摘要
2010年我国人均GDP突破4000美元,进入中等偏上收入国家行列,经济发展可谓取得了辉煌的成就,但是,也遇到了经济发展方式转变的难题,过去的发展方式难以为继。在经济发展方式转变中,核心的一项内容则是实现需求结构的协调。近年来,受国际金融危机的影响,我国出口增速不断下滑,再加上国际经济环境的不确定性,外需消化我国产品的能力不容乐观,实现经济可持续发展的重心必然要转移到国内需求。然而,我国的现实情况则是：投资需求在各种因素的影响下一直处于过剩状态,消费需求比例却低于50%,特别是居民消费需求比例更低。面对产能过剩与低收入群体嗷嗷待哺并存的现实,我国不得不把扩大内需的重点放在居民消费需求上。进一步来说,有效扩大内需,提高居民消费需求不仅是转变经济发展方式的形势所迫,也是经济发展的根本目的。但是,居民收入水平提高缓慢、收入差距过大以及公共产品和服务提供严重的非均等化阻碍着居民消费扩大。从治理的角度来看,平衡收入分配是在现有的生产能力不变基础上的劳资关系调整和收入差距缩小,这是短期迫切需要解决的问题,三十多年的改革开放,我国基本完成了产成品市场的市场化改革,随着劳动力市场、资本市场、土地市场改革的推进,劳动者就会享有平等的收入机会,无论是劳资分配关系问题还是收入差距问题将会逐步得到解决。当然,要素市场化改革推进更需要借助公共服务的力量,公共服务的均等化必然会加大对低收入群体的教育、医疗、培训等等的投入,必然会提升国民素质,从而对促进居民消费有长期效应,同时随着社会保障投入,居民消费顾虑也会减弱,也能促进短期消费。
因此,本文首先对我国的需求结构演化做了简要分析,通过国际比较和文献分析初步界定了我国居民消费率的不合理性。其次,依据现实判断出问题的症结在于收入分配和公共支出,并且分析了二者对消费的传导机制。第三,纳入相关变量推导了消费增长率理论模型,然后结合我国现实情况提出了实证研究命题,分析了收入分配(包括收入差距和居民收入占GDP比重)和公共支出对居民消费(以居民消费率表示)的影响,为扩大居民消费需求提供理论支撑和经验证据,最后,为提高居民消费实现需求结构调整提供了政策建议。
具体来讲,在理论研究上,为贴近我国经济发展不平衡的现实,本文把消费者按照收入划分为高、低收入群体,通过动态最优化过程,同时纳入收入差距和公共支出两个变量推导出了居民消费增长率模型。理论上分析了收入差距和公共支出改变对高、低收入居民消费的影响以及公共服务均等化程度在其中扮演的重要作用。结论是：整体上表现为,缩小收入差距会促进较低收入者消费,同时,也会抑制高收入者消费；公共支出对高收入者消费起到了促进作用,对低收入者则相反；公共服务均等化程度对以上两种影响无论是在质和量上都起到了决定性作用。依据上述理论模型和现实情况,为实证分析提出了五个主要研究命题,命题一,收入差距扩大在经济发展不同阶段对居民消费会有不同影响；命题二,收入差距扩大在我国不同地区对居民消费影响会有不同表现；命题三,整体来看,各类公共支出对居民消费会产生不同效应；命题四,分税制改革前后,各类公共支出对居民消费会产生不同效应；命题五,民生政策改革前后,各类公共支出对居民消费会产生不同效应。接着,通过计量经济学的理论分析方法建立相应的实证模型,主要包括回归和ARMA组合模型、动态面板模型、结构向量自回归模型、有序响应模型以及状态空间模型等,检验了上述命题,定量分析了改革开放以来我国经济发展的整个过程中、分税制改革前后和民生政策改革前后,收入分配和各类公共支出对整体居民消费以及区域居民消费的影响。在研究公共支出对居民消费影响时还估计了“十一五”期间我国公共支出的效率,进一步考察了我国公共支出存在问题的主要原因。实证研究得出的主要结论为：整体上来看,我国城乡收入差距、行业收入差距以及区域收入差距对居民消费都有显著的负向影响；基础设施公共投资当期支出和教育医疗等有益品公共支出对居民消费有挤出效应,行政管理费用支出和基础设施投资支出的滞后一期对居民消费有一定的挤入效应,分税制改革与民生政策改革的整体效果是抑制了居民消费；公共支出通过抑制城镇化进程进而抑制了我国居民的消费。
实证分析之后,通过脉冲响应函数分析了收入、公共支出以及城镇化冲击对居民消费的影响。最后,主要结合实地调研资料展示了我国城乡居民的实际收支状况和收入来源,而且以山东省和天津市为例特别分析了我国低收入群体(主要是农民)对公共服务(教育、培训、医疗和养老等)的需求状况和城镇化进程中转移的劳动力实际需求状况,依据实际需求状况给出了政策建议。
China's per capita GDP successfully break through$4000, into the middle income country in2010, economic development has made brilliant achievements, but encountered the problem of changing the mode of economic development, it is difficult to rely on the past development path. The transformation of economic development mode contains three specific contents, among them the core one is to achieve the coordination of demand structure. In recent years, by the international financial crisis, China's export growth decline, coupled with the uncertainty of the international economic environment, The external purchasing power is not optimistic, center of gravity to achieve sustainable economic development is bound to be transferred to the domestic demand. However, our country's reality is:the investment demand has been in surplus under the influence of various factors, consumption demand proportion is less than50%, especially private demand has lower rates. Faced with reality that overcapacity coexists with the cry piteously of low-income groups for food, China had to put the focus of expanding domestic demand in private demand. Further, effectively expanding domestic demand, increasing private demand is not only forced by the transformation of the mode of economic development situation, but also the fundamental purpose of economic development. Unfortunately, income levels of residents increase slowly, the income gap is too large and public products and services are provided unequally cause the consumption rate has been falling in china. From the perspective of governance, balancing the distribution of income is the labor-capital distribution relations adjustment and narrowing income gap on the basis of the existing production capacity unchanged, which is urgently needed to solve in short period, thirty years of reform and opening up, China has basically completed the market reform in product market, with the labor market, capital market and land market reform advancement, workers will enjoy equal opportunities for income, the labor-capital distribution relations and the income gap problem will be solved step by step. At the same time, elements market reform required more power from the public service, equalization of public services will increase investment on education, health care and training and so on, to low income groups, will enhance the quality of the nation, thus increasing the income level of residents, of course, this is a long-term process, but also to improve the social security investment, eliminate private concerns, and have also short-term effect.
Therefore, firstly, this paper did a brief analysis to the evolution of our demand structure, through the analysis of international comparison and document defines primarily the unreasonable consumption rate in china. Secondly, finding the crux of the problem lies in the distribution of income and expenditure on the basis of the reality, and analyzes the conduction mechanism from two to consumption. Thirdly, establishing consumption growth rate model including the related variables, then combining with China's actual situation proposed empirical research propositions and did empirical analysis effect of the income distribution (including the income gap and income accounts for the proportion of GDP) and public expenditure on consumption (expressed by the residents consumption rate), objective is to provide theory support and empirical evidence for expanding private demand and realize China's demand structure adjustment through the systemic analysis.
Specifically, in theory, considering unbalanced reality of our country economy development, the consumer is divided into high and low income groups in accordance with revenue, through the dynamic optimization process, at the same time absorbing two variables (the income gap and the public expenditure) to derive the consumption growth rate model. Theoretically did qualitative analysis on the income gap influence on high, low income residents consumption, and public expenditure influence on residents consumption. Conclusion:the overall performance, narrowing the income gap will promote low earners consumption, at the same time, also can inhibit high earners consumption; public expenditure play a positive role on high earners consumption, for the low earners is the opposite; public service equal degree to the above two kinds of effect played a decisive role both on quality and quantity.
Based on the analysis of the mathematical model and the experience, put forward five main hypotheses for empirical research, hypothesis one, widening income gap in different stages of economic development will have different effects on the resident consumption; hypothesis two, widening income gap in different regions of China have different effects on consumption; hypothesis three, overall, all kinds of public expenditure will produce different effect on consumption; hypothesis four, before and after the reform of the tax system, all kinds of public expenditure will produce different effect on consumption; hypothesis five, before and after the people's livelihood policy reform, public expenditure will produce different effect on consumption. Then, through econometric analysis method of empirical model established, including regression and ARMA combination model, dynamic panel model, the structural vector auto-regression model, ordered response model and state space model, to test the theoretical assumption, do the quantitative analysis of the whole process of China's economic development since reform and opening up and income distribution and public expenditure on consumption and regional consumption before and after reform of the tax system and policy reform of people's livelihood. The focus on effect of public expenditure on consumption, not only analyzes the effect of public expenditure on consumption, but also estimated the efficiency of public expenditure of our country during "eleven five", further analyzes the main reasons of China's public expenditure problems. The main conclusions of the empirical study:on the whole, the income gap between urban and rural areas in China, the income gap between the industry and regional income gap have a significant negative impact on residents consumption; public investment in infrastructure, education of current expenditure and medical beneficial product public expenditure have extrusion effect on consumption, the administrative expenditure and infrastructure investment expenditure lagged one period have crowding-in effect on residents consumption, the overall effect of tax-sharing system reform policy and the reform of people's livelihood is to inhibit the consumption; Public expenditure crowded-out the consumption of Chinese residents through inhibition of the process of urbanization.
After the empirical analysis, through the impulse response function analyzed the influence of income, public spending and urbanization impact on private consumption. Finally, showing the actual balance of payments and the main source of income of China's urban and rural residents of combined with field survey data, especially taking Shandong province and Tianjin city as an example, analyzed actual demand of low income group (mainly farmers) and transferring labor in the process of urbanization on public services (education, training, medical and pension), and gives policy recommendations according to the actual demand status.
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