ECMWF全风速场集合预报结果的偏差订正与预报不一致性分析
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摘要
采用卡尔曼滤波类型自适应误差订正法和滑动自适应权重法,对2012年夏季ECMWF 10 m全风速场集合预报结果进行偏差订正,对订正前后的预报结果进行评估,并通过Jumpiness指数对预报结果订正前后的预报不一致性特征进行分析。结果表明,卡尔曼滤波类型自适应误差订正法能有效降低集合预报的均方根误差,且当起报时刻为00时对中低纬度地区的订正效果更显著,当起报时刻为12时对中高纬度地区的订正效果更明显;卡尔曼滤波类型自适应误差订正法能有效改善Talagrand的U型或L型分布;由均方根误差分析结果知道,ECMWF 10 m全风速场集合预报本身存在较大的预报不一致性,经过卡尔曼滤波类型自适应误差订正后,集合预报的预报不一致性明显降低,偏差订正可有效改善集合预报的预报不一致性,且随着预报时效的延长,卡尔曼滤波误差法对预报不一致性的改善效果更加明显;从预报不一致性的发生次数特征来看,单点跳跃出现的次数最多,异号三点跳跃的次数最少;经过卡尔曼滤波类型自适应误差订正后,单点跳跃、异号两点跳跃、异号三点跳跃次数都有所下降。
Based on the 10 m w ind speed forecasts during the summer of 2012 from the ECM WF in the TIGGE datasets,a Kalman filter bias-correction combining w ith a sliding w eight method has been done to calibrate the ensemble perturbed forecasts.The effect of this calibration method is examined.Then,the jumpiness index is used to analyse the results before and after calibration. Results show that:( 1) In general,the calibration method can effectively reduce the RM SEs of the 10 m w ind speed ensemble forecasts at different start times. When the start time is 0000 UTC,the correction results are better in the middle and low latitudes. When the start time is 1200 UTC,the correction results are better in the middle and high latitudes.( 2) The calibration method has a good effect on improving the dispersion of ensemble members.The Talagrand pictures show that U-type and L-type distributions decrease after calibration.( 3) Analysis of RM SE show s that the 10 m w ind speed ensemble forecasts from ECM WF has great inconsistency of prediction.After calibration,the period-average forecast inconsistency indices of ensemble mean are low er than before,show ing that the Kalman filter bias-correction method can reduce the forecast inconsistency of the 10 m w ind speed ensemble forecasts.( 4) In terms of the period-average inconsistency features of the 10 m w ind speed ensemble forecasts from ECM WF,all average period-average inconsistency indices increase w ith the forecast range,in agreement w ith the practical experience that the forecasts are usually more consistent at short forecast ranges.( 5) The calibration method has better effects on reducing the frequencies of flip,flip-flop and flip-flop-flip.The flip happens more frequently than the other tw o,and the frequency of flipflop-flip is the low est.
Based on the 10 m w ind speed forecasts during the summer of 2012 from the ECM WF in the TIGGE datasets,a Kalman filter bias-correction combining w ith a sliding w eight method has been done to calibrate the ensemble perturbed forecasts.The effect of this calibration method is examined.Then,the jumpiness index is used to analyse the results before and after calibration. Results show that:( 1) In general,the calibration method can effectively reduce the RM SEs of the 10 m w ind speed ensemble forecasts at different start times. When the start time is 0000 UTC,the correction results are better in the middle and low latitudes. When the start time is 1200 UTC,the correction results are better in the middle and high latitudes.( 2) The calibration method has a good effect on improving the dispersion of ensemble members.The Talagrand pictures show that U-type and L-type distributions decrease after calibration.( 3) Analysis of RM SE show s that the 10 m w ind speed ensemble forecasts from ECM WF has great inconsistency of prediction.After calibration,the period-average forecast inconsistency indices of ensemble mean are low er than before,show ing that the Kalman filter bias-correction method can reduce the forecast inconsistency of the 10 m w ind speed ensemble forecasts.( 4) In terms of the period-average inconsistency features of the 10 m w ind speed ensemble forecasts from ECM WF,all average period-average inconsistency indices increase w ith the forecast range,in agreement w ith the practical experience that the forecasts are usually more consistent at short forecast ranges.( 5) The calibration method has better effects on reducing the frequencies of flip,flip-flop and flip-flop-flip.The flip happens more frequently than the other tw o,and the frequency of flipflop-flip is the low est.
引文
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陈静,陈德辉,颜宏,2002.集合数值预报的发展与研究进展[J].应用气象学报,13(4):497-507.Chen J,Chen D H,Yang H,2002.A brief review on the development of ensemble prediction system[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,13(4):497-507.(in Chinese).
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段明铿,王盘兴,2006.一种新的集合预报权重平均方法[J].应用气象学报,17(4):488-493.Duan M K,Wang P X,2006.A new weighted average method on ensmble mean forecasting[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,17(4):488-493.(in Chinese).
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郭达烽,段明铿,夏旻惠,等,2018.模式降水与温度预报的不一致性特征[J].应用气象学报,29(3):321-332.Guo D F,Duan M K,Xia M H,et al.,2018.The inconsistency of forecasting in operational numerical prediction products[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,29(3):321-332.(in Chinese).
郭换换,段明铿,智协飞,等,2016.基于TIGGE资料的预报跳跃性特征[J].应用气象学报,27(2):220-229.Guo H H,Duan M K,Zhi X F,et al.,2016.Characteristics of the forecast jumpiness based on TIGGE data[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,27(2):220-229.(in Chinese).
Hamill T M,2001.Interpretation of rank histograms for verifying ensemble forecasts[J].Mon Wea Rev,129(3):550-560.
贺皓,1995.数值预报产品系统性误差的客观订正[J].高原气象,14(2):198-206.He H,1995.Objective correction of systematical error of numerical forecast products[J].Plateau Meteor,14(2):198-206.(in Chinese).
吉璐莹,智协飞,朱寿鹏,2017.东亚地区冬季地面气温延伸期概率预报研究[J].大气科学学报,40(3):346-355.Ji L Y,Zhi X F,Zhu S P,2017.Extended-range probabilistic forecasts of surface air temperature over East Asia during boreal winter[J].Trans Atmos Sci,40(3):346-355.(in Chinese).
Klein W H,1971.Computer prediction of precipitation probability in the United States[J].J Appl Meteor,10(5):903-915.
Klein W H,Lewis B M,Enger I,1959.Objective prediction of five-day mean temperatures during winter[J].J Meteor,16(6):672-682.
Lashley S L,Fisher L,Simpson B J,et al.,2008.Observing verification trends and applying a methodology to probabilistic precipitation forecasts at a National Weather Service Forecast Office[C]//19th conf on probability and statistics.New Orleans,LA:Amer Meteor Soc.
李佰平,智协飞,2012.ECMWF模式地面气温预报的四种误差订正方法的比较研究[J].气象,38(8):897-902.Li B P,Zhi X F,2012.Comparative study of four correction schemes of the ECMWF surface temperature forecasts[J].Meteor Mon,38(8):897-902.(in Chinese).
李莉,朱跃建,2006.T213降水预报订正系统的建立与研究[J].应用气象学报,17(S):130-134.Li L,Zhu Y J,2006.The establishment and research of T213 precipitation calibration system[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,17(S):130-134.(in Chinese).
刘成思,薛纪善,2005.关于集合Kalman滤波的理论和方法的发展[J].热带气象学报,21(6):628-633.Liu C S,Xue J S,2005.The ensemble Kalman filter theory and method development[J].J Trop Meteor,21(6):628-633.(in Chinese).
马清,龚建东,李莉,等,2008.超级集合预报的误差订正与集成研究[J].气象,34(3):42-48.Ma Q,Gong J D,Li L,et al.,2008.Study of bias-correction and consensus in regional multi-model super-ensemble forecast[J].Meteor Mon,34(3):42-48.(in Chinese).
毛恒青,王建捷,2006.集合预报业务使用现状和趋势[J].气象,26(6):26-29.Mao H Q,Wang J J,2006.The current situation and development of ensemble forecast system[J].Meteor Mon,26(6):26-29.(in Chinese).
Pappenberger F,Bogner K,Wetterhall F,et al.,2011a.Forecast convergence score:a forecaster’s approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems[J].Adv Geosci,29:27-32.
Pappenberger F,Cloke H L,Persson A,et al.,2011b.HESS opinions “on forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain:curse or blessing?”[J].Hydrol Earth Syst Sci,15:2391-2400.
Persson A,Riddaway B,2011.Increasing trust in medium-range weather forecasts [J].ECMWF Newsletter,129:8-12.
任宏利,丑纪范,2005.统计-动力相结合的相似误差订正法[J].气象学报,63(6):988-993.Ren H L,Chou J F,2005.Analogue correction method of errors by combining both statistical and dynamical methods together[J].Acta Meteorological Sinica,63(6):988-993.(in Chinese).
孙靖,程光光,张小玲,2015.一种改进的数值预报降水偏差订正方法及应用[J].应用气象学报,26(2):173-184.Sun J,Cheng G G,Zhang X L,2015.An improved bias removed method for prediction and its application[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,26(2):173-184.(in Chinese).
陶诗言,赵思雄,周晓平,等,2003.天气学和天气预报的研究进展[J].大气科学,27(4):451-467.Tao S Y,Zhao S X,Zhou X P,et al.,2003.The research progress of synoptic meteorology and synoptic forecast[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,27(4):451-467.(in Chinese).
王辉赞,张韧,王彦磊,等,2006.基于Kalman滤波的副热带高压数值预报误差修正[J].热带气象学报,22(6):661-666.Wang H Z,Zhang R,Wang Y L,et al.,2006.Errors revised for numerical forecast products of subtropical high based on Kalman filtering[J].J Trop Meteor,22(6):661-666.(in Chinese).
王敏,李晓莉,范广洲,等,2012.区域集合预报系统2 m温度预报的校准技术[J].应用气象学报,23(4):395-401.Wang M,Li X L,Fan G Z,et al.,2012.Calibrating 2 m Temperature forecast for the regional ensemble prediction system at NMC[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,23(4):395-401.(in Chinese).
王鹏飞,王在志,黄刚,2007.舍入误差对大气环流模式模拟结果的影响[J].大气科学,31(5):815-825.Wang P F,Wang Z Z,Huang G,2007.The influence of round-off error on the atmospheric general circulation model[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,31(5):815-825.(in Chinese).
魏文秀,任彪,杨海龙,等,1998.卡尔曼滤波技术在暴雨中期预报中的应用[J].气象,24(3):46-49.Wen W X,Ren B,Yang H L,et al.,1998.Application of Kalman filter method to the medium-range forecasting system for heavy rain[J].Meteor Mon,24(3):46-49.(in Chinese).
伍荣生,谈哲敏,王元,等,2007.我国业务天气预报发展的若干问题思考[J].气象科学,27(1):112-118.Wu R S,Tan Z M,Wang Y,et al.,2007.Discussions on the scientific and technological development of Chinese operation weather forecast[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,27(1):112-118(in Chinese).
薛纪善,2006.新世纪初我国数值天气预报的科技创新研究[J].应用气象学报,17(5):602-610.Xue J S,2006.Progress of Chinese numerical prediction in the early new century[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,17(5):602-610.(in Chinese).
曾庆存,袁重光,王万秋,等,1990.跨季度气候距平数值预测试验[J].大气科学,14(1):10-25.Zeng Q C,Yuan C G,Wang W Q,et al.,1990.Interseasonal climate anomaly numerical prediction experiment[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,14(1):10-25.(in Chinese).
张人禾,沈学顺,2008.中国国家级新一代业务数值预报系统GRAPES的发展[J].科学通报,53(20):2393-2395.Zhang R H,Sheng X S,2008.The development of GRAPES which is a new generation operational NWP System at the national level in China [J].Chin Sci Bull,53(20):2393-2395.(in Chinese).
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智协飞,彭婷,王玉虹,2018.基于BMA方法的地面气温的10～15 d延伸期概率预报研究[J].大气科学学报,41(5):53-62.Zhi X F,Peng T,Wang Y H,2018.Extended range probabilistic forecast of surface air temperature using Bayesian model averaging[J].Trans Atmos Sci,41(5):627-636.(in Chinese).
Zsoter E,Buizza R,Richardson D,2009.“Jumpiness” of the ECMWF and Met Office EPS control and ensemble-mean forecasts[J].Mon Wea Rev,137(11):3823-3836.
陈德辉,薛纪善,2004.数值天气预报业务模式现状与展望[J].气象学报,62(5):623-633.Chen D H,Xue J S,2004.An overview on recent progresses of the operational numerical weather prediction models[J].Acta Meteorol Sin,62(5):623-633.(in Chinese).
陈静,陈德辉,颜宏,2002.集合数值预报的发展与研究进展[J].应用气象学报,13(4):497-507.Chen J,Chen D H,Yang H,2002.A brief review on the development of ensemble prediction system[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,13(4):497-507.(in Chinese).
Cui B,Toth Z,Zhu Y,et al.,2005.Bias correction methods-adjusting moments[J].Geophysical Research Abstracts,7:05997.
杜钧,2002.集合预报的现状和前景[J].应用气象学报,13(1):16-28.Du J,2002.Present situation and prospects of ensemble numerical prediction[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,13(1):16-28.(in Chinese).
段明铿,王盘兴,2006.一种新的集合预报权重平均方法[J].应用气象学报,17(4):488-493.Duan M K,Wang P X,2006.A new weighted average method on ensmble mean forecasting[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,17(4):488-493.(in Chinese).
Ehret U,2010.Convergence index:a new performance measure for the temporal stability of operational rainfall forecasts[J].Meteorol Zeit,19(5):441-451.
Glahn H R,Lowry D A,1972.The use of model output statistics(MOS) objective weather forecasting[J].J Appl Meteor,11(8):1203-1211.
郭达烽,段明铿,夏旻惠,等,2018.模式降水与温度预报的不一致性特征[J].应用气象学报,29(3):321-332.Guo D F,Duan M K,Xia M H,et al.,2018.The inconsistency of forecasting in operational numerical prediction products[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,29(3):321-332.(in Chinese).
郭换换,段明铿,智协飞,等,2016.基于TIGGE资料的预报跳跃性特征[J].应用气象学报,27(2):220-229.Guo H H,Duan M K,Zhi X F,et al.,2016.Characteristics of the forecast jumpiness based on TIGGE data[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,27(2):220-229.(in Chinese).
Hamill T M,2001.Interpretation of rank histograms for verifying ensemble forecasts[J].Mon Wea Rev,129(3):550-560.
贺皓,1995.数值预报产品系统性误差的客观订正[J].高原气象,14(2):198-206.He H,1995.Objective correction of systematical error of numerical forecast products[J].Plateau Meteor,14(2):198-206.(in Chinese).
吉璐莹,智协飞,朱寿鹏,2017.东亚地区冬季地面气温延伸期概率预报研究[J].大气科学学报,40(3):346-355.Ji L Y,Zhi X F,Zhu S P,2017.Extended-range probabilistic forecasts of surface air temperature over East Asia during boreal winter[J].Trans Atmos Sci,40(3):346-355.(in Chinese).
Klein W H,1971.Computer prediction of precipitation probability in the United States[J].J Appl Meteor,10(5):903-915.
Klein W H,Lewis B M,Enger I,1959.Objective prediction of five-day mean temperatures during winter[J].J Meteor,16(6):672-682.
Lashley S L,Fisher L,Simpson B J,et al.,2008.Observing verification trends and applying a methodology to probabilistic precipitation forecasts at a National Weather Service Forecast Office[C]//19th conf on probability and statistics.New Orleans,LA:Amer Meteor Soc.
李佰平,智协飞,2012.ECMWF模式地面气温预报的四种误差订正方法的比较研究[J].气象,38(8):897-902.Li B P,Zhi X F,2012.Comparative study of four correction schemes of the ECMWF surface temperature forecasts[J].Meteor Mon,38(8):897-902.(in Chinese).
李莉,朱跃建,2006.T213降水预报订正系统的建立与研究[J].应用气象学报,17(S):130-134.Li L,Zhu Y J,2006.The establishment and research of T213 precipitation calibration system[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,17(S):130-134.(in Chinese).
刘成思,薛纪善,2005.关于集合Kalman滤波的理论和方法的发展[J].热带气象学报,21(6):628-633.Liu C S,Xue J S,2005.The ensemble Kalman filter theory and method development[J].J Trop Meteor,21(6):628-633.(in Chinese).
马清,龚建东,李莉,等,2008.超级集合预报的误差订正与集成研究[J].气象,34(3):42-48.Ma Q,Gong J D,Li L,et al.,2008.Study of bias-correction and consensus in regional multi-model super-ensemble forecast[J].Meteor Mon,34(3):42-48.(in Chinese).
毛恒青,王建捷,2006.集合预报业务使用现状和趋势[J].气象,26(6):26-29.Mao H Q,Wang J J,2006.The current situation and development of ensemble forecast system[J].Meteor Mon,26(6):26-29.(in Chinese).
Pappenberger F,Bogner K,Wetterhall F,et al.,2011a.Forecast convergence score:a forecaster’s approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems[J].Adv Geosci,29:27-32.
Pappenberger F,Cloke H L,Persson A,et al.,2011b.HESS opinions “on forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain:curse or blessing?”[J].Hydrol Earth Syst Sci,15:2391-2400.
Persson A,Riddaway B,2011.Increasing trust in medium-range weather forecasts [J].ECMWF Newsletter,129:8-12.
任宏利,丑纪范,2005.统计-动力相结合的相似误差订正法[J].气象学报,63(6):988-993.Ren H L,Chou J F,2005.Analogue correction method of errors by combining both statistical and dynamical methods together[J].Acta Meteorological Sinica,63(6):988-993.(in Chinese).
孙靖,程光光,张小玲,2015.一种改进的数值预报降水偏差订正方法及应用[J].应用气象学报,26(2):173-184.Sun J,Cheng G G,Zhang X L,2015.An improved bias removed method for prediction and its application[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,26(2):173-184.(in Chinese).
陶诗言,赵思雄,周晓平,等,2003.天气学和天气预报的研究进展[J].大气科学,27(4):451-467.Tao S Y,Zhao S X,Zhou X P,et al.,2003.The research progress of synoptic meteorology and synoptic forecast[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,27(4):451-467.(in Chinese).
王辉赞,张韧,王彦磊,等,2006.基于Kalman滤波的副热带高压数值预报误差修正[J].热带气象学报,22(6):661-666.Wang H Z,Zhang R,Wang Y L,et al.,2006.Errors revised for numerical forecast products of subtropical high based on Kalman filtering[J].J Trop Meteor,22(6):661-666.(in Chinese).
王敏,李晓莉,范广洲,等,2012.区域集合预报系统2 m温度预报的校准技术[J].应用气象学报,23(4):395-401.Wang M,Li X L,Fan G Z,et al.,2012.Calibrating 2 m Temperature forecast for the regional ensemble prediction system at NMC[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,23(4):395-401.(in Chinese).
王鹏飞,王在志,黄刚,2007.舍入误差对大气环流模式模拟结果的影响[J].大气科学,31(5):815-825.Wang P F,Wang Z Z,Huang G,2007.The influence of round-off error on the atmospheric general circulation model[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,31(5):815-825.(in Chinese).
魏文秀,任彪,杨海龙,等,1998.卡尔曼滤波技术在暴雨中期预报中的应用[J].气象,24(3):46-49.Wen W X,Ren B,Yang H L,et al.,1998.Application of Kalman filter method to the medium-range forecasting system for heavy rain[J].Meteor Mon,24(3):46-49.(in Chinese).
伍荣生,谈哲敏,王元,等,2007.我国业务天气预报发展的若干问题思考[J].气象科学,27(1):112-118.Wu R S,Tan Z M,Wang Y,et al.,2007.Discussions on the scientific and technological development of Chinese operation weather forecast[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,27(1):112-118(in Chinese).
薛纪善,2006.新世纪初我国数值天气预报的科技创新研究[J].应用气象学报,17(5):602-610.Xue J S,2006.Progress of Chinese numerical prediction in the early new century[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,17(5):602-610.(in Chinese).
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