户籍门槛是否阻碍了城市化?——基于空间异质效应模型的分析
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摘要
户籍是识别中国人口与城市发展问题不可绕过的主题。从户籍转化率视角,利用最近两次人口普查(五普、六普)长表数据抽取285个地级市市辖区户籍、常住和外来人口信息,匹配中国城市统计年鉴数据构建了空间异质GWR模型,探讨了中国户籍门槛与城市化的关系。结果表明,户籍门槛阻碍流动人口融入城市,对城市化形成制约;在呈现对人力资本的筛选的同时,户籍门槛也会抑制潜在人力资本积累而抑制城市化;地级城市空间分异性显著,高低不同的户籍门槛在不同城市形成差异效应,并具有多渠道性。合理布局、健康有序的推进城市化,需以"因地制宜"的户籍身份转换为引导方向。
Hukou is an essential issue to identify the interaction of people and urban development. This paper,in aspect of household conversion ratio,empirically tested the relationship between China's household registration threshold and urbanization,by implying spatial heterogeneity model,GWR,bsaed on a sample of 285 prefecture cities drawing from China Population Census 2000 and 2010. Results show that,high threshold has negative effect on urbanization by holding people back from floating into the city;the threshold will have a positve affect on urban development by identifying migrantion with high ability,but will also,slow dowm the speed of urbanization by inhibiting potential human capital accumulation;cities are differ across space,and will be of significant unstationary in aspect of household threshold's effect on urbanization,with multi-channels. Thus,to have a reasonablly layouted and healthy urbanization,let a discrepant way of household conversion across city be the guiding direction is needed.
Hukou is an essential issue to identify the interaction of people and urban development. This paper,in aspect of household conversion ratio,empirically tested the relationship between China's household registration threshold and urbanization,by implying spatial heterogeneity model,GWR,bsaed on a sample of 285 prefecture cities drawing from China Population Census 2000 and 2010. Results show that,high threshold has negative effect on urbanization by holding people back from floating into the city;the threshold will have a positve affect on urban development by identifying migrantion with high ability,but will also,slow dowm the speed of urbanization by inhibiting potential human capital accumulation;cities are differ across space,and will be of significant unstationary in aspect of household threshold's effect on urbanization,with multi-channels. Thus,to have a reasonablly layouted and healthy urbanization,let a discrepant way of household conversion across city be the guiding direction is needed.
引文
蔡昉.户籍制度改革与城乡社会福利制度统筹[J].经济学动态,2010,(12):4-10.
蔡昉、都阳、王美艳.户籍制度与劳动力市场保护[J].经济研究,2001,(12):41-49.
钞小静,沈坤荣.城乡收入差距、劳动力质量与中国经济增长[J].2014,(6):30-43.
丁菊红,邓可斌.财政分权、软公共品供给与户籍管制[J].中国人口科学,2011,(4):44-52.
都阳、蔡昉、屈小博和程杰.延续中国奇迹:从户籍制度改革中收获红利[J].经济研究,2014,(8):4-13.
范剑勇,莫家伟.城市化模式与经济发展方式转变---兼论城市化的方向选择[J].复旦学报:社会科学版,2013,55(3):65-73.
金宏平、朱雅玲、张倩肖.户籍制度改革与深度城市化:社会福利差距的根源阻碍[J].西北大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2016,46(1):128-133.
龙奋杰、王宁、张艳奇.影响中国城市增长的因素:地级及以上城市的实证检验[J].城市发展研究,2010,17(10):83-86.
李郇,洪国志.户籍制度、资本积累与城市经济增长[J].城市与区域规划研究,2013,(2):63-81.
陆铭.玻璃幕墙下的劳动力流动---制度约束、社会互动与滞后的城市化[J].南方经济,2011,29(6):23-37.
陆铭.为什么要让市场发挥决定性作用---对中国经济发展的纠偏[J].上海交通大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2014,22(2):10-14.
陆万军,张彬斌.分配失衡与发展陷阱:经验事实及成因探讨[J].经济学家,2014,(7):93-101.
陆万军,张彬斌.户籍门槛、发展型政府与人口城镇化政策---基于大中城市面板数据的经验研究[J].南方经济,2016,(2):28-42.
彭希哲、万芊、黄苏萍.积分权益制:兼顾户籍改革多重目标的普惠型制度选择[J].人口与经济,2014,(1):28-36.
万广华,朱翠萍.中国城市化面临的问题与思考:文献综述[J].世界经济文汇,2010,(6):106-116.
吴开亚、张力、陈筱.户籍改革进程的障碍:基于城市落户门槛的分析[J].中国人口科学,2010,(1):66-74.
许晓明.大城市不应成为户籍开放的“钉子户”[J].中国新闻周刊,2009,(39):8-8.
颜咏华,郭志仪.中国人口流动迁移对城市化进程影响的实证分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,(10):103-110.
邹一南,李爱民.户籍管制、城市规模与城市发展[J].当代经济研究,2013,(9):53-60.
Afridi,F.,S.X.Li and Y.Ren,2012,“Social Identity and Inequality:The Impact of China’s Hukou System,”Journal of Public Economics,123:17-29.
Au,C.C.and J.V.Henderson,2002,“How Migration Restrictions Limit Agglomeration and Productivity in China,”Journal of Development Economics,80(2),pp.350-388.
Bosker,M.,S.Brakman,H.Garretsen and M.Schramm,2012,“Relaxing Hukou:Increased Labor Mobility and China’s Economic Geography,”Journal of Urban Economics,72(2-3),pp.252-266.
Fotheringham,A.S.,C.Brunsdon and M.Charlton,2004,“Geographically Weighted Regression:The Analysis of Spatially Varying Relationships,”American Journal of Agricultural Economics,86(86),pp.554-556.
Gilbert,A.,and J.Chakraborty,2011,“Using Geographically Weighted Regression for Environmental Justice Analysis:Cumulative Cancer Risks from Air Toxics in Florida,”Social Science Research,40(1),pp.273-286.
He,C.,T.Chen,X.Mao and Y.Zhou,2016,“Economic Transition,Urbanization and Population Redistribution in China,”Habitat International,(51),pp.39-47.
Wang,S.,C.Fang,H.Ma,Y.Wang and J.Qin.2014,“Spatial Differences and Multi-mechanism of Carbon Footprint Based on GWRModel in Provincial China,”Journal of Geographical Sciences,24(4),pp.612-630.
(1)户籍门槛设定的目的在于有选择的让外来人口落户城市的主城区,因此选择地级市市辖区范围作为本文经验分析的基础具有合理性。
(1)可见,因存在人口的户籍迁出情形,户籍人口变动值通常低估了实际实现了户籍转换的人口数。
(2)城市人口户籍迁出数据指标利用中国“分县市人口统计资料”中的分省统计的“地级市人口机械变动”数据进行推算。
(3)举例说明,durban=urban2010-urban2000,其中,urban2010和urban2000分别表示2010和2000年对应地级市辖区的城市化率;通过差分剔除不随时间变化的遗漏变量的影响,此时得到的方程估计量即被称为一阶差分估计量。
蔡昉、都阳、王美艳.户籍制度与劳动力市场保护[J].经济研究,2001,(12):41-49.
钞小静,沈坤荣.城乡收入差距、劳动力质量与中国经济增长[J].2014,(6):30-43.
丁菊红,邓可斌.财政分权、软公共品供给与户籍管制[J].中国人口科学,2011,(4):44-52.
都阳、蔡昉、屈小博和程杰.延续中国奇迹:从户籍制度改革中收获红利[J].经济研究,2014,(8):4-13.
范剑勇,莫家伟.城市化模式与经济发展方式转变---兼论城市化的方向选择[J].复旦学报:社会科学版,2013,55(3):65-73.
金宏平、朱雅玲、张倩肖.户籍制度改革与深度城市化:社会福利差距的根源阻碍[J].西北大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2016,46(1):128-133.
龙奋杰、王宁、张艳奇.影响中国城市增长的因素:地级及以上城市的实证检验[J].城市发展研究,2010,17(10):83-86.
李郇,洪国志.户籍制度、资本积累与城市经济增长[J].城市与区域规划研究,2013,(2):63-81.
陆铭.玻璃幕墙下的劳动力流动---制度约束、社会互动与滞后的城市化[J].南方经济,2011,29(6):23-37.
陆铭.为什么要让市场发挥决定性作用---对中国经济发展的纠偏[J].上海交通大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2014,22(2):10-14.
陆万军,张彬斌.分配失衡与发展陷阱:经验事实及成因探讨[J].经济学家,2014,(7):93-101.
陆万军,张彬斌.户籍门槛、发展型政府与人口城镇化政策---基于大中城市面板数据的经验研究[J].南方经济,2016,(2):28-42.
彭希哲、万芊、黄苏萍.积分权益制:兼顾户籍改革多重目标的普惠型制度选择[J].人口与经济,2014,(1):28-36.
万广华,朱翠萍.中国城市化面临的问题与思考:文献综述[J].世界经济文汇,2010,(6):106-116.
吴开亚、张力、陈筱.户籍改革进程的障碍:基于城市落户门槛的分析[J].中国人口科学,2010,(1):66-74.
许晓明.大城市不应成为户籍开放的“钉子户”[J].中国新闻周刊,2009,(39):8-8.
颜咏华,郭志仪.中国人口流动迁移对城市化进程影响的实证分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,(10):103-110.
邹一南,李爱民.户籍管制、城市规模与城市发展[J].当代经济研究,2013,(9):53-60.
Afridi,F.,S.X.Li and Y.Ren,2012,“Social Identity and Inequality:The Impact of China’s Hukou System,”Journal of Public Economics,123:17-29.
Au,C.C.and J.V.Henderson,2002,“How Migration Restrictions Limit Agglomeration and Productivity in China,”Journal of Development Economics,80(2),pp.350-388.
Bosker,M.,S.Brakman,H.Garretsen and M.Schramm,2012,“Relaxing Hukou:Increased Labor Mobility and China’s Economic Geography,”Journal of Urban Economics,72(2-3),pp.252-266.
Fotheringham,A.S.,C.Brunsdon and M.Charlton,2004,“Geographically Weighted Regression:The Analysis of Spatially Varying Relationships,”American Journal of Agricultural Economics,86(86),pp.554-556.
Gilbert,A.,and J.Chakraborty,2011,“Using Geographically Weighted Regression for Environmental Justice Analysis:Cumulative Cancer Risks from Air Toxics in Florida,”Social Science Research,40(1),pp.273-286.
He,C.,T.Chen,X.Mao and Y.Zhou,2016,“Economic Transition,Urbanization and Population Redistribution in China,”Habitat International,(51),pp.39-47.
Wang,S.,C.Fang,H.Ma,Y.Wang and J.Qin.2014,“Spatial Differences and Multi-mechanism of Carbon Footprint Based on GWRModel in Provincial China,”Journal of Geographical Sciences,24(4),pp.612-630.
(1)户籍门槛设定的目的在于有选择的让外来人口落户城市的主城区,因此选择地级市市辖区范围作为本文经验分析的基础具有合理性。
(1)可见,因存在人口的户籍迁出情形,户籍人口变动值通常低估了实际实现了户籍转换的人口数。
(2)城市人口户籍迁出数据指标利用中国“分县市人口统计资料”中的分省统计的“地级市人口机械变动”数据进行推算。
(3)举例说明,durban=urban2010-urban2000,其中,urban2010和urban2000分别表示2010和2000年对应地级市辖区的城市化率;通过差分剔除不随时间变化的遗漏变量的影响,此时得到的方程估计量即被称为一阶差分估计量。