
[64]安惠婷,许立青,李三忠,等.太行山东麓断裂带中、新生代构造应力场及转换机制[J].大地构造与成矿学,2015,39(4):571-586.
[65]车用太,刘五洲,王基华,等.张北-尚义地震典型地段的地表破坏[J].地震地质,1998,20(2):179-182.
[66]蔡华昌,张景余,刘荣利,等.张北6.2级地震地裂缝特征及其研究意义[J].华北地震科学,2001,19(4):47-53.
[67]马淑田,陈会忠,王松,等.1998年1月10日河北省张北—尚义MS6.2地震震源机制的初步研究[J].地球物理学报,1998,41(5):724-728.
[68]高景春,刁桂苓,张四昌,等.以震源精确定位结果分析张北地震序列的破坏特征[J].地震地质,2002,24(1):81-90.
[69]张宏志,刁桂苓,赵英萍,等.张北地区震前、震时和震后的震源机制解[J].东北地震研究,2004,20(3):1-7.
[70] LIN A M,ZHAO G C,ZHAO G Z,et al.Inferred seismic fault associated with the 1998 M=6.2 Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake,Hebei Province,China[J].Bulletin of Seismological Society of America,1999,89(2):550-554.
[71]石金虎,赖晓玲,段永红,等.张北地震近场观测资料的初步解译[J].中国地震,1999,15(2):151-158.
[72]张红,王超,单新建,等.基于SAR差分干涉测量的张北—尚义地震震源参数反演[J].科学通报,2001,46(21):1836-1840.
[73]白玲,王勤彩,刁桂苓,等.张北地震前小震活动和余震序列精确定位及主震破裂方向的讨论[J].地震,2005,25(2):26-32.
[74]徐锡伟,邓起东.不连续剪切带尾端张、压性效应有限元模拟及其构造特征研究[J].地震地质,1990,12(3):221-228.
[75]廖振鹏,李大华,孙平善.中国地震烈度衰减的概率模型[J].地震学报,1988,10(2):146-163.
[76]汪素云,俞言祥,高阿甲,等.中国分区地震动衰减关系的确定[J].中国地震,2000,16(2):99-106.
[77]袁登维,梅应堂,秦兴黎,等.长江三峡工程坝区及外围地壳稳定性研究[M].武汉:中国地质大学出版社,1996.
[78]杨百存,秦四清,薛雷,等.雄安新区地震危险性评估[J].地球物理学报,2017,60(12):4644-4654.
[79]石耀霖,张贝,张斯奇,等.地震数值预报[J].物理,2013,42(4):237-255.
[80] ZOBACK M D,HEALY J H.In situ stress measurements to3.5km depth in the Cajon Pass Scientific research borehole:implications for the mechanics of crustal faulting[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1992,97(B4):5039-5057.
[81] ZOBACK M D,BARTON C A,BURDY M,et al.Determination of stress orientation and magnitude in deep wells[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics&Mining Sciences,2003,40:1049-1076.
[82]陈群策,李宏,廖椿庭,等.地应力测量与监测技术实验研究:SinoProbe-06项目介绍[J].地球学报,2011,32(增刊1):113-124.
[83]赵文津.就汶川地震失报探讨地震预报的科学思路:再论李四光地震预报思想[J].中国工程科学,2009,11(6):4-16.
[84]赵文津.大陆漂移,板块构造,地质力学[J].地球学报,2009,30(6):717-731.
[85] LIAO C T,ZHANG C S,WU M L,et al.Stress change near the Kunlun fault before and after the MS8.1Kunlun earthquake[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2003,30(20):1-4.
[86]郭啟良,王成虎,马洪生,等.汶川MS8.0级大震前后的水压致裂原地应力测量[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(5):1395-1401.
[87]陈群策,丰成君,孟文,等.5·12汶川地震后龙门山断裂带东北段现今地应力测量结果分析[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(12):3923-3932.
[88] FENG C J,ZHANG P,QIN X H,et al.Near-surface stress measurements in the Longmenshan fault belt after the 2008Wenchuan MS8.0earthquake[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics&Mining Sciences,2015,77:358-377.
[89]丰成君,戚帮申,张鹏,等.汶川MS8.0地震后龙门山断裂带地壳应力场及其构造意义[J].地质力学学报,2018,24(4):439-451.
[90] LIN W R,MARIANNE C,MOORE J C,et al.Stress state in the largest displacement area of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake[J].Science,2013,339:687-690.
[91]丰成君,张鹏,戚帮申,等.走滑断裂活动导致地应力解耦的机理研究:以龙门山断裂带东北段为例[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2017,37(10):1003-1009.