1960-2015年淮河流域初终霜日时空变化分析
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摘要
基于淮河流域1960-2015年61个气象站点地面0cm日最低气温资料,采用线性倾向估计、反距离加权、Mann-Kendall突变检验、滑动T检验方法,分析近56a淮河流域初霜日、终霜日和无霜期的时空变化特征及突变年份。结果显示:(1)研究期内,淮河流域平均初霜日期、终霜日期和无霜期分别以2.15、2.49、4.38d·10a~(-1)的速率呈推迟、提前、延长的趋势(P<0.01),其中,在20世纪90年代的变化最为显著(P<0.01),速率分别为16.38、5.34、20.6d·10a~(-1)。(2)平均初霜日期在空间上呈北早、南迟,山区早、平原迟的分布;86.9%的站点初霜日期呈显著推迟趋势(P<0.05)。终霜日期呈西南早、东北迟,平原早、山区迟的分布;83.6%的站点通过0.05水平的显著性检验,以3.44~5.92d·10a~(-1)的速率呈提早趋势。无霜期随纬度和海拔升高而缩短;93.4%的站点通过0.05水平的显著性检验,变化率为3.56~7.59d·10a~(-1),无霜期整体延长。(3)11月8日线、4月1日线、220d等值线位置较其它各气候基准期和各年代分别偏北约1个和2个纬距,在32°N和34°N附近的偏北趋势最为明显,佐证了该区初霜日期整体推迟、终霜日期整体提前、无霜期整体延长的趋势。(4)初霜日期、终霜日期和无霜期分别在2002年、1995年和1998年发生突变。
Ground 0 cm daily minimum temperature collected at 61 meteorological stations were used to identify the first and last frost dates. Linear trend estimation was used to describe the trends in the first frost date, last frost date and the length of the frost-free period. The Mann-Kendall mutation test, the sliding T-test and the IDW method were used to analyze the mutation year and spatial variations of the first frost date, last frost date and the frost-free period in the Huaihe River Basin. The results showed that:(1) with the speed of 2.15, 2.49, 4.38 d·10 y~(-1)(P<0.01) of the first frost date, the last frost date and the frost-free period, respectively, showing the trends in delaying, advance and extension. The rates of change in the three groups were the most significant in the 1990 s, at 16.38, 5.34 and 20.6 d·10 y~(-1)(P<0.01), respectively.(2) The first frost date was spatially late in the south, early in the north, early in the mountain and late in the plain. There were 86.9% of the stations postponing significantly(P<0.05). The last frost date was early in the southwest, late in northeast, early in the plain and late in the mountain, 83.6% stations showed an early trend with the rate of 3.44-5.92 d·10 y~(-1)(P<0.05). The frost-free period decreased with the increase of latitude and altitude. 93.4% stations passed the 0.05 significant level test, and the extension rate of change was 3.56-7.59 d·10 y~(-1)(P<0.05).(3) The locations of the contour lines of 8 November, 1 April and 220 days were slightly northerly about 1° and 2° than the other climate reference periods and the decadal, with the most obvious trend being around 32°N and 34°N, which corroborated the 2 nd conclusion.(4) Mutations of first frost date, last frost date and the frost-free period occurred in 2002, 1995 and 1998, respectively.
Ground 0 cm daily minimum temperature collected at 61 meteorological stations were used to identify the first and last frost dates. Linear trend estimation was used to describe the trends in the first frost date, last frost date and the length of the frost-free period. The Mann-Kendall mutation test, the sliding T-test and the IDW method were used to analyze the mutation year and spatial variations of the first frost date, last frost date and the frost-free period in the Huaihe River Basin. The results showed that:(1) with the speed of 2.15, 2.49, 4.38 d·10 y~(-1)(P<0.01) of the first frost date, the last frost date and the frost-free period, respectively, showing the trends in delaying, advance and extension. The rates of change in the three groups were the most significant in the 1990 s, at 16.38, 5.34 and 20.6 d·10 y~(-1)(P<0.01), respectively.(2) The first frost date was spatially late in the south, early in the north, early in the mountain and late in the plain. There were 86.9% of the stations postponing significantly(P<0.05). The last frost date was early in the southwest, late in northeast, early in the plain and late in the mountain, 83.6% stations showed an early trend with the rate of 3.44-5.92 d·10 y~(-1)(P<0.05). The frost-free period decreased with the increase of latitude and altitude. 93.4% stations passed the 0.05 significant level test, and the extension rate of change was 3.56-7.59 d·10 y~(-1)(P<0.05).(3) The locations of the contour lines of 8 November, 1 April and 220 days were slightly northerly about 1° and 2° than the other climate reference periods and the decadal, with the most obvious trend being around 32°N and 34°N, which corroborated the 2 nd conclusion.(4) Mutations of first frost date, last frost date and the frost-free period occurred in 2002, 1995 and 1998, respectively.
引文
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[13]符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.Fu Z B,Wang Q.The definition of climate change and detection methods[J].Atmospheric Science,1992,16(4):482-493.(in Chinese)
[14]Reid P C,Hari R E,Beaugrand G,et al.Global impacts of the1980s regime shift[J].Global Change Biology,2016,22(2):682.
[15]Woolway R I,Dokulil M T,Marszelewski W,et al.Warming of central European lakes and their response to the 1980s climate regime shift[J].Climatic Change,2017,142(3-4):505-520.
[16]Yasunaka S,Hanawa K.Regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere SST Field:revisited in relation to tropical variations[J].Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,2003,81(2):415-424.
[17]Xiao D,Li J P,Zhao P.Four-dimensional structures and physical process of the decadal abrupt changes of the northern extratropical ocean–atmosphere system in 1980s[J].International Journal of Climatology,2012,32(7):983-994.
[18]Figura S,Livingstone D M,Hoehn E,et al.Regime shift in groundwater temperature triggered by the Arctic Oscillation[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2011,38(23):23401.
[19]李芬.山西霜冻发生规律及其区域特征研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2012.Li F.Study on the regularity and regional characteristics of frost in Shanxi[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,2012.(in Chinese)
[20]IPCC.Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report(AR5).Climate change 2013:the physical science basis.Final Draft Underlying Scientific-Technical Assessment[R/OL].IPCC,2013-10-30.
[21]高超,姜彤,翟建青.过去(1958-2007)和未来(2011-2060)50年淮河流域气候变化趋势分析[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(1):8-17.Gao C,Jiang T,Zhai J Q.Analysis and prediction of climate change in the Huaihe River Basin[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2012,33(1):8-17.(in Chinese)
[22]Zheng B,Chapman S C,Christopher J T,et al.Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheat belt[J].Journal of Experimental Botany,2015,66(12):3611.
[23]Augspurger C K.Reconstructing patterns of temperature,phenology,and frost damage over 124 years:spring damage risk is increasing[J].Ecology,2013,94(1):41-50.
[24]Liu Q,Piao S,Janssens I A,et al.Extension of the growing season increases vegetation exposure to frost[J].Nature Communication,2018.doi:10.1038/s41467-017-02690-y.
[25]王媛媛,张勃.1971年至2010年陇东地区霜冻与积温变化特征[J].资源科学,2012,34(11):2181-2188.Wang Y Y,Zhang B.Characteristics of frost days and accumulated temperature in eastern Gansu over the last 40 years[J].Resources Science,2012,34(11):2181-2188.(in Chinese)
[26]马琼.1980-2014年黄土高原霜冻时空变化及冬小麦晚霜冻危险性研究[D].兰州:西北师范大学,2016.Ma Q.Spatio-temporal change of frost and loess risk of winter wheat from 1980 to 2014[D].Lanzhou:Northwest Normal University,2016.(in Chinese)
[27]马彬,张勃,贾艳青,等.1961-2014年中国内陆农业区异常初、终霜日时空变化及其与环流因子的关系[J].气象学报,2017,75(4):661-671.Ma B,Zhang B,Jia Y Q,et al.Temporal and spatial variations of the first and last frost dates in China’s inland agricultural region from 1961 to 2014 and their relationships with circulation factors[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2017,75(4):661-671.(in Chinese)
[2]Erlat E,Turkes M.Analysis of observed variability and trends in numbers of frost days in Turkey for the period1950-2010[J].International Journal of Climatology,2012,32(12):1889-1898.
[3]Terando A,Easterling W E,Keller K,et al.Observed and modeled twentieth-century spatial and temporal patterns of selected agro-climate indices in North America[J].Journal of Climate,2012,25(2):473-490.
[4]宁晓菊,张丽君,杨群涛,等.1951年以来中国无霜期的变化趋势[J].地理学报,2015,70(11):1811-1822.Ning X J,Zhang L J,Yang Q T,et al.Trends of frost-free period in China since 1951[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(11):1811-1822.(in Chinese)
[5]杨晓玲,胡津革,张宇林.河西走廊东部初、终霜冻日和无霜期变化特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(11):149-155.Yang X L,Hu J G,Zhang Y L.The analysis of first and last frost date and frost free period variation in the east of Hexi Corridor[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2016,32(11):149-155.(in Chinese)
[6]张山清,普宗朝,李景林,等.气候变暖背景下新疆无霜冻期时空变化分析[J].资源科学,2013,35(9):1908-1916.Zhang S Q,Pu Z C,Li J L,et al.Analysis of spatio-temporal variation of frost free period in Xinjiang under the background of climate warming[J].Resources Science,2013,35(9):1908-1916.(in Chinese)
[7]杜军,石磊,袁雷.近50年西藏主要农区霜冻指标的变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(3):264-271.Du J,Shi L,Yuan L.Variation characteristics of frost index in major agricultural areas of Tibet in recent 50 years[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2013,34(3):264-271.(in Chinese)
[8]李芬,张建新,闫永刚,等.山西近50年初霜冻的时空分布及其突变特征[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(3):448-456.Li F,Zhang J X,Yan Y G,et al.Spatial and temporal distribution and mutation characteristics of frost in Shanxi Province in the past 50 years[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2012,33(3):448-456.(in Chinese)
[9]张霞,钱锦霞.气候变暖背景下太原市霜冻发生特征及其对农业的影响[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):111-114.Zhang X,Qian J X.Occurrence of frost in Taiyuan under climate warming and its impact on agriculture[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2010,31(1):111-114.(in Chinese)
[10]梁进秋,贾利芳,何正梅,等.大同市近50年霜冻及其异常事件变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(S1):124-128.Liang J Q,Jia L F,He Z M,et al.Analysis of the variation of frost and its anomalous events in Datong in recent 50years[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2010,31(Suppl1):124-128.(in Chinese)
[11]国家科学技术委员会.中国科学技术蓝皮书第5号《气候》[M].北京:科学技术文献出版社,1990,25-26.National Science and Technology Commission.China science and technology blue book No.5《Climate》[M].Beijing:Science and Technology Literature Publishing House,1990,25-26.(in Chinese)
[12]韩荣青,李维京,艾婉秀,等.中国北方初霜冻日期变化及其对农业的影响[J].地理学报,2010,65(5):525-532.Han R Q,Li W J,Ai W X,et al.Changes in the date of first frost in the north of China and its influence on agriculture[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(5):525-532.(in Chinese)
[13]符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.Fu Z B,Wang Q.The definition of climate change and detection methods[J].Atmospheric Science,1992,16(4):482-493.(in Chinese)
[14]Reid P C,Hari R E,Beaugrand G,et al.Global impacts of the1980s regime shift[J].Global Change Biology,2016,22(2):682.
[15]Woolway R I,Dokulil M T,Marszelewski W,et al.Warming of central European lakes and their response to the 1980s climate regime shift[J].Climatic Change,2017,142(3-4):505-520.
[16]Yasunaka S,Hanawa K.Regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere SST Field:revisited in relation to tropical variations[J].Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,2003,81(2):415-424.
[17]Xiao D,Li J P,Zhao P.Four-dimensional structures and physical process of the decadal abrupt changes of the northern extratropical ocean–atmosphere system in 1980s[J].International Journal of Climatology,2012,32(7):983-994.
[18]Figura S,Livingstone D M,Hoehn E,et al.Regime shift in groundwater temperature triggered by the Arctic Oscillation[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2011,38(23):23401.
[19]李芬.山西霜冻发生规律及其区域特征研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2012.Li F.Study on the regularity and regional characteristics of frost in Shanxi[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,2012.(in Chinese)
[20]IPCC.Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report(AR5).Climate change 2013:the physical science basis.Final Draft Underlying Scientific-Technical Assessment[R/OL].IPCC,2013-10-30.
[21]高超,姜彤,翟建青.过去(1958-2007)和未来(2011-2060)50年淮河流域气候变化趋势分析[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(1):8-17.Gao C,Jiang T,Zhai J Q.Analysis and prediction of climate change in the Huaihe River Basin[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2012,33(1):8-17.(in Chinese)
[22]Zheng B,Chapman S C,Christopher J T,et al.Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheat belt[J].Journal of Experimental Botany,2015,66(12):3611.
[23]Augspurger C K.Reconstructing patterns of temperature,phenology,and frost damage over 124 years:spring damage risk is increasing[J].Ecology,2013,94(1):41-50.
[24]Liu Q,Piao S,Janssens I A,et al.Extension of the growing season increases vegetation exposure to frost[J].Nature Communication,2018.doi:10.1038/s41467-017-02690-y.
[25]王媛媛,张勃.1971年至2010年陇东地区霜冻与积温变化特征[J].资源科学,2012,34(11):2181-2188.Wang Y Y,Zhang B.Characteristics of frost days and accumulated temperature in eastern Gansu over the last 40 years[J].Resources Science,2012,34(11):2181-2188.(in Chinese)
[26]马琼.1980-2014年黄土高原霜冻时空变化及冬小麦晚霜冻危险性研究[D].兰州:西北师范大学,2016.Ma Q.Spatio-temporal change of frost and loess risk of winter wheat from 1980 to 2014[D].Lanzhou:Northwest Normal University,2016.(in Chinese)
[27]马彬,张勃,贾艳青,等.1961-2014年中国内陆农业区异常初、终霜日时空变化及其与环流因子的关系[J].气象学报,2017,75(4):661-671.Ma B,Zhang B,Jia Y Q,et al.Temporal and spatial variations of the first and last frost dates in China’s inland agricultural region from 1961 to 2014 and their relationships with circulation factors[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2017,75(4):661-671.(in Chinese)