摘要
21世纪经济全球化与跨国公司的深入发展，在给世界贸易带来重大推动力的同时也给各国经贸带来诸多不确定因素，使其出现许多新的特点和新的矛盾。新古典贸易理论和新贸易理论没有解释不同经济体（国家或区域）的成本、要素、规模、技术和“钻石”因素等存在差异性的形成原因及机制；新制度经济学则着眼于从制度视角解释经济增长现象，没有重点关注制度变迁与国际贸易竞争优势的关系。同时，从国际贸易的实践发展来看，随着经济、贸易全球化的不断深入与拓展，国际贸易竞争的深度、广度和强度都在发生变化，把国际贸易竞争优势源泉问题的研究推向了更深层面。为此，选择制度创新与国际贸易竞争优势的内在关系进行研究，探寻国际贸易竞争优势的根本源泉，发现各国制度质量差异与国际贸易竞争力差异之间的内在因果联系，揭示制度创新影响国际贸易竞争优势的内在机理与作用路径，无疑具有重要的理论价值与现实意义。
论文在界定制度质量、制度创新、国际贸易竞争优势和国际贸易竞争力等核心概念内涵及分析经济制度体系内在结构与基本功能的基础上，构造了制度质量与国际贸易竞争优势之间的关系模型，从理论推导和数理论证两个视角分别探索了制度创新对国际贸易竞争优势的影响机理与作用路径，构建了全面测评制度质量和国际贸易竞争力的综合计量模型与评价指标体系，选取2004年至2010年33个主要贸易国家的经验数据，计算出制度质量综合指数和国际贸易竞争力综合指数，分别设计多层级结构方程模型和多因素面板数据模型，对制度质量影响国际贸易竞争力的效应进行了多角度、多层面实证检验，最后基于前述研究结果，提出政策建议。
论文的主要创新研究工作如下：
1．开发了系统分析制度质量、制度创新影响国际贸易成本竞争优势、效率竞争优势以及创新竞争优势的理论模型框架，揭示其内生关系：（1）在生产过程的物化成本不变，企业利润最优化策略以及其他条件一定的前提下，出口产品的平均交易成本是制度质量的严格减函数，而当分工规模不变时，制度的改善会减少交易摩擦，从而降低企业单位产品的平均交易成本。这表明，制度创新是国际贸易成本竞争优势的一个重要源泉；（2）当模型中关键参数采用一系列合理的均衡值、且其他条件一定时，生产效率和交易效率是制度质量的严格增函数，制度质量的改善会导致生产效率和交易效率的较大上升，同时可能导致交易成本的较大下降，即制度创新也是国际贸易效率竞争优势的一个重要源泉；（3）当将基础模型扩展到创新团队的研究之中发现，在其他条件一定时，高技术产品的创新团队的分工规模和创新效率是制度质量的严格增函数，即制度质量改善也是国际贸易创新竞争优势的一个重要源泉；（4）在制度质量不同但其他因素完全相同的两国贸易世界中，当分工规模不变时，制度质量较好的国家拥有较低的交易摩擦和更高的分工专业化程度，从而导致制度质量较好的国家会专业化于制度依赖性较强的复杂产品生产和出口，而制度质量较差的国家则会做出相反的选择。表明制度质量差异导致了国家之间比较优势的一个内生结构，由此形成贸易国之间基于制度质量比较优势的贸易模式；（5）当模型推广到开放经济背景下的动态一般均衡框架分析时，在其他因素不变时，制度创新会降低分工中的交易摩擦，提高分工专业化程度，从而增强制度创新国在制度依赖性较强的复杂产品出口中的竞争力，而制度固化国被迫选择制度依赖性较弱的简单产品生产和出口，并可能陷入低价倾销的贸易困境。进而，整个世界在制度质量变化的基础下形成新的国际分工与市场均衡；（6）当控制制度质量时，交易摩擦与分工专业化程度成正向变动关系，因此企业分工规模的扩大会受到交易摩擦的约束，这对于企业选择服务外包或外部市场交易提供了较好的解释。
2．构建了制度质量综合评价指标体系和国际贸易竞争力的综合评价体系。（1）构建了由产权制度、企业制度、市场制度、政府管理制度和涉外经贸制度5个层级指标组成的制度质量综合评价指标体系，设计了全面度量制度质量的综合评价模型与方法，弥补了以往使用局部或个别制度指标缺乏系统性等不足；（2）首次把反映出口竞争新优势的核心指标纳入了国际贸易综合竞争力的统一测评框架，构建了由出口结构、出口质量、出口效率、出口创新、出口效益和出口规模6个方面指标组成的国际贸易竞争力综合评价指标体系，设计了全面度量国际贸易竞争力的综合评价模型与方法，突破了以往文献偏重于使用出口规模、市场占有率等单一指标衡量国际贸易竞争力的局限性。
3．系统分析了多层级制度体系对国际贸易综合竞争力的影响效应，得出了新的结论。（1）构造结构方程模型，检验了多层级结构的经济制度体系对国际贸易综合竞争力的影响效应，发现不同层级制度对国际贸易综合竞争力的影响差异：产权制度对出口竞争力的影响较强，涉外经贸制度的影响较弱，其他层级制度介于二者之间；各层级制度对出口规模的综合影响最强，然后依次是出口创新、出口效率、出口结构和出口质量，而对出口盈余的综合影响最弱。这些结论弥补了以往文献使用单一制度指标进行实证分析的不足；（2）将主流贸易理论论及的主要因素与制度变量纳入统一的多因素面板数据模型框架进行实证辨析，发现上述诸元对各国贸易综合竞争力的影响存在差异，其中制度质量和要素成本差异对开放度水平高的国家出口竞争力的正向影响较强，对开放水平低的国家的促进作用较弱；自然资源对开放水平低的国家出口竞争力的正向影响较强，但对开放水平高的国家有抑制作用；技术因素和规模经济对两类国家的促进作用都较弱，但对开放水平低的国家的促进作用更弱。总体上看，实证结果支持了前文提出的理论假说。
以上研究从理论模型与实证检验双重视角为新制度经济学在国际贸易学领域的应用提供了新的论证和支持，不仅扩展了新制度经济学的应用领域，而且揭示了国际贸易竞争优势的新源泉，弥补了传统贸易理论的不足，为各国出口竞争力的差异及其增强提供新的解释和依据，从而丰富了国际贸易竞争优势理论。
In the21stcentury, globalization and international corporations are pushing theworld economy into an ever-fast growing and complicated situation. Neo-classicalTrade Theory and New Trade Theory fail to explain the formation mechanism of thedifferences in cost, factor scale, technologies and diamond factor for disparateeconomic entities. Neo-institutional Economics lay emphasis on interpretingeconomic growth institutionally, while the relationship between institutional changeand competitive edge in international trade is overlooked. What’s more, the depth,range and intensity of international trade are changing from time to time, so thesource of competitive edge in international trade becomes a vital point to be inquired.For this purpose, this paper elects the relation between variation of institutionalquality and discrepancy of competitive edge in international trade as the theme of theresearch, hoping to identify the ultimate source of competitive edge in internationaltrade and the causal connection between institutional quality’s discrepancy anddifference of competitive edge in international trade. It is of significant theoreticaland practical meaning to probe into disclosing the internal mechanism and acting pathof how the institutional innovation may affect the competitive edge in internationaltrade.
On the basis of both defining the concept of institutional quality, institutionalinnovation, competitive edge in international trade and international tradecompetitiveness and analyzing the internal structure and basic functions of theeconomic system architecture, the paper constructs a relational model involvesinstitutional quality and international trade competitive advantage to explore theimpact mechanism and pathway of institutional quality and innovation oninternational trade’ competitive advantage from two perspectives of theoreticalderivation and mathematical proof respectively, and builds a comprehensiveeconometric model and evaluation index system to evaluate the institutional qualityand international trade competitiveness in the round. By selecting empirical data from33major trading countries dating from2004to2010, the paper calculates thecomposite index of institutional quality and international trade competitiveness. Astructural equation model and a multivariate panel data model are designed so as tomake a multi-angel and multi-level empirical test about the impact of institutional quality on international trade competitiveness. Finally, according to the theoreticalanalysis and empirical results, preliminary ideas are proposed.
1. The paper creates a framework of theoretical model, which can systematicallyanalyze the influences of institutional quality and institutional innovation oncompetitive advantages in cost of international trade, efficiency and innovation andreveal its endogenous relationship:(1) On the premise of fixed physical and chemicalcosts in the production process, corporations’ profit optimization strategies and otherunchanged conditions, the average transaction cost of export products is a strictlydecreasing function on institutional quality. Under the same division scale, the systemimprovement would reduce transaction friction, thus reducing the average transactioncosts per unit of product, which suggests that institutional innovation is an importantsource on competitive advantage in the cost of international trade.(2) when the keyparameters in the model using a range of reasonable the equilibrium value, theimprovement on institutional quality,will lead to greater production efficiency andincreased trade efficiency, meanwhile, transaction costs reduced greatly, whichshows that institutional innovation is also an important source on competitiveadvantage in international trade efficiency.(3) When the basic model is extended tothe research of an innovative team found that, under certain other conditions, divisionscale and innovative effects of high-tech products are a strictly increasing function ofinstitutional quality, which shows that institutional innovation is also an importantsource on competitive advantage in international trade innovation.(4）In a bilateraltrade world where institutional quality is different while other factors identical, whenthe division scale is constant, the country with better institutional quality has a lowertrading friction and higher degree on division of labor specialization and thus,specializes in producing and exporting complex products which have strongerdependence on system. And another country with worse institutional quality willmake the opposite choice. That Indicates the difference in institutional quality leadsto an endogenous structure between countries having comparative advantages, thus,forming trade pattern based on comparative advantages of institutional qualitybetween trading countries.(5) When the model is extended to a dynamic generalequilibrium framework analysis under the context of an open economy with constantother factors, institutional innovation will reduce trading friction of division,improve the specialization in division of labor, thereby enhance competitiveness ofexporting complex products which have stronger dependence on system insystem-innovative country. While the country with curing system is forced to choose simple production and exports which are weaker system-dependent and mayfall into dumping with low prices. Furthermore, the whole world, on the basis ofchanges in institutional quality, forms a new international division of labor andmarket equilibrium.(6) When institutional quality is constant, the transaction frictionand specialization in division of labor are into a positive relationship. So, with theexpansion on division scale, companies will be constrained by trade friction, whichprovides a better explanation why companies choose outsourcing or external markettransactions.
2. The paper structures comprehensive evaluation index systems of institutionalquality and competitiveness on international trade.(1) It formulates a comprehensiveevaluation index system of institutional quality that is consisted of property system,enterprise system, market system, government management system and foreigneconomic and trade system. It designs a comprehensive evaluation model and methodaim at measuring institutional quality overall, which overcomes the shortages ofprevious institutional evaluating indexes that are merely single or partial institutionalindicators.(2) The dissertation firstly applies core indicators which reflect newcompetitive advantage of export to the unified evaluation framework oncomprehensive competitiveness of international trade, and structures a comprehensiveevaluation index system of competitiveness on international trade, which consists ofexport structure, export quality, export efficiency, export innovation, export benefitand export scale. And it designs a comprehensive evaluation model and method aim atmeasuring competitiveness of international trade overall and successfully overcomesthe limitation of measuring international trade’s competitiveness that some singleindicators such as export scale and market share stressed on previous papers.
3. The dissertation creates a positivism paradigm to describe in what way themulti-level institutional system would influences the comprehensive competitivenessin International trade.(1) The dissertation designs a multi-level structure equationmodel to empirically test the effect of economic institutional system on internationaltrade competitiveness. The different influence of different hierarchy are as follows: asfor the export competitiveness, the influence of property rights system is strong, theinfluence of foreign trade and economic cooperation system is weak, and the otherhierarchy’s influence is of moderate level; as for the export scale, the comprehensiveinfluence of hierarchy is the strongest, followed by export innovation, exportefficiency, export structure, export quality and export surplus. These results make upthe shortage of previous literature using a single system of indexes in empirical analysis;(2) The paper takes principal factors and institutional variables into themulti-factor panel data model for empirical analysis and the results imply that theinfluence of the above factors on trade competitiveness is different: as for thosehighly opened countries, the influence of different institutional quality and factorscost on export competitiveness is strong; as for those less opened countries, theinfluence of natural sources is strong, while that of technological disparity and scaledisparity is weak，which go in line with the theoretical hypothesis above.
Not only do the above research provides demonstration and support for theapplication of New Institutional Economics to international trade, it also reveals thenew source of enhancing the export competitiveness from perspectives of institutionalquality and institutional innovation. It expands the research field of the NewInstitutional Economics, compensates the shortage of traditional theory and providesa new theoretical interpretation and evidence for the difference and enhancement ofexport competitiveness among countries. As a result, the theoretical system isenriched.
引文
①亚当．斯密明确指出，“于个别家庭为得策者，于国家亦不致为失策”，一个国家也要把本国生产的费用和向国外购买的费用加以比较，以便决定是自己生产还是从国外进口。因此，各国都应生产具有绝对成本优势的产品，然后通过国际交换，购进成本劣势的产品而获利。在斯密看来，分工的程度，却要受到市场规模，即“市场广狭的限制”。由于历史的局限,斯密未能看到劳动分工的发展与市场容量的扩大之间具有相互促进的作用。同样遗憾的是，斯密也没有把工场内部的劳动分工与不同行业间的社会分工区分开来，后来分别由杨小凯和马克思所完善和发展。参见亚当．斯密.国民财富的性质和原因的研究(下卷)[M]．北京：商务印书馆，1972:28.
②经笔者计算，葡萄牙从该项贸易中的获利总额是英国的3倍多。根据李嘉图模型，为简便起见，假定葡、英两国交易前产品的总产值为4个单位（与总产量相同），劳动总成本占交易前产品总产值的90%，则总成本为4×0.9=3.6个单位，且两国的单位劳动成本相同，即单位劳动的工资均等于0.00923
（3.6÷390），双方按1∶1的比例进行交换，则葡萄牙从该项贸易中的获利总额为：2.125－（0.00923×170）=0.5559个单位，占两国贸易总利润（4.325－3.6=0.725）的76.67%（0.5559÷0.725）；英国从该项贸易中的获利总额为：2.2－（0.00923×220）=0.1694个单位，仅占两国贸易总利润的23.36%。
①林毅夫认为制度可以被理解为社会中个人遵循的一套行为规则（参见文献[136]）。袁庆明认为，制度无非是约束和规范个人行为的各种规则与约束（参见文献[137]）。
②拉坦明确认为：“制度概念包括组织”（参见文献[138]）。
①柯武刚、史漫飞认为，制度能够使复杂的人际交往过程变得更易理解和更可预见，使人们得以免于面对不愉快的意外和他们不能恰当地处理的情形，有助于缓解个人间和群体间的冲突，从而协调不同个人之间的关系。制度还能够保护各种个人自主领域，使其免受外部不恰当干预，例如免受其他掌权者的干预。参见柯武刚、史漫飞：制度经济学[M].北京：商务印书馆，2000.142～146.
①该所从1986年起每年均发表的《全球经济自由度指数》研究报告。此外透明度指数
②CEPII,“The Deuelopment of Intra-uersus Inter-industry Trade Flows Inside the EU Due to the Internal Marketprogramme”,paris:Interim report,september1995.
①WEF Website：http://www.weforum.org.
①Hallak,J.C. and P. Schoott.“Estimating Cross-Country Diffrences in Product Quality.[J]. The Quarterly
Journal of Economics,2011,126(1):417-474..
②Fisher Index费雪尔指数又称为费雪尔理想指数(Fisher`S Ideal Index Number)，是美国统计学家Irving
Fisher于1911年提出的;费雪指数是拉氏指数和派氏指数的几何平均数，主要用于对指数公式的测验，以
及调和拉氏与派氏两种指数的矛盾(Weisstein，2011)，极少的综合指数能够通过费雪尔提出的测验标
准，而费雪尔提出几何平均的指数公式可以通过前两项测验，因此费雪尔将其称为理想公式(卢小广，
2006)。费雪尔指数计算公式为：I P=∑P1Q0/∑P0Q0×∑P1Q1/∑P0Q1，参见Irving Fisher(1911)。
①这些显变量本质上就是在前述章节中设计的指标体系。
②尽管利用结构方程模型来研究经济问题还没有让多数人掌握，但是由于计算机的发展和行为经济学的兴起，对结构方程模型的应用一定会起到推动作用。
①结构方程模型可分为恰好识别结构模型、识别不足结构模型、过度识别结构模型。
②Joreskog&Sorbom(1993)将线性结构方程模型的参数估计方法概括为以下六种：①工具变量（IV，instrumental variable）；②极大似然估计法（ML，Maximum Likelihood）；③无加权最小二乘法（ULS，unweighted least squares）；④广义最小二乘法（GLS，generalized least squares）；⑤两阶段最小二乘法（TSLS，two-stage least squares）；⑥一般加权最小二乘法（WLS，generally weighted least squares）。
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