基于GIS和模糊数学的神农架村镇山洪风险评价
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摘要
神农架林区山洪灾害频繁发生,为了评价神农架各个地区的灾害状况,给当地政府进行灾害防御规划提供技术支撑,根据山洪灾害的发生机制和山洪灾害风险评价原理,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境暴露性、承灾体脆弱性、防灾减灾措施4个角度构建了神农架林区村镇山洪灾害风险模糊综合评价模型,结合层次分析法并采用GIS分析技术对其进行了多层次的模糊综合评价。结果表明,林区山洪灾害危险性主要受降雨量影响,总体趋势是西南部高于东北部;山洪灾害暴露性风险分布区域性较强,主要集中在中部和西部;脆弱性风险相对较小;防灾减灾能力全区都整体偏弱,林区基础设施建设亟需加强。神农架林区山洪综合风险高值区集中在西部的木鱼镇和大九湖乡两个旅游重镇,较高及以上风险面积占全区面积的24.92%。
Mountain torrent in Shennongjia forest region occurs frequently. In order to evaluate the disaster situation in various areas of Shennongjia and provide the government with technical support for disaster prevention planning, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of mountain flood disaster risk in villages and towns in Shennongjia forest region was constructed from four angles which were the risk of disaster factors, the exposure of the disaster environment, the vulnerability of the carrier and disaster prevention and mitigation measures according to the occurrence mechanism of mountain flood disasters and the risk assessment principle of mountain flood disasters. And multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of it was carried out by analytic hierarchy process and GIS. Results showed that the forest mountain torrent disaster risk was mainly affected by rainfall, and the overall trend was southwest higher than northeast. Mountain torrent disaster exposure risk distribution had strong regional features, mainly concentrated in the central and western. Vulnerability risk was relatively small. Disaster prevention and mitigation capacity of district was overall weak, and forest infrastructure needs to be strengthened. The concentration area of comprehensive high value of flash floods in Shennongjia forest region was the west Muyu town and Dajiuhu village,two important tourist town, the square of high and above risk area of these two areas accounted for 24.92% of whole district.
Mountain torrent in Shennongjia forest region occurs frequently. In order to evaluate the disaster situation in various areas of Shennongjia and provide the government with technical support for disaster prevention planning, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of mountain flood disaster risk in villages and towns in Shennongjia forest region was constructed from four angles which were the risk of disaster factors, the exposure of the disaster environment, the vulnerability of the carrier and disaster prevention and mitigation measures according to the occurrence mechanism of mountain flood disasters and the risk assessment principle of mountain flood disasters. And multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of it was carried out by analytic hierarchy process and GIS. Results showed that the forest mountain torrent disaster risk was mainly affected by rainfall, and the overall trend was southwest higher than northeast. Mountain torrent disaster exposure risk distribution had strong regional features, mainly concentrated in the central and western. Vulnerability risk was relatively small. Disaster prevention and mitigation capacity of district was overall weak, and forest infrastructure needs to be strengthened. The concentration area of comprehensive high value of flash floods in Shennongjia forest region was the west Muyu town and Dajiuhu village,two important tourist town, the square of high and above risk area of these two areas accounted for 24.92% of whole district.
引文
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[4]唐川,朱静.基于GIS的山洪灾害风险区划[J].地理学报,2005,60(1):87-94.
[5]樊彦国,雷洁霞.基于GIS的东营市暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划[J].山东农业科学,2015,47(11):89-93.
[6]曹罗丹.基于遥感与GIS的浙江省洪涝灾害风险评估研究[D].浙江宁波:宁波大学,2014.
[7]薛晓萍,马俊,李鸿怡.基于GIS的乡镇洪涝灾害风险评估与区划技术——以山东省淄博市临淄区为例[J].灾害学,2012,27(4):71-74,91.
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[9]黄国如,冼卓雁,成国栋,等.基于GIS的清远市瑶安小流域山洪灾害风险评价[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(6):43-47.
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