考虑风速风向联合分布的大风灾害下电力断线倒塔概率预测
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摘要
针对实际线路风速与风向数据很难获取、现有大风灾害下断线倒塔概率预测误差偏高的不足,提出了考虑风速风向相关性的电力断线倒塔概率预测模型。该模型采用风速概率密度函数和风向频度的乘积表示联合概率密度函数,计算输电线路高度各风向的有效最优概率分布类型及参数。利用输电线路风荷载模型和铁塔风荷载模型计算得到各个方向下线路和铁塔能承受的最大风速。对数值天气预报数据进行处理,采用高度修正和插值映射后的预报风速数据作为输入参数,实现线路气象数据不足时风灾下电力断线倒塔的概率高精度预测。
In view of the deficiencies that it is difficult to obtain the data of the wind speed and direction of the actual line and the prediction error of transmission line breakage and tower topple over is higher than that of the existing wind disaster, a probability prediction model of transmission line breakage and tower topple over with the correlation of wind speed and wind direction is proposed. The model uses the product of wind speed probability density function and wind direction frequency to express the joint probability density function and calculate the effective optimal probability distribution types and parameters of each wind direction of transmission line height. The wind load model of transmission lines and the wind load model of the tower are used to calculate the maximum wind speed that the lines and the towers can bear under each direction. Through processing numerical weather forecast data and taking the altitude correction and interpolation mapping after forecasting wind speed data as input parameters, it achieves the probability prediction of transmission line breakage and tower topple over when the line meteorological data is insufficient.
In view of the deficiencies that it is difficult to obtain the data of the wind speed and direction of the actual line and the prediction error of transmission line breakage and tower topple over is higher than that of the existing wind disaster, a probability prediction model of transmission line breakage and tower topple over with the correlation of wind speed and wind direction is proposed. The model uses the product of wind speed probability density function and wind direction frequency to express the joint probability density function and calculate the effective optimal probability distribution types and parameters of each wind direction of transmission line height. The wind load model of transmission lines and the wind load model of the tower are used to calculate the maximum wind speed that the lines and the towers can bear under each direction. Through processing numerical weather forecast data and taking the altitude correction and interpolation mapping after forecasting wind speed data as input parameters, it achieves the probability prediction of transmission line breakage and tower topple over when the line meteorological data is insufficient.
引文
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[16]徐童,茅大钧.基于Copula函数和LU分解法的汽轮机数据特征选择[J].热力发电,2018,47(2):125-130.XU Tong,MAO Dajun.Data feature selection for steam turbine based on Copula function and LU decomposition method[J].Thermal Power Generation,2018,47(2):125-130.
[17]王建.输电线路气象灾害风险分析与预警方法研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2016.WANG Jian.Research on meteorological disaster risk analysis and fault early warning methods for overhead transmission lines[D].Chongqing:Chongqing University,2016.
[18]杨咏昕,葛耀君,项海帆.风速风向联合分布的平均风统计分析[J].结构工程师,2002(3):29-36.YANG Yongxin,GE Yaojun,XIANG Haifan.Statistic analysis of wind speed based on the joint distribution of wind speed and wind direction[J].Structural Engineer,2002(3):29-36.
[19]陈朝晖,管前乾.基于短期资料的重庆风速极值渐进分布分析[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版),2006,29(12):88-92.CHEN Zhaohui,GUAN Qianqian.Simulating of asymptotic distributions of extreme wind speed in Chongqing using short-term wind speed records[J].Journal of Chongqing University(Natural Science Edition),2006,29(12):88-92.
[20]ULGEN K,HEPBASLI A.Determination of Weibull parameters for wind energy analysis of?zmir,Turkey[J].International Journal of Energy Research,2002,26(6):495-506.
[21]SIMIU E,HECKERT N A.Extreme wind distribution tails:a“peaks over threshold”approach[J].Journal of Structural Engineering,1996,122(5):539-547.
[22]李宏男,王杨,伊廷华.极值风速概率方法研究进展[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(2):15-26.LI Hongnan,WANG Yang,YI Tinghua.Advance in research on extreme wind speed models[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2009,18(2):15-26.
[23]王继霞,申培萍.定时截尾下Weibull分布参数估计的EM算法[J].河南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2009,37(2):9-11.WANG Jixia,SHEN Peiping.EM algorithm for parameter estimation of Weibull distribution under timing censoring[J].Journal of Henan Normal University(Natural Science),2009,37(2):9-11.
[24]刘健新,马麟,白桦.杭州湾大桥观光塔风速风向联合分布[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2008,28(5):53-57.LIU Jianxin,MA Lin,BAI Hua.Joint probability distribution of wind speed and direction of sightseeing tower in Hangzhouwan bridge[J].Journal of Chang’an University(Natural Science Edition),2008,28(5):53-57.
[25]谢天喜,周志成,陶风波,等.基于气象预报与设备状态评价的特高压输电线路故障率计算方法研究[J].电气应用,2014(21):24-28.XIE Tianxi,ZHOU Zhicheng,TAO Fengbo,et al.Research on failure rate calculation method of UHV transmission lines based on weather forecast and equipment state evaluation[J].Electrical Application,2014(21):24-28.
[2]罗剑波,郁琛,谢云云,等.关于自然灾害下电力系统安全稳定防御方法的评述[J].电力系统保护与控制,2018,46(6):158-170.LUO Jianbo,YU Chen,XIE Yunyun,et al.A review on risk assessment of power grid security and stability under natural disasters[J].Power System Protection and Control,2018,46(6):158-170.
[3]吴勇军,薛禹胜,谢云云,等.台风及暴雨对电网故障率的时空影响[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(2):20-29.WU Yongjun,XUE Yusheng,XIE Yunyun,et al.Space-time evaluation for impact of Typhoon and rainstorm on transmission line fault probability[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2016,40(2):20-29.
[4]尹超雄,唐武勤,温灵锋,等.台风天气下配电网可靠性的新型评估算法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2018,46(4):138-143.YIN Chaoxiong,TANG Wuqin,WEN Lingfeng,et al.Anew method for reliability evaluation of distribution network considering the influence of typhoon[J].Power System Protection and Control,2018,46(4):138-143.
[5]KRISHNASAMY S G.Assessment of weather induce transmission line loads on a probabilistic basis[J].IEEETransactions on Power Apparatus and Systems,1985,104(9):2510-2516.
[6]KUDZYS A.Safety of power transmission line structures under wind and ice storms[J].Engineering Structures,2005,28(5):682-689.
[7]杨洪明,黄拉,何纯芳,等.冰风暴灾害下输电线路故障概率预测[J].电网技术,2012,36(4):213-218.YANG Hongming,HUANG La,HE Chunfang,et al.Probabilistic prediction of transmission line fault resulted from disaster of ice storm[J].Power System Technology,2012,36(4):213-218.
[8]徐文军,杨洪明,赵俊华,等.冰风暴灾害下电力断线倒塔的概率计算[J].电力系统自动化,2011,35(1):13-17.XU Wenjun,YANG Hongming,ZHAO Junhua,et al.Probability calculation of broken transmission lines and collapsed towers under ice storms[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2011,35(1):13-17.
[9]徐文军,戴宇,建艳龙,等.风暴灾害下电力断线倒塔概率预测[J].华中电力,2012,25(3):77-81.XU Wenjun,DAI Yu,JIAN Yanlong,et al.Probabilistic forecasting of transmission line damage and tower collapse from storm disaster[J].Central China Electric Power,2012,25(3):77-81.
[10]高耸结构设计规范:GBJ 135-90[S].
[11]BATTISTA R C,RODRIGUES R S,PFEIL M S.Dynamic behavior and stability of transmission line towers under wind forces[J].Journal of Wind Engineering&Industrial Aerodynamics,2003,91(8):1051-1067.
[12]王海涛,谷山强,吴大伟,等.基于数值天气预报的输电线路风偏闪络预警方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(12):121-127.WANG Haitao,GU Shanqiang,WU Dawei,et al.Method for windage yaw flashover warning of transmission lines based on numerical weather prediction[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(12):121-127.
[13]熊小伏,翁世杰,王建,等.考虑降雨修正的干字型耐张塔跳线风偏放电在线预警方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2015,43(5):136-143.XIONG Xiaofu,WENG Shijie,WANG Jian,et al.An online early warning method for windage yaw discharge of jumper towards“JG”type strain tower considering corrected by rainfall[J].Power System Protection and Control,2015,43(5):136-143.
[14]陈许霞,季民,宁方志.基于GIS的格点精细化预报插值方法的研究[J].测绘与空间地理信息,2016(10):69-71.CHEN Xuxia,JI Min,NING Fangzhi.Research on Interpolation for fine forecast of meteorological grid[J].Geomatics&Spatial Information Technology,2016(10):69-71.
[15]SIMIU E,SCANLAN R H.Wind effects on structures[J].Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers,1978,185(92):301-317.
[16]徐童,茅大钧.基于Copula函数和LU分解法的汽轮机数据特征选择[J].热力发电,2018,47(2):125-130.XU Tong,MAO Dajun.Data feature selection for steam turbine based on Copula function and LU decomposition method[J].Thermal Power Generation,2018,47(2):125-130.
[17]王建.输电线路气象灾害风险分析与预警方法研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2016.WANG Jian.Research on meteorological disaster risk analysis and fault early warning methods for overhead transmission lines[D].Chongqing:Chongqing University,2016.
[18]杨咏昕,葛耀君,项海帆.风速风向联合分布的平均风统计分析[J].结构工程师,2002(3):29-36.YANG Yongxin,GE Yaojun,XIANG Haifan.Statistic analysis of wind speed based on the joint distribution of wind speed and wind direction[J].Structural Engineer,2002(3):29-36.
[19]陈朝晖,管前乾.基于短期资料的重庆风速极值渐进分布分析[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版),2006,29(12):88-92.CHEN Zhaohui,GUAN Qianqian.Simulating of asymptotic distributions of extreme wind speed in Chongqing using short-term wind speed records[J].Journal of Chongqing University(Natural Science Edition),2006,29(12):88-92.
[20]ULGEN K,HEPBASLI A.Determination of Weibull parameters for wind energy analysis of?zmir,Turkey[J].International Journal of Energy Research,2002,26(6):495-506.
[21]SIMIU E,HECKERT N A.Extreme wind distribution tails:a“peaks over threshold”approach[J].Journal of Structural Engineering,1996,122(5):539-547.
[22]李宏男,王杨,伊廷华.极值风速概率方法研究进展[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(2):15-26.LI Hongnan,WANG Yang,YI Tinghua.Advance in research on extreme wind speed models[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2009,18(2):15-26.
[23]王继霞,申培萍.定时截尾下Weibull分布参数估计的EM算法[J].河南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2009,37(2):9-11.WANG Jixia,SHEN Peiping.EM algorithm for parameter estimation of Weibull distribution under timing censoring[J].Journal of Henan Normal University(Natural Science),2009,37(2):9-11.
[24]刘健新,马麟,白桦.杭州湾大桥观光塔风速风向联合分布[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2008,28(5):53-57.LIU Jianxin,MA Lin,BAI Hua.Joint probability distribution of wind speed and direction of sightseeing tower in Hangzhouwan bridge[J].Journal of Chang’an University(Natural Science Edition),2008,28(5):53-57.
[25]谢天喜,周志成,陶风波,等.基于气象预报与设备状态评价的特高压输电线路故障率计算方法研究[J].电气应用,2014(21):24-28.XIE Tianxi,ZHOU Zhicheng,TAO Fengbo,et al.Research on failure rate calculation method of UHV transmission lines based on weather forecast and equipment state evaluation[J].Electrical Application,2014(21):24-28.