中国水资源安全风险评价
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摘要
水资源安全风险评价是对水资源进行风险管理的重要基础。本文以水资源安全内涵为基础,结合灾害系统论和风险理论,构建了水资源安全风险评价指标体系和水资源安全风险评价模型,并且采用主观AHP(层次分析法)和客观熵权法结合离差平方和最优组合赋权法进行确权,结合近年相关数据指标计算出各省级研究单元的水资源安全风险值,并根据自然断点法划分极高、高、中、低、极低5个风险等级,最后将极高风险、高风险、以及中等风险地区的水资源安全风险类型,划分为水量短缺风险、水质污染风险、干旱风险和洪涝风险。研究结果显示:水量短缺型风险主要分布在京津冀地区、辽宁、山东、河南、宁夏和甘肃地区;水质污染型风险有上海、辽宁、京津冀地区、江苏、吉林、山西、河南和广西地区;干旱型风险有黑龙江、陕西、甘肃、海南、新疆、内蒙和宁夏地区;洪涝型风险有广东和福建地区。针对不同风险类型提出相应的风险防控措施,从而为全国水资源安全管理提供科学有效的依据。
Water resource security risk assessment is an important foundation of water resource risk management. In this paper, based on the definition of water resource security, we combine disaster system theory and risk theory to construct the risk assessment index system of water resources security and the risk assessment model of water resource security. The subjective AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) method and objective entropy weight method combined with the optimal combination of deviation square sum weighting method were proposed to determine the index comprehensive weight. And then, the risk level of water resource security of each province was calculated by coupling the above methods and combining with relevant data indexes which were obtained in Chinas statistical yearbook, each provincial water resources bulletin and some water resources security research results in recent years. And extreme high risk level, high risk level, moderate risk level, low risk level and extreme low risk level of water resources security risk were calculated through the natural break classification method. Finally, the types of water resource security risks in each research unit with extreme high risk level, high risk level, and moderate risk level were calcounted based on hazard indicators. The water resources security risk statistical results show that the risk of water resources shortage is identified in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong,Henan, Ningxia, and Gansu provinces. Risk of water quality is found in Shanghai, Liaoning, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Jiangsu, Jilin, Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi provinces. Drought risks is characterized in Heilongjiang, Shanxi, Gansu, Hainan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia provinces.Flood risk is exhibited in Guangdong and Fujian provinces. Through different risk types of water resources security some risk preventive and controllable measures are proposed to manage Chinas water resources security scientifically to remit and solve the water resources security risk level of each research unit.
Water resource security risk assessment is an important foundation of water resource risk management. In this paper, based on the definition of water resource security, we combine disaster system theory and risk theory to construct the risk assessment index system of water resources security and the risk assessment model of water resource security. The subjective AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) method and objective entropy weight method combined with the optimal combination of deviation square sum weighting method were proposed to determine the index comprehensive weight. And then, the risk level of water resource security of each province was calculated by coupling the above methods and combining with relevant data indexes which were obtained in Chinas statistical yearbook, each provincial water resources bulletin and some water resources security research results in recent years. And extreme high risk level, high risk level, moderate risk level, low risk level and extreme low risk level of water resources security risk were calculated through the natural break classification method. Finally, the types of water resource security risks in each research unit with extreme high risk level, high risk level, and moderate risk level were calcounted based on hazard indicators. The water resources security risk statistical results show that the risk of water resources shortage is identified in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong,Henan, Ningxia, and Gansu provinces. Risk of water quality is found in Shanghai, Liaoning, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Jiangsu, Jilin, Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi provinces. Drought risks is characterized in Heilongjiang, Shanxi, Gansu, Hainan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia provinces.Flood risk is exhibited in Guangdong and Fujian provinces. Through different risk types of water resources security some risk preventive and controllable measures are proposed to manage Chinas water resources security scientifically to remit and solve the water resources security risk level of each research unit.
引文
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[8]Peduzzi P,Dao H,Herold C,et al.Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards:The disaster risk index[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2009,9(4):1149-1159.
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[14]Walter M T,Walter M F,Brooks E S,et al.Hydrologically sensitive areas:Variable source area hydrology implications for water quality risk assessment[J].Journal of Soil&Water Conservation,2000,55(3):277-284.
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[17]韩宇平,王永兵,冯小明.基于最大熵原理的区域水资源短缺风险综合评价[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(1):397-399.[Han Y P,Wang Y B,Feng X M.Comprehensive evaluation of regional water resources shortage risk based on the maximum entropy principle[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2011,39(1):397-399.]
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[19]Kaplan S,Garrick B J.On the quantitative definition of risk[J].Risk Analysis,1981,1(1):11-27.
[20]Verro R,Calliera M,Maffioli G,et al.GIS-based system for surface water risk assessment of agricultural chemicals(1):Methodological approach[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2002,36(7):1532-1538.
[21]史培军.三论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):1-9.[Shi P J.Theory on disaster science and disaster dynamics[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2002,11(3):1-9.]
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[23]Dilley M,Chen R S,Deichmann U,et al.Natural Disaster Hotspots:A Global Risk Analysis[M].The World Bank Hazard Management Unit,2005,20(4):1-145.
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[27]World Meteorological Organization.Standardized Precipitation Index User Guide[R].WMO-No.1090,2012.
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[42]郭金玉,张忠彬,孙庆云.层次分析法的研究与应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,(5):148-153.[Guo J Y,Zhang Z B,Sun Y Q.Study and applications of analytic hierarchy process[J].China Safety Science Journal,2008,(5):148-153.]
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