农村人口老龄化和社会保障对土地流转的影响——基于CHIP数据的分析
|
摘要
采用2013年中国家庭收入调查(CHIP)数据,运用Tobit模型实证研究人口老龄化和社会保障对农户土地流转的影响,为助推农地规模经营提供决策参考。结果表明:农村人口老龄化对土地转出有显著的正向影响,对土地流入有显著的负向影响;社会保障水平的提高能显著促进土地转出,抑制土地流入;不同制度保障类型对农地流转的影响存在差异,参与养老保险的农户更容易选择转出土地,享有低保或救济的农户流入土地意愿弱,医疗保险则不能显著影响土地流转。人口老龄化和社会保障之间存在交互作用,即农户年龄偏大且保障到位时转出土地多、流入土地少,具体体现在养老保险及医疗保险与老龄化对土地转出有显著正向交互作用,对土地流入有显著负向交互作用,老龄化与低保救济的交叉项在影响土地转出时显著为负。
Based on the data from China Household Income Survey(CHIP)in 2013,the Tobit model is adopted to conduct the empirical study about the impact of population aging and social security on farmer's land transfer,which can provide reference for the promotion of scale operation of farmland.The results show that the aging of rural population has a significant positive impact on land transfer and has a significant negative impact on land inflow;the improvement of social security level can significantly promote land transfer and inhibit land inflow;Different types of social security have differences in the impact of land transfer.Farmers participating in endowment insurance are more likely to choose to transfer land.Farmers who receive basic living allowances or subsistence relief have a weaker willingness to flow into land.Medical insurance cannot significantly affect land transfer.As to factors influencing the land transfer,there is an interaction between population aging and social security,that is,when the farmers are over-aged and well-guaranteed,there is more land transfer and less land inflow.This is reflected in the significant positive interaction between pension and medical insurance and aging on land transfer,but a significant negative interaction on land inflow.The cross-term of aging and basic living allowances or subsistence relief is significantly negative when influencing the land transfer.
Based on the data from China Household Income Survey(CHIP)in 2013,the Tobit model is adopted to conduct the empirical study about the impact of population aging and social security on farmer's land transfer,which can provide reference for the promotion of scale operation of farmland.The results show that the aging of rural population has a significant positive impact on land transfer and has a significant negative impact on land inflow;the improvement of social security level can significantly promote land transfer and inhibit land inflow;Different types of social security have differences in the impact of land transfer.Farmers participating in endowment insurance are more likely to choose to transfer land.Farmers who receive basic living allowances or subsistence relief have a weaker willingness to flow into land.Medical insurance cannot significantly affect land transfer.As to factors influencing the land transfer,there is an interaction between population aging and social security,that is,when the farmers are over-aged and well-guaranteed,there is more land transfer and less land inflow.This is reflected in the significant positive interaction between pension and medical insurance and aging on land transfer,but a significant negative interaction on land inflow.The cross-term of aging and basic living allowances or subsistence relief is significantly negative when influencing the land transfer.
引文
[1]魏后凯.如何走好新时代乡村振兴之路[J].人民论坛·学术前沿,2018(3):14-18.
[2]冀县卿,钱忠好.如何有针对性地促进农地经营权流转?---基于苏、桂、鄂、黑四省(区)99村、896户农户调查数据的实证分析[J].管理世界,2018(3):87-97.
[3]黎霆,赵阳,辛贤.当前农地流转的基本特征及影响因素分析[J].中国农村经济,2009(10):4-11.
[4]张瑞娟.农村人口老龄化影响土地流转的区域差异及比较[J].农业技术经济,2017(9):14-23.
[5]程令国,张晔,刘志彪.农地确权促进了中国农村土地的流转吗?[J].管理世界,2016(1):88-98.
[6]张忠明,钱文荣.不同兼业程度下的农户土地流转意愿研究---基于浙江的调查与实证[J].农业经济问题,2014,35(3):19-24,110.
[7]汪险生,郭忠兴.农村人口老龄化对农村土地租入-租出的影响:理论分析与实证检验[J].江西财经大学学报,2013(6):79-87.
[8]乐章.农民土地流转意愿及解释---基于十省份千户农民调查数据的实证分析[J].农业经济问题,2010,31(2):64-70,111.
[9]Stefanie D,Pat B,Alan R.Retirement Farming or Sustainable Growth-Land Transfer Choices for Farmers without a Successor[J].Land Use Policy,2017(61):526-535.
[10]Inwood S M,Sharp J S.Farm Persistence and Adaptation at the Rural-urban Interface:Succession and Farm Adjustment[J].Journal of Rural Studies,2012,28(1):107-117.
[11]吴萌,甘臣林,任立,等.分布式认知理论框架下农户土地转出意愿影响因素研究---基于SEM模型的武汉城市圈典型地区实证分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(9):62-71.
[12]陈飞,翟伟娟.农户行为视角下农地流转诱因及其福利效应研究[J].经济研究,2015,50(10):163-177.
[13]张四梅.人口结构变动视角下的我国农村土地流转[J].经济地理,2014,34(8):131-136.
[14]林蓉,翟旭宁,温钏艺.非农就业、社会保障与土地流转关系探析---以河北省张家口市为例[J].农村经济与科技,2016,27(15):191-194.
[15]包宗顺,徐志明,高珊,等.农村土地流转的区域差异与影响因素---以江苏省为例[J].中国农村经济,2009(4):23-30,47.
[16]曹芳芳,黄东,武拉平.农民工家庭化流动和土地流转的联合决策分析---基于全国2781份农民工的调查数据[J].农村经济,2018(3):37-44.
[17]陈奕山,钟甫宁,纪月清.为什么土地流转中存在零租金?---人情租视角的实证分析[J].中国农村观察,2017(4):43-56.
[18]赵光,李放.非农就业、社会保障与农户土地转出---基于30镇49村476个农民的实证分析[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2012,22(10):102-110.
[19]吴云青,罗倩,密长林,等.农民农地转出意愿及影响因素的性别差异---基于天津市578份调查问卷的实证分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(6):69-74.
[20]赵光,李放.养老保险对土地流转促进作用的实证分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(9):118-128.
[21]许恒周,郭忠兴,郭玉燕.农民职业分化、养老保障与农村土地流转---基于南京市372份农户问卷调查的实证研究[J].农业技术经济,2011(1):80-85.
[22]赵光,李放,黄俊辉.新型农村养老保险对农民土地流转行为的影响---基于“中国健康与养老追踪调查”数据的倍差法分析[J].江西财经大学学报,2015(4):49-58.
[23]张丁,万蕾.农户土地承包经营权流转的影响因素分析---基于2004年的15省(区)调查[J].中国农村经济,2007(2):24-34.
[24]Yao J.Social Benefit Evaluation on Regional Land Consolidation Based on Social Security Function of Land:A Case of Nanjing City[J].Asian Agricultural Research,2009,1(2):37-41.
[25]姚洋.中国农地制度:一个分析框架[J].中国社会科学,2000(2):54-65,206.
[26]邹宝玲,仇童伟,罗必良,等.农地福利保障如何影响农地转出---基于制度保障与社区保障调节效应的分析[J].上海财经大学学报,2017,19(3):68-80.
[27]钟晓兰,李江涛,冯艳芬,等.农户认知视角下广东省农村土地流转意愿与流转行为研究[J].资源科学,2013,35(10):2082-2093.
[28]聂建亮,钟涨宝.保障功能替代与农民对农地转出的响应[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(1):103-111.
[29]程佳,孔祥斌,李靖,等.农地社会保障功能替代程度与农地流转关系研究---基于京冀平原区330个农户调查[J].资源科学,2014,36(1):17-25.
[30]Scott J C.The Moral Economy of the Peasant Rebellion and Subsistence in Southeast Asia[M].New Haven:Yale University Press,1976:156-169.
[31]Terry V D.Seenarios of Central Europeanl and Fragmentation[J].Land Use Policy,2003(20):149-158.
[32]罗明忠,万盼盼,陈江华.农地确权对农户参与土地合作的影响---基于广东农户抽样问卷调查的实证分析[J].农村经济,2018(3):31-36.
[33]赵军洁,吴天龙.粮食布局、非农就业与土地流转---基于CHIP2013的分析[J].江西财经大学学报,2018(1):80-89.
[2]冀县卿,钱忠好.如何有针对性地促进农地经营权流转?---基于苏、桂、鄂、黑四省(区)99村、896户农户调查数据的实证分析[J].管理世界,2018(3):87-97.
[3]黎霆,赵阳,辛贤.当前农地流转的基本特征及影响因素分析[J].中国农村经济,2009(10):4-11.
[4]张瑞娟.农村人口老龄化影响土地流转的区域差异及比较[J].农业技术经济,2017(9):14-23.
[5]程令国,张晔,刘志彪.农地确权促进了中国农村土地的流转吗?[J].管理世界,2016(1):88-98.
[6]张忠明,钱文荣.不同兼业程度下的农户土地流转意愿研究---基于浙江的调查与实证[J].农业经济问题,2014,35(3):19-24,110.
[7]汪险生,郭忠兴.农村人口老龄化对农村土地租入-租出的影响:理论分析与实证检验[J].江西财经大学学报,2013(6):79-87.
[8]乐章.农民土地流转意愿及解释---基于十省份千户农民调查数据的实证分析[J].农业经济问题,2010,31(2):64-70,111.
[9]Stefanie D,Pat B,Alan R.Retirement Farming or Sustainable Growth-Land Transfer Choices for Farmers without a Successor[J].Land Use Policy,2017(61):526-535.
[10]Inwood S M,Sharp J S.Farm Persistence and Adaptation at the Rural-urban Interface:Succession and Farm Adjustment[J].Journal of Rural Studies,2012,28(1):107-117.
[11]吴萌,甘臣林,任立,等.分布式认知理论框架下农户土地转出意愿影响因素研究---基于SEM模型的武汉城市圈典型地区实证分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(9):62-71.
[12]陈飞,翟伟娟.农户行为视角下农地流转诱因及其福利效应研究[J].经济研究,2015,50(10):163-177.
[13]张四梅.人口结构变动视角下的我国农村土地流转[J].经济地理,2014,34(8):131-136.
[14]林蓉,翟旭宁,温钏艺.非农就业、社会保障与土地流转关系探析---以河北省张家口市为例[J].农村经济与科技,2016,27(15):191-194.
[15]包宗顺,徐志明,高珊,等.农村土地流转的区域差异与影响因素---以江苏省为例[J].中国农村经济,2009(4):23-30,47.
[16]曹芳芳,黄东,武拉平.农民工家庭化流动和土地流转的联合决策分析---基于全国2781份农民工的调查数据[J].农村经济,2018(3):37-44.
[17]陈奕山,钟甫宁,纪月清.为什么土地流转中存在零租金?---人情租视角的实证分析[J].中国农村观察,2017(4):43-56.
[18]赵光,李放.非农就业、社会保障与农户土地转出---基于30镇49村476个农民的实证分析[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2012,22(10):102-110.
[19]吴云青,罗倩,密长林,等.农民农地转出意愿及影响因素的性别差异---基于天津市578份调查问卷的实证分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(6):69-74.
[20]赵光,李放.养老保险对土地流转促进作用的实证分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(9):118-128.
[21]许恒周,郭忠兴,郭玉燕.农民职业分化、养老保障与农村土地流转---基于南京市372份农户问卷调查的实证研究[J].农业技术经济,2011(1):80-85.
[22]赵光,李放,黄俊辉.新型农村养老保险对农民土地流转行为的影响---基于“中国健康与养老追踪调查”数据的倍差法分析[J].江西财经大学学报,2015(4):49-58.
[23]张丁,万蕾.农户土地承包经营权流转的影响因素分析---基于2004年的15省(区)调查[J].中国农村经济,2007(2):24-34.
[24]Yao J.Social Benefit Evaluation on Regional Land Consolidation Based on Social Security Function of Land:A Case of Nanjing City[J].Asian Agricultural Research,2009,1(2):37-41.
[25]姚洋.中国农地制度:一个分析框架[J].中国社会科学,2000(2):54-65,206.
[26]邹宝玲,仇童伟,罗必良,等.农地福利保障如何影响农地转出---基于制度保障与社区保障调节效应的分析[J].上海财经大学学报,2017,19(3):68-80.
[27]钟晓兰,李江涛,冯艳芬,等.农户认知视角下广东省农村土地流转意愿与流转行为研究[J].资源科学,2013,35(10):2082-2093.
[28]聂建亮,钟涨宝.保障功能替代与农民对农地转出的响应[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(1):103-111.
[29]程佳,孔祥斌,李靖,等.农地社会保障功能替代程度与农地流转关系研究---基于京冀平原区330个农户调查[J].资源科学,2014,36(1):17-25.
[30]Scott J C.The Moral Economy of the Peasant Rebellion and Subsistence in Southeast Asia[M].New Haven:Yale University Press,1976:156-169.
[31]Terry V D.Seenarios of Central Europeanl and Fragmentation[J].Land Use Policy,2003(20):149-158.
[32]罗明忠,万盼盼,陈江华.农地确权对农户参与土地合作的影响---基于广东农户抽样问卷调查的实证分析[J].农村经济,2018(3):31-36.
[33]赵军洁,吴天龙.粮食布局、非农就业与土地流转---基于CHIP2013的分析[J].江西财经大学学报,2018(1):80-89.