摘要
长期以来,中国居民储蓄持续超常增长,如何破解中国式高储蓄率困境成为各界广泛关注的问题。由于不确定性是转型期间的常态,所以在研究中国居民储蓄的文献中预防性储蓄理论备受关注。虽然大多数文献都已证实居民存在预防性储蓄行为,但是对于城乡居民预防性储蓄动机孰强孰弱、预防性储蓄是否是导致城乡居民财富积累的主要原因、影响居民预防性储蓄的主要因素是什么等问题,我们还并不完全明了。因此,在已有文献的基础上,本文以《中国居民预防性储蓄研究》为题,重点研究了上述三个问题。各章节的具体内容如下：
第1章为绪论部分,主要介绍了文章的研究背景与意义、文章的研究思路与框架、以及文章的创新之处。
第2章为文献综述部分,对预防性储蓄理论的形成和发展做了一个回顾。重点从预防性储蓄动机存在条件、预防性储蓄动机的检验、预防性储蓄对居民储蓄的解释力和不确定性因素的分解等方面分别对国内外文献进行了归纳和梳理,并指出在研究中国居民预防性储蓄时需要进一步深化的研究方向,进而引出本文的主要研究任务。
第3章对预防性储蓄理论做了一个简要介绍。首先,对不确定性概念进行了阐述,并界定了不确定性一词在本文中的基本内涵。然后,对不确定性条件下消费者的消费决策行为作了简单介绍,并将期望效用最大化理论作为研究不确定性条件下消费者决策行为的理论基础。在此基础上,通过数学推理和几何图形来说明了不确定性对于消费者储蓄决策的影响。最后,分析了转型期间我国城乡居民面临的不确定性现状,指出预防性储蓄理论在中国具有潜在的适用性。
第4章是对城乡居民预防性储蓄动机的检验。与大多数文献基于相对谨慎系数的分析不同,本文认为绝对谨慎系数才是检验消费者预防性储蓄动机强度的指标,尤其是在比较不同消费者之间预防性储蓄动机强弱时更是如此。因此,本文主要是在CARA型效用函数假定下基于2000-2010年省级面板数据检验了中国城乡居民的预防性储蓄动机,并对比了城乡居民预防性储蓄动机的强弱。结果发现,城乡居民均存在显著的预防性储蓄动机,并且农村居民的预防性储蓄动机更强,大约是城市居民的1.5倍。需要明确的是,虽然本章经验结果认为中国城乡居民存在着预防性储蓄动机,但是这并不意味着预防性储蓄就是导致中国城乡居民高储蓄的主要原因。而且,与中国城乡居民是否存在预防性储蓄动机相比,我们更加关心中国城乡居民的预防性储蓄行为引起了多少预防性财富积累。
第5章则在统一的理论框架和相同时期的样本数据下进一步研究了预防性储蓄到底在多大程度上解释了中国城乡居民的财富积累。根据消费者的跨期消费决策模型求解出消费者在不确定性条件下的预防性财富积累函数,然后结合现实情况和经济理论对财富积累函数中的各项参数进行赋值,进而得到城乡居民人均预防性财富的估计值和预防性财富在城乡居民总财富中的比重。根据本章的估算,我们认为农村居民的人均预防性财富持有量大约为3千元,占人均金融财产的34%左右；城市居民的人均预防性财富为9千元,占人均金融财产的20%左右。因此,不管是从城乡居民人均持有的预防性财富绝对量来看,还是从预防性财富占金融财产的相对比重来看,结论都认为预防性储蓄是导致中国城乡居民消费不足的重要原因之一。
第6章从预防性储蓄动机和不确定性两个方面研究了影响中国居民预防性财富积累的主要因素。首先,通过检验不同收入水平的居民的预防性储蓄动机,本文发现消费者的预防性储蓄动机强弱与其收入水平相关,收入水平越高的居民的预防性储蓄动机强度越弱。其次,利用2003年第1季度至2012年第3季度的时间序列数据检验了投资收益不确定性对于城市居民预防性储蓄的影响,结果发现消费者确实对投资收益不确定性较为敏感,且相较于股市,利率市场的不确定性对消费者的预防性储蓄动机有着更强的促进作用。具体而言,同样强度的收益率风险增加所引起的消费者的人均消费支出增长量的波动在利率市场下大约为股票市场的40倍。最后,根据2000-2010年城市居民分类消费支出的省级面板数据检验了消费者对于各种不确定性因素的谨慎程度,结果发现城市居民的消费支出对于各项支出不确定性的敏感程度要大于其对收入不确定性的敏感程度,且在各项支出不确定性因素中,医疗保健支出不确定性和居住消费支出不确定性对于消费者储蓄行为的影响最为显著。
第7章提出了降低城乡居民预防性储蓄的一些政策建议。根据前文的计量结果,我们认为可以从居民收入、投资收益、财产安全和社会保障四个方面入手弱化居民的预防性储蓄需求。在制定具体的方案时,要认识到城乡居民之间又各自具有其特殊性。对于城市居民,预防性储蓄动机相对较弱,其预防性财富积累主要是由于居民所面临的不确定性较大引起的,因此我们主要是通过各种措施来降低其不确定性；对于农村居民,不仅面临着较大的不确定性,而且由于收入水平较低,其预防性储蓄动机较强,所以既要降低其面临的不确定性,还要通过提高收入水平降低其预防性储蓄动机强度。
最后一章总结了本文的主要研究结论和不足之处,指出了未来的研究方向。
通过对中国城乡居民预防性储蓄行为的实证研究,本文得出以下结论：中国城乡居民持有较多的预防性储蓄是我国居民消费需求不足的重要原因,我们应该通过降低城乡居民所面临的劳动收入、投资收益、教育支出、住房支出、医疗支出等方面的不确定性因素来弱化其预防性储蓄需求。虽然城市居民的预防性储蓄水平更高,但是这并不意味着政府公共政策应当向城镇居民倾斜。必须注意到,在中国特有的城乡二元结构下,农村居民的绝对收入水平和消费水平仍远远低于城市居民,其预防性储蓄动机更强,预防性储蓄占总储蓄的比重也更高。因此,政府应当进一步完善农村社会保障体系,打破城乡二元结构,推进城镇化建设,提高农村居民的消费水平,消除城乡差异。这不仅将释放大量城乡潜在的消费需求,有利于解决长期困扰我国的居民储蓄超常增长的问题,也有利于经济发展和社会稳定。
For a long time, Chinese residents' savings have been increasing abnormally, thus how to solve China's high savings rate has become a wide public concern. Since uncertainty is a norm during the transformation period, the precautionary saving theory has got enormous attention in literatures studying Chinese residents' savings. Although residents'precautionary saving behavior is confirmed in most literatures, many issues remain unknown, for example, of the rural and urban precautionary saving motivation which is stronger; whether the precautionary savings is the main reason that leads to rural and urban wealth accumulation and what are the main factors influencing the precautionary savings are still to be learned. Therefore, based on the existing literatures, this paper titled as "Research on the Chinese Residents' Precautionary Savings" focuses on the above three issues. The detailed contents of all chapters are as follows.
Chapter I is the preface which mainly introduces the study background and significance, the study design and framework, as well as the innovation.
Chapter II is the literature review which reviews the formation and development of precautionary saving theory. Focusing on the existence condition of precautionary saving motivation, the test of precautionary saving motivation, the importance of precautionary savings and the decomposition of uncertainties, this chapter summarizes literatures home and abroad and pointes out the further study area, introducing this paper's main study task.
Chapter III briefly introduces precautionary saving theory. Beginning with the interpretation of the basic concept of "uncertainties" and its basic meaning in this paper, this chapter gives a brief introduction to consumer's consumption decision-making behavior under uncertain conditions with the expected utility maximization theory as its theory basis, on which mathematical inference and geometric graphs are adopted to illustrate the influence of uncertainties bring to consumers' savings decision.In the end, the chapter analyzes the current situation of Chinese urban and rural residents' are being faced with more and more uncertainties during the transformation period and indicates the potential application of precautionary saving theory in China.
Chapter IV deals with the test of urban and rural residents' precautionary saving motivation. Different from most literatures based on the analysis of the coefficient of relative prudence, this paper takes the coefficient of absolute prudence as the standard to test the intensity of consumer precautionary saving motivation, especially in the comparison of different consumers' precautionary saving motivation intensity. Thus, this paper based on the2000-2010provincial panel data tests Chinese urban and rural residents' precautionary saving motivation under the CARA utility function assumption and compares urban and rural residents'precautionary saving motivation intensity. The result shows that both urban and rural residents have obvious precautionary saving motivation and the rural residents'motivation is more intense, about1.5times that of urban citizens. What must be made clear is that although the test confirms the urban and rural residents' precautionary saving motivation, precautionary savings is not necessarily the main reason for Chinese high savings. Therefore, compared with whether there exists precautionary saving motivation for Chinese residents, what this paper cares more about is how much precautionary wealth has been accumulated by their precautionary saving behavior.
Chapter V further studies to what degree precautionary savings can explain urban and rural residents'wealth accumulation under a unified theory framework and the same period's sample data. According to consumers' intertemporal consumption decisions model, consumers'precautionary savings accumulation function under uncertainties can be calculated. Combined with the reality and economic theories, various parameters in wealth accumulation function can be assigned, resulting in the value of urban and rural residents'precautionary wealth per capita and the percentage of precautionary savings in their whole wealth. The estimation in this chapter shows that rural residents' precautionary wealth per capita is about￥3000, taking a34%percentage of per capita financial property; for urban citizens, per capita precautionary wealth is￥9000, being20%of per capita financial property. Therefore, no matter from the absolute quality of urban and rural residents' per capita precautionary wealth and the percentage of precautionary wealth in financial property, this chapter concludes that precautionary savings is one of the significant reasons leading to Chinese urban and rural residents' underconsumption.
Chapter Ⅵ explores the main factors influencing Chinese residents' precautionary wealth accumulation from the aspects of precautionary saving motivation and uncertainties. Firstly, through the test of the precautionary saving motivation of residents with different income levels, this chapter finds out that the intensity of consumers' precautionary saving motivation is connected with their income level---residents with higher income have a weaker precautionary saving motivation. Then using the time series data of the first quarter of2013to the third quarter of2012, the chapter tests the influence of investment yield uncertainty on urban citizens' precautionary savings and confirms that consumers are sensitive to investment yield uncertainty, and compared with the stock market, the interest market's uncertainties more facilitate consumer precautionary saving motivation. Specifically speaking, if increasing the same size of yield rate risk in the interest rate market and the stock market, the fluctuation of incremental consumption expenditures caused by the risk in the interest rate market is nearly40times that of the latter one. In the end, according to the provincial panel data of urban citizens' classified consumption expenditure, consumers' prudence to different uncertainties is tested, showing that urban residents'consumption expenditure is more sensitive to the uncertainty of various expenditures than that of their revenue, and among various expenditure uncertainties, medical and housing expenditure uncertainties affect most obviously their saving behavior.
Chapter Ⅷ proposes some policy suggestions for reducing urban and rural residents'precautionary savings. According to the previous empirical results, the author holds the view that residents' precautionary savings demand can be weakened from four aspects like resident's revenue, investment yield, asset safety and social insurance. When enacting specific programs, the particularity of urban and rural residents should be noticed. For urban residents, precautionary saving motivation is relatively weaker and their precautionary wealth accumulation is due to the intense uncertainties they are faced with, thus, various measures will be taken to lower the uncertainties; while for the rural residents, due to not only intense uncertainties but also lower income level, their precautionary saving motivation is more intense, so that besides lowering the uncertainties, their revenue should be increased to weaken their precautionary saving motivation.
The last chapter summarizes this thesis' main study results and also the shortages, as well as future study area.
Through the empirical study of Chinese urban and rural residents' precautionary saving behavior, this thesis concludes that Chinese residents' high precautionary savings is the significant reason for China's consumption demand shortage, and by weakening the uncertainties they face in aspects of labor revenue, investment yield, education expenditure, housing expenditure, medical expenditure, etc., their precautionary saving demand can be weakened. Although urban citizens have a higher precautionary savings level, it doesn't mean that governments' common policy is necessary to slide to urban residents. What must be paid attention to is that under Chinese unique urban-rural dual structure, rural residents'absolute income and consumption are still far below that of urban residents, and they have more intense precautionary saving motivation and a higher precautionary savings percentage. As a result, the government should further perfect rural social insurance system, break the dual structure, push the urbanization construction, develop rural residents'consumption, as well as dismiss urban and rural divergence, which will not only release much consumption demand potential, but also contribute to the solving of the long puzzling residents' saving overdevelopment, as well as benefit economic development and social stability.
引文
① 专访诺贝尔经济学奖得主詹姆斯·莫里斯：中国更根本的问题是消费过低而不是投资过高。网址：http://www.21cbh.com/HTML/2011-6-15/yNMDAwMDI0NDUyNQ.html,访问时间：2014年2月20日。
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