初边界条件改变对四川盆地东部强降水模拟敏感性影响
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摘要
利用WRF(V3.3.1)模式及其同化系统,根据不同地面观测要素同化对模式侧边界条件和初始条件引起的改变设计数值模拟方案,详细分析了WRF模式初始和侧边界条件的改变对四川盆地东部强降水模拟的敏感性影响。结果显示,WRF模式对初始和侧边界条件改变的敏感度均较明显,对地面温度变化的敏感度要高于对地面风场变化的敏感度。相对湿度场、风场和垂直速度场,均体现为高层比低层更敏感,而温度场则体现为低层比高层更敏感。在模拟时段内,侧边界条件的改变对模拟结果带来的不确定性影响随时间的增加逐渐增加,初始条件改变对模拟结果带来的不确定性影响随时间增加而逐渐减小。
By the use of the WRF(V3.3.1) model and the assimilation system,experiments are carried out with the numerical simulation scheme designed on the different boundary and initial conditions with the different assimilated element observation.The sensitivity impact analysis of the WRF model boundary conditions on the simulation of the heavy rainfall happened in the eastern Sichuan Basin is discussed.The results show that the WRF model is sensitive to the change of initial and boundary conditions.The change caused by the assimilation of ground temperature is more sensitive than that caused by the assimilation of the ground wind field.The sensitivities to the upper-level relative humidity,wind,and vertical velocity are bigger than those to the lower-level.During test,the sensitivities to lower temperature and unstable energy are bigger than those to the upper.The sensitivities caused by boundary conditions increase with time.The sensitivities caused by initial conditions decrease with time.
By the use of the WRF(V3.3.1) model and the assimilation system,experiments are carried out with the numerical simulation scheme designed on the different boundary and initial conditions with the different assimilated element observation.The sensitivity impact analysis of the WRF model boundary conditions on the simulation of the heavy rainfall happened in the eastern Sichuan Basin is discussed.The results show that the WRF model is sensitive to the change of initial and boundary conditions.The change caused by the assimilation of ground temperature is more sensitive than that caused by the assimilation of the ground wind field.The sensitivities to the upper-level relative humidity,wind,and vertical velocity are bigger than those to the lower-level.During test,the sensitivities to lower temperature and unstable energy are bigger than those to the upper.The sensitivities caused by boundary conditions increase with time.The sensitivities caused by initial conditions decrease with time.
引文
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[2]龚建东,邱崇践,王强,等.区域四维变分资料同化的数值试验[J].气象学报,1999,57:131-142.
[3]闫敬华,Majewski Detlev.中尺度数值预报模式初边值作用的试验研究[J].热带气象学报,2003,19(4):337-344.
[4]许晓林,徐海明,何金海.初边界条件不确定性对AREM模拟一次华南致洪暴雨的影响[J].南京气象学院学报,2009,32(2):196-205.
[5]黄海波,陈春艳,朱雯娜.WRF模式不同云微物理参数化方案及水平分辨率对降水预报效果的影响[J].气象科技,2011,39(5):529-535.
[6]闫之辉,邓莲堂.WRF模式中的微物理过程及其预报对比试验[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2007,1(6):1-6.
[7]陈炯,王建捷.边界层参数化方案对降水预报的影响[J].应用气象学报,2006,17:11-17.
[8]曾新民,张强.陆面参数的扰动对一次西北暴雨的模拟影响研究[J].气象科学,2009,29(3):291-298.
[9]王秋云,严明良,包云轩,等.基于不同陆面参数化方案的高温天气数值模拟[J].气象科技,2011,39(5):537-543.
[10]党红梅,杜继稳,王式功,等.秦巴山地盛夏连阴雨中的局地强降水数值模拟及诊断分析[J].气象科技,2008,36(5):536-540.
[11]陈磊,沈桐立,徐海明,等.地面加密自动站资料同化和数值模拟[J].气象科学,2011,31(1):24-32.
[12]赵文斌,齐琳琳,何宏让,等.暴雨模拟中多普勒雷达径向速度变分同化的应用[J].气象科技,2010,38(1):37-43.
[13]丁伟钰,万齐林,闷敬华,等.华南地区中尺度模式预报的初值影响分析[J].热带气象学报,2006,22(1):10-17.