近60年清涧河洪峰流量极值的变化特征分析
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摘要
以清涧河流域水文站延川站和子长站建站以来的场次洪水实测洪峰流量为研究数据,通过线性倾向分析与累积距平分析其变化趋势,并通过R/S法进行可持续性分析;利用M-K检验进行突变分析,采用复Morlet小波来诊断清涧河洪峰流量的周期特征,并分析洪峰流量极值与降水量极值的相关性。结果表明,清涧河年最大洪峰流量均发生在6、7、8、9月,集中发生在7和8月,且以发生在0:00—5:59、18:00—23:59的时间段内为主;年最大洪峰流量在波动变化的过程中呈现减少趋势,减少趋势具有微弱持续性;在该时间段年最大洪峰流量发生突变,突变点为2007年;小波分析结果显示,在该时间段内存在4、7、11年的周期,控制着年最大洪峰流量变化过程;相关性检验表明洪峰流量极值与降水量极值在α=0.05的显著性水平上相关系数不显著。
Adopted the measured flood peak flow value which based on Yanchuan and Zichang stations since the Qingjian River basin hydrology station as research data. Then, its variation trend through the cumulative anomaly and the linear trend estimation were analyzed, and the sustainability analysis through R/S method was carried out, in addition to use the M-K test for the mutation analysis, and also the Morlet complex wavelet was used to diagnose the periodical characteristics of the flood peak discharge of the Qingjian River. Furthermore, the correlation between the peak value of the flood peak discharge and the extreme value of precipitation was analyzed. The results indicated that the annual peak discharges of the Qing jian River occurred in June, July, August and September. The concentrations occurred in July and August, and occurred at 0:00—5:59, 18:00—23:59. The main time period was dominated; The annual maximum peak discharge showed a decreasing trend in the process of fluctuations, and the decreasing trend had a weak persistence; During this time period, the annual maximum peak flood flow occured abruptly changes, and the mutation point was in 2007; Wavelet analysis results showed that the period of quasi-4 a, 7 a and 11 a were within this time period, which controled the annual maximum peak flood flow change process; Correlation tests showed that the correlation coefficient between the peak value of flood peak flow and the extreme value of precipitation at α=0.05 was not significant.
Adopted the measured flood peak flow value which based on Yanchuan and Zichang stations since the Qingjian River basin hydrology station as research data. Then, its variation trend through the cumulative anomaly and the linear trend estimation were analyzed, and the sustainability analysis through R/S method was carried out, in addition to use the M-K test for the mutation analysis, and also the Morlet complex wavelet was used to diagnose the periodical characteristics of the flood peak discharge of the Qingjian River. Furthermore, the correlation between the peak value of the flood peak discharge and the extreme value of precipitation was analyzed. The results indicated that the annual peak discharges of the Qing jian River occurred in June, July, August and September. The concentrations occurred in July and August, and occurred at 0:00—5:59, 18:00—23:59. The main time period was dominated; The annual maximum peak discharge showed a decreasing trend in the process of fluctuations, and the decreasing trend had a weak persistence; During this time period, the annual maximum peak flood flow occured abruptly changes, and the mutation point was in 2007; Wavelet analysis results showed that the period of quasi-4 a, 7 a and 11 a were within this time period, which controled the annual maximum peak flood flow change process; Correlation tests showed that the correlation coefficient between the peak value of flood peak flow and the extreme value of precipitation at α=0.05 was not significant.
引文
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[23] REYNARD N.利用地表径流模型预测城市化与气候变化对洪水的影响[J].中国防汛抗旱,2018,28(2):6-7.
[24]袁水龙,谢天明.窟野河暴雨洪水泥沙特征分析[J].陕西水利,2018(1):40-43.
[25]金君良,何健,贺瑞敏,等.气候变化对淮河流域水资源及极端洪水事件的影响[J].地理科学,2017,37(8):1226-1233.
[26]张健,李同昇,张俊辉,等.1933~2012年无定河径流突变与周期特征诊断[J].地理科学,2016,36(3):475-480.
[2] ZHANG Q,SINGH V P,LI J F,et al. Analysis of the periods of maximum consecutive wet days in China[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2011,116:D23106.
[3]史培军,孔锋,方佳毅.中国年代际暴雨时空变化格局[J].地理科学,2014,34(11):1281-1290.
[4]程先富,郝丹丹.基于OWA-GIS的巢湖流域洪涝灾害风险评价[J].地理科学,2015,35(10):1312-1317.
[5]方建,杜鹃,徐伟,等.气候变化对洪水灾害影响研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(9):1085-1093.
[6]中华人民共和国水利部.中国水旱灾害公报2011[R].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2012.
[7] MEYBECK M,V魻R魻SMARTY C. Fluvial filtering of land to ocean fluxes:From natural Holocene variations to Anthropocene[J].Comptes Rendus Geosciences,2005,337(1):107-123.
[8] WALLING D E,FANG D. Recent trends in the suspended sediment loads of the world’s rivers[J].Global and Planetary Change,2003,39(1-2):111-126.
[9] GUO S L,WANG J X,XIONG L H,et al. A macro-scale and semi-distributed monthly water balance model to predict climate change impacts in China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2002,268(1):1-15.
[10]李建成,庞春花.干旱区气候转型对玉龙喀什河洪水变化趋势影响[J].甘肃水利水电技术,2010,46(9):10-16.
[11]毛炜峄,樊静,沈永平,等.近50a来新疆区域与天山典型流域极端洪水变化特征及其对气候变化的响应[J].冰川冻土,2012,34(5):1037-1046.
[12]金双彦,朱世同,张志恒,等.皇甫川流域次洪水沙特征值变化特点[J].水文,2013,33(5):88-91,96.
[13]彭红,郑艳爽,尚红霞.黄河唐乃亥以上地区洪水变化特点分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2014,35(6):18-20.
[14]顾西辉,张强,孙鹏,等.新疆塔河流域洪水量级、频率及峰现时间变化特征、成因及影响[J].地理学报,2015,70(9):1390-1401.
[15]马静,田勇,孙一,等.清涧河流域水沙变化规律及影响因素分析[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(1):103-107.
[16]王计平,赵梅,程复,等.清涧河流域近50年径流时间变化特征及趋势分析[J].中国水土保持科学,2011,9(5):54-59.
[17]刘慧荣,周维博,李云排,等.清涧河流域近50年降水变化特征分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2013,24(3):124-127,130.
[18]冯思静,王道涵,王延松.水环境污染控制经济学方法研究进展[J].水资源与水工程学报,2010,21(1):19-25.
[19]徐建华,李晓宇,陈建军,等.黄河中游河口镇至龙门区间水利水保工程对暴雨洪水泥沙影响研究[M].郑州:黄河水利出版社,2009.
[20]黄勇,周志芳,王锦国,等.R/S分析法在地下水动态分析中的应用[J].河海大学学报,2002,30(1):83-87.
[21]刘健,夏军,王明森,等.1961-2015年山东省降水周期变化特征[J].人民黄河,2017,39(4):6-10.
[22]张剑锋,崔树军,李国敏.常用小波及其时-频特性[J/OL].地学前缘,2012,19(6):248-253.
[23] REYNARD N.利用地表径流模型预测城市化与气候变化对洪水的影响[J].中国防汛抗旱,2018,28(2):6-7.
[24]袁水龙,谢天明.窟野河暴雨洪水泥沙特征分析[J].陕西水利,2018(1):40-43.
[25]金君良,何健,贺瑞敏,等.气候变化对淮河流域水资源及极端洪水事件的影响[J].地理科学,2017,37(8):1226-1233.
[26]张健,李同昇,张俊辉,等.1933~2012年无定河径流突变与周期特征诊断[J].地理科学,2016,36(3):475-480.